EUR/USD current read

EUR1252


EUR1250

EUR1249


EUR1247


EUR1246


& the 24h Market Profile is born (those numbers on the right, yes)

EUR1245


EUR1244


EUR1242


EUR1237


EUR1233


EUR1232

EUR1231

EUR1230


EUR1228


Daily Report 17-10-18

How much sabotage is not too much?

I already made the 96 End Line trader routine exempt from the 2.5% capping, but today there was another routine that would had gone to target if my cropper was not sabotaging it, and it could had made 7% gains by itself. From now on 93 Weight Breaker would get 7% cap along with the fore-mentioned 96.

Weight_Breaker__

The other 2.5% gainer was a new routine that I just thought of yesterday and coded it right before it got its fill yesterday at 21:34 GMT. The first fill was stopped out with 1 pip, and it only showed a negative balance because of the Swap arriving for an Euro long at the 10PM re-balancing.

It now has a filter not to put out trades after 9 PM, which effectively rules out Sunday opens. I also added a minimum 4-sample size restriction.

5.07% is today’s gain vs the uncapped run’s 9.5% potential.

Detailed_Report171018


Daily Report 16-10-18

99 Terminal came across twice, in 2 different directions for capped maximum profit of 2.5% each by 6:36 AM GMT

Did not have to lift a finger, and I should had refrained from button pushing for the rest of the day as well, for the next two trades would had gone to the capped maximum and the bottom line would had come to a round 10% – which still was not the full potential. There was another 18 pips available if the 96 routine was made exempt from capping and it went to its target. Exception is now registered.

13%-14% was the full potential of the 5 executed trades.

I closed the day with 5.81% gains.

Detailed_Report161018


Daily Report 15-10-18

Today was a slow day.
I decided on writing a routine that exploits gaps above 1/2 Fluctuation size, and now this is part of the system.
The Closeline Ribbon (I lifted it off my shelves and dusted it down over the weekend) routine this morning was manually killed. I did not like the size, and slashed it to half since. I also increased the displacement.

The first trade of the day was placed by my
95 End Line Routine
After it locked in 1 pip first (that is still better than break even), it locked in 2 pips and ultimately was killed by the new cropper, for it exceeded 2.5% of the Account Balance with 1,078.56

The second trade was opened by my
99 Terminal 8 Routine
Less size, but the same play out; 1 Pips, 2 Pips and ultimately a crop – this time by a different cropper routine.

583 Anchorage was stiopped out twice for 1 pip
and one time was killed manually at 1.5 pip – should have let it run.

One manual trade was placed, that brought the net gain to
1,665.83 or
3.917% of the opening balance.

90 Lema Buy was stopped out at 1 pip
and a second time manually for a loss of $9.88 loss to close out the day

Whilst the largest gain was 2.5%, the largest draw down never even reached 2%.
The close to 100% success rate is the expectation.

The art is not doing this once, it is doing this every day, regardless of what the market does.

Detailed_Report151018

EUR1227


EUR1225

If leg A started at 35% and went to 60%, how high will leg C go to from 46%?

If your answer was Purple Haze, you were correct.

EUR1226


EUR1224


EUR1222

CAD_10


Purple Haze ->  Guard Rail Marathon

EUR1219


EUR1220


Working on the book…

…your introduction to the quantum world: welcome to the concept where the market can make a lower low without making a break and can make a break without making a lower low. From now on, everything is relative.

CAD_06


EUR1211


EUR1208


EUR1204


EUR1191

EUR1190


EUR1186


EUR1185

EUR1184

EUR1183


G30

G30_


EUR1180


EUR1179


Profit Factor: 358

BRGR_

Profit Factor: 2443

GRBR__

999 lots limit obeyed

GGU_

GGU


EUR1176

EUR1173


Profit Factor: 299

PsarTrader10

PsarTrader10_


EUR1171


EUR1166


Despite of the malfunctioning trail stop, 8%+ gains again.

