In the current tracing market, knowing where the previous weekly POCs were is very useful.
I plot the POCs with a green horizontal.
The other thing is that White Oak can occasionally point out things about the COT data, such as the EUR short holdings were nearing an all-time record, and a cover can happen any time now.
This album is progressive rock, alternative, with humor and creative writing. (Sting, Texas, Alphaville, Cure, and perhaps A-Ha, some latin dance.)
Last week the market started trending, which means a full End-Of-Wave sequence marks the end of a move.
This sequence starts with a failed auction. The trending guarantees a higher high. Then the momentum traders take over (after snake ladder 1), making another higher high, then a squirt is likely to make yet another higher high. This last beat was between 27 and 36 pips on the downside in recent times, while the upside was capping out at 0-6 pips. This one exceeded 9.
The flat top-drop (momentum stall) was countered by a volatility boost (V-bottom).
I actually always have a reminder on the screen above the Hepa-Titis line to buy a volatility boost.
A 37 print qualified (32+).
From here, it is only possible to push higher after another V-bottom print (and a failed auction up). The likelihood, though, is a full End-of-wave sequence to the downside.
So, cover shorts at a V-bottom print, or after a double divergence that drops below 17 on the Market Type. They bought the latter down at the bottom, the max. undercut was about 14 pips
The 120 Bollinger on the 30-min is crazy useful. Its median is the 120 SMA.
A lot of ending moves get capped by this BB.
As I mentioned, it is a great filter too. When there is a cannibalised auction on the upside, and the 120BB was not exceeded, expect a higher high before the full turn. If it squirted outside, there would be a lower high later.
Snapshot of my 2 screens. I have 3 30-minute charts and one hourly open most of the time.
The upper monitor is HD. That’s actually a disadvantage when on the cell phone (Google Remote Desktop); with a slower connection, the upper half often stays blank.
The market went positive by different indicators:
Yes, I am still trading the way I always have. I want to be in control of when and how I take losses. This is why most months I have no losing trades; I do not close them out. I hedge and bleed and try to become better at figuring out where a turn occurs.
23 trading days, about $442 per day on closed-out trades. Did my equity grow by as much this month as the balance? No. Last month? Yes. By the same token, I could have a month with a negative balance and positive equity gains, which is what matters ultimately: gaining rope against the broker. Balance is the potential money the broker can claim from you. Equity is yours to take out from.
As for the music stuff, I may have walked into a trap on X; there are these database-collector prompts like: “Say something about Donald Trump in 2 words”. How do you call someone who always lies?
My answers were for those two: mothafckn massmurderer and DJT. Just try to not answer, especially if you live in the US, as you may end up being put on an Elon Musk exclusion list, which is there to make your life impossible by cutting the possibility to make money with music, for instance. Unfortunately, even when these schucks are no longer in power, these decisions will not be automatically reversed. Yes, YouTube Music has such a list with names and emails.
I have made my first and only withdrawal from Distrokid. $217 translated to £138 at my end.
It brings back memories of dial-up Christian-filtered internet and me trying to look for the lyrics of The Pussycat Dolls’ These Boots.
Ask me if I have made a song with these lyrics: These boobs were made for stalking and that’s what you will do, one of these days they’re gonna bounce all over you.
I received this question the other day: With so many EAs, how do you decide which one to use in your trading?
My answer was: Most important is to specialize, not try to do something for every timeframe and every instrument. The second thing is to pay attention to what is currently working. RSI2 signals are not going to go out of style. The rest is never-ending filtering and trying to calibrate.
So yeah, I’ve been working on short entry and exit plots lately, and it is getting complex for sure. For one, the box isn’t always above the high.
For the next step, I had to widen the conditions acceptable for blood diamonds (purple ones). So I decided to include those RSI2 lows that come with considerable volatility expansion, meaning 5 pips outside the 120BB.
The 3rd French album fell under the censorship with the batch. I made timecode inserts in the description to be able to position freely.
Why is it a big deal that I cannot post to the Topic and all other music services? Since there was no money in it, the wider potential audience does not count for much. It’s the specialized, catalogue-like nature that will be missed, the dedicated surface. Whatever is there will remain there, but I cannot add to it. The number of views, the daily growth, the total number of tracks, the quick tab browsing – these are the things I have lost as well as a great deal of motivation.
