Under development – article later:
The barrier is the 8h LEMA
Buy 1/2 hedge:
if (nlongs<nshorts && (iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,3)>30 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,1)>10 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)<7 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,2)]<12 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>25 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)<32 )
|| ( nlongs<nshorts && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)<12 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,1)>12 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,2)>12 && iStochastic(NULL,240,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>80) && iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_MAIN,0)>iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_SIGNAL,0))
Sell 1/2 hedge:
if (nlongs>nshorts && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,3)<80 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)>88 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,10,2)]>80 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)<76 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>60 && iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_MAIN,0)<iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_SIGNAL,0) )
Green river, tatort, current ATR, W1, daily consolidation line, all at 1.1855
Look at the thick red lines. Closer, closer, too close!
The first red thick and the distance between the first pullback (E->1.1789) to the terminal point have something in common. Their (vertical) length.
The first sell gets the move going, the second finishes it off.
With the same logic, you currently have a minimum target around 1.1808 – for this swing. Since this would put the price above the cloud, you can expect another 3-5 days of further upside action.
The E-16 Hedger was fine tuned to hedge only if there was a greater than 35 pips separation from the EMA and no touches in the last 10 bars.
Re-designing for better visibility & understanding
The dual color line is an RSI8
What do you think?
And how about horizontal lines based on the B/S numbers? Chartreuse thumbs up?!
How about dual color Darkest Hour?
Now with vertical lines.
The best to use MB/MS on are relentlessly EUR/USD and GBP/CHF, but you never know…
Victory & victory
Check the location of the Maroon Sell and the Darkest Hour (now allowed for 30 min)
An example of the “h” walked off… correction via time.
The best trade for yesterday would had been this: 40+pips on a GBPCHF short
Bearish setup, GREEN river above Maroon, both headed lower. Back test of swing point, travel down to the prior swing low (Fractal) and out. I was not in it.
I was chasing longs. I was in EURGBP. Bullish config. Buy was too confident.
Entered 0.88056, set target to 0.8820 – and got out shy of that. Not very much.
Now I’m in a short – that is not really performing so far. USDCHF. Config? I think it is missing a right shoulder for a complete reversal. Could see 0.9975 back – and would make me close it. If it moves against me more, I might just build.
In the upper reversal zone, just below Maroon.
My problem with the EUR short was principlals. 50 pips is nothing to sneeze at. The config was semi bearish, yet price was above the Green River. I would call this risky.
I closed my long, as I said I would by 1.1988. Closing a long and going short are two different things.
I was also in a short of GBPUSD from 1.36.
1.1877 would be out of oversold & match the previous week’s high.
Too Bad, I wasn’t looking for a pair a week ago…
Look at all the Maroon Buys, then the squeeze LEMA sandwich and the inevitable break in the direction…
Well, something to keep an eye out for next time.
A pullback to the Maroon could be a buy.
Most pairs are at or arriving to their Median. Try to make a call there…
Christmas Maroon Sell all over again…
MB? I can only guess. How about Maroon Buy?
Testing it now. Later I will entrust it with opening capabilities as well (based on equity size).
Mike Maroon (3-minute LEMA) is now included in the 30-package. Later on this in the “2-minute Warning – 2018” article
DH stands for darkest hour – a feature designed for 15 min chart.
15 min RSI2 < 5
15 min stoch 10 <15
15 min RSI < 15
and at least two upper fractals since the last touch of the 3-minute LEMA
Tell me that 1.25 did not look like a short.
Those lines are the Monthly LEMA Quad.
Weekly Green River coming up…
Wind is up
Consolidation middle 1.1992
Daily consolidation lines on the right. 1.1960 is the closest one below. 1.2169 should have happened, but it did not happen…
Found resistance at the 4-h LEMA
Root point migrated lower, energy reached 51+ (consolidated). 1.2068 was re-tested
Bounce off the cover level – 1.5xDATR-15 pips level (Lime)
Ping pong? How about Root Pong?!
Apply comfort levels, and you will find, that they shorted the top of the upper reversal zone or 95% of the 4H range.
USDCHF just walked into the overbought
It went all the way again, into overdrive, close to 1.2191. 4H energy is at 29. No head yet, no new consolidation. New root point at 1.22129
1.2250 or even more so 1.2271 should be back-tested though.
