How To Read The Saucers?

(As opposed to the tea leaves)

Ingredients: 1-6 sense for spotting the excess.

I invented the point and go, figure charts – yes!

…and now for the undercut (the last squirt)…

The length of the final thrust (burn off)? Approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes.


A confluence is when you have more than one reason to take the same action.

0 was the Count Sell…

Wishing on EVO6

First, yesterdays news.

Yesterday (The first unofficial forward testing day) the EA opened a short at 1.13132 at 1:58 AM server time. I closed it out manually at 6%, but if I did not, it would not have touched it at least till 1.1232, and with the opened size and the 81 pips it would had meant 45% gains for a day. Not bad from an auto trading routine. The best robot I have seen advertised on LinkedIn (on a real account) made 100% in 10 months.
Just to compare.

Little quotes here and there from the song at the end of the page.

One spark among the embers…

What is wrong with the following back test?


There is an interesting profit factor number coming up on the following image…

Is the problem that it only made 3,034% gains in 2 months?

That’s right, but why?

One voice against surrender

Why could it not open any more trades, what was wrong with the trade volume size?

One dream that’s worth defending…

See the entry of the Maximum Lot Size? That is what this broker imposed as a limitation. You can find out in a second what a broker forgets to communicate out of deception.

You could buy my book for instance in a month or so for £19.99 – the best 20 Pound note you will ever spend – and after I have your email I could send you a small indicator package that would include the Broker Auditor routine that I made.

One love that’s never-ending…

So, let’s run that test again!

First Trade: 8th of January, 2019

Last Trade: 1st of March, 2019

Is this much more? 3410%? No, but this was about knowing your working parameters, your limitations correctly. And as a side effect, when the maximum lot side gets reached, the EA would not simply stop working entirely.

Now I can speak of an EA, one EA as “My EA”. It had to go through 6 Evolutionary steps to be a stand alone, all encompassing Automated Trading Mogul with Full Hedging Capabilities, multiple Cropper Routines and Smart Trail stops in one single Program.

One thing I’m extra proud of is the time outs, when there are no positions open give you plenty of opportunities for withdrawal.

30 round trip trades on 40 trading days is very manageable.

This is my only EA that was specifically designed for the extremes, an embedded, trending market and not opportunistic trading, in a nut shell.

Wishing on a Star (the EA)

First, a shout out to all the LinkedIn peeps. If you are one of those, posting easy to forge cell phone statements, chances are, that I already unfollowed you. I suggest others do the same. It is lame, it is unprofessional and you are swimming in the same water as all the scammers – so, stop it!

Back to business.

About the algo development

Let’s get this straight: there is no holy grail, there is not a single EA in the world that can do it all, that can perform well in all the 3 different kind of markets, there is simply no “one size fits all”.

If someone starts a sentence by saying: “My Algorithm”, I can only think that you are an amateur, a green horn, so I’m begging you, please start using the phrase: “This particular algorithm of mine” instead. Better, now I might listen to what you have to say.

There is a reason that I am running 5-30 EAs at once on a single account depending on the type of the market. To be able to claim anything in algo development one should have made hundreds of them, like I did.

One last bit here: an on screen indicator in my opinion does not fall under algorithms, they may be the basis for them, but an algo should perform some kind of an action related to a trading order. I have been making indicators for a decade, but only started making auto trading routines three years ago. These routines seldom ever plot anything on the screen. I don’t call everything that has a plus or a minus somewhere an algorithm, and neither should you.

What is the world’s first EVO-5 EA made of?

It is a 4-in one routine with features used for the very first time.

The whole thing starts with a carefully selected bunch of triggers.

I combined the Wishing on a Star indicators signals with the RSI sharpies, added volume change triggers, invented counters and factored in other failure possibilities.

Evolution 1 & 2

This is my first time to use a volume change trigger in any EA, and you do not need to know all traded volume to find a change. The sheer complexity of the trigger categorization would be hard to follow for a human brain, this is truly an artificial intelligence.

Evolution 3 & 5

The trigger conditions not merely initiate and close positions, but they serve as stop loss adjusters or the basis of in house hedging.

