Do not trade. Trading should be the last thing on your mind.
Run a broker. Sell the customer base. Make software.
A successful broker, like Péterffy Tamás, could ultimately achieve a net worth of 100 billion USD.
A successful (& corrupt) trader could ultimately achieve a net worth of 8 billion USD, but for that, he would have to be next door to Soros György (Schwartz at birth) at a historical moment in time, and later the inside info would find you.
See, the wealth machine is like this: the more wealthy you are, the more corrupt you become.
The fairy tale “me against the word” making bank, F the broker stories are all made up.
The most successful “traders” either make money with inside info or engage in a pump & dump (from Ackman to Trump & all the shady Crypto stuff); alas, they are scammers.
Sosnoff uses a euphemism for losers, suckers; he calls them “customers”.
A broker knows full well that even hedging out their risk of the retail customers’ bet is a surplus. You can be provided with the best tools, all the information in the world, and yet ultimately you would end up hanging yourself with your habits and mistakes. The bookie-broker gets to erase the board and keep what you had.
Ira knows this very well. All the broker has to do is to encourage trading, feed the appetite.
You are either gonna overcommit yourself, martingale to death, or pull a fat finger. The more active you are, the faster this becomes reality.
The broker is scamming you in a more laid-back style, but for all of your worth.
Think about it, as a forex / CFD, you can only win what your broker has and is willing to part with.
So when Mr. Baldsteen (delicate combo of Dan Blizerian & Cinderella) says that he was up 10 million at the beginning of the Covid break, even if this were true, that probably would have meant all the revenue for the last few years for TD 365, everyone go home now, we’re closing down.
The conflict of interest should be clear in your mind. Your gain is the broker’s loss.
Remember when Leon Besson said to Natalie Matilda that you must learn close combat at last? That’s what I am working on this weekend.
L=leg, uc=UnderCut, ac=AboveCut, bb=BreakoutBuy
Music? Getting near 200k views on the 2 channels. That’s close to 100 / song on average. 4 comments in total, all negative. One out of revenge, 2 citing AI slop, one telling me in Uzbek to kill myself.
The two late bloomers that started motoring like crazy recently:
I’ve been making punk disco mostly, although I’m not sure that is an actual genre.
There was a break outside the house after a lengthy consolidation.
The move is not gonna be over until a new house is formed (pink shaded area), and it can only fail at the edge of it or on the inside. The cyan highlights are tangible pro volumes. No sign on this hourly of a cover, the day ended on the low tick. A carryover to Monday is possible based on this; however, I think that the into the weekend last-minute shorters may have arrived late to the party: the market is freshly deep-oversold. A minimum pullback before the move down is out would be 36 pips. Barring a lower open, this value currently stands at 1.1553. Any up move should be capped by the lower black arrow, where the long bag holders would be made whole, just shy of 1.16.
The 3 little ovals are markers of 3 covers on the 30-minute.
Back to the rant.
If you had asked me over the last 13 years of my Forex venture what I was doing, I would mostly have answered that I was “calibrating”.
This implies a great deal of investment, along with the faith you must have that something tangible can be found. The fuel was made of losses and the need to admit that you were wrong again.
I have known about RSI2-2 since 2009. Doc Severson used it as a signal for taking on / off vertical option spreads (one side of an Iron Condor) on daily charts over indices.
I have used the 30-minute time frame from whenever I started trading, and it did not take much to conclude that the best match for automation was this time frame. There’s very little to be gained by going below, and for the hourly, where it would take 2 more hours to confirm a fractal print, it is mostly too slow.
I eliminated the use of closing prices for all oscillators and substituted medians.
As for the most recent developments, I have 2 signal suggestions to consider.
1. Tres Cool & Tres Fool
Consider the 30-sample 30-min Bollinger to be your implied volatility line.
3 blood diamonds is your prompt. Falling short of the implied volatility means a failure or “Tres Fool”. Those 3 were stupid enough to buy into the very end of a move.
Tres Cool has fulfilled the prophecy. The pullback (beyond E-16, S-30) is a continuation buy.
The black line is the E16. Circled the entries.
I would suggest the combination of being inside the house and a Tres Fool plot to fade heavily. If a volatility compression is present, you may get an explosive move like that on Friday. I may do a 30-minute plot of the house in the future.
Now, the identity of a fresh yellow print on the directional logic is “Tossing it up”. The ball is up for grabs, and the next 2 30-min candles would tell of who took the opportunity.
I marked up the Free Balls with a blue vertical line and circled the next two candles.
The market would have to test the BB30 again, which is at 1.1480 right now, but this can happen 2 different ways: either the market goes down further, or the market goes sideways to up, and the band starts curling back up.
