The Sweetest Regression

Oh, brother.

I had to add an RSI2 filter to the Umpire, not to leave it being too ubiquitous. (The Umpire Strikes Back?)

The Shakalak zUlU is a terminal of a corrective wave, as it ends in strength. No filter for fractal. No sleep till Brooklyn.

            if (RSI[i]>upper2[i] && RSI[i]>72 && High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)+50*Point && Close[i]<High[i]-30*Point && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+2] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+3] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+4] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+5] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+6]){
               ObjectCreate("Utmost"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+890*Point); 
               ObjectSetText("Utmost"+DoubleToStr(i), "U", 34, "Impact",  Purple);
            if (RSI[i]<lower2[i] && RSI[i]<30 && RSI[i]>22 && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)>2200*Point  && Close[i]>Low[i]+50*Point  && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+2] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+3] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+4] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+5] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+6]){
               ObjectCreate("Utmost"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-40*Point); 
               ObjectSetText("Utmost"+DoubleToStr(i), "U", 34, "Impact",  Purple);

Show off top. What’s next? Ground zero is the Weekly E-21. A nove of 45+ pips below the weekly S3 would mean a full left rudder. A lot of work to do. Low 1.06xx, this has not changed.

The steepest correction: the U-turn is quite obvious.

4x stretch was achieved, as I suggested it should & a LEMA happened to be the limiter.

Sweet & perfect bounce ftom the C_ cover level – happens to be the E-9D aka Green River; wave 2 of Wave 1 down is printing. Be extra careful with taking any longs.

At tomorrow’s open (10 PM GMT) the embedding would be lost.

1.0850 was hit on 13 out of the last 16 trading days.

Next stop the cyan doji.

Oh, Blagger.

The Terminal Terminal

(bouncing off the trendline started by the megaphone of the bear market)

What is missing here?

Spare the tension, it is the show off top.

If you look at the previous terminal terminal, the was a little detail there.

Not only price managed to match the 2nd Check Point defined by the push, but managed to make a 25+ pips beat beyond that point. So despite of 2 weeks having been transpired, the ink may not be dry on that echo just yet.

Clue #2: flat top – drop.

Also known as three domes and a house on the peak.

The risk off level is 1.0899. A call in (25 pips into the move) would prompt an 80+ pips target.

Clue #3&4:

The market is sttaying with embedded daily stochastic. This cancels the downside momentum.

The reversal divergence may be extended to a 3rd peak. Price is currently bouncing off the 19 EMA.

Clue #5:

There should be some stretch printing from the Green River, we are simply squatting on it. A 3x stretch is at 1.0976, 4x is at 1.1015.

Clue #6:

The British Telecom on the downside makes for a terminal. Price bounced off violently from the dirt box made by the previous B print on the upside.

For a finale, we should see a B and up to 3 T-s. That is 4 different 4-hour fractals, all of them outside the 4-Hour 30-sample BB. Days out.

At last, there is the conditioning. They are keep on telling you that a 50 bp hike would be a surprise, and the market would sell off. What if the market would sell off, but not before that show off top print?

1.0977+25 pips?

Let The Momentum Play

So I went down the path of exploring the momentum checkmark flag.

I applied a 30-SMA filter & used the idea given from 2 posts back to come up with some targets.

The results seem certainly surprising.

   if (RSI2[i]>84 && (RSI2[i+2]<12.5 || RSI2[i+3]<12.5) && Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i) && Close[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2)){
      ObjectCreate("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,0, Time[i], 0);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, clrLimeGreen );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_WIDTH, 4 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_STYLE, 2 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );
        ObjectCreate("Pitusi"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)+140*Point);
        ObjectSetText("Pitusi"+DoubleToStr(i), "[->"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)+50*Point,4),4), 22, "Impact", clrGreen); 

There were a couple more things that occupy my mind, such as acknowledging the market in the era of overwhelming CTA presence, risk off taper, framework to follow. The market is evolving, so should you.

The 2 weeks is up for the allowance of the Echo.

A retun to the weekly S2 would mean low 1.06xx

Buying In Progress

Trading, but not the way you know it.

Let’s go backwards.

Exit signal: 30-min money flow divergence.

Health check of buying is initial momentum check by hourly RSI2 HL2. You want to see a straight shot from oversold to overbought. You can find below broken momentum examples as well.

Finding the trade…

First, side promotion.

The distance between the E414 High or Low and E712 on 30 mins. 26 pips or more is confidence inspiring.

Well there’s at least 5 different favoured entries. They all come with some provisory distance / target, but they could be ridden to the money flow divergence especially with a good kick off momentum.

Only going to discuss a bit here about the Local Buy or EX. See if you can spot it. Don’t forget the promoted side.