Evolution 5

The EA is equipped with several cropping lines i.e. Golf Cropper and Star Cropper.

So, the question becomes, if this routine can and does it all, is this the holy grail? No. It is only expected to perform well in 2 out of the 3 market types. I would not run it in a no edge market.

Would I say now the sentence “My algorithm”? No. I would still run it with at least 2 other routines simultaneously: a ratio hedger (just in case) and a smart trail stop.

Too much talk? Show the test already?!

Well, here it is…

Remember, you are looking at a routine that does not apply stop losses at the open, and yet it does not get in trouble. With a Ratio Hedger running alongside the maximum relative draw down is expected to be less than 35% at any given day. The maximal draw down is spelled out for you: 26.13%

This program works just as smoothly as transmission of my once favorite Mitshubishi Lancer used to.




A/C – In One Breath

What market are you in?

Embedded oversold. Meaning, there has been at least 3 daily closes below the long term oversold neckline (20%) @ 1.1468.

What are the two market types that exist in an embedded market?

  1. Trending
  2. Counter trending

Why do you want to trade embedded markets?

The moves tend to be enlarged / long, for there is plenty of liquidity, lots of participation, you can trade in and out easily, the spread is at its lowest, you can stay in safely until the trending direction does not change.

What is required to make the market turn within embedding? Peak trending.

Peak trending is brought on by 1h 30 min – 2h having been spent opening above the local overbought or below the local oversold neckline.

An example of peak trending: 4 30-minute opens above the overbought neckline.

Visual signal for peak trending:

Calculation for the overbought / oversold levels (based on my modified fractals):

if (sdn[i+1]!=0) minus[i]=Low[i+1]-110*Point+FSize/2*10*Point;

if (sup[i+1]!=0) plus[i]=High[i+1]+100*Point-FSize/2*10*Point;

Where sdn and sup are arrays with Sychronized highs and lows

and the Fluctuation Size is 32 pips (EUR/USD)

To find a starting point for the oversold trend’s continuation, you would be looking for an ABC correction.

There are a couple at once.

At times you may be wrong, and the high of the C would be taken out unexpectedly, so that is where you would need to initiate a hedge temporarily.

The image below also shows the violation of the upper guard rail coinciding with this move:

Here’s the calculation I use for the A & C count:

int countback=4;
int countup=4;

 for(i = 188; i >= 0; i--){
      if (trianglehigh[i] && ExtMapBuffer3[i]!=85 && ExtMapBuffer3[i+1]!=85 && ExtMapBuffer3[i+2]!=85) countback = 1;  
      if (ExtMapBuffer3[i]==85) countback = 4; 
      if (tup[i]!=EMPTY_VALUE) countback = 4;
      if (trianglelow[i] && ExtMapBuffer2[i]!=15 && ExtMapBuffer2[i+1]!=15 && ExtMapBuffer2[i+2]!=15) countup = 3;  
      if (ExtMapBuffer2[i]==15) countup = 4; 
      if (tdn[i]!=EMPTY_VALUE) countup = 4;
       if (RSI2[i]<92 && RSI2[i+1]>94) {
           if (countup==1) {
                 countup=countup-1;}
      else if (countup==2) {
                 countup=countup-1;}
      else if (countup==3) {
                 countup=countup-1;}             
      else if (countup==4) {
                 countup=countup-1;}        
      else if (countup==5) {
                 countup=countup-1;}    
      }
      if (RSI2[i]>8 && RSI2[i+1]<7) {
           if (countback==1) {
                 countback=countback-1;}
      else if (countback==2) {
                countback=countback-1;}
      else if (countback==3) {
                countback=countback-1;}             
      else if (countback==4) {
                countback=countback-1;}        
      else if (countback==5) {
                countback=countback-1;}                         
   }
}

Where lays the dog buried… The triangle highs and lows.

