What an amazing turnout, welcome, welcome people! Lots of Cheap Trick fans, aye?
First I have to ask, is there anyone who have learnt to draw 3 different trend lines? Leave the class immediately, you are in the wrong life!
What is it, Ira, you have a doctorate from Bollinger bands? I see friends shaking heads. You are ok. to stay, we do not discrimate against anyone. Help me work the next generation about embedding.
The Duran Duran sandwiches are courtesy of Nino Firetto.
Bravi Jono, no gambling in the back rows, put away your BlocFi!
Pain is so close to pleasure & train is so close to treasure, so let’s start!
The market ended the prior channelling move with the helipad.This is the area from the fractal with the Gray line to the next fractal, known as the beat.
Ending the channelling does not mean that the market cannot make a beat.
There is a new channelling move pending currently, but it has to be confirmed first either by hitting 1.2160 on the upside or crossing below the E-89 and crossing back up or failing to cross back up is for confirming channelling to the downside. (Price has so far stayed below the last Faith Healer’s moratorium zone.
When the market is channelling, channelling rules apply.
When the market is embedded, embedding rules apply.
All other times default to convenience trading.
Convenience be it opportunistic relies on conditions providing some edge.
Seven and Eleven, Seven and Trigger, Sven and Northman are all the same thing.
The E-16 has a dark side, facing the moon (away from the mean). The Seven fractal is an RSI2 hitting Seven or 100-Seven depending on the direction if the distance exceeds 36 pips from the E-16.
This provides the baseline level reading.The divergent leg, or 11 would print an RSI2 reading that falls shy of the Seven’s, but price would travel further to set up a divergent beat. The beat has a tendency to be around 16 pips.
Now, the Sun facing side also operates on convenient basis, but it is not E-16 that it uses as a reference, but the E67M, which I sometimes refer to as zero lambda.
The second pair’s divergent leg did not make a lower low, yet it qualified with its higher RSI2 reading as a double bottom.
Now that I am permanently stationed on the Moon, you can expect this entry to be every bit as tactical and impractical as all the others were.
To lead up the subject of understanding the market, the first thing to say is when you feel like you are 2 steps behind, you are a 100 mile stones behind, what feels like 1 step late is 10 mile stones away and you may never make it if can’t make the next move before the market does.
See I’ve been trying to catch up with this 6 weeks long polarised barreling move in the Eur/Usd. There are plenty of open questions associated with channeling. Starting is easy to spot. Where does it end?
It comes as a surprise, that a channeling move seems to be only able to terminate in a leg 6 or a leg 9.
Leg 6 is easier to digest: the counter directional volatility has to increase to the point of taking back price beyond the E-89, at which point the scale may be tipped over resulting in a move that falls shy of the outer limit. In the case shown below leg 7 starts with a higher high and ends with a higher low – reversing the direction completely.
What is the story with leg 9? Leg 9 may be a terminal as well utilising every drop of the increased volatility, it is designed to be able to land a pod after the 2nd, sometimes the 3rd fractal, but the extended time play may end up triggering additional seismic activity which would start a new count up sequence. The blast off is a sure fire when the leg 9’s outer limit gets crossed over.
My way of making a list of daily levels of course is coming from the 7- sample choppiness reaching for a sexually transmitted STandard Deviation breach.
Good old CI keeps on breaching & plotting those tomato and chartreuse levels.
What if the market is not in tracking, but mapping mode or values are outside the maximum sample size?
My answer to that are the gray markers. You want to see price away from the mean by at least 2 fluctuation maximums. You want the leg to accomplish a swing length of 50 pips+.
What does SCF! stand for? It’s ok, I want you to regret asking questions. It stands for Surprise CockFags!
On the image below the moonpig had no space for mopping – errr I mean, the Orion had no runway to land on the Moon, Mr. McLane. You can almost hear the moon patrol’s warning: pull out!
The first gray block gets the move going the second finishes it. In reality the previous, higher fractal is what matters, but I have only rudimentary filters for now.
One more image to show the breathe in, breathe out effect.
Note that the Eagle failed to land on the Orion after the breathe in: there was no landing made, unlike the breathe out, which made a helipad.
Son of a barrel of a gun! I screwed up the leg count in my 7,8,9 Rule entry. I thought that leg 6 stayed inside the barrel. Nope, there was a misfire first.
The cover 1/2 short low was the beginning of leg 6, not 7.
