Candle Fabricator

This is gonna be almost like a Klondike game, but you can actually make money with it.

Game rules:

  1. On Friday you must close your open position unless the market is closing on a weekly high / weekly low.

2. Over the weekend you must fabricate the two last candles. They would be the last weekly high/ low / close and the prior week’s 3 values unless there was a shaven candle (in this case you combine it with the following week) or an inside week – in this case the last candle would remain the one over, but the close would have to be rolled over to the next one.

3. The software derives the candle color from the relative close in the range.

4. If the last fabricated candle was red, you attempt to sell, if it was green, you attempt to buy in the following manner:

you wait till the price trips one of the play percentages and prints an hourly low / high beyond it. You place a buy / sell stop at the gray line thus likely sparing yourself the draw down bit that would come with a limit order.

5. If you don’t get a fill at that level, and price continues to another trip wire, so be it.

6. Sizing is to be calculated from the current equity and bet 20%, 50% or 80% of your maximum risk at the trip wire that is being courted with.

As an exercise, the current courting is happening around the 50% level, and so your sell stop order should be at 1.2179 (gray number on the right).

Yes, I was excited to make this routine a reality after inventing it during work. It took me 2 hours to code it and make the blog entry for it. Very satisfied, especially that I have made EAs that place limit orders in a similar fashion, you can generate/plug in the level, but they would only place the pending stop order out after the level aimed for gets exceeded first. Also, this system could be applied to any other instrument.

& now there is the ghost of the current weekly candle as well

Helipad, Full Length Wave

Let’s talk about the motivation for this article.

I missed out on 3k again today thanks to my devil dog, le fear unrationale.

I am 4.7 lots short by default. Taking on longs decreases the naked exposure, so it is strongly advised – at the right places.

Seeing that the market is making multiple beats, I scaled in. Had 4 lots at a time, bought 4x 0.5 more later on.

My trading career is about one single thing: learning to hold.

I got too complacent with the $423 gains yesterday, so today I was only doing things half heartedly. I took $230 and left another 3k on the table. This is what I need a partner in crime for: I know all the answers, but I do freeze in action, forget to ask the right question out loud and go passive too often. I was in the trade. All I had to do was to hold for a full length wave – more on this later.

What is a helipad?

A helipad is the area between the swing point and the first beat of the outlier (plots of OBB).

Routine

A helipad is the area between an Eleven and a Thirteen (plots of the Modified Modified Fractals).

R

Basically, as soon as you exceed 11 or the Beat, you can start accumulating for a full length wave. That expression again!

I reached inside my indicators and made this redux plotter – now called Stochastic Longbow.

The 9-sample stochastic D with 3 delay is the best measurement of a full length wave between 20 and 80 that I know of. Circles are plotted automatically.

There are some inside tricks to be had such as putting “0.9” for stop loss and have my auto trail stop relentlessly adjust the target level based on the current location of the E-89 until the push away happens and then the stop loss has to be put with a 0.2 to automatically lock in 3.5 pips and trail 32 pips behind the highest high achieved.

As for continuation on the upside, I don’t think so. Crossing back below the E-89H within 2 hours is how a new leg kicks in. Zero Three was activated I believe. I’m expecting serious downside here: the Zeros are not part of the leg count. 6 legs down with the first 3 coming from beyond the E-16L and the second 3 from beyond E-32 for a start. 9 or 9+12 legs if things get some good traction.

“I reached inside myself and found… Nothing to ease the pressure of my ever worried mind…”

The ins and outs of trading with stochastics:

The ones with the nipples (nippon-ken) are the ins, and the doughnut ones are the outs. Macdulio out.

Trust me, if you have to trust someone.

Kiss AMC

Since there is a lot of misinformation out there, I must do my part of correcting a few things in people’s thinking.

Of course this is about the “sticking it to the hedgies” and the “to the moon” mentality of the new found gamblers of Wall Street.

Regarding the run AMC experienced upon breaking above 20.

Those buying the call options, have to think about who is at the other side of their trade. Who has enough funds to be late to the party and still clean up everything?

The big banks. Seldom hedge funds. Selling options naked can be very costly.

But when a frenzy builds up and a break becomes imminent, Goldman Sachs and the likes buy the underlying asset to hedge their risk (they see the arriving orders, and can take actions accordingly) – and here is the important part: they overdo it, making the break have an even larger effect plus make some change with it as well.

The losers are keep on buying, adding to their position aiming for unattainable numbers. But Goldman has more than enough covers, and whilst they were aiding the move at its beginning, they are able to sell the calls / shares in the future for the additional demand covered, knowing full well that the price is going to peak, reverse and collapse swallowing the purchasing cost of the call options expiring out of the money from the retail.