I have been talking about the Slope of Nope and successful buys and successful sells. People tend to put me on ignore for this, oh, well…

    if (stoch2[i]<20 && Period()==30){   
        for (j=i+1; j<=i+11; j++)         
         if ( iHigh(symbol,30,iHighest(symbol,30,MODE_HIGH,j-i,i))-Low[i]<FSize*1.5*10*Point && stoch2[j]>80)
               trianglelow[i]=True;}
    
    if (stoch2[i]>80 && Period()==30){  
    for (j=i+1; j<=i+11; j++)         
         if ( High[i]-iLow(symbol,30,iLowest(symbol,30,MODE_LOW,j-i,i))<FSize*1.5*10*Point && stoch2[j]<20)
                 trianglehigh[i]=True;}
     } 

ExtMapBuffer2 and 3 are the Stochastic Bars Mixed’s High and Low arrays

As for ending, here is some visual practice to draw meaningful conclusions.

Look at the shaded zone between MR. Maroon and the Green River. That is what I call the Spark Zone, where moves come out from. In our case, it served as the igniter for at least 5 counter moves on the image below.

It does not take much the sync up these two images and see, that both A/C prints were S#1-S2 Sync pairs, furthermore they both had their ending points beyond the chartreuse upper guard rail. Ironically, it is the Bull Zone 1 where the bulls fail.

Sorry for the high density, I hope that things are starting to come together in your head.

Homework: knowing what you know now, how should the embedded oversold trading program look like?

  1. initiate a short holding after an ABC correction to the upside.
  2. Exit(s)?!

…another A/C from a little earlier…

Wishing on a Star (the indicator)

On this unusual Monday afternoon, with the highest ever recorded temperature in the UK for the month, in his grip (hype!) Macdulio was pondering to himself… Hmm… Everybody is talking about Fusion, maybe I should call my Trading Direction Plot on the bottom of the RSI2 indicator Fusion. And he saw, that this was good. And then he thought to himself: I could make an indicator that would be even better than a TradeMate! And then he quickly realized that any indicator on this planet was better than that. So he went on to do his own thing, as per usual.

It started out as an innocent pattern recognition among everything that looked like chaos. I noticed a recurring theme.

& I made a call based on these:

& since I was right, I made an indicator based on these:

& for the hell of it, I am going to make an EA out of it, yes.

RSI2 Spin – Test EA

Somebody asked if RSI2 Spin was an EA, And about why do I call this artificial intelligence. This was the first part of my answer:

I refer to the complexity of figuring a direction, that could be deemed as artificial intelligence; I enter a lot of premises that would exceed the human mind’s capability to make a binary decision about.

You could make EAs out of the logic, but they may be late by 30 minutes, for they need settled values, otherwise you might get false triggers.

The second part was taking the AI as is and turning it into an EA.

I decided that it should close trades if both the Omega and the Omega Master are the same color (in consideration for the direction), and was not the case for the last print, and open a directional trade on the third alike print.

I lifted the target logic as is from my DDI trader that operates with the real swing levels for exits – as mentioned in the previous RSI2 Spin article.

I knew, that my auto trail stop would be running alongside, so I used the new codes, 0.2 and 3 for stop losses, that do not start trailing until 20 pips in gains.

The close out part had to be done by a cropper function, so this became the first ever instance of a 2 in one EA test, where a cropper is part of the EA, not a separate routine.

As for temporary draw downs, I am not at all worried, for I would be making on the opposite direction automatically by my Ratio Hedger initiating counter trades at different levels of draw downs starting from 15% (it would first slow down the equity draw down, then eventually reverse it). In the back test it is not possible to include other EAs.

I even adjusted the cropper part of the Omega trader to be able to close all but one micro lot from 3 out of the 4 kinds of hedges: the rope trade, the half hedge and the over hedge can now be automatically closed out upon a direction change (and leaving 1 micro lot would prevent them from being re-opened), the full hedge can not.

Of course, the sizing is current equity based, as it is on all of my routines.

Here is the first test, that had one weak spot:

Here is the second, optimized one a little larger size:



If you wanted an answer for the life, the universe and everything – here it is.


No clue why, but at times the test does not run for the whole period, it gets cut off like in this case.