Leg 7, 8, 9 of the channeling move are trying to accomplish 2 things:
make good progression between the first 2 fractals whilst making a new High or Low upon printing the first fractal
ultimately they are aiming to re-start the leg-count sequence by a new rip achieving channeling strength
This was a gift from the market:
The E207 lit on these images just means that the Green River is asking for the ball back -> Mean Reversion pending.Sticking to what I said about the 9th leg on both counts in the Day Ralio: Channeling Principles entry
Finally, let’s look at what was wrong with the previous Leg 7 down:
the 1st fractal did not make a NEW Low. This in combination with the falling knife prior meant that the bear party was over.
Channeling is what makes a sustained move possible for the market.
The market is in general is unable to sustain moves (from a consolidation mean) back to back that would exceed the previous 3 days average by more than 30 percent.
Channeling is a condition where different rules apply.
A start of a channeling move on a chart shows up as price separates from the E-16 HL2 hourly EMA and gets stopped and reversed on the next 2 attempts when it tries to return to it.
As for a screen plot / hedging level search I am looking for a 20-bar sequence where price is unable to randezvous with its suppressor other half. However, this does not immediately confirm the direction.
The first image below shows a separation that is 20 bars long.
The channeling move is confirmed one of 2 ways: the high or low (high in this case) gets violated by 10 pips. This is the channel on level – also the basis of a hedging buy stop.
The other way to confirm the channeling move in the prompting direction is when after the 3rd dip price crosses back above E-89.
Red arrow = confirmation.
It is also possible that the channeling move gets confirmed in the opposite direction.
After the channeling is on, you need to start counting.
It is a good idea to plot E32 (yellow), E89 (deep pink), and perhaps E67 (maroon – I usually plot both the highs and the lows on this last one).
Notice on the image below that the first 3 entries were pushes above the E-16, the next 3 were pushes above the E-32.
The first 6 pushes are happening with counter volatility being on the mute. These legs if not always individually, but as a block for sure make the trend continuation possible (New Lower Lows).
Pushes from 8 to 9 are the tricky part, for they come with higher volatility.
I numbered the first 3 dips below the E-89 as Zeros. 7 may not make a higher high by itself, but again, as a group of 3 they may overcome the volatility and make that break.
What comes after a 9 count? Decision time: can another channeling sequence be triggered? At times>
Here the market is already desperate. The 2nd sequence of 3-dips were duds, they were wasted shots with no strength whatsoever.
7 made a marginal higher high, and actually came from the E-67, it did not make it to the E-89. Number 8 put up some serious effort to halt and reverse a freight train coming with speed. Will this separation make it to 20 hours without touching the E-16 to trigger yet another sequence? I doubt it. This is why I said:
Take note of the beat made over the terminal end of the #7 leg: 1.1995. #8 made it to 1.2048. What does 53 pips remind you of? How about 45 pips fluctuation maximum plus 8 pips failed break out?
Hmm… A managed to make a whole article about channeling without mentioning anything about golden tails (tough cookie level high lights) and the shaded projection zones triggered by out of sequence LL / HH fractals. Ain’t I am good?
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Wherever I lay my principles…
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Falling knife moment on the upside
Alas the market managed to stay off the E-16 & printed the shape (terminal move.)
what was missing for the knife was the level: the next one up was 1.20657 in green – live & learnIt is great about the MT4 that regardless of the timeframe plotted, data can be accessed for a different one, in this case the daily.
Feel free to skip this intro-rant, I have a lecture of substance right after. Look for the separator line.
Fragile, like a mental in your state.
This is England, we don’t go anywhere without slogans
So let’s put up
Feel good, but trade better
– next to –
Share and Enjoy
Have your say and eat it too
Like a kiss from the Waitrose
And let’s go all out on what (Tricia) McMillan did when they spent their cancer support money on covering up red buses in green saying “A life with cancer is still life”
This is wrong on so many levels.
1. For starters, spend that advertising money on cancer research instead.
2. A bus with stupid slogans is still a bus.
3. Life, don’t talk to me about life.
For an Eastern European, anecdotes, like these ring home: – What is the matter with you, you look like the life!
In fact, in Hungary the average male life expectation was 56 years not long ago. My father lived to be just that. Maybe that’s the final solution to pension funds, Ripley. I knew there 3 people who committed suicide during my 27 years of stay, and knew 2 in the US in 12 years. I worked for one, of them the other was a neighbor – tenant, not 3 but 1 door down. I must be a bad influence.
The point here is that it is best not to be reminded of life.
I had the perfect hand going into April: 3.6 lots long, no shorts. I ended up dumping out the longs prematurely, at a loss, and went extra long 4.4 lots 600 yards from the goal post. If only I was paying any attention to what I’m about to teach you.
I should had taken my 1000% gains for 8 moths, close out everything and tell the broker to put me in a Pro account. I can’t seem to think straight when they are constantly ripping you off with swap. Now I’m being penalized with time. The take away here is to have short term goals made clear.
