Base Case

My current base case for the Eur/USD is a move down to the red line (Expanding Wedge).

The blue line originated from the other Expanding Wedge that kicked off the bear market and had that gap outside, trying to push back in capital failure.

That said, we are at support and the market separator E-59 is also right here.

A mean reversion was held back again at the Lower Guard rail (in Coral), but the sell off ensued resulted in a slight beat and only 4 hours of consecutive selling versus the previous theme of 10 hours or 9+9 hours.

The 18-sample stochastic reading got pushed back below 3% twice. These numbers don’t really ever sustain.

The mean reversion would have to take price back beyond the E-9 by an extra 40 pips. We are talking 1.0820-1.0830.

From there the third leg could start, but before that some sideways movement would have to relieve the daily oversold conditions.

I think a 50+ stochastic reading (and an overbought RSI2) would be ideal to kick off the travel for the remainder of the distance.

Things would probably happen rather slowly: the B leg up would take a week and a half perhaps (5-7 days) and the C leg down could take as much as as 4-5 weeks. The B leg ultimately could tag the interrupted line at 1.0910.

By the way, the mentioned ABC stucture down what makes up the larger C leg.


Time without time.

It’s A Zoo

Building some reminders. I.e. how would you know that the current move would have 5 legs versus an ABC correction?

Time. Keep on ticking into the future.

If price makes it outside the Bollinger (measured from a terminal point, not just any leg) within 16 hours, there would be 5 legs (at least).

9 more hours to make up the mind.

Gonna go light on material today, entertainment instead.


The Tale Of The Tail

Your Honor, I would like to say in my defense, that however slowly, I am catching up.

2 spotted features of the end tail:

The tail starts from outside the 30 sample BB (large circle), it breaches the 8EMO in the middle (small circle) and has two periods that are comparable in length. Case:

& joint:

My original hypothesis based on short term history was that the Daily S2 / R2 has to be plotted for a break to transpire (remember, I tied the plotting to the Red and Green sticks), but apparantely a breach is just as possible if only the shadow of the line is in place.

In plain English, the No Daily Support message should also remind about the recurring exploitation until the symmetrical sequence pops up.

I lifted the Guard Rail plot idea from the LEMA30 and now the lower one is plotted in Coral.

Now I even understand the extra volatility’s purpose after a Loneliness sequence: it was needed to mark up the beginning of the tail.

I keep forgetting about my LEMA plots and how useful they can be. This shit is difficult.

M; Period.

What happens after a measuring leg (M) prints? A mean reversion.

I personally call the E9 HL2 Daily the mean (in Red). 414 sample HIGH to LOW band on 30 mins, 207 sample on the Hourly (usually displayed in light Green as in Green River).

I actually have come up with the inclusion of the current volatility to get a more precise truning point for an overshoot, as the image shows below. 1.08714 looks like a good number for a commitment.

Another aiming function was finding the swing low at a 3x fluctuation maximum stretch and using the value at the opposit end of the Green River, image below.

This image also shows how price is being kept from a mean reversion by selling the Lower Guard Rail (Yellow Green / Chartreuse).

See, the mean reversion is usually not stopping dead at the mean, but rather going to the location where the mean was at the moment of making the volatility crush call. (Purple line is 3x fluctuation maximum out, plots 1.0885)

It is also a statistical fact that a mean reversion takes about 2 days on average (1 to 3), see first image – so now you have some idea about the by when.

Do not let the current “No Volatility” fool you. The market has just regained its composure after 5 waves up and another 5 waves down.

Not what Elliott would teach you, that’s for sure.

The volatility breach reversal YellowGreen box highlights the end of Wave 5 (or Wave 3).

This is a very capable, rested market with a 57+ Ci reading. A break on the upside (Risk Off) level is at 1.0849, and you could have a fake out move for up to 25 more pips, therefore I would say 1.0875 is the most likely target for this Wave 2 up.

L 3 I

The 3 ingredients for trading are:

Wave Structure, Time and Scaling (in & out).

Of these 3 the second one that has been the hardest for me to figure out.

Noone has anything on the subject. What is up with the 5-hour metric? How is support and resistance made? Not by volume.

Emini-watch is looking in the right place, but takes neasuring time overtly complicated with his sine wave triplets.

I’ll just leave the subject hanging for now, and talk about the Black Natural and the Black in the Magenta Nick Rhodes prints.

The downside natural is the following:

///downside 
////black natural
   if ((Low[i]<Low[i+1] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+1] && (RSI2[i+1]<2 || RSI2[i+2]<2 )) || (RSI2[i+1]<2 && RSI2[i]>2 && RSI2[i+6]<2)){
         score[i]=-4; 

…and has no relevance currently.