The risk is that you’d get 3 days below the oversold neckline of 1.22355 – it is called embedding and yields you a trend.
New Root point -> new midway point
H stands for High Charge
If I was asked right now, where would price go to on the upside, the answer would be very, very easy.
In conclusion, upon taking out the Root point (couple of hourly closes above 1.2293) , you would see a move going back up to 1.2338-1.2340
BTW 4H overbought neckline is at 1.2211
For a fuller picture, here is the position of the 4H LEMA
Other: NZDUSD is in the oversold. As soon as you print a Wave 1 that would start from below the yet lucid Root point, you could bet on a move back up to the green river / middle of the scale @ .73.
GBPUSD furher down to 1.3950
GBPCHF seems to be re-testing the root, possibly making a bottom at the overbought neckline. If price opens higher, minimum target is the 1.3740-1.3760 area.
USDCAD: stretched – at an extension already, the wind tunnels are lined up the wrong way, if price comes back through 1.2726, a re-test of 1.2674 would become likely.
AUDUSD: a market that has trending potential, it is at the bottom of the lower reversal zone (5%), and this can start making lower lows indefinitely.
Current move up to the root does not qualify for a Wave 1.
A wave 1 comes from beyond a root point.
See how the wind (MACD) remained down all the way during the move back up.
The 3 thick horizontal lines are the two root lines + the halfway mark between them.
The bounce back into the end of Wave 1 (Wave 4) coincided with the pro volume candle’s low (green line)
After plotting the qualifying moves (thick red & green) – since the last move is a red down (happens to be the Wave 3), it is clear that you are looking at a retracement only in the up move, that would be the starting point of a wave 5 down – which could either stall out at the 55 pips black dash and storno the whole move or take it down much closer to 1.23097 – which would likely yield a consolidation at some point effectively moving the consolidation weight lower.
If I also plot the 88 lines, you would see a double pump at the end, that would increase the chance that Wave 5 would be a short one: if they decide to buy the inner brown, at 1.2336 and put a stop beyond the lower brown, the move would be cut short.
Also take note of the white spinning top. As soon as its bottom is crossed back up from below, the bear time would be over with.
In terms of deflectors, price is currently tucked below the green river monster (15-min LEMA), and is having a second go at the 30-min LEMA and the 1H LEMA is right here as well. On regular days, the price tends to play ping pong between the green river and the 2H LEMA – starting at 1.22763.
We seem to be witnessing a letter “h”, a formation that price cannot get out of lower for a while. (It came back down for a re-test after a significant bounce (>23%) too quickly.)
Check how the Root point has just migrated higher.
They have cleared away the stops. Greased the tracks. I call this a slider-wick at times.
You can also see the spot they bought the inner 8-line with a stop just beyond the outer 8-line risking 10 pips or so on the trade. Go, 88 Luftballons!
piano keys: sell break of 1.2336
Weekly resistance: 1.2396
Weekly support: 1.2260
ATR upside limit: 1.2432-1.2452
ATR downside limit: 1.2319-1.2303
4H projected distance (upside): 1.2430
4H projected distance (downside): 1.2297, 1.2307
4H overbought neckline: 1.2180
4H deeply overbought: 1.2368
low risk sell: 1.2380
channel position: below the middle
channel target: 1.23252
professionals: 1.2362, 1.2330
amateurs: 38% Long 62% Short
last exhaustion: 1.2343
downtrend from: 1.2378
4H cycle support: 1.2340
4H cycle resistance: 1.2380
The Deflector – the last Maggot
2nd white was a Wave 4 – it seems.
You may be looking at the opening / Wave 1 down right now.
See the sentence, increased chance of reversal in the Principles article. (Price should not have fallen back here.)
I decided on bringing out the Wave 1 BUY/SELL Stochastic Signals onto the right margin, see the above picture I ended up with.
Limbo at the 4h Green River… Wave 3 can start with any gap down now…
Play Wave 1 defence for 50 pips up? (from 1.2283) It would be the perfect spot to gap to…
What is so important about 1.2334?