There are some old cliches such as that an uptrend is made of higher highs and higher lows, and that topping is a process while bottoming is an event.
Now, in the foot-light of the channeling research we are trying to determine where a channeling move ends.
Thanks to the previous blog entries you have gained practice in spotting the start of a channeling move.
What you are looking for afterwards (in our first example – the uptrend) is a Lower Low, which is going to be followed by a Higher High or multiple higher highs without price making any significant progress. An additional 16 or so pips is not progress, that is merely half of a normal fluctuation size.
Highest High was higher by 19.3 pips.
Nobody taught me about what a fluctuation size is and what half of that was good for. These things are my own findings, and there is no literature elsewhere on the subject. I do realize how strange it may sound to hear from someone frequently taking 2.5 pip gains that 16 pips equals no progress – that’s how life is: a mix of a bunch of things that seem to contradict each other on face value.
Lower Low was lower by 7.2 pips
Fractals can help to spot the change in the sequence, but 1H may be to insensitive to do this – unless you are using my Modified Fractals routine – the source was posted among the blog entries. I only changed the rhombus (boy’s best friend) size and the color for the current image.
You are not going to be gaining anything extra from going below 30 mins, only lose orientation.
This last channeling push could only facilitate the first set of 3 dips, thanks to that lousy LL mistake.
channeling is on when the 2nd outer fractal gets exceeded by more than 4 pips or if the 3rd spike beyond the E-89 recovers
active channeling has 6 or 12 pullback entries first 3: beyond E-16 second 3: beyond E-32 third 3: beyond E-89 fourth 3 beyond E-16
active channeling ends with a new Tough Cookie print in its direction (now with golden tail highlight), LL / HH projection zones and stochastic bar sequences are there for confirmation
The Catcher In The Knife is made of the upper plots of the Soap Hodler and has a knife catcher high light and an added golden tail function to make the Tough Cookie levels easier to spot. Seen here with the Modified Modified Fractals, that draws rectangles for projected support / resistance areas and channeling epicentres along with the confirmation levels. The ROC, E16, TC, E207 box is a collection of color warnings and a poker equals a falling knife. That’s all you need to know.
Trading is a subjective subject, it means something different to everyone.
This article is part of the Channeling series.
There are some new elements that I have spotted that can clarify things a bit.
On the image below the ripples are the epicentre of the channeling move.
What transpired prior was a mean reversion, but since the Green River was not plotted here, we’re not going to discuss that part.
After the ripple effect any point is a good point to buy until the channeling ends, but for optimal entries, consider the 3 3 circle sets.
You should therefore initiate new longs / add to your longs upon the first 3 spikes below the E-16, then the 3 spikes below the E-32, then the 3 spikes below the next EMA, which would normally mean the other side of Mr. Maroon (E-67), but on the example above the E-89 was plotted.
Now, unlike the epicentre of the channeling, the end isn’t so easy to spot.
The last move ended up in a falling knife – see last blog entry.
In general, a stochastic bars hybrid can help to spot the 3 different legs – and more precisely where the last one ended, and with a little practice you may end up finding the faith healers yourself.
On the image below the channeling only got to the second 3-sequence before the falling knife, after which there was no lower low, but one pink was still good for a quick sell.
My suggestion to playing a channeling market is to open positions without stop losses first. Then have a routine click on the first protective stop in gains after 8 hours, and have a smart trail stop take care of the rest.
The last image here is to show that the first set of the stochastic bars started printing. The moratorium of 1.19542 was calculated from the last Send Function’s high, and if price fails here, this is what I call a no break extension: price only coasted higher by a mere fluctuation size = the bus never left the station, just pulled ahead from one end to the other.
(The 3 green circles are the Maroon Fake-outs – see the pink ones earlier.)
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Visualize a channel…
The purple dashes are liquidity breaks = hint to fade. Note the divergence on the Aiken Hasi purple line on the bottom between the T-80 thrust and the Thrust/Failed to Close Below.Stochastic bars group 1, 2, 3.
Before we start, let’s commemorate the fact that the Holy Graph is now equipped to plot Channeling Epicentres. 3 images to start salivating.
A remark about Trader Tom here: he is a poker player that bluffs a lot. He plays every move like it was a channeling one, although he does not know what that means, because he does not acknowledge indicators (besides the few he mentions).
This was important to note because Channeling is the key to sustainable buying / selling. Once it kicks in, it is quite hard to stop it. It does feel like catching a falling knife at times. This gave me an idea. What if you, Mr. Anderson could bend over backwards and grab the sharps inside the cloud of slugs?!
