Blitz & Bob’s Bits

I’m telling you how things work for real. That’s all I ever do.

Back on the DM track

Charms in limited supply

Firstly, not all waves / moves end up being part of a wave structure.

Wave 5 ended with a thrust and since the volatility has been bending price back and forth.

Thrust the Green.

The highlighted filter picks up this last one.

  if (Close[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)-100*Point && Low[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)-120*Point && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)-960*Point && Low[i+2]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,95,i+3))  
  && Close[i+4]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+4)-100*Point && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)>2

// small decline of bands, 8EMA back 56-64 pips && daily stochastic greater than deeply oversold
 && (( (iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+14)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2))<200*Point 
 && iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2)+640*Point>Low[i+2] 
 && iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2)-560*Point>Low[i+2] 
 && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)>9 && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)<19) 
 || 
// tight bands 
 (((iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+2)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2))<540*Point && Close[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)
// or oversold RSI14 and not deeply oversold stochastic (wave 3 beat)
 || (iRSI(symbol,0,14,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2)<20 && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)>10)
//or stoch coming out of deeply oversold, above 8
|| (iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)>8 && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)>iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+3) && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+3)>iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+4) && Low[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2))
)

// 8-EMA at least 19 pips above BB
 && iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)>190*Point ))  ){

New legs came from the E-32, final pushes came from the E-8.

A thrust can have an undercut, no problem. This typically won’t be more than 12 pips. Beyond 20 pips something else is happening, so use a moratorium of this size.

Here you can see that the 20-pip moratorium was never crossed by the undercut of the Thrust.

That indefinable nothing

Embedding is a promissory note for a Lower Low or a Higher High – or else the embedding itself has to cease to be.

Daily embedding explains why it was a safe and logical bet to see a lower low after the inside day.

It had to happen

The upper oval move’s mirror image is what is happening now.

Finding the right wordsending a problem

Curiously, the 109 swing low & swing high displacements (dermia lines) almost coincide at 0.9646 and 0.9640.

After a swing high is made, a swing low would be necessary.

The first, maximum volatility move was 240 pips long. Since the move put the price below the 9-day EMA at once, I think an extra 30 pips was gained beyond the 210-pip usual upper limit. The Swing high was only made 3 days out and the retracement was 95 pips. Now you see why I used to have a rule of not fading within 150 pips of the high / low: price never re-visited that trap area.
This current move has made it to 216 pips so far. It has not yet taken out the mean, but is above the Guard rail.
If the high is in, a 95-pip retracement would put the low at 0.9655.

Bob was the name of a dragon I invented back in school.

Always was a bit more abnormal than weird. Personal preference.

They may want to kill the 92 weekly puts this Friday on FXE. Scratch that, that’s 300 pips up.

Probably gonna expire a smidge lower than it is after a new swing low and back. Above 89.5 by 1 hour before the close.

Exhaustion Gaps

Trying to make some points here.

Importance of Gap evaluation.

If you manage to identify the gap correctly, you know where you are and what’s the game plan should look like.

From the arrow on the bottom to the swing high there was 138 pips.

1. Exhaustion gap spotted

2. Wait for price to pull back beyond the 8-hour EMA of opens

3. Aim for at least 138 pips from the entry area to the furthest fractal print.

From the upper arrow to the swing low there was 160 pips.

4. Wait for two outside fractals to appear in a declining order and draw a trendline. Every time the price exceeds this line you get an entry for the bow back target.

This is now upside down to understand my points better.

5. The bow back is shaped by the volatility first compressing then starting to expand. The bow target is in the neighborhood of the closing price (average closing price) of the swing point’s hourly candle / candles.

If this makes a smidge more sense to you than an Elliott Beethoven looking for a beat of the swing point for an entry, clap your hands!

You Can Leave Your Hedge On

A Cap does not re-paint, it does not care about candles on the right. The only spin that can be added here is grabbing more liquidity by doubling down on the Cap. The momentum is up already.

So, let’s consider this move & close above the 5x stretch marker to be a fake out. That would be diabolical, like a Strictly Come Strychnine or a Volatility striptease-reprise.

Measuring leg + Divergent leg = ABC correction.

Volatility can have an arousal again and you can get your game on.

The Big Baluga

Quoting Macdulio’s Trading a Break Away Gap article from the 12th of September.

Actual stretch achieved: 9.4x

The market stayed outside the 5x stretch marker (in white) and made a push from beyond the 8-hour EMA of opens.

The counter effect is in progress as long as the new 4-hour low would be a higher one at settlement.