Bottom of upper reversal zone: 1.2265
Wind is down, relentlessly
Little noise, nothing serious. Opening move down, 3 maggots lower – the sudden oversold was bought. The head is where the black “3” is at, we are pushing back into Wave 1 to the downside, Skid Rock time…
Buy (cover your short) only after the second downside exhaustion. And recharge afterwards upon a local overbought condition.
As a remark, there was a double pump at the top, check the two brown lines: sell level was/is the inner 8 @ 1.2387 and the stop could be put just beyond the outer one, 1.2396. It is a working trade. Maybe you should get my 88 Routine.
FOMC tomorrow, chaos is a given.
Next market maker level on the upside is 1.242, downside is 1.2280
Can this make it to 1.2445? I doubt it.
New feature: sudden oversold / sudden overbought by the number 2
There is an extension possibility here to back test the confluence of the Wave 1 defense and market maker sell 30-40 pips higher.
…or price could just collapse from here like a ton of bricks…
channel target VS projected distance. My bet is this move was a terminal one.
I see… a double pump (88 Luftb.) which makes the current wave a C?
Drop away, then retrace… where you get to short the hell out of it at the inner 8 with the low risk stop above the outer one.
Does not look good. Currently in Wave C or Wave 3 up, so gap up is a possibility. One more green exhaustion on the upside and bulls are finished. Touching the green river monster that has crossed below the 30 min & the 1h LEMAs. Bearish configuration means TROUBLE.
Short 1.2310, and if it makes it any further, add all the way to 1.2336.
What is 88 Luftballons? (find it in the posts)
Wave 5 missing
Upside break, now in Wave 4
Wave 1 Defender “12”
Tell me that this does not look like a bull flag…
1.2229? 1.2365 first?
“There are only 4 reversal patterns: Upper & Lower Head & Shoulders, Rising & Falling Wedge, all other patterns are continuation patterns.”
Scott Barkley says, no pull back, they want to hit a large options order at 1.25…
Last 4h upside & downside projection values based on projected distance (above)
Quick channel target
MACD main = histogram; MACD signal = magenta
MACD signal = fan (direction of the blow); parameters: 48, 104, 10
Ingredients for a directional trade:
- play the direction of the wind
- find condition i.e. (RSI2, 1h > 88) – enter
- exit at a deflector (1h or higher)
Ingredients for a counter directional trade:
- you are going against the wind direction
- count waves for increasing odds
- find condition i.e. (Stoch10, 1h < 15 && Stoch10, 1h >5 )
- find the next deflector coming up, and only enter there
- exit on either a deflector or on a revolving door (previous 30m Fractal)
You’ve got 4 different time frames’ (different types of traders) heads lined up in a narrow band.
Last D head: 1.2546
Last 4H head: 1.2527
Last 1H head: 1.2526
Last 30m head: 1.2499
How many buy stops (buy to open & buy to close) would trigger if the price was driven above 1.2560?
Imagine for a second that you are a blind believer of E.W. principles, such as Wave 4 cannot penetrate Wave 1.
You are going in short up to the arrow, and placing your stops nearby. If that stop was within 15-20 pips of your entry, you were probably knocked out for a loss by the MMs immediately.
Now, if that down move was merely a Wave 1, and we are in Wave 3 to the downside… How bad would you feel about that almost perfect short entry upon seeing the gap down?
If you were a market maker and still had longs you wanted to get rid of, what would you do?
I would run the stops of people currently short, that are placed above the visible, long wick – and for extra safety – just above 1.25, and if there is more to be had, 1.2525, 1.2530 (the break out traders to go long) may be visited as well before the move down towards 1.1750.
Now, look at the targets prompted by the projected distance of the current move up and the channel target calls.
As a reminder, EUR is not likely going higher in the near term. Market Makers were dumping out on the way to 1.25.
I saw some very bot-like action not long ago, in the after hours
I think I could write the program for this
Wave 3 to the upside
Wave 3 can be impulsive or corrective
Golden Rule: Whatever you do, don’t sell!!!
Features: stochastic readings can embed in the overbought; there are plenty of bull flags, the deep pullbacks are the ones with oversold stochastics, but local oversold is also buyable (15 min), your bet is a higher high, but there is no need to sell until an SOB shows up, that breaks the price below its channel – you should sell out after this happened at/above the top.