CAT050918


EUR1164

Paul_


EUR1163


Anchorage Wild UGD fine tuning in progress.

Histotical data loaded…

Testing…

5-months’ performance

Anchorage_UGD2

Anchorage_UDG2_


88 Luftballons is being married with the Sync/Async plots in order to find H&S terminals.

88_4


 

EUR1155


EUR1151


EUR1150


EUR1146


EUR1145


EUR1141

EUR1141

Calm and collected look, how to achieve it?


EUR1132


Market in Call

EUR1130


Sharpies, buy and sell shadings would be part of the God Awesome Indicator.

EUR1127



Until you get an up move that is greater than 33 pips, the direction shall remain down

EUR1111


The Short Wave sets the direction.

The No Break terminates the move.

EUR1110


EUR1109

EUR1107


3rd attempt coming up at the Green River.

EUR1102

Charm time.

Downside terminated for the 3rd time. Short wave + no break = reversal.

EUR1104


Working on the “God Awesome Trader”…

EUR1100

A classic picture to the archives:

“Sleight of chart direction”

EUR1101


No break happened.

A-1.1539 may get a back test. Direction is up.

Cyan line=pivot.

EUR1099


EUR1098

After the short wave, you want to see a no break for a reversal.

1.1568 is the peg, 16-32 pips it can go below it without a break.


EUR1095

EUR1096

EUR1093


Just to show – things I’m working with currently:

8,12,18 ticks charts, DOW, DAX, Crude

Fluctuation_2

EMA50

 

3107_11

3107_10

3107_9

3107_8

3107_7

3107_6

3107_5

3107_4

3107_3

3107_2

 

3107


EUR1081


EUR1079


EUR1073

Want to see another RSI8 below 20 – 1.1657 – for faliure, 1.1640 for continuation


Here is what I think happened: they secured a coast move by a small gap up by keeping it to its fluctuation range.

EUR1071

Once the gap fills, you would see a move up to the 38-40 line just to fail.


Lower High with higher stochastic (red line) divergence.

Last swing size: 38 pips – failed break out.

EUR1065


EUR1063

If you measure the last push down, it was 39+ pips. Coincidence.


EUR1062

There was a Maroon Sell…

If you are wondering of the swing size 82, it is 66 (progression) + 16 (coast)

Wait for a 40 swing for an upside failure


Let’s see if you’re brave enough to test my cyborg routines…

An-Alfa-Beta versions as follows:

_RSI8_Seller

_RSI8_Buyer

Add a ratio hedger just in case with 0.65 setting – and an RSI cropper to start. The RSI cropper is smart enough never to crop the ratio hedger’s hedge.

There is also my_Kijun-sen_Stop_Loss_Fitter

To make the arena more busy.


Projected distance…

EUR1054

 


Broker friendly version: orders spread out, less drawdown, no excessive orders.

Anchorage_Trader_Wild_UG_chart

Anchorage_Trader_Wild_UG


Anchorage 1st pass

Okay, one more thing to show you: pushing the boundaries of what is even possible, here’s a 34.73 profit factor for you:

Anchorage_Trader_Wilder_Chart

Anchorage_Trader_Wilder

Anchorage_Wild(video)


EUR1047

EUR1046

EUR1045


What is a reversal? A verified divergence.

EUR1022

How do you verify a divergence? By the break of the 4-sample high/low printed coming off the A-sync swing.

EUR1023

Divergence ~~ Sync – Async sequence.


EUR1018

Projected distance vs. MACD divergence – which one would win? Also the fact that the 30-min LEMA middle was hit, and then the 30 min Lema Cloud upper edge;

EUR1019

the downside projection of 1.148x becomes a possibility here.

I haven’t coded anything in TOS for a year now, so it was nice and new editing my UFO script. It was looking for a power move on 2, 3 samples, but if I allowed for a 1-sample, it would show that the projection was basically filled.

EUR1020

Here’s projected distance adjusted to 80% ATR

_Projected_Distance_origi

EUR1021


EUR1017

 

There is no qualified Async high yet.

