EUR/USD current read

EUR650

EUR651

EUR652

 

3 peaks and a domed house

EUR643


 

EUR617

EUR618

EUR619


You’ve got 4 different time frames’ (different types of traders) heads lined up in a narrow band.

Last D head: 1.2546

Last 4H head: 1.2527

Last 1H head: 1.2526

Last 30m head: 1.2499

How many buy stops (buy to open & buy to close) would trigger if the price was driven above 1.2560?


Imagine for a second that you are a blind believer of E.W. principles, such as Wave 4 cannot penetrate Wave 1.

EUR613

You are going in short up to the arrow, and placing your stops nearby. If that stop was within 15-20 pips of your entry, you were probably knocked out for a loss by the MMs immediately.

Now, if that down move was merely a Wave 1, and we are in Wave 3 to the downside… How bad would you feel about that almost perfect short entry upon seeing the gap down?


If you were a market maker and still had longs you wanted to get rid of, what would you do?

I would run the stops of people currently short, that are placed above the visible, long wick – and for extra safety – just above 1.25, and if there is more to be had, 1.2525, 1.2530 (the break out traders to go long) may be visited as well before the move down towards 1.1750.

EUR610

Now, look at the targets prompted by the projected distance of the current move up and the channel target calls.

EUR611


As a reminder, EUR is not likely going higher in the near term. Market Makers were dumping out on the way to 1.25.

EUR598


 

I saw some very bot-like action not long ago, in the after hours
I think I could write the program for this

EUR606

EUR607

EUR604

 

EUR603

 

EUR602

 

Wave 3 to the upside

Wave 3 can be impulsive or corrective

Golden Rule: Whatever you do, don’t sell!!!

Features: stochastic readings can embed in the overbought; there are plenty of bull flags, the deep pullbacks are the ones with oversold stochastics, but local oversold is also buyable (15 min), your bet is a higher high, but there is no need to sell until an SOB shows up, that breaks the price below its channel – you should sell out after this happened at/above the top.

 

EUR601

 

Wave 4 to the downside

Features: it goes local oversold (RIS2) twice, and oversold at least once.

During trending, wave 4 would fall shy of the terminal point of wave 1.

 

EUR600

 

EUR596

 

EUR594

Double dump

EUR593

There are different ways to a market turn. A double dump (X) is when a wave 3 runs out of participants, and has a last push within it. Wave 5 would be missing and so the result is a 2-wave move instead, a C.

if ( Period()==15 && RSI2[i]<5 && RSI2[i+1]>5 && (RSI2[i+3]<5 || RSI2[i+4]<5 ) && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,4,i+1)]<23) doubledump[i]=13;

COT out

With a week’s delay, as usual. I’m not trying to read too much into this, but there is a feature that I can point out. The next leg up seems to revolve around the small speculators getting wrong footed (sudden drop). This is a limited number people poker, and when the official loser folds – or blinks, someone else wins their bet.

EUR589

Out of the limited number of players, you can see how a top is made: when there is no one left to buy.

I’m having a hard time approving of the last move up to 1.25 as a wave 5. The wave 4, if it has not ended yet, is the weirdest correction I have ever encountered. I would think the price is going to play catch up to the bottom of the channel, by when it would be over the recent top.

EUR590

Now, is it possible that it would move lower first, and if, how far?

Friday’s close was awkward, for price stayed oversold for a bit and it went beyond the root effectively eliminating it. So, support’s gone. There was a quick rally back up after this, that fizzled out around 50% of the last leg up. Gap below is what you have in mind, to hand out your shorts before the sucker rally, dear institutional trader?

EUR588

Yes, the measured move is 1.2515, but, there is a channel target first…

EUR587

Something between 1.2380 & 1.2369? An undercut of the head at 1.2364 would do it? Would you let it slip all the way to the deeply overbought neckline at 1.2332? Can we even get a full back test, the measured move of the impulse wave down to 1.2285?

We shall find out soon…

 


 

R stands for Root

EUR573

 

 


I post a popular article, I get 100-125 visits that day, some people would come back for the next 3 days, on the 4th I have virtually no visitors. Conclusion: people are not interested in checking my EUR/USD current read page, and all works with this are in vain. Therefore this page from now on is merely a store of images, that I keep up for myself to look at on occasions while I am away from home.

 

Buy “15” (2x) =

if ( Period()==30 && RSI2[i]<23 && RSI2[i+1]>44 && RSI2[i+1]<80 && RSI2[i+2]<80 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,i)]<15 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,6,i)]>5 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,6,i)]<90 )

  • 6-sample minimum >5
  • 10-sample minimum <15
  • 6-sample maximum<90
  • current rsi2 <23
  • 44< previous rsi2  <80
  • rsi2[i+2]<80

if (Period()==30 && RSI2[i+1]>35 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,8,i+1)]==RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,i+1)]<12 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,9,i+1)]<80 && Close[i+1]>direction ) strength[i]=23;

  • a 10-sample low below 12
  • the previous RSI2 read was the highest in 8 samples
  • the previous RSI2 read did not exceed 80

EUR614

L/F = last failure (derived from 60 minutes values)

DVG4 = last 4h divergence level

CPS = 1h Compass level

*8* = last 8 Ball level (current time frame)

MMR = closest Market Maker Resistance

MMS = closest Market Maker Support

 

1.2382, 1.2521, 1.2546 are on the map.

 

COT>

http://www.cotbase.com/

https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/099741

The big picture as follows (from last year):

EUR527

As for future reference, on the http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/

That sounds like a failure for the first 3 weeks and an incredible rally on the 4th.

EUR528

 

Last M head: 1.0510

Last W head: 1.21

Last D head: 1.2546

Last 4H head: 1.2527

Last 1H head: 1.2526

Last 30m head: 1.2499

stand out support: 1.2317

piano keys: buy break of 1.2428; sell break of 1.2385

Weekly resistance: 1.2522

Weekly support: 1.2336

ATR upside limit: 1.2593-1.2622

ATR downside limit: 1.2397-1.2368

Weight: 1.2422

4H projected distance (upside): 1.2558

4H projected distance (downside):  1.23558

4H overbought neckline: 1.2129

4H deeply overbought: 1.2333

low risk sell: 1.2526

channel position: just below the middle

channel target: 1.25396

E36: 1.2484

professionals: 1.2454, 1.2257

amateurs: 27% Long 73% Short

last exhaustion: 1.2464

 

downtrend from: 1.2465

1H cycle support: 1.2394

1H cycle resistance: 1.2465

 

MM support levels:

 

1.2449

1.2432

1.2393

1.2347

1.2281

1.2257

1.2246

1.2224-1.12228

1.2209

1.2201

1.2188

1.2159

1.2136

1.21

1.2049

1.2027

1.1997

1.1974

1.1956

1.19418

1.1925

1.1880

1.1834

1.1809

1.1793

1.1772

1.1756

1.1739

1.1686

1.1581

1.1473

 

MM resistance levels

1.1632

1.1668

1.1750

1.1783

1.1791

1.1808

1.1824

1.1853

1.1873

1.1906

1.1922

1.1931

1.1948

1.1955

1.1975

1.1995

1.20023

1.20275

1.2045

1.2063

1.2235

1.2250

1.2265-70

1.2285

1.2397

1.2422

1.2451

1.2501