(B: 1.0746) in blue

The Black in the Magenta is the following:

if ((Low[i]<Low[i+1] && RSI2[i]>RSI2[i+1] && ((RSI2[i+1]<4 && RSI2[i+1]>2) || (RSI2[i+2]<5 && RSI2[i+2]>2))) || (RSI2[i+1]<5 && RSI2[i]>5 && RSI2[i+6]<5)){
         score[i]=-3; 

Translation: RSI2 is rising and the previous RSI2 was a magenta print or the one before that was a non-magenta print or the RSI 2 has been waving up and down at the bottom line of 5.

Can this call a bottom? It certainly has before.

The 1.05 low was tested 3 times and the 8th and the 14th days made an attempt on this “black” low and managed a fake out to an extent of 13 and 14 pips.

There was a (B: 1.0519) associated. The actual low was 1.05155 12 days later.

It actually seems more reliable on the downside than the Natural Black, of which there are 3 examples below:

Either way, the theme is that the 19-sample Bollinger high would be hit before the low next, but that’s not to say that the lower one would not be challenged at all, just that price would end up falling short from it. Also, hitting the upper band would take at least 10, at most 19 days.

It is also unusual to see two pro volume candles so close to each other.

New companion logo

Zero Sum Pain

How do you know that you are alive if you’ve never been dead?

New definions for a better work environment.

1 Hour Chart.

An end of an ABC correction is the best entry for a continuation move.

The Loneliness should be measured from an Oversold (<20) / Overbought (>80) RSI2 HL2 reading. It may make a lower low / lower high as part of a giration, but the important parts are: not reaching beyond the BB30 on the other side even at the end of the C print and a challenge of the swing level made by Wave A within 14 hours. You should scale in after the 14th hour and add on the 16th. A Loneliness ABC may only make it beyond the S30 by the end of the C wave and has little counter directional volatility (meaning the B leg is not going to register in the deep field).

Since the B leg did not go deeply oversold, the 14th and 16th hours are of importance. I stamp this kind of a correction with numbers.

A Disregard ABC is not about the number of hours, but i.e. about the B wave going deeply oversold (<12.5) and the C going deeply overbought (>87.5). The C is likely going to get outside the BB30, but it does not have to. Important pieces of this one is starting from deeply oversold / deeply overbought condition and the counter directional leg is attest of the increased volatiliy. There are running flat and explanding flat variations of this one. It should also be said that the next 5-wave structure would not be able to take out the starting point (A) within the first leg.

After a Lonleliness ABC you are likely to get a Disregard one and vice versa.

A Score is getting from one side of the BB to the other within 7 hours.

A Break (in this environment) means a swing high / swing low made over the other half of the BB main line within 7 hours and breaking it within 11.

The current structure did not start from a deeply oversold condition, and after the new low there was a break up. I would think that there should be a 5th wave up before an ABC prints down. There seems to be a continuation divergence between Wave 2 and Wave 4.

Other. After clearing the daily S2 level, there was a 50-hour signal Blockout.

This is how the 3rd set of Red bars was actually the 2nd set.

I now call 20+ hours of buying / selling occuring in an uninterrupted manner on one side of the 8 EMO an Acceleration. It will always come with a follow through (at least one 15-hours block). There has to be a surprise cockfags Break print preceeding.

The danger is still the cyan candle, 1.0873+

Losing the embedding would mean a return to the 20 SMA. Otherwise the E9 +42 pips could be a good sell or the daily R1 at 1.0898.

Going Out With a Spank

My definition of a capitulation currently is starting out with a non CAP print: a daily candle that closes outside the 19-sample bollinger and the 44 sample EMA (HL2), but does not settle back from its end more than 27 pips.

Close[i-1]<Open[i] && Close[i-1]<Low[i]+270*Point && Close[i-1]<iMA(symbol,0,44,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i-1)-100*Point
        && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,19,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_LOWER,i)

What is the point of this if you don’t know where the end of the capitulation would be?

The point is to bring attention to yesterday’s close that was aggressive enough that all the re-balancing got tapped into for a continuation. This could mean having to hedge if you are wrong footed.

What is most important is how the current day would play out. A small bodied doji would be a major exclamation mark. A good sized body would be a major win for the bears especially if they could again afford to sell more at the close.

So a Capitulation is a form of an end game, where the stakes are high.

The next one had a Back & Fill for 2 days, then the Pros decided to cover (Cyan),

There is not a single outcome as you can see.

I ended up putting back a filter that at first looked like a double down on a condition, yet it eliminated a whole bunch of prints.