What is important to understand here is that they have the upper hand every step of the way. They play along by giving you the fills, they make the break out happen, and they make the break out fail (wherever the demand drops below the frenzy level).

Kiss your AMC goodbye. Hodling is suicidal.

What was different about Game Stop is that they were not able to buy the underlying shares, for the demand exceeded the underlying float by an extra 40-50%, meaning there were no shares at all, regardless of how big of a bank you were. This squeeze was a lesson and they are not likely to fall in the same trap again.

Find a game where you can have an edge against the bank.

Virgo Beats & Naked Outliers

Virgin POC? How about one better?

If you see a purple line below the price, you are in an uptrend. Re-visiting a POC does not necessarily mean a reversal. Taking out some indigo does – after the ink has dried of course.

Lots of lines stacking up = donations are being collected for a field trip.

So, let’s pick the theme for this article. We built this city with Felicity – would do.

It would be low pay-grade to pitch a Naughty By Nature hit here based on the presence of the letter O and B. What? G.Y.N.? Like I said it in the beginning, we can do one better.

Let’s zoom in on what is going on here.

Based on the filters, there was a Beat-come-lately that very much looked like an outlier that was left without a beat. Looking left you could swear you were presented with a head when all the virgo beats got tackled in a single hour. You could even go as far as to say that there was no field trip attraction left with the off-beat O choking the prospects of the untouched Beat away.

Now, if you are curious about the applied filters, there’s truly nothing fancy.

(RSI2[i]>0.8  ||  RSI2[i+2]<1) 
iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,2,i))<iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,22,i))


(RSI2[i]>91 || RSI2[i]<86)
(High[i]-iMA(symbol,60,16,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)>260*Point || RSI2[i]<94)
!(High[i+1]<High[i+2] && High[i+3]<High[i+2])
iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,22,i))

The title of the routine? You know what? OBB. I could not think of anything better, pardon me.

Naked outliers, how significant are they? Let’s find out & include them in the shape of the Aquatic empire.

For more on Outliers / Beats & leg counts see my blog entries of late – rolling the credits now.

Flawa Mea

So, I figured why not make a balance of flowers indicator: grab the last five RSI readings, average them and if you get larger than 50, that’s green, less that’s red.

The second row is the same thing, but with half a dozen for a bouquet.

Still don’t believe in indicators? What are you using your eyes for if not to identify something that may indicate something you recognize? I make the charts translate themselves. This is what I do.

6 is expected to make a beat beyond the outlier fractal (often made by 5, sometimes by 6 itself) by 10,21 or 29 pips

That’s all for today, folks!

I was considering some nice, controversial stuff now that I am being boycotted by one of the forums I used to be posted at frequently. See, it is kind of liberating to have less restrictions, so I started planning for some self fulfilling entertainment.

Life is born from unprotected sex

Life is torn by sharing needle with your ex

& this was how far I got with my elaborate scheme.

Never seen anybody else do this. It was a break in the market profile. The support is not the 39, because that’s the largest number, the support is the difference between the 18 and the 27. Too large of a step.

Volatility Retribution

To change the way the dice roll, counter directional volatility has to be proven.

Picture an olympic long jump event.

This guy had 3 little wishes, so he has 3 legs.

He starts to run (the drive) then he runs out of breath. They mark up this spot. He runs again whenever he catches his breath. Out of steam, the new outlier spot (fractal) gets marked up as well. They dig a sand box beyond this point. His penalty is having to go back a little again. He gathers all of strength, knowing that now everyone’s watching. He charges, he lifts his feet up in the air and swing’em like he just don”t care. He scores something beyond the 89 yards line (EMA). His penalty for the achieved ovation is that he has to go back to the other side of the arena, and he is being spanked all the way by the thuds and whistles of the cheering crowd.

He scampers on being unable to resist the force until the volume dies down from the deafening degree.

This scampering on is the volatility retribution.

Remarks: the retribution is not a given, but is a likelihood. The 89- yards marker is the key.

The crush in volatility would carry price away from the crowd (207 EMA).

How to play the Retribution trade?

  1. Fade the jump (doc-doc-doctor beat).
  2. Wait for 3 hourly closes back beyond the E89 for confirmation.
  3. Lock in better than break even.
  4. Trail.
  5. Wait for an RSI2 reversal divergence to print. A 99 or 1 print would be the start of the sand box.
  6. Exit scaling out while looking at the divergence unfolding. This jump may be 8-12 pips big, not 28+ like that olympic event was.

At that point the olympic long jumper may get the light on for another attempt.

The 3 red lines are the 3 attempts. The pink line is the start of the sandbox. The deep pink is the 89 EMA.