Friday’s close was another acceleration (2nd Blue Line)

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention. The bottom in the Euro is in.

Squirts

Every hiss begins with hey. Parent Guarded Rating.

Snauzilus,

the difference between the Thrust and the Beat is that they are both squirts, they both end up in a very volatile relationship somewhere outside the Bollinger Rainbow (BB30-2.0SD in Teal and BB216-2.5SD in Red ). A beat is not the final squirt, but all of these talk about temporary weakness after a concentrated hot mess of blood.

Eaton,

Don’t mess around with those digestives! A Thrust tends to come from beyond the Divider Line (E32HL2 hourly).

So what exactly is happening right now?

We have discussed already how a Wave 1 looks like.

The first two outside fractals (F1 & F2) in the oversold drew a trendline.

It is blue, because there was an acceleration between these points: people went net shorter.

The Wave 3 ended in a Beat that pierced the trendline.

Wave 5 arrived from beyond the E-32 as was discussed just now, and it is going to end in a Thrust that is going to fall short from the acceleration-trendline. Why? Because holdings became less short in the meantime. Relative weakness, remember?

Beyond 4.5x fluctuation maximum stretch you are pushing your luck. See a few entries earlier where I spoke of the swing out to the upside from the Mean, the numbers and the ideas of where the counter-swing may get to.

One by one. You already triggered two counter-effects, this would be the 3rd.

Cap by Cap oooh babe, gonna get to you girl.

Thanks for stopping by at the drive-through.

Liver? I don’t even like liver.

The 21st century’s yesterday.

?
Stabbed my back, oooh babe!!!

Inauguration of a Wave 1

There are 2 qualifiers to a Wave 1.

1. Substantial counter directional volatility breach

This is measured by the 30-smaple Hourly HL2 Bollinger Bands where a 36+ pips outside would qualify,

2. Relative strength hitting new wave territory

This is is measured by the 14-sample RSI’s 2-standard deviation bands as limiters.

In general these events above should occur within 2, maximum 4 hourly fractal prints.

If only one or none of the criteria happens, the Wave 1 attempt is considered a failure, price has to return to the Opening / Closing price of the last Thrust, form where a new Wave 1 attempt can be conducted.

Examples

1-2-3, 1-2-3 Drink
A late bloomer with no keel back.
Surprise, cockfags! I ain’t never coming home!
I had a Buggy for a while, a VW Bug conversion in Red with a soft top.

I wanna jump start my chandellier…

Thrust
Bow back (5 waves back) to closing price
Wave 1 to achieve 36 pips+ beyond BB30 & New Wave RSI Deviation print
Wave 2 back testing into the bow
Wave 3 E&B
Wave 4 scaring / back testing W1 fractals
Wave 5 ending in Thrust

Something To Do

Filtering – is this something to do?

I know, this is turning into a Depeche Mode blog.

In my line of business, you cannot Thrust anyone.

Yea, bit of dyslexia, Alexa. People who find my profile on LinkedIn tend to misread the Inventor label as Investor. Happened a few times, for sure. Not the same thing.

So what about us, what about Thrusts?

Thrusts (vertical highlights) are usually followed by an intermezzo, as I stated earlier. This bow-back is to be the starting point of a wave-structure away from the Thrust.

 if (Close[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)-120*Point && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)-760*Point && Low[i+2]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,95,i+3))  
&& (( (iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+14)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2))<200*Point && iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2)+640*Point>Low[i+2] && iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2)-560*Point>Low[i+2] && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+2)>9 ) 
  || ((iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+2)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2))<540*Point && iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)>190*Point )  )
  ){

When filtering for something you must have really well defined ideas in your head.

You need to understand when you have gone too far and when you have not done enough.

When a filter seems to fail, you need to take a second look if you want to do away with some logical expression or you just hit something precious.

That green line above, do we want it? I believe that we do. There was a counter move that fell shy of a 100 pips and then the Thrust was violated by 12+ (use 16 for good measure) pips. This is where you need a double sized hedge and keep it on indefinitely. I’m saying this because there seems to be a green strike out with a rally shy of 100 pips made on Friday. That would mean doubling down on the shorts at 0.9928.

This image? Made it on Discord / MidJourney.

Quadruple Snitching

There are correlations on the windscreen for a start.

Something strange about that max pain Oct->Nov->Dec sequence.

The objective of the brokers today was to have the FXE expire above 92 (not to pay anything for the 92 PUTS) and below 93 (not to pay anything to the 93 CALLS). With 2.5 more hours to go the mission is likely going to be a success.