All we are saying – figlia mia – that we are all catchers of the knife in the rye in the wind.* Just juggling with you!
C stands for strange? That’s strange. (Screwed with this poet that lives inside my head.)
Most of the indicator of course only exists in theory, somewhere in my cloudy meatball brain. I just could not contain my excitement.
The Primary sell was faced with a newly printed Tough Cookie level. The next one up is around 1.2050 until another one gets printed in between. The ABC printed on the Aiken Hasi was right on cue this time.
The NeoPolitan moment on the above chart was the gray cloud with the slugs. That’s where the knife had no edge against this expression:
So, what do you do if you find a knife suspended in mid air? Do what you normally would: put it back inside the Green River. Killer! (Or at least that’s what somebody told me).
By the way, this immediately explains the origination of the expression “fallen out of bed” – of course they mean the River Bed. (…of Roses – Violins are Green).
Research material:
* Boycotting Elton at this point. He’s too successful for his own good. May opt to put up some Gombay Dance Band (first foreign band that I ever attended a concert of).
Now, let’s introduce the idea that after a soap bar in the air or on the floor the same are would be re-approached within the limits of pondering, then we would take that as a sign of wanting further intimate engagement.
Good. Now we have the opportunity to call sells and buys based on the directional logic.
When you get a pat of soap on the same sex side, that is a cancel all wrong minded efforts, i.e.: cover the short ones with a towel.
////Cover Shorts in full & in half
if (dir[i]>0 && sdn[i+1] && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))==iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,12,i+2)) ){
ObjectCreate("ZomatoObotx"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))-30*Point);
ObjectSetText("ZomatoObotx"+DoubleToStr(i), "Cover Short", 14, "Impact", Navy);
}
else if (dir[i]>0 && i>0 && Low[i-1]>Low[i] && sdn[i+1]){
ObjectCreate("ZomatoObotx"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))-30*Point);
ObjectSetText("ZomatoObotx"+DoubleToStr(i), "Cover 1/2 Short", 14, "Impact", Navy);
}
Now, let’s introduce the idea of safe to go long:
///Go Long In Green
if (i>0 && dir[i]>0 && !sdn[i] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i+1] && RSI2[i]<RSI2[i-1] && RSI2[i]<52 && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i-1))<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,12,i+1))){
ObjectCreate("ZomatoMangusta"+i, OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))-30*Point);
ObjectSetText("ZomatoMangusta"+i, CharToStr(241), 32, "Wingdings", Green);
ObjectSet("ZomatoMangusta"+i,OBJPROP_BACK,1);
}
Et voila, you’ve got yourself a Soap Hodler Trading System & this is how you can avoid Bill Pershing making 2.6 billion dollars on a single trade then taking your marrying your girlfriend.
No, I don’t have any comments on Janet Yellen taking in $7 mil in fees in 2 weeks for giving speeches to major banks about how representing their best interest is not obvious corruption.
Fred Pitt as he was the one without vanity – with the only toalette of a soap bar.
What are the common kick-off traits of a channeling move?
How does channeling end?
The near past has downside examples, so that’s what I’m going to present you with.
My definition of channeling goes like this: sustainable selling / buying brought on by not letting price come back to the E-16.
In practice this means that every time there is a scare on the E-16, someone steps up and shovels in just enough coal to keep the steam-roller going, never too much, for that could end the party.
The following 3 down moves had one thing in common: at the start they all applied some pressure on the E-16 upper displacement, then printed a W which is a call for a higher high, then they attacked the lower displacement. Falling just shy of it is a good start. The channeling moves tend to have their upper line just shy of 10 pips from the E-16 HL2 and the other end somewhere from 39 to 58 pips away depending on the current volatility.
Only the last one had the conditions right.
The following example from earlier shows the decisive push towards the displacement and the two shovels on cue to keep the trajectory.
This channeling move happened with larger volatility, the 45-pips displacement kept on getting exceeded.
(The two pink lines are the raining best trade in existence being dethroned by the current W to channel idea.)
So how does a channeling move end?
With a Faith Healer orA rounding bottom with 3 sets of stochastic bars blocks
You get to fill in the blanks for this last, low volatility example.
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3 Blocks? Nope. Faith Healer? Nope.
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This is how channeling looks like on WandaVision:
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Channeling mode confirmation plots
Busted! feature added on the upside. This is after 9 blue stochastic bars prints. The upside would be limited around 16 pips in excess of the swing just printed.
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As it turns out, there is a 3rd way Channeling can end: price crashing into the forest without any stochastic bars to put the blame on when price is at more than 2.5x Fluctuation Maximum away from the mean.