One thing I noticed about the unhooking (black Arrows on RSI2) on the upside is that the 120BB works as a filter to decide whether there’s gonna be a higher high.
Once the unhooking has occurred (vertical line), a vector program gets selected. V2 is a medium-steep descent capping out in the 4th diamond print, and it has re-entry at RSI2-66 and could see a bounce at E44 if that’s the first thing it hits.
V3 goes outside the 200-Hour bracket. Uh=unhook, uc=undercut – meaning even the unhook is gonna be superseded thanks to the inertia/momentum.
I hate all surveys; I think of them as an attempt to waste some of your life. Yet, here’s one I would not mind getting an answer to.
When Distrokid blacklisted me (supposedly over YouTube’s request), I had 3 albums jammed for good. Not sure what finally short-circuited my musical ambitions, but here are some possible song quotes.
I have violated the freedom of speech; this much is clear.
But was it because of Musk? For attacking billionaires? For being anti-Trump? For being labelled anti-American?
Amin, give me some Ketamine.
“Chancing Life”
Extinct mollusks.
Tusks..
husks... musks.
“The Enemy Is Us”
We have met the enemy, and it is us We have voted for demolition, destruction Self-imposed detention and now failing At water retention Who could have seen this coming? That the nation of discrimination and alienation May become the annihilation-nation?! (How was the last war? It bombed!) Not a drop of mercy, not a grain of sense How many trigger fingers do you see? Mad Max burns for oil again Acid is falling from the sky. Vertical disintegration Invasion-nation, Contracting viruses, Extracting dystopia. (I have an idea... How about the tallest tree, Partner?!) Nobody is going to survive Abort the rescue mission Be AWOL or be killed in action
“Bribes And Let Dies”
Keen on keeping things green? Nice choice of color For that reflecting pool Out of control pricks and dicks Grabbed all the power Pushed the better part of civilization To the brink of destruction Starvation, extinction Hoarding wealth and killing everyone else The worst of all walks of life "Bribes and let dies" Nothing was left for us, darling But two plastic bags This is a house of fog and sand And this is how it ends
“If You Can Break”
I have walked through the wrong door And found amorphous anthropics Plus, maybe some orthopedics Tapping into the psychedelics... Right there, in the middle of the shroom I'd better put on some exoskeleton And leave the reptilian room
This broke my enthusiasm, and probably would end up capping out at 5000 songs in my life instead of 10k.
[Chorus]
If you can break, you can thrive.
If you have never been dead
It's hard to say if you're alive
I believe there are two, maybe 3 more lower lows that are missing.
As a reminder, the End-Of-Wave sequence (a symptom of a healthy, trending market) is made up of a failed auction, two snake ladders, and some squirt (not always present).
Next up, a comparison of two end-of-wave sequences, where the squirt was a shortfall, and so was the peak before the second ladder.
With this kind of End-Of-Wave sequence, it is the hardest to put on adequate volume for the reversal, as there is no higher high getting made, and scaling in does not have a defined, narrow range.
Earlier example:
Now, compared to this previous example that I had, where the breakout also went parabolic (way outside the 120BB), the second high was capped by the 120 BB itself (second blue oval), and there was one squirt. The tiny twist on the current one is that the squirt wasn’t coming from next to the E44, but much earlier, and it did manage to beat the first lower high. About the 70+6 4D chess later.
While on the upside, I’m trying to count 3 waves up – i.e.:
Every black candle was a close of a leg up.
On the downside, I am looking for 4 RSI2 extreme dips and a slight undercut of the 4th. 4D stands for 4 diamonds.
70+6 means 70+ for an RSI2 peak, the 6 is up to 6 pips of a beat, the low risk entry (yellow square) that sets off a low-extremes counter.
Bonus material: some of the dumbstruck markers=unhookings (vertical lines).
During the inside waves and when there is no commitment (no trend), the 4D is not the number of the deep dips, but the actual 30 minutes spent deeply oversold, meaning the actual diamonds.