Centipede

I think you are going to really appreciate this one. You may warm up to the subject by looking at my recent articles – they all revolve around the subject of channeling.

The first thing to say is that the answers are on the hourly chart.

The second, is that legs (not waves) come in 3s.

The third is that the first two legs pick a moving average, the 2nd leg gives exact entry for the 3rd leg &

The fourth is that the ultimate goal is achieving a beat beyond the outlier fractal.

Now, let’s look at example 1.

What makes a leg a leg is that the commute to the other side of the moving average takes less than 3 hours from the fractal print.

Leg 1, 2, 3 tend to shape up around the E-16 HL2 (stands for exponential, median). The count does not start until the other side has finished with their 6, 9, 12 rolls on the dice.

In the example above 4 and 5 did not make it to the E-32, so they decided to stick with the E-16. Happens sometimes. Once 4 and 5 was printed, you knew the location of the entry. How? You take the difference between the E-16 and #5 and deduct 4 pips.

The point here is that the 3 things to concentrate on are: leg count, participation in leg 3, 6, 9, 12, getting out on the beat.

Surprise, surprise, it is not about support and resistance (at least not static ones at that), not about harmonics and Fibonaccis, and not even trendlines for the entries, nor for the exits. Leg 3 has certain characteristics and so does leg 6.

In this example Leg 5 stole 6’s thunder. Can happen.

In this example adjusting the E-16M to E-16H would make the #4 call more obvious. In the down sequence leg 4 provided the outlier.

You are welcome.

the projected distance 240 routine carries the same logic of outlier / beat or drive & thrust, it gives you an idea on how far the market could reach based on the intensity of the current move

3x red = the falling knife condition

Smile or Don’t

So, I mentioned in these columns, that my boss committed suicide.

I was working for him for 3 years at that point, probably 4-5 days per week, lots of face-time.

He told me one time, “this is the first time I’ve seen you smile”.

I just had an exam. The teach asked me: do you always smile?

I’m the same person I’ve always been. People project their subjective world onto me, like a canvas.

The world is what you make it.

Like the MVIS stock (pico projector was the future as per Alex Nason back in 2010), that I bought around 2.25 (probably bought 2500+ shares to make it around 5k in cost), then dropped to 1 and then I got out at just above 2 for a loss.

The other day it was featured on some YouTube vid, so now I know that a decade later it hit $18 as a Nasdaq stock.

Why am I talking about all this?

Because, I have an issue of executing on the reflection I bring out of a mirror.

I have a problem with acknowledging: it’s real.

I made $22 today. Instead of a potential 4k.

I have been explaining to people about my “provable” leg count versus the un-provable Elliott “Wave” counts. I was showing them where Leg 6 would start relative to the E-32 and how far I expect the beat to go.

I was telling them on how risk free it was to go long up to the same size I was currently short, and how risk free it would be to make the hedge run once I got locked in a gain. All was left to choose was how much gains to take, and this was not at particularly random either.

The helipad was printed. But then comes doubt. What is the priority of a leg over the MEAN? What if price consolidates below it? What if a LEG 3 prints a zero or a double zero? What happens when Leg 5 makes the beat beyond the outlying fractal? Would wave 6 remain mute? I know, 6 legs equals a correction, I know, even if there will be a Leg 7, it would come from beyond E-89, but still!

I have the right knowledge. I have built the right tools (dynamic trail-stop) and a data base about what to expect from the next leg.

If I understand everything, how can I end up with nothing?

All in all, this world is unreal. You have all scammers unite to blaze a new path where nothing remains alive in their tracks. People reward these useless efforts built on the most useless technology the world has ever seen (anybody who tells you otherwise is either invested in it or plain dumb), for this is the subjective world of other people’s eyes we live in.

Intelligence is not everything. Balls are. Bitter sweet symphony this is.

Learning To Count

I’m in school this month right at the age when time is going backwards already – obviously had to re-learn counting just to keep afloat. Warning, this is not for Elliott-hearted!

Channeling

Leg 1, 2, 3 come from beyond E-16

Leg 4, 5, 6 come from beyond E-32 (or the next EMA out for the triplet)

Leg 9 can reinvigorate the channeling move and reset the counting

Leg 7, 8, 9 come from beyond E-89 (or the next EMA out for the triplet)

Leg 10, 11, 12 come from beyond E-121 (or the next EMA out for the triplet)

Channeling can end on 6, 9 or 12 (3 is very rare)

Added support & resistance list to the Catcher in the Knife and resuscitated the divergence highlighting function.

Left column: resistance levels, right column supports. Fau Wee says: ama still on the scene!

White Lines – what can you do, when Break Dance is living its Renaissance?

Freeze, 1-2-3 Rock!