What normally happens is that the EX would be the low, unlike on the example above with some coasting.

   if (excess[i]<0){
  ////lower excess
      if (iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,216,i+2))>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))) {
         ObjectCreate("Miezzz"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], 4); 
         ObjectSetText("Miezzz"+DoubleToStr(i), "X", 42, "Impact", clrPurple);     
         ObjectSet("Miezzz"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 0 );
              ObjectCreate("Miezi"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],Low[i]+490*Point);
        ObjectSetText("Miezi"+DoubleToStr(i), "[->"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i]+490*Point,4),4)+", "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i]+550*Point,4),4), 22, "Impact", clrGreen); 
          if (i<450){
          ObjectCreate( "TRIAGEN"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_HLINE, 0,  Time[0], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))-20*Point);
               ObjectSet("TRIAGEN"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, clrBrown );
               ObjectSet("TRIAGEN"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_WIDTH, 3 );
               ObjectSet("TRIAGEN"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT, false );
               ObjectSet("TRIAGEN"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_STYLE, 1 );
           if (tdrivedn[ArrayMaximum(tdrivedn,140,i+1)]<1){
         //   ObjectCreate(0,"TRIAGE"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TRIANGLE,0,Time[i],iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i))-80*Point,Time[i+4],iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i))-80*Point,Time[i+4],iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i)));
         //   ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGE"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray);  ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGE"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,1); ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGE"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1); 
            ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGES"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrRed);  ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGES"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,1); ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGES"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1); 
            ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGEZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray);  ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGEZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,1); ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGEZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1); 
             ObjectCreate("ANGL"+i, OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],  iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i))-550*Point+38*Point);  
             ObjectSetText("ANGL"+i,"              "+NormalizeDouble(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i))-550*Point,4), 16, "Impact",  DarkGreen);  

             ObjectCreate("ANGLi"+i, OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],  iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i))-660*Point+38*Point);  
             ObjectSetText("ANGLi"+i,"              b_"+NormalizeDouble(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,8,i))-660*Point,4), 16, "Impact",  DarkGreen);  
            ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGEX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGreen);  ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGEX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,1); ObjectSetInteger(0,"TRIAGEX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1); 
        if (iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,78,i+2))>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))) {
         ObjectCreate("Miezz"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], -2); 
         ObjectSetText("Miezz"+DoubleToStr(i), " E", 22, "Impact", clrBlue);     
         ObjectSet("Miezz"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 0 ); 

Yea, I need to investigate myself what I did here, but there is cerainly a 78-sample lower low for the 3D (shadowed E), E stands for excessive reading (), I use a filter for having to be outside the local Bollinger Band for the green projection label above, ie:

  if (RSI2[i]>21 && RSI2[i+1]<21 && RSI2[i+1]>5.5 && RSI2[i+3]>RSI2[i+1] && excess[ArrayMinimum(excess,24,i)]<0 && excess[ArrayMaximum(excess,24,i)]==0) {
        ObjectCreate("Lemez"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 10); 
       if (iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,24,i))==iLow(symbol,0,i+1) && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)>200*Point) {ObjectSetText("Lemez"+DoubleToStr(i), "SB-"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i]-100*Point,4),4), 22, "Impact", clrGreen);
        ObjectCreate("Lemezi"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],Low[i]+540*Point);
        ObjectSetText("Lemezi"+DoubleToStr(i), "[->"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i]+540*Point,4),4), 22, "Impact", clrGreen); 

Excess values:

 if (RSI2[i]<96.5 && RSI2[i+1]>96.5 && RSI2[ArrayMinimum(RSI2,6,i+1)]<80) excess[i+1]=1;
  if (RSI2[i]>5.5 && RSI2[i+1]<5.5 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,8,i+1)]>20) excess[i+1]=-1;

A last advice of course is as always, Max, don’t have sex with your ex.

Fold Back The Night

This is now becoming an everyday feature. I don’t know who or when or why invented it.

Figure 1:

After the Qanon print there was a Wave 5 up, then 5 waves down for a Wave 1. Once the core Wave 2 printed, a dirt box of liquidity was made beyond it. A box like this can be as wide as 50 pips. When they folded the Wave 2 onto itself they managed to push price another 40 pips out setting back the starting point of Wave 3.

Figure 2:

This wave 2 is the wave 2 of the Wave 3 down. Similarly, they folded the wave back and managed to push the rock back up the hill beyond the core point by 10 pips. It is a vain battle but they cause immense pain and panic with this unsustainable move. Against gravity, against momentum.

A hint as to where the air benders can take price to is a hourly 216-sample HL2 BBwith 2.5 standard deviation.

Unbreak my curls.

RSI and stochastic divergence.

Back to weekly S2 starting now.

Almost 50%

Quarterloo Slagthuset

2 weeks notice: I’ve noticed that the Echo has to arrive within 2 Weeks of a push, so there is a time out function, even if price does not manage to exceed the push level, it has to return to base.

The base is one of the 3 support / resistance levels. On the way down the typical return line was the R3 (red) discounting the last push down that came from the R2 and the first blood where price printed the megaphone, price only mad it back to R1. The market finally flipped after the R3 line was exceeded by 45 pips. The next leg down stopped at the 2std window envelope making a higher low (interrupted red).