Also, I have added a filter to the upside commitment; the RSI2 should not reach below 30 in the next 2 prints (RSI2[i-1]>30) – rather counterintuitive.
A remark here is that a song’s quality is never objective. I used to listen to a song every day, Eric Lemon’s remix of a Dave Gahan presentation. I don’t recall ever having issues with the quality.
Recently, I came across it again. I had to check if the song was re-uploaded with a slower bitrate. It was poor. Most of my songs have way better quality than this.
Conclusion: things that you like get a quality upgrade from your mind.
What an IQ test?
When I was young, this was making the rounds. It was attributed to Einstein. Sit down and measure your time. I’ll tell you how long I took next week.
TEST
There are 5 houses, each with a different color. There is one tenant in each, and they all have different nationalities. They all consume different kinds of liquids, smoke different kinds of cigarettes, and have different pets.
The Brit lives in the red house.
The Swede has a dog.
The Danish person drinks tea.
The green house is on the left of the white house.
The tenant of the green house drinks coffee.
The person who smokes Pall Mall has a bird.
The tenant of the yellow house smokes Dunhill.
The tenant in the middle house drinks milk.
The Norwegian lives in the first house.
The person who smokes Blend keeps a cat.
The person who has a horse lives next to the Dunhill smoker.
The person who smokes Blue Master is a beer drinker.
The German smokes Prince.
The Norwegian lives next to the blue house.
The Blend smoker lives next to the person who drinks water.
Question: Which person has a pet fish?
I made 2 new Spandaul Ballet-like songs recently, boosting the collection to 5.
As the evidence shows, that’s the end of a move, not the start of a trend. Weeding it out by adding the second row to an existing filter.
Regarding an End-Of-Wave sequence, I’d like to propose considering some additional meaning/functions of the main events.
A failed ailuction is 5 to 7 diamonds long, and has to arrive on cue – meaning after a squirt in the other direction.
Now, what if we started looking at this event as a commitment to the new direction?
Until a week ago, if you asked me what a trending market was, I probably would have said that market that is being kept out at the 44 EMA. A strong trend at the 16EMA (all 30 minutes), and an extra strong at the 8 EMA. Yeah, I’m no longer liking that approach. A market that manages to print a failed auction without cannibalising it is a trending market. Most markets, therefore, are healthy, trending markets. The current time is a summer doldrum in the Eur/Usd, not healthy.
There is not enough new money coming in; therefore, you don’t get Failed Auction prints, which are accommodating moves by market makers, giving an open-ended fill, yielding to the new money, the more volume king.
I guess next week I’m gonna talk about the E44-E120 zone for a filter. I started typing this up, but I can’t be bothered now to make the plot.
Things are not obvious from the outset, just because now you have some idea of the components.
For instance, the squirt phase? Does it always happen or can it be waived?
A binary question that raises more questions. Is there a hint, a telltale that can be used reliably?
My current idea, based on the following move up, is that the squirt gets called off if the market manages to close back beyond the E-44 to E-120 hot tub.
Similarly, a pronounced spike beyond this zone may suggest that the squirt would fall shorter than a backtest.
I don’t currently think that a new end-of-wave sequence can be initiated (fresh snake count) with a new failed auction in the same direction that the market has been heading.
The point is that there is working knowledge to be built around these little caveats.
One remark about volume:
When the Medallion fund said that they were not taking any outside money, because then they would be moving the market, what they said was: we figured out how to move the market with the current money that we have, thank you very much. In fact, our problem is keeping the focus of attention off of it. And yes, there may be an algorithm, and it could involve a filter of a number of days of consecutive selling (Markov), but the sensitive part would be the volume necessary, and dosing it right, so that it does not pop out. The Midas touch. Hiring a lot of PHD’s was a sleight of hand.
The pteridophyte doesn’t rustle if the wind isn’t blowing it (Hungarian folk wisdom).
Rodolfo* used to say: watch my hand, because I’m cheating.
I now have 7 trackss above 1k views. Salt and Pepa is gonna be the 8th soon.
Something new?
& below is Dave Gahan making the Basildon accent world famous.
*: Rodolfo was a Hungarian magician with amazing sleight of hand. He used to smuggle in things from behind the Iron Curtain that he put into the customs agent’s pockets for the duration of a search, and then took them back.