EUR1012


See how random the market moves are?!

EUR1010

Soaking silly – was someone’s comment. People don’t know what to appreciate.

EUR1011


Lower reversal zone bottom hit. Wedge it or not…

EUR1009


RSI <9!

EUR1008

The first selling exhaustion got the move started. The second is ending it.


Selling is still strong. Check the new release under “When Volatility Dries Up.”

EUR1005


Celebrating 85 years of RSI – “A cut above”

EUR990


I would buy the back test of the last Async high @ 1.16175 ->66-75 target

EUR989


2 Sync highs so far.

EUR988

 


…and they changed their mind…

EUR978


EUR976

Professionals at the bottom this time


Adjusted some on the Sync-Async plots

EUR974

Yes, there was a Genuine/Sell signal as well.

Sync_

All root points are Async. Heads may not get any plot at all (other than a divergence plot).

Sync means: prepare for a turn.

Async should be a terminal point, so if it breaks, you must go with the direction.

2 Asyncs coming off a Sync high are a continuation low.

Lots of Syncs in a sequence: this is a wedge.

 

Also, from now on more emphasis on the EXIT level.

S/X= Sell Exit

EUR975


The next consolidation weights are at 1.1627 and 1.1664

Mr. Maroon in touching distance. Overbought neckline at 1.1633

EUR972


EUR969

EUR970


Lots of back testing during this weekend.

I had to come up with a routine for trading around the Green River, and I ended up with two. I found the 2H Lema act as sort of a polarity switch: above it, the break outs prevail on a first attempt, below it the limit orders work out at the same level relative to the Green Monster.

Here is GREEN RIVER MONSTER BREAK – that works above the 2H LEMA

GRM_BRK_01

GRM_BRK_02

& GREEN RIVER MONSTER – that works below the 2H LEMA

GRM_01

GRM_02


EUR966

Professionals on the tops…

EUR967

Do you see any 4h pro volumes yet? I certainly don’t.

EUR968


EUR959


What is a head & shoulders?

It is an In Sync – A/Sync – In Sync sequence

EUR957

EUR956

Tie_Off_Double_02


 

Back test anyone?

EUR952

EUR951

EUR951


EUR948


EUR946

ABC correction over with

EUR947

 


Inside the cloud is neutral

EUR938

EUR939


The last swing & the progress:

EUR934

3 dojis up,

EUR935

2 down.

This is how you progress.


By the way, my PSAR Trader did not walk into the minefield yesterday. And I did not even have to make any corrections. It simply deleted the order before price could hit it.

PSARTrader08

I intentionally picked less than 4 hours for expiration. 5 minutes before the next print it was cancelled as you can see.

EUR933

 


You are above the 1H cloud –  think twice before you short

EUR932


Nothing reversed today as hard as USD/CAD

USDCAD24

G/B stands for Genuine Buy.

EUR930

White dots show the swing low that you should buy the undercut of.

EUR931

 

Genuine Trader – strong filters for now, but it sure has its place in my new algo package, Mr. Psar, meet Mr. Genuine…

GenuineTrader

Gotta check back later, I’m curious if today’s trade would had gone fine… Don’t have the data for it yet.


This is a breakout backtest. Period.

EUR929

USDCAD23

_divergencepetr_s6

_2Much_Info

EUR928


Wave 5 ended up being an ABC

EUR926

Lots of professional activity

EUR927

EUR925


Violation of Mr. Maroon = Shot Over the Bow = Wave4

EUR921


The level was on the screen all along.

EUR922


Undercut, double pump, RSI nearing 15, getting there…

EUR918

EUR920

The red shading is the low volatility area, price choked when it tried to surpass it because of lack of orders. The next attempt at it would be the 4th.

DH has just showed up.


Propping up “88” for sale on someone’s request.