I let the Matthew Broderick of Wall Street explain about the quadruple twitching / options-expiration game.

I gave him a like for this one. Like went to the other video below as well.

Not sure what this guy does, but this scam compilation was wort making.

Me? I’m in the generous mode again.


   j2=1;
   while (j2<500 ){
    j=j2+3; 
      if (iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_LOWER,j2)) 
         while (j<j2+16){
               if (RSI2[j2]<RSI2[j] && iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_LOWER,j)   ) break;
         j++;}
         
         
    if (iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_LOWER,j) && iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_LOWER,j2) && RSI2[j2]<RSI2[j] && Low[j2]>=Low[j]-10*Point ) break;
          j2++;}  

    

///first lower continuation divergence         
                if (Period()==60 && plot_r1_s1){  
           if (j2>2) {
             ObjectCreate("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(j), OBJ_TRIANGLE, 0, Time[j2-3],  Low[j2]+90*Point, Time[j2-3], Low[j2]-420*Point, Time[j2], Low[j2]);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(j),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrNavy);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(j),OBJPROP_BACK,0);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(j),OBJPROP_WIDTH,1);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(j),OBJPROP_STYLE,1);
        
            ObjectCreate("Ellipse3_3ffx",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[j2-3], Low[j2]-400*Point);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse3_3ffx", " S1:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[j2]-420*Point,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrWhite);
             ObjectCreate("Ellipse3_3ffy",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[j2-3], Low[j2]-400*Point);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse3_3ffy", "S1:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[j2]-420*Point,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrBlue);
            
            
            
              ObjectCreate("Ellipse33_3ffx",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[j2-3], Low[j2]-ATRA*0.43);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse33_3ffx", " S2:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[j2]-ATRA*0.43,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrWhite);
             ObjectCreate("Ellipse33_3ffy",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[j2-3], Low[j2]-ATRA*0.43);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse33_3ffy", "S2:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[j2]-ATRA*0.43,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrBlue);
           
           }
           
                 }             
     

 i2=1;
   while (i2<500){
      i=i2+3;
      if (iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_UPPER,i2))     
      while (i<i2+16 ){
            if ( RSI2[i2]>RSI2[i] && iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i2]<=High[i]-10*Point ) break;
         i++;}
      if (iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_UPPER,i)  && iFractals(Symbol(),0,MODE_UPPER,i2) && RSI2[i2]>RSI2[i] && High[i2]<=High[i]-10*Point) break;
               i2++;}  

 

///first upper continuation divergence    
      if (Period()==60 && plot_r1_s1){       
             if (i2>2) {
             ObjectCreate("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TRIANGLE, 0, Time[i2-3],  High[i2]-90*Point, Time[i2-3], High[i2]+420*Point, Time[i2], High[i2]);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrNavy);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_BACK,0);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,1);
             ObjectSet("Ellipset"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_STYLE,1);
        
            ObjectCreate("Ellipse3_1ffx",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i2-3], High[i2]+450*Point);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse3_1ffx", " R1:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(High[i2]+420*Point,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrWhite);
             ObjectCreate("Ellipse3_1ffy",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i2-3], High[i2]+450*Point);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse3_1ffy", "R1:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(High[i2]+420*Point,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrBlue);
           
           
            ObjectCreate("Ellipse33_1ffx",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i2-3], High[i2]+ATRA*0.43+40*Point);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse33_1ffx", " R2:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(High[i2]+ATRA*0.43,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrWhite);
             ObjectCreate("Ellipse33_1ffy",OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i2-3], High[i2]+ATRA*0.43+40*Point);
            ObjectSetText("Ellipse33_1ffy", "R2:"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(High[i2]+ATRA*0.43,4),4), 17, "Impact", clrBlue);
           
           }   
               
          }

Nothing

Nothing to declare, nothing to see here, move along…

Intermezzo is the unraveling of a volatility crush brought on by a thrust. Price ultimately makes a bow back towards the end point of the thrust before volatility shall start expanding again. Yellow ovals.

The meaning of E, B & T were discussed in the previous blog entry.

I’ve seen the future and it will be

I’ve seen the future and it works

Think about the future

Trading a Break Away Gap

Run away with me in the dark…

A gap is brought on by one sided positioning in the premarket. We have talked about an exhaustion gap here earlier (telltale of a final wave), now we are to discuss a run away / break away gap.

These gaps, that usually don’t fill (partially at most) are telling you about the likelihood of a Wave3 in progress.

#1 start appreciating the fact that price is failing the same color for the 3rd time.