Mixed feelings, I know… The world is my oyster, and I don’t even like sea food!

Had to give more credit to the successful buying since the last article.

RSI2 Spin

This blog entry is about an indicator I am developing for EUR/USD to have an accurate reading on what is going on. See, I am an internal conditions guy, and this is the most complex AI I have ever developed.

It understands embedding, counter trending, it has timing features, and it deals, it knows a heap of conditions I have managed to identify. If you want to gain edges, and comprehensive evaluation, nothing would beat this program.

To scare you away and prevent you from wasting your time reading any further, here is a snapshot of the looks of it:

What is on the screen then?

Upper half:

The thickness of the RSI 2 divergence field is 16 pips or 1/2 Flutctuation size of the EUR.

In opposition of what people call Swing Highs and Swing Lows, these are not levels that I don’t expect to be touched, but rather the ones that are always expected to be touched: you need an exit in mind upon entering a trade and these provide you exactly that by averaging the last two outer (modified) fractal values.

The black lines are a summary of levels that were prompted by wave 5 projections, later about this under “timing”.

Lower half:

The first thing to talk about of course is the Omegas.

Omega Master exists in an embedded market only. Embedding can be figured using my Comfort Levels indicator’s calculations. Omega Master accordingly switches off between Embedding and counter moves / counter trending.

The trending boxes in essence represent peak trending. An embedded market does not turn without reaching peak trending first.

The Omega calculation takes up about 1/5 of the 2500 line code. It understands “successful buying / selling” (slope of nope without going into overdrive), it knows when “upside/downside progress is useless” (Wyckoff thrust?).

The hand signals meant to draw attention to the steepness of a move. The idea is not so much opposing this move, but rather finding pairs of starting and ending a move.

The open hand would normally mean upside/downside progress is useless, but the ones above are exceptions, and don’t bear this warning, for the move itself managed to exceed the Fluctuation Maximum – the interpretation thus is temporary pause, a good area to get in on the move.

The arrows pointing up / down – they are warning signs that things may e about to change. There are ones placed a little higher, they changed the trading direction on the above image, but not the holding direction, and the one placed lower did change both: peak trending was achieved.

Timing.

The purple shading and the W4? and the question mark are also warning signs, signalling the possible end of a wave 4 and placing the question marks further out; a white one at 1h 45 minutes away (filtered by RSI2 actual print) and a yellow one 2h 45 minutes away, for these are the likely points in time, by when the terminal end of Wave 5 is expected to be printed. (The “Tick” is to echo the Actual time (adjusted to your watch, not the server time) is by when you should be back from snorkeling, to be able to make the trade). Some Wave 4 warnings would line up with Wave 2s, so you should check into it yourself.

There are also 1-2-3 numbers plotted counting the directional waves with some basic understanding.

The 2, 4 counts on the omega are highlighting the rhythm to follow for entries.

The Ts (thrusts), just like the hands, show terminal length moves which can either be the starting or the ending of a move.

A successful buying can set a timer as well, and is plotted as a “Check mark” – see it on images coming up. The Slope Of Nope triangles are the plot of my 88 Luftballons Routine.

The golfers are similar to Sharpie prints (88 Luftballons) and show a quick act by either a bull or a bear party: they made a swing, that was potent enough to turn the price in under 30 minutes.

The smack / splash / cartoon speech plots are showing when a party managed to break the progress in under an hour, but it did take longer than 30 minutes.

The “+3”, “-3” marks should be interpreted as “buy” and “sell”, and the “C”-s mean Cover.

———

The magenta dash is an RSI2 divergence and so is the yellow one, but only the first kind gets plotted on the chart itself.

I have some intelligence breakdown of the market conditions on the white labels.

Thrust boxes are a plot of the 88 Lines indicator – I use these two in combinations.

Daily fuel limit is a plot by 15m ATR Targets or the ATR Limit 15 routines (free).

The Green River plot as well as Mr. Maroon comes with the LEMA30N routine (free).

Overdrive plots (they are the magenta stars here) equal to the Stochastic Bars Mixed (free) bar plots.