88_1

88_2

Even I’m not sure of the current color combination 🙂

88_3

(the thick, currently Orchid lines are the daily levels)

EUR914


There is some Wave1 defender action here: a penetration up to 15 pips was sold. If this is going to be a higher swing low, bulls would have 3 more swing highs granted.

EUR915

The next Wave1 defense line is gonna be at 1.1764 + up to 15 pips, in the Green River – this would be a sell up to reaching a 30-min 8 sample oversold RSI (an ABC correction).

EUR916

The correction from above would probably be met with Wave1 bull defenders (1.1718-1.1714). Staying above the hourly cloud would yield 3-5 days more of upside action.

I watched this over the weekend – not on Friday though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-25/why-crude-oil-is-taking-its-biggest-fall-in-a-year-video

The purpose of the Analysts is to mislead you. They point in the wrong direction and get you paranoid. 1.14, sure. This was the gap-up back test. They had to get rid of dollars and/or wanted Euros on Friday, and so they utilized the media to have people get paranoid for what was to come over the weekend. Nothing. News have no relevance. Levels, conditions, intentions. The Futures contract serves the purpose perfectly: you cannot see what happened a half a year ago in the garbage data it provides. Gap up? Where?

Whoever sold on Friday in the second half, can now be squeezed. That’s all there is to it.

Found the match too:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-25/ubs-s-gordon-says-very-bullish-on-euro-may-rise-to-1-30-video

EUR917


EUR913


AUD/USD is already a buy

AUD046

_E16_Channel

PSAR Trader Expert

ex4 – $299

mq4 – $399

my co-operation – pirceless

PSARTrader07

25 Stop/40 Target setting


E16 Trader – not currently marketed

E16Trader


EUR905


EUR904


Under development – article later:

EUR900

_2Much_Info

EUR901

_2Much_Info

EUR902

EUR903

_2Much_Info


EUR899

 

EUR897

The barrier is the 8h LEMA

EUR894

EUR895

EUR896

0_Half_Hedge_15min

Buy 1/2 hedge:

if (nlongs<nshorts && (iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,3)>30 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,1)>10 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)<7 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,2)]<12 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>25 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)<32 )
|| ( nlongs<nshorts && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)<12 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,1)>12 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,2)>12 && iStochastic(NULL,240,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>80) && iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_MAIN,0)>iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_SIGNAL,0))

Sell 1/2 hedge:

if (nlongs>nshorts && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,3)<80 && iRSI(NULL,15,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)>88 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,10,2)]>80 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)<76 && iStochastic(NULL,15,10,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>60 && iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_MAIN,0)<iMACD(NULL,30,24,52,5,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_SIGNAL,0) )

 


Green river, tatort, current ATR, W1, daily consolidation line, all at 1.1855

EUR893


EUR890

EUR891

Look at the thick red lines. Closer, closer, too close!

The first red thick and the distance between the first pullback (E->1.1789) to the terminal point have something in common. Their (vertical) length.

The first sell gets the move going, the second finishes it off.

EUR892

With the same logic, you currently have a minimum target around 1.1808 – for this swing. Since this would put the price above the cloud, you can expect another 3-5 days of further upside action.

0_E16_Hedger

The E-16 Hedger was fine tuned to hedge only if there was a greater than 35 pips separation from the EMA and no touches in the last 10 bars.


Re-designing for better visibility & understanding

EUR886

The dual color line is an RSI8

What do you think?

_divergencepetr_s6

And how about horizontal lines based on the B/S numbers? Chartreuse thumbs up?!

EUR887

_divergencepetr_s6

How about dual color Darkest Hour?

EUR888

_divergencepetr_s6

EUR889


Now with vertical lines.

EUR884

The best to use MB/MS on are relentlessly EUR/USD and GBP/CHF, but you never know…

USDJPY

AUDNZD02


Victory & victory

Check the location of the Maroon Sell and the Darkest Hour (now allowed for 30 min)

EUR882


EUR881

An example of the “h” walked off… correction via time.