The diamond counter speaks of a possible bottom forming most recently. There is a delay in the count, so those 3 at the end are only gonna be counted after the open.
The most important reason would be the current place within the end of the wave sequence.
The first leg up went like this:
A= important, failed auction. Sn = snake ladder, prerequisite: higher high first. Sq = squirt.
The second blue box was a money flow overheat, as Oscar Taglioni would put it, a flat top-drop. The cure for a momentum stall is adding to volatility first.
The diamond jam on the downside did not qualify for a failed auction; it was cannibalised. 12 diamonds are too many to be considered: it is not the start but the end of something. It was like when the Trump administration found a cannibal on an airplane who started eating himself. Just like that.
Now, the down move had its two snakes, but the squirting fell short of the low by 12 pips. Usually, you come at least within 4.
Since the money flow printed an extreme (=scrape level), there was something to build on. A case where the low was not the end of a wave. Kind of bullish.
An i-buy works as a counter move for at least 42-45 pips…
I heard the other day that robot was a Hungarian word, and it meant slave. From what I remember, robot meant the peasant bartering work for stay during feudalism, and to me, that isn’t slavery.
This one is gonna have some segments, if you want the meat, go to the third block.
Segment 1
Here is a feature I did not know the lift button indicator could do:
The lift buttons are the circled RSI2 prints (when there are enough diamonds mined in the opposite direction), resulting in a lift station (green rectangle), and the last one gets a far-end highlight with the horizontal line plot.
What was bearish on buying the lift station, a brief fake out of the closing line, and a V-bottom?
Segment 2
About the mean reversion prompts on the daily.
We are talking about the little green arrows pointing up.
What do you know, yet another RSI2 signal.
///lift & first day rejection
if (RSI2[i+1]<7 && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[i+1]<RSI2[i+2]
&& High[i+1]<High[i+3]){
ObjectCreate("Brachta"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Low[i+1]-50*Point);
ObjectSetText("Brachta"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(241), 32, "Wingdings", clrDarkGreen);
if (Low[i+1]>Low[i+2]-50*Point) ObjectSetText("Brachta"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(233), 32, "Wingdings", clrBrown);
Briefly about the 42 signals received.
There were only 2 that did not result in instant mean reversion (circled); they were followed by inside days, so your confirmation towards a sure shot mean reversion after the plot appears is that the next day makes a higher high.
Since we are talking Eur/USD, mean reversion means the return inside the 9-day EMA Band. Obviously, in an uptrend, the reversion is just the first part of the move up, in a downtrend, it is a fade, and in a mixed market, some reaction is likely there.
The typical length of a mean reversion is 48-52 hours. 15 hours was the shortest I saw. In 4 days, the EMA itself may catch up with the highs.
If you want an analog based on the mean perversion, this is what I think may happen next:
I considered before surrendering a rent that yielded me not much in return, meaning £140 less yearly pay, and all of this blog, all of its content, erased. It was nice to hear myself out loud sometimes and catch some flawed thinking, but there were stretches of no visits, particularly last year. Now I have random people scattered around the world, 3-4 typically per day, intermittent outbursts of interests, and if I manage to prevent some self-harm or a loss of life by providing something tangible, something real, I have done my job.
There are 4 people that I individually tag with every article. One is in India, he is a programmer, he appreciates what I am doing, but of course would by default want to trade Gold.
There are 3 other guys on WhatsApp, 2 Hungarians, one Lithuanian, and none of them cares to click on my goodwill, trying to provide them with what to trade and how. They buy Bitcoin and or trade Etherium (Ether = Nothing).
Segment 3 – the end of a Wave.
A mean perversion is a painful (a mean, not clean, hurdy-jerky move back to the mean, if you know what I mean).
The ref line is the median of the 9-day EMA. The lows were tagged already.
An End Of A Wave has 3 components. A failed auction (blue rectangle), 2 snake ladders (blue lines), and likely a squiring phase.
Let’s look at the last 4 examples, and just take my word for the rest.
