There were a couple more things that occupy my mind, such as acknowledging the market in the era of overwhelming CTA presence, risk off taper, framework to follow. The market is evolving, so should you.
Yea, I need to investigate myself what I did here, but there is cerainly a 78-sample lower low for the 3D (shadowed E), E stands for excessive reading (), I use a filter for having to be outside the local Bollinger Band for the green projection label above, ie:
This is now becoming an everyday feature. I don’t know who or when or why invented it.
After the Qanon print there was a Wave 5 up, then 5 waves down for a Wave 1. Once the core Wave 2 printed, a dirt box of liquidity was made beyond it. A box like this can be as wide as 50 pips. When they folded the Wave 2 onto itself they managed to push price another 40 pips out setting back the starting point of Wave 3.
This wave 2 is the wave 2 of the Wave 3 down. Similarly, they folded the wave back and managed to push the rock back up the hill beyond the core point by 10 pips. It is a vain battle but they cause immense pain and panic with this unsustainable move. Against gravity, against momentum.
A hint as to where the air benders can take price to is a hourly 216-sample HL2 BBwith 2.5 standard deviation.
2 weeks notice: I’ve noticed that the Echo has to arrive within 2 Weeks of a push, so there is a time out function, even if price does not manage to exceed the push level, it has to return to base.
The base is one of the 3 support / resistance levels. On the way down the typical return line was the R3 (red) discounting the last push down that came from the R2 and the first blood where price printed the megaphone, price only mad it back to R1. The market finally flipped after the R3 line was exceeded by 45 pips. The next leg down stopped at the 2std window envelope making a higher low (interrupted red).
On the way up the house has uniformly been the S1 level, making this incline way steeper and calling this move a Bear Market rally.
The idea behind the purple boxes is to highlight 2 levels where the echo could arrive from.
A return should be in progress, but where to? 1.0637 is S1. 1.0557 is S2. I am certainly curious of what kind of bounce the pro volume wick would give from that ever quoted 1.0733-1.0728 band, but I am certainly not anticipating a new push (9-sample higher high) resulting from it. The previous echo was a time out, and this last one did not make it to the first check point @ 1.0892 – shy by 7 pips. As of now, there is a definite undelying weakness.
The big day is here. Options sellers are going to cash in Steaks & Tesla Factories. That’s the Duffler effect of pisding trillions and trillions of dollars on time limited options into the Sacks.
If you did not understand that professional volume candle on the Euro that temporarily took the Euro out of the bear market and placed it on the top shelf neatly, now you must have an idea. Everything is rendered under the juggernaut, the greatest show on Earth, the US stock market, and FX isn’t immune to it either. Look at the volume that is finally settling in the counter party’s hands this evening.
The bottom of the shelf is at 1.0733-1.0728. Despite the momentum being down for 6 trading days, there hasn’t been a need for reinforcement just yet: even the 9-D EMA hasn’t been crossed.
A gap down over the weekend, anyone?
The bigger the sunction device, the bigger the sucking, and the more the sucklings play around with options, the more the game is going to be about expiring them worthless.
FXE is currently a 100 pips above the max pain.
The big move will happen when very few are on board to take advantage of it.
So there were only a handful of these extra large gaps in the last coupe of years.
One made price gap out of the megaphone.
Another one gapped price from bearsperms market to taurus with an elegant 200 pips never looking back.
Now, think like a market maker. How can you flip the CTAs at once if not with a large gap? Utilize against them what they are doing as default: pushing price at an extreme ever further in the easy direction.
I’m saying all this because I believe that the CTA entanglement would have to be resolved this way.
A push is a move & close outside the 14-sample std2 Window Envelope and an 9-sample higher high / lower low., it is a 50%+ extra beyond the previous week’s range & limit. For the Hutch part price would have to first come back inside the envelope.
“The small ones are fifty”
The numbers above between the Pushes and the Echos are in blue. The size of the beat accordingly falls between 27 and 125 pips with numbers tending to be larger than 110.
Now, the other thing is that the Echo seems to come quickly, whatever you do, you can’t stop falling. Enough is enough, 2 weeks seems to be a lot.
So the big question is, have we seen the Echo 2 weeks back failing to get beyond Dempsey or this train wreck folds out in slow motion due to price only having made it back inside the 14-sample window envelope last Friday.