EUR880


The best trade for yesterday would had been this: 40+pips on a GBPCHF short

GBPCHF120

Bearish setup, GREEN river above Maroon, both headed lower. Back test of swing point, travel down to the prior swing low (Fractal) and out. I was not in it.

I was chasing longs. I was in EURGBP. Bullish config. Buy was too confident.

Entered 0.88056, set target to 0.8820 – and got out shy of that. Not very much.

EURGBP1

Now I’m in a short – that is not really performing so far. USDCHF. Config? I think it is missing a right shoulder for a complete reversal. Could see 0.9975 back – and would make me close it. If it moves against me more, I might just build.

USDCHF16

In the upper reversal zone, just below Maroon.

USDCHF17

USDCHF18

My problem with the EUR short was principlals. 50 pips is nothing to sneeze at. The config was semi bearish, yet price was above the Green River. I would call this risky.

I closed my long, as I said I would by 1.1988. Closing a long and going short are two different things.

EUR879

I was also in a short of GBPUSD from 1.36.


1.1877 would be out of oversold & match the previous week’s high.

EUR878

 

Too Bad, I wasn’t looking for a pair a week ago…

Look at all the Maroon Buys, then the squeeze LEMA sandwich and the inevitable break in the direction…

AUDNZD

Well, something to keep an eye out for next time.

A pullback to the Maroon could be a buy.

Most pairs are at or arriving to their Median. Try to make a call there…

 

It’s like Christmas Maroon Sell all over again…

EUR876

_divergencepetr_s6

MB? I can only guess. How about Maroon Buy?

USDCHF15


EUR873

0_Maroon_Hedger

Testing it now. Later I will entrust it with opening capabilities as well (based on equity size).

EUR874

EUR875


Mike Maroon (3-minute LEMA) is now included in the 30-package. Later on this in the “2-minute Warning – 2018” article

EUR870

_LEMA_30

EUR868

EUR869

DH stands for darkest hour – a feature designed for 15 min chart.

USDCAD018


Tell me that 1.25 did not look like a short.

Those lines are the Monthly LEMA Quad.

EUR858

Weekly Green River coming up…

EUR859


EUR857

EUR856

 

EUR849

EUR850

EUR851

EUR852


Daily consolidation lines on the right. 1.1960 is the closest one below. 1.2169 should have happened, but it did not happen…

EUR847

Found resistance at the 4-h LEMA

EUR848

 

Root point migrated lower, energy reached 51+ (consolidated). 1.2068 was re-tested

EUR846


EUR845

Bounce off the cover level – 1.5xDATR-15 pips level (Lime)

EUR839

EUR840

EUR841

Ping pong? How about Root Pong?!

RootPong

Apply comfort levels, and you will find, that they shorted the top of the upper reversal zone or 95% of the 4H range.

EUR842

 

USDCHF just walked into the overbought

USDCHF13

 

 

 


It went all the way again, into overdrive, close to 1.2191. 4H energy is at 29. No head yet, no new consolidation. New root point at 1.22129

EUR834

1.2250 or even more so 1.2271 should be back-tested though.

EUR835

The risk is that you’d get 3 days below the oversold neckline of 1.22355 – it is called embedding and yields you a trend.


New Root point -> new midway point

EUR833

H stands for High Charge

 


FXE4


If I was asked right now, where would price go to on the upside, the answer would be very, very easy.

EUR830

EUR831

In conclusion, upon taking out the Root point (couple of hourly closes above 1.2293) , you would see a move going back up to 1.2338-1.2340

BTW 4H overbought neckline is at 1.2211

For a fuller picture, here is the position of the 4H LEMA

EUR832


Other: NZDUSD is in the oversold. As soon as you print a Wave 1 that would start from below the yet lucid Root point, you could bet on a move back up to the green river / middle of the scale @ .73.

NZDUSD

GBPUSD furher down to 1.3950

GBPUSD056

GBPCHF seems to be re-testing the root, possibly making a bottom at the overbought neckline. If price opens higher, minimum target is the 1.3740-1.3760 area.