The 105-pip swing point displacement has a color, it is SlateBlue.

//90-sample low & high
   
if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]<taxi[i] && Low[i]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,90,i+1)))
      dermia[i]=Low[i]+1050*Point;
      
   if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>taxi[i] && High[i]>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,90,i+1)))
      dermia2[i]=High[i]-1050*Point;         

The 8-hour EMA of opens has a color too, Orange.

You don’t know what you are doing without these plots? Exactly.

#2 What is it that should never happen if the gap means a reversal?

It should not take out the end point printed at the open.

This is where you must hedge. Feel free to apply 2x size of the holdings.

E. B. T. = Exhaustion, Beat, Thrust

#3 As for targeting, the first thing to appreciate is the steepness of the Zero-Mastodon trendline (Blue) that was made by wave3 of Wave3. wave5 of Wave 3 would have to fall short of it, but not by a lot.

You already know that the final beat would arrive with an RSI2 reading within 10% of the peak RSI2 earlier.

The last thing to appreciate is the Goldilocks level for targeting, as wave5 is expected to be a tad weaker than a wave3.

The yellow Goldilocks level was known as soon as the consolidation finished.
///Atravg is 3-day ATR
 BowBuffer=(iClose(symbol,15,i))-ATRAVG[i]*1.30;
   BighBuffer=iClose(symbol,15,i)-ATRAVG[i]; 
   BowBuffer2=iClose(symbol,15,i)+ATRAVG[i];
   BighBuffer2=(iClose(symbol,15,i))+ATRAVG[i]*1.30; 


ObjectCreate( "FUNNATURE"+5, OBJ_HLINE, 0,  Time[0], BighBuffer+100*Point);
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+5, OBJPROP_COLOR, clrYellow );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+5, OBJPROP_WIDTH, 6 );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+5, OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT, false );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+5, OBJPROP_STYLE, 1 );               
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+5, OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );
   ObjectCreate( "FUNNATURE"+6, OBJ_HLINE, 0,  Time[0], BowBuffer2-100*Point);
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+6, OBJPROP_COLOR, clrYellow );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+6, OBJPROP_WIDTH, 6 );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+6, OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT, false );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+6, OBJPROP_STYLE, 1 );
               ObjectSet("FUNNATURE"+6, OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );   

Xtension fill at 1.0173 – new extension figured (vol. crush won’t allow it) – currently the counter effect move is printing.

Volatility is on the rise with a 5x+ FMax print. A counter swing on the opposite side of the 9day EMA could see a 7.5-9x print (largest stretch I’ve seen was about 10.5x).

White line.

Galileo Fx

In closing, let’s talk about the latest auto trading scam on YouTube that comes on between the buffoon Greg Secker and that other dude claiming to have worked at Barclays.

You see 3 trades running, 500 lots each, 3 pairs – all long USD against another currency. No stop losses anywhere, what could possibly go wrong?

To be able to open 500 lots at once, you need a broker that does not have the max lot size capped at 50 or 200.

To be able to afford opening 500 lots, you’d need about 120k on a 1 to 500 leveraged account, or 2 million at 1:30 leverage that is the cap for European traders.

Let’s say you do have 120k and find an offshore Australian broker. Let’s say the auto trader opens 500 lots long before a close on Friday.

If it is early May, 2022, you may experience a rude awakening on Sunday evening as the market gaps down 140 pips and the broker magnifies the scissors’ openining by pushing the spread to 200x and stops you out with some extra slippage added.

160+ pips of instant loss of (minus 800k). You owe the broker 680k. What do you do now?

It is nice and cozy to play around with a demo and large numbers, but it is entirely different to put real money on the roulette wheel.

I had 60-80k on my account at times, but never held more than 12.5 lots naked or 15 lots for a hedge.

Go, read all the fake reviews and look at all the fake statements to feel completely stupid.

If you belive that auto trading would magically work for you in Forex, you obviously haven”t read my entries on the subject.

Angel Eyes in 2022

Why Auto Trading is not a Viable Thing on MT4?

Run away from who’s house?

3 vertical lines are End of Wave1, Wave3 & Wave5 hook backs

You have just seen 5 waves up. Is a pullback a buy? No. Is the first correction a buy? No.

Is the second correction a buy? Maybe. Is the New Wave territory a buy? Maybe, if price does not stay outside.

RSI2 enough to turn, closing below the upper BB and the E44 maybe.
Weekly is embedded, printing a continuation divergence. Price spiked out of the oversold briefly.

Just in case you don”t believe that a Wave C can be more powerful than a Wave 3.