On the way up the house has uniformly been the S1 level, making this incline way steeper and calling this move a Bear Market rally.

The idea behind the purple boxes is to highlight 2 levels where the echo could arrive from.

A return should be in progress, but where to? 1.0637 is S1. 1.0557 is S2. I am certainly curious of what kind of bounce the pro volume wick would give from that ever quoted 1.0733-1.0728 band, but I am certainly not anticipating a new push (9-sample higher high) resulting from it. The previous echo was a time out, and this last one did not make it to the first check point @ 1.0892 – shy by 7 pips. As of now, there is a definite undelying weakness.

      if (push[i+1] && Close[i+1]<iMA(symbol,0,21,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1) && Low[i]<Low[i+1]){
          ObjectCreate("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-40*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), "D", 29, "Webdings", clrMagenta);
      if (push[i+2] && Close[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,21,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1) && Low[i+1]>Low[i+2]){
          ObjectCreate("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-40*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), "D", 29, "Webdings", clrMagenta);
    if (push[i+1] && Close[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,21,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1) && High[i]>High[i+1]){
          ObjectCreate("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+1170*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), "D", 29, "Webdings", clrMagenta);
      if (push[i+2] && Close[i+2]>iMA(symbol,0,21,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1) && High[i+1]<High[i+2]){
          ObjectCreate("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+1170*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("Miles"+DoubleToStr(i), "D", 29, "Webdings", clrMagenta);

I was looking for some echo icon, and by random I typed in “D”. The house with the path was rather picturesque for a return home.

Yea, I did this yest>

Candy Dufflebag

Here I slow again on my own.

Parking down the only avenue I’ve ever known.

The big day is here. Options sellers are going to cash in Steaks & Tesla Factories. That’s the Duffler effect of pisding trillions and trillions of dollars on time limited options into the Sacks.

If you did not understand that professional volume candle on the Euro that temporarily took the Euro out of the bear market and placed it on the top shelf neatly, now you must have an idea. Everything is rendered under the juggernaut, the greatest show on Earth, the US stock market, and FX isn’t immune to it either. Look at the volume that is finally settling in the counter party’s hands this evening.

The bottom of the shelf is at 1.0733-1.0728. Despite the momentum being down for 6 trading days, there hasn’t been a need for reinforcement just yet: even the 9-D EMA hasn’t been crossed.

A gap down over the weekend, anyone?

The bigger the sunction device, the bigger the sucking, and the more the sucklings play around with options, the more the game is going to be about expiring them worthless.

FXE is currently a 100 pips above the max pain.

The big move will happen when very few are on board to take advantage of it.

In The Summer Of…

Does this feel like the summer of 67 to you? Is this now both climate and season change?

My next question goes to Elliott Beethoven.

If a Wave 2 cannot exceed the starting point of the Wave 1, and according to my broker on Raw spread it did, on fixed spread it didn’t, then did it?

At last we take a look at the skidding component.

Black Flagship Ladyship

Retracing my own steps, the black misstep seems to be about a lower low / higher high with receding RSI2 reading in progress.

Other then the Q-Anon marks (see last blog entry), a bit of daily embedding and a black misbeat seems to be the constellation you are looking for. Nick Rhodes says so.

The Black Peter cards originated from Germany.

Semafor, you don”t have to put on the red light…

Anon In Q Major

You know it was coming, B, T and Q next.

When I was working at the Business Design Centre, my friend from Czech was calling me Queen Bee. This made me think that although I was never told where Quimby originated from, I may had a hunch.

Anyways, one other notre-hunch I had were that everything is about rate of change in charting and so weakness is what you are looking for at the end of an impulse structure.

You will need 2 different Bollinger Bands for filters and new lows and new highs to find the Queen of the Bi-cycles.

 if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,216,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]==iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,200,i))){
        ObjectCreate("Telecom"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+380*Point); 
         ObjectSetText("Telecom"+DoubleToStr(i), "Q", 44, "Impact",  Crimson);
         if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,216,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]==iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,200,i))){
        ObjectCreate("Telecom"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]+180*Point); 
         ObjectSetText("Telecom"+DoubleToStr(i), "Q", 44, "Impact",  Crimson);

I want to ride my tricycle…

Too Much Of Heaven

So there were only a handful of these extra large gaps in the last coupe of years.

One made price gap out of the megaphone.

Another one gapped price from bearsperms market to taurus with an elegant 200 pips never looking back.

Now, think like a market maker. How can you flip the CTAs at once if not with a large gap? Utilize against them what they are doing as default: pushing price at an extreme ever further in the easy direction.

I’m saying all this because I believe that the CTA entanglement would have to be resolved this way.

Think twice holding USD shorts into the weekend.

Today there’s the max pain FXE 99.50+ peg.

Nick Rhodes is a very steady performer.