GBPCHF118

USDCAD:  stretched – at an extension already, the wind tunnels are lined up the wrong way, if price comes back through 1.2726, a re-test of 1.2674 would become likely.

USDCAD18

AUDUSD: a market that has trending potential, it is at the bottom of the lower reversal zone (5%), and this can start making lower lows indefinitely.

AUDUSD


Current move up to the root does not qualify for a Wave 1.

EUR826

EUR829


A wave 1 comes from beyond a root point.

See how the wind (MACD) remained down all the way during the move back up.

The 3 thick horizontal lines are the two root lines + the halfway mark between them.

The bounce back into the end of Wave 1 (Wave 4) coincided with the pro volume candle’s low (green line)

EUR819

After plotting the qualifying moves (thick red & green) – since the last move is a red down (happens to be the Wave 3), it is clear that you are looking at a retracement only in the up move, that would be the starting point of a wave 5 down – which could either stall out at the 55 pips black dash and storno the whole move or take it down much closer to 1.23097 – which would likely yield a consolidation at some point effectively moving the consolidation weight lower.

EUR820

If I also plot the 88 lines, you would see a double pump at the end, that would increase the chance that Wave 5 would be a short one: if they decide to buy the inner brown, at 1.2336 and put a stop beyond the lower brown, the move would be cut short.

EUR821

Also take note of the white spinning top. As soon as its bottom is crossed back up from below, the bear time would be over with.

EUR822

In terms of deflectors, price is currently tucked below the green river monster (15-min LEMA), and is having a second go at the 30-min LEMA and the 1H LEMA is right here as well. On regular days, the price tends to play ping pong between the green river and the 2H LEMA – starting at 1.22763.

We seem to be witnessing a letter “h”, a formation that price cannot get out of lower for a while. (It came back down for a re-test after a significant bounce (>23%) too quickly.)

Check how the Root point has just migrated higher.

EUR823

 


EUR818

They have cleared away the stops. Greased the tracks. I call this a slider-wick at times.

You can also see the spot they bought the inner 8-line with a stop just beyond the outer 8-line risking 10 pips or so on the trade. Go, 88 Luftballons!


piano keys: sell break of 1.2336

Weekly resistance: 1.2396

Weekly support: 1.2260

ATR upside limit: 1.2432-1.2452

ATR downside limit: 1.2319-1.2303

Weight: 1.23768

4H projected distance (upside): 1.2430

4H projected distance (downside):  1.2297, 1.2307

4H overbought neckline: 1.2180

4H deeply overbought: 1.2368

low risk sell: 1.2380

channel position: below the middle

channel target: 1.23252

E36: 1.2370

professionals: 1.2362, 1.2330

amateurs: 38% Long 62% Short

last exhaustion: 1.2343

 

downtrend from: 1.2378

4H cycle support: 1.2340

4H cycle resistance: 1.2380

EUR816

 

The Deflector – the last Maggot

EUR812

 


2nd white was a Wave 4 – it seems.

EUR810


You may be looking at the opening / Wave 1 down right now.

See the sentence, increased chance of reversal in the Principles article. (Price should not have fallen back here.)

EUR809


I decided on bringing out the Wave 1 BUY/SELL Stochastic Signals onto the right margin, see the above picture I ended up with.


Limbo at the 4h Green River… Wave 3 can start with any gap down now…

Play Wave 1 defence for 50 pips up? (from 1.2283) It would be the perfect spot to gap to…

EUR794

EUR795

What is so important about 1.2334?

EUR796

EUR797


Wave 2

eur792

Bottom of upper reversal zone: 1.2265

EUR793

Wind is down, relentlessly


EUR791

Little noise, nothing serious. Opening move down, 3 maggots lower – the sudden oversold was bought. The head is where the black “3” is at, we are pushing back into Wave 1 to the downside, Skid Rock time…

EUR789

Buy (cover your short) only after the second downside exhaustion. And recharge afterwards upon a local overbought condition.