 && Close[i-1]-Low[i-1]<270*Point

Yes, that’s more like how I always intended it to be.

A fluctuation maximum extra would be my guidance for the reversal, up to 45 pips beyond yesterday’s low. If 50 pips gets exceeded, look for another 100 after that.

This was unusual to see the Green Cap to be broken like that, there may be a slight beat at times, but I have no example of pros doubling down and an overrun like that. At least not on the downside.

Slight beat below if you can call it even that.

Price is sitting on the Weekly S2 as it is getting challenged the first time. The White line is the 21 EMA.

Daily R1 just got adjusted to 1.0898

The pink rabbi says shalom


The rest is just mood enhancer.

Abandoned faces, what are we pimping for?

So get Freddy, get Freddy!

Who wants to live together?

Penguin Park

Alternation of the ABCs. For one just hear me out.

The two signs that won’t be ignored.

After 5 Waves up, 5 Waves down. Equilibrium.

Then…

Little Bit Of Loneliness (16)

16 Hours of Solitary Confinement. Top Bollinger Band isn’t reached in 16 Hours. Time Out Failure.

Then…

Little Bit of Disregard

Se how the RSI2 goes into overbought (87.5) oversold (12.5) and overbought (87.5) plus the C wave gets outside the 30-Sample BB on top.

Then…

Little Bit Of Loneliness (16)

Little Bit of Disregard

Whose turn was it again?

The Downtrend. The Downtrend is where the Volatility Breach Reversals (Green Boxes) get broken. The downtrend will end once a 5 wave move becomes possible: the first 6 hours of buying after a lower low would need to take price over the upper Bollinger Band.

What to expect once the high is in? 10 hours of selling below the 8 EMO, but a lower low at a very minimum.

Proctory Lap

The interptetation of this was 1 0818 + 6-8 pips most likely (1.0824-26) or a bit below

The reality was 1.08205

Now the question becomes, will this down move continue?

The pro volume print made yesterday is bothersome. Normally I would say, Kick Start E9+42 pips.

The wrench in the AI machine is the long wick on the cyan doji.

They could double down on 1.0873. If they don’t, currently 1.0950 is the 109.5 statistical resistance line, and 1.0981 aka R1 would remain a return candidate if no red print would occur on the CounterForce (not likely).

Intricacies Of A Pink Rabbit

You’ve got snails

Pink, as I said before is like a White, but it starts out with an already relatively high energy state, namely 45+ reading. This normally happens at the very end of a move, for all the hurdy jerkiness is happening to gain enough energy to be able to break out of a structure (this mostly means reversal.)

 if (ExtMapBuffer[i+1]>46) ObjectSet("FOCUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPink);

If you look at the sequence of Measuring Leg, Postpartum Mobile and Ecce Hubris, you’ll find that the energy state draws ever higher values. M<P<E (<XX)

It is strongest before the dawn.

You have missed mummifications

It’s not radio science, it is but catching a bit of radio captivity.

Just wait until you can see the white of the pink rabbit’s eye.

Tige of the eyer. It’s never too late to pixellate.

So anyways, I decided to plot the middle of the squeeze boxes in blue just before this happened:

These lines are not hand drawn or after the fact. Try to appreciate the diffrence. I’ll spare you the zoom in.

  if (iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,15,i))-iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,15,i))<360*Point && iLow(symbol,0,i+15)<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+15) &&  iLow(symbol,0,i+14)<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+14) 
    && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,3,i+11))>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+11) 
   && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,3,i+12))<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,10,i))
   //
   
   ){
       ObjectCreate("Frier"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0, Time[i+15], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,15,i)), Time[i], iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,15,i)));
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"Frier"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrCrimson);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"Frier"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_BACK,0);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"Frier"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);
   
    ObjectCreate("Frieri"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_HLINE, 0, Time[i+15], (iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,15,i))+iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,15,i)))/2);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"Frieri"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrBlue);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"Frieri"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_BACK,0);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"Frieri"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);
   }

When someone draws a million lines and nothing specific

versus my Rinky Dinky Pinky says, price would turn around in these 30 pips, likely within 6-8 pips of the lower value, appreciate the difference.

Pinkerton Detective Agency

Ama living in a Brooks, ama living in a Gerhard Brooks.

Being Zilch Malchowich is all about wearing comfort socks. Try to get rich selling socks and chewing gum in the Philippines.

Image below showing double resistance above.

RSI14 HL2 was high enough to flip the direction with a 2 std dev breach.

You are in luck, as I decided not to talk about Pippoletto’s disregard for people listening to his show. He always seems to start the broadcast when the parner takes a turn for the shower, right after sex and this can clearly be heard in the background.