Barry Taylor is a man with similar intuition and objectives.
He is also trying to derive meaning from the available data and figure out signs of a turn and/or an end to a structure.
In my case, the “exhaustion buy”-s equivalent is not derived from the traded futures contracts, but from the 30-minute RSI2 printing in the last 2% (Blood Diamond / Crocodile Tear).
if (RSI2[i]>93.6){
ObjectCreate("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i], 86);
ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrDimGray);
if (RSI2[i]>98) {ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrPurple);
if (RH>3 && volup[i+1]>29) dir[i]=-1;
if (volup[ArrayMaximum(volup,10,i+2)]>volup[i+1]) dir[i]=0;
}
}
if (RSI2[i]<6.4){
ObjectCreate("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i], 26);
ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrDimGray);
if (RSI2[i]<2) {ObjectSetText("Darchellen"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(117), 21, "Wingdings", clrPurple);
if (RL>3 && voldn[i+1]>30) dir[i]=1;
}
}
The flush is a 29+ print on the short-term volatility (Market Type plot). The divergence can happen on the next print or a couple of hours later in the form of an 8-pip+ drop.
///8-drop shock
if (voldn[i]<=voldn[i+1]-8 && voldn[i+1]>20) dir[i]++;
///8-drop shock
if (volup[i]<=volup[i+1]-8 && volup[i+1]>20) dir[i]--;
That’s the directional logic – the little colored squares on the RSI2.
Of course, there are other ways the market can flip, but Barry does not keep track of. One possibility is a flip around the 200-hour median. I marked it up with Blue.
///windflip down
if (Close[i+2]>fifty[i+2] && Close[i+1]<fifty[i+1] && Close[i]<fifty[i]) dir[i]=-1;
///windflip up
if (Close[i+2]<fifty[i+2] && Close[i+1]>fifty[i+1] && Close[i]>fifty[i]) dir[i]=1;
And depending on the proximity to the Hepa Filter, there may be instant buys and/or sells for re-test & fail 30-minute fractals within 2.5 hours)
One example each.
The 17 is a reminder to hold for at least a 17+ print on the Market Type (blue arrow).
This, for instance, is the advantage that settling with a single instrument and a single timeframe can bring about.
Yes, I’ve got things to say about the cycle ending system of his, but I let him off easy this week.
Honestly, for an amateur, his work is impressive, but often overtly complicated, and he’s missing some extra stuff.
Each of these songs should have a place in the most original AI-aided works.
The most likes went to this song of mine:
My R-Kelly inspired song went like this (with a Zoolander reference):
Blitz, blama
Coincidence of competence
And confidence
She's so unsuspecting
We are moving in together
Under the bridge
Every time I ain't with her
I am volunteering up my heart
At the centre for plants
That can't read at all
I just wanna be paid in nature
I just like to pose in nature
I am a little bit naughty by nature
I'm at the point of nearing
The climactic change
That would bring on some
Serious rain
[Chorus]
Call me Mr
Rain
Call me Mr. Rho
(That's short for Rhode Island)
I believe I can produce
Some spray tan...
And if you happen to be
A stray teen...
You're welcome to call me
[Chorus]
Call me Mr. Rain
Remember the Eight Wonders song, I’m Not Scared? This is what I have turned it into.
This one went completely under the radar. A completely authentic Mike Oldfield song. Try to make one!
We had 3 liquidity breaks (V tops) towards the 9-day EMA. Barry Taylor is always saying something about big things happening to those having triplets – or something similar.
The daily stochastic is embedded oversold.
See the magenta RSI2 prints? A lot of them, yes, but there is a problem with calling the bottom, namely, the white numbers (stochastic readings). They are too high. They should be between 8.5 and 4 optimally for a bottom (blue instead of white).
A mean reversion is soo overdue, yet it is not happening. If you want a trending move to kick in, you need to be active around the guard rail to prevent returning to the 9-day EMA. The magenta shading below is to call attention to a squeeze going on. This makes gapping likely.
This is a channeling move down with a wall of fading at about 52 pips from the 200-hour low.
Now, onto the signals.
For automation, there’s nothing more useful than 30-minute RSI2 (over medians).
The rectangles are proposed turning points.
I shaded the RSI2 extremes below 6.4 and above 93.6. I add these prints up when I see a “lift button pressed”. The filters are not symmetrical, but the principle is the same. I show you the upside one:
///lift button down
if ( R6H[i+2]+R6H[i+3]+R6H[i+4]+R6H[i+5]+R6H[i+6]+R6H[i+7]+R6H[i+8]+R6H[i+9]+R6H[i+10]
The lift button down in this case is a V-spike on RSI2 below 7.