EUR790

As a remark, there was a double pump at the top, check the two brown lines: sell level was/is the inner 8 @ 1.2387 and the stop could be put just beyond the outer one, 1.2396. It is a working trade. Maybe you should get my 88 Routine.

EUR788


FOMC tomorrow, chaos is a given.

Next market maker level on the upside is 1.242, downside is 1.2280

EUR785

Can this make it to 1.2445? I doubt it.

EUR786

New feature: sudden oversold / sudden overbought by the number 2

EUR787


There is an extension possibility here to back test the confluence of the Wave 1 defense and market maker sell 30-40 pips higher.

EUR781

…or price could just collapse from here like a ton of bricks…

channel target VS projected distance. My bet is this move was a terminal one.

EUR783

 

EUR782

I see… a double pump (88 Luftb.) which makes the current wave a C?

EUR784

Drop away, then retrace… where you get to short the hell out of it at the inner 8 with the low risk stop above the outer one.


Does not look good. Currently in Wave C or Wave 3 up, so gap up is a possibility. One more green exhaustion on the upside and bulls are finished. Touching the green river monster that has crossed below the 30 min & the 1h LEMAs. Bearish configuration means TROUBLE.

Short 1.2310, and if it makes it any further, add all the way to 1.2336.

EUR775

EUR776

EUR777

EUR778

EUR780


What is 88 Luftballons? (find it in the posts)

EUR772

EUR767

EUR762

EUR764

EUR765

EUR763


EUR761


EUR760


EUR752

EUR750

EUR748


Wave 5 missing

EUR747


EUR729

EUR728


 

Upside break, now in Wave 4

EUR713

Wave 1 Defender “12”

_W1D_12

_36_Only_V1_4RLD

_Deflectors_Numberified

EUR705

EUR704


Tell me that this does not look like a bull flag…

EUR701

1.2229? 1.2365 first?


Scott_Barkley_Interview

“There are only 4 reversal patterns: Upper & Lower Head & Shoulders, Rising & Falling Wedge, all other patterns are continuation patterns.”

EUR682

EUR680

EUR681


Scott Barkley says, no pull back, they want to hit a large options order at 1.25…

FXE

FXEO

EUR679

EUR678


EUR675

(shrug)

EUR670


EUR667

Last 4h upside & downside projection values based on projected distance (above)


Quick channel target

DXY3

EUR666


EUR653


3 peaks and a domed house

EUR643


 

EUR617

EUR618

EUR619


You’ve got 4 different time frames’ (different types of traders) heads lined up in a narrow band.

Last D head: 1.2546

Last 4H head: 1.2527

Last 1H head: 1.2526

Last 30m head: 1.2499

How many buy stops (buy to open & buy to close) would trigger if the price was driven above 1.2560?


Imagine for a second that you are a blind believer of E.W. principles, such as Wave 4 cannot penetrate Wave 1.

EUR613

You are going in short up to the arrow, and placing your stops nearby. If that stop was within 15-20 pips of your entry, you were probably knocked out for a loss by the MMs immediately.

Now, if that down move was merely a Wave 1, and we are in Wave 3 to the downside… How bad would you feel about that almost perfect short entry upon seeing the gap down?


If you were a market maker and still had longs you wanted to get rid of, what would you do?

I would run the stops of people currently short, that are placed above the visible, long wick – and for extra safety – just above 1.25, and if there is more to be had, 1.2525, 1.2530 (the break out traders to go long) may be visited as well before the move down towards 1.1750.

EUR610

Now, look at the targets prompted by the projected distance of the current move up and the channel target calls.

EUR611


As a reminder, EUR is not likely going higher in the near term. Market Makers were dumping out on the way to 1.25.

EUR598


 

I saw some very bot-like action not long ago, in the after hours
I think I could write the program for this

EUR606

EUR607

EUR604

 

EUR603

 

EUR602

 

Wave 3 to the upside

Wave 3 can be impulsive or corrective

Golden Rule: Whatever you do, don’t sell!!!