The squirting may not result in higher high / lower low during extreme volatility compression (BB120), but a shortfall from the high/low by mere 3-4 pips. The snake ladders are the 30 to 70-zone slide through on the RSI2, but on the upside, I would allow for a little shortfall on the second, as long as it made a second higher high first beyond the failed auction. The downside displacement I use for the squirt box is 20-36 pips.
Every counter move until an End Of A Wave sequence plays out is a mere setback.
There was 0% chanche of anyone ever figuring out what I just told you. I guess I beat the odds.
This is June, with 2 more days left to go. I am worth listening to.
Made some new Sting songs and a critically acclaimed album (Hard Note), and today I would be finishing a Disco LP.
I like these visuals. Imagine staring at a cell phone screen, trying to determine how many times RSI2 printed below 7.5.
////diamond up
if (RSI2[i]>92.5){
ObjectCreate("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i], 86);
ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrDimGray);
if (RSI2[i]>98) {ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrPurple);
}
}
////diamond down
if (RSI2[i]<7.5){
ObjectCreate("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i], 26);
ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrDimGray);
if (RSI2[i]<2) {ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrPurple);
}
}
All of a sudden, we can talk about undercuts in terms of progression diamonds. So when I say, maximum 3 more undercuts, a 2-pip undercut may not qualify, if it were a single diamond, thus there is no horizontal line print.
An auction stretching over 5 or more diamonds is a failed auction. It should receive up to 3 more progression diamonds. I circled the failed auctions in blue.
As you can see, time is probably the most important element of trading.
The handling of the Ellipses, the fact that on every zoom they become a different size, is terrible, but this is what we have to work with.
A failed auction does not have to receive a beat if the move is a correction.
The move is back to the yellow lines (auto plot) – those are made by the 30-minute closes; a green connected to a red or a red connected to a green hump on the Market Type.
I would expect a drop, a Wave 5 down, but I am not certain that it would make a lower low. At the moment, I’m thinking 1.1428-1.1413 would be a safe area to tilt bullish, but at lest neutral.
Do not trade. Trading should be the last thing on your mind.
Run a broker. Sell the customer base. Make software.
A successful broker, like Péterffy Tamás, could ultimately achieve a net worth of 100 billion USD.
A successful (& corrupt) trader could ultimately achieve a net worth of 8 billion USD, but for that, he would have to be next door to Soros György (Schwartz at birth) at a historical moment in time, and later the inside info would find you.
See, the wealth machine is like this: the more wealthy you are, the more corrupt you become.
The fairy tale “me against the word” making bank, F the broker stories are all made up.
The most successful “traders” either make money with inside info or engage in a pump&dump (from Ackman to Trump & all the shady Crypto stuff); alas, they are scammers.
Sosnoff uses a euphemism for losers, suckers; he calls them “customers”.
A broker knows full well that even hedging out their risk of the retail customers’ bet is a surplus. You can be provided with the best tools, all the information in the world, and yet ultimately you would end up hanging yourself with your habits and mistakes. The bookie-broker gets to erase the board and keep what you had.
Ira knows this very well. All the broker has to do is to encourage trading, feed the appetite.
You are either gonna overcommit yourself, martingale to death, or pull a fat finger. The more active you are, the faster this becomes reality.
The broker is scamming you in a more laid-back style, but for all of your worth.
Think about it, as a forex / CFD, you can only win what your broker has and is willing to part with.
So when Mr. Baldsteen (delicate combo of Dan Blizerian & Cinderella) says that he was up 10 million at the beginning of the Covid break, even if this were true, that probably would have meant all the revenue for the last few years for TD 365, everyone go home now, we’re closing down.
The conflict of interest should be clear in your mind. Your gain is the broker’s loss.
Remember when Leon Besson said to Natalie Matilda that you must learn close combat at last? That’s what I am working on this weekend.
L=leg, uc=UnderCut, ac=AboveCut, bb=BreakoutBuy
Music? Getting near 200k views on the 2 channels. That’s close to 100 / song on average. 4 comments in total, all negative. One out of revenge, 2 citing AI slop, one telling me in Uzbek to kill myself.
The two late bloomers that started motoring like crazy recently:
I’ve been making punk disco mostly, although I’m not sure that is an actual genre.
ForexFore - Internals, indicators, algorithmic trading 