Wave 4 to the downside
Features: it goes local oversold (RIS2) twice, and oversold at least once.
During trending, wave 4 would fall shy of the terminal point of wave 1.
There are different ways to a market turn. A double dump (X) is when a wave 3 runs out of participants, and has a last push within it. Wave 5 would be missing and so the result is a 2-wave move instead, a C.
if ( Period()==15 && RSI2[i]<5 && RSI2[i+1]>5 && (RSI2[i+3]<5 || RSI2[i+4]<5 ) && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,4,i+1)]<23) doubledump[i]=13;
With a week’s delay, as usual. I’m not trying to read too much into this, but there is a feature that I can point out. The next leg up seems to revolve around the small speculators getting wrong footed (sudden drop). This is a limited number people poker, and when the official loser folds – or blinks, someone else wins their bet.
Out of the limited number of players, you can see how a top is made: when there is no one left to buy.
I’m having a hard time approving of the last move up to 1.25 as a wave 5. The wave 4, if it has not ended yet, is the weirdest correction I have ever encountered. I would think the price is going to play catch up to the bottom of the channel, by when it would be over the recent top.
Now, is it possible that it would move lower first, and if, how far?
Friday’s close was awkward, for price stayed oversold for a bit and it went beyond the root effectively eliminating it. So, support’s gone. There was a quick rally back up after this, that fizzled out around 50% of the last leg up. Gap below is what you have in mind, to hand out your shorts before the sucker rally, dear institutional trader?
Yes, the measured move is 1.2515, but, there is a channel target first…
Something between 1.2380 & 1.2369? An undercut of the head at 1.2364 would do it? Would you let it slip all the way to the deeply overbought neckline at 1.2332? Can we even get a full back test, the measured move of the impulse wave down to 1.2285?
We shall find out soon…
R stands for Root
I post a popular article, I get 100-125 visits that day, some people would come back for the next 3 days, on the 4th I have virtually no visitors. Conclusion: people are not interested in checking my EUR/USD current read page, and all works with this are in vain. Therefore this page from now on is merely a store of images, that I keep up for myself to look at on occasions while I am away from home.
Buy “15” (2x) =
if ( Period()==30 && RSI2[i]<23 && RSI2[i+1]>44 && RSI2[i+1]<80 && RSI2[i+2]<80 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,i)]<15 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,6,i)]>5 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,6,i)]<90 )
- 6-sample minimum >5
- 10-sample minimum <15
- 6-sample maximum<90
- current rsi2 <23
- 44< previous rsi2 <80
if (Period()==30 && RSI2[i+1]>35 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,8,i+1)]==RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,i+1)]<12 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,9,i+1)]<80 && Close[i+1]>direction ) strength[i]=23;
- a 10-sample low below 12
- the previous RSI2 read was the highest in 8 samples
- the previous RSI2 read did not exceed 80
L/F = last failure (derived from 60 minutes values)
DVG4 = last 4h divergence level
CPS = 1h Compass level
*8* = last 8 Ball level (current time frame)
MMR = closest Market Maker Resistance
MMS = closest Market Maker Support
1.2382, 1.2521, 1.2546 are on the map.
The big picture as follows (from last year):
As for future reference, on the http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/
That sounds like a failure for the first 3 weeks and an incredible rally on the 4th.
Last M head: 1.0510
Last W head: 1.21
Last D head: 1.2546
Last 4H head: 1.2527
Last 1H head: 1.2526
Last 30m head: 1.2499
stand out support: 1.2317
piano keys: buy break of 1.2428; sell break of 1.2385
Weekly resistance: 1.2522
Weekly support: 1.2336
ATR upside limit: 1.2593-1.2622
ATR downside limit: 1.2397-1.2368
4H projected distance (upside): 1.2558
4H projected distance (downside): 1.23558
4H overbought neckline: 1.2129
4H deeply overbought: 1.2333
low risk sell: 1.2526
channel position: just below the middle
channel target: 1.25396
professionals: 1.2454, 1.2257
amateurs: 27% Long 73% Short
last exhaustion: 1.2464
downtrend from: 1.2465
1H cycle support: 1.2394
1H cycle resistance: 1.2465
MM support levels:
MM resistance levels