Features: stochastic readings can embed in the overbought; there are plenty of bull flags, the deep pullbacks are the ones with oversold stochastics, but local oversold is also buyable (15 min), your bet is a higher high, but there is no need to sell until an SOB shows up, that breaks the price below its channel – you should sell out after this happened at/above the top.

 

EUR601

 

Wave 4 to the downside

Features: it goes local oversold (RIS2) twice, and oversold at least once.

During trending, wave 4 would fall shy of the terminal point of wave 1.

 

EUR600

 

EUR596

 

EUR594

Double dump

EUR593

There are different ways to a market turn. A double dump (X) is when a wave 3 runs out of participants, and has a last push within it. Wave 5 would be missing and so the result is a 2-wave move instead, a C.

if ( Period()==15 && RSI2[i]<5 && RSI2[i+1]>5 && (RSI2[i+3]<5 || RSI2[i+4]<5 ) && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,4,i+1)]<23) doubledump[i]=13;

COT out

With a week’s delay, as usual. I’m not trying to read too much into this, but there is a feature that I can point out. The next leg up seems to revolve around the small speculators getting wrong footed (sudden drop). This is a limited number people poker, and when the official loser folds – or blinks, someone else wins their bet.

EUR589

Out of the limited number of players, you can see how a top is made: when there is no one left to buy.

I’m having a hard time approving of the last move up to 1.25 as a wave 5. The wave 4, if it has not ended yet, is the weirdest correction I have ever encountered. I would think the price is going to play catch up to the bottom of the channel, by when it would be over the recent top.

EUR590

Now, is it possible that it would move lower first, and if, how far?

Friday’s close was awkward, for price stayed oversold for a bit and it went beyond the root effectively eliminating it. So, support’s gone. There was a quick rally back up after this, that fizzled out around 50% of the last leg up. Gap below is what you have in mind, to hand out your shorts before the sucker rally, dear institutional trader?

EUR588

Yes, the measured move is 1.2515, but, there is a channel target first…

EUR587

Something between 1.2380 & 1.2369? An undercut of the head at 1.2364 would do it? Would you let it slip all the way to the deeply overbought neckline at 1.2332? Can we even get a full back test, the measured move of the impulse wave down to 1.2285?

We shall find out soon…

 


 

R stands for Root

EUR573

 

 


I post a popular article, I get 100-125 visits that day, some people would come back for the next 3 days, on the 4th I have virtually no visitors. Conclusion: people are not interested in checking my EUR/USD current read page, and all works with this are in vain. Therefore this page from now on is merely a store of images, that I keep up for myself to look at on occasions while I am away from home.

 

Buy “15” (2x) =

if ( Period()==30 && RSI2[i]<23 && RSI2[i+1]>44 && RSI2[i+1]<80 && RSI2[i+2]<80 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,i)]<15 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,6,i)]>5 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,6,i)]<90 )

  • 6-sample minimum >5
  • 10-sample minimum <15
  • 6-sample maximum<90
  • current rsi2 <23
  • 44< previous rsi2  <80
  • rsi2[i+2]<80

if (Period()==30 && RSI2[i+1]>35 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,8,i+1)]==RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,10,i+1)]<12 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,9,i+1)]<80 && Close[i+1]>direction ) strength[i]=23;

  • a 10-sample low below 12
  • the previous RSI2 read was the highest in 8 samples
  • the previous RSI2 read did not exceed 80

EUR614

L/F = last failure (derived from 60 minutes values)

DVG4 = last 4h divergence level

CPS = 1h Compass level

*8* = last 8 Ball level (current time frame)

MMR = closest Market Maker Resistance

MMS = closest Market Maker Support

 

1.2382, 1.2521, 1.2546 are on the map.

 

COT>

http://www.cotbase.com/

https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/099741

The big picture as follows (from last year):

EUR527

As for future reference, on the http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/

That sounds like a failure for the first 3 weeks and an incredible rally on the 4th.

EUR528