YouTube has stopped promoting me again. 3 new songs here today. A new Duran, a new Madonna, and a French.
I use scraps, things that I no longer want to use in English, but I still find some value in them as a starting point for the French tracks. The new album has 6 tracks so far, and may take a while before I release it, as I want at least 16 songs – so far, an amazing bunch, a worthy follow-up to the second album (Seconde Chance was its title).
With these stalls, you must be counting them depending on the prevailing volatility, and the 8.6+ hourly wicks are the qualified prints (see the cyan highlights).
4-5 hook backs.
RSI2 count starting from the first miss of the 93.6 level, a cross-back is a dip below 6.4 followed by a move back above 15.
One more hint to the end of a structure is that one pullback is due in excess of 36+ pips having transpired. That’s the red oval.
Inclined to call an end-of-leg here.
It will continue lower, but there should be 4 RSI2 hook backs first; 2 teardrops, 3 stalls – a meaningful correction.
Opting for Instrumental music today. An electronic dance music, a techno, and a Harold Faltermeyer-style track.
Count the number of 94 hook backs after the arrow. Look at the Market Type. If the upside volatility is still high, the market is in Squirting mode. Target squirt line #2 at 53 pips out.
Figure #2: similar, but squirting was not achieved, also the #4 hook back was not made on Friday (<93).
Also, after 3 tapers, I think this rising wedge is over, and I would think a gap down would be in order.
In the last image, the example shows a more reluctant start (the green arrow’s buying got undercut once), and there was a gap down after the 2nd hook back, which prolonged the rally for 3 more hook backs and a bit of overcarry.
While Madonna is busy tarnishing her own legacy, I am making awesome music with her voice.
On the plus side, she truly has the perfect pop voice.
If you believe that AI is coming up with lines like, “Life is almost fair – By The Way, do you want to see my cookie-cutter?”, I have a data center in space to sell you.
This track broke the record for my 1st-track debuts (this one is not Madonna).
One step on the Eur/USD is 27 pips with the aid of the wind, and 17 pips against it. The wind, as I have been saying, is coming from the Titis line, which is the 200-hour median. Since it is a modern hand dryer, it has a HEPA filter, of course. We’ll come back to this.
The first thing we’re gonna do is write the program for ST#3.
Stall 3: end of a leg or entire trend. The Stalls you filter for on the Hourly chart only.
What next:
STEP #1: Must rule out a double pump. The way you do this is by measuring the move back from the ST#3 print and paying attention to time. A move that is greater than 28 pips has triggered a reversal. A move that has not reached 28 pips in 10 hours is a full correction (the price managed to get outside the 30BB on the 30-minute), and a new 3x ST count is on. When hour six is still closing outside the 16-EMA (Black) that’s a telltale that the Bollinger is too wide, the volatility has to come in first, and this is how you end up with a Beat beyond the ST#3 print.
The continuation:
The no volatility correction (double pump) is likely going to clip/dip beyond the E-24 on the hourly. MUST overhedge for 3 more stalls (TGT fresh taper’s high + 27 – squirt).
The turn:
If an SOB prints (28+ pips pullback, usually within 6 hours), then you MUST fade the beat of the ST#3 print with overhedge or a fresh counter-directional position 6-16 pips out (yellow rectangle (0-6 pips)).
The main takeaway is that after ST#3, in the next 6 hours, it will be decided if the reversal is on or not.
Since we had a full reversal taking place, you should be betting on a fresh count to the downside. Outside the Hourly E-16 may be a good place to short (currently at 1.1736), but knowing what you know now, 17+36= 51 is an extra heavy short if it gets granted.
With an ST#1 or ST2, there are 2 main types of correction.
1. a liquidity break (V) against the HePa for up to 80 pips (64 is a sweet spot).
2. or double taper + small overrun for a lower volatility pullback
During the 3xST sequence, you would typically get one 36-pip break.
Also, for a proper count before a reversal, you would kind of like to see the 3rd Stall print with a close back number above 10 or if not, at least the second one above 10. These are the numbers I write after the ST-s.
Thanks to the market type indicator I made, now you have a tool to figure out the reversal level with the wind up to 3 hours ahead of the actual print.
I believe this analogue synth song isn’t any worse than Era’s Ameno or most of Enigma’s works, and at the same time, it puts up a little competition to Jan Blomqvist. But I am biased and unknown.
The voice in this one is Sting with a stuffy nose. The other day, I got a Phil Collins, too.
Meaning it is a sticking out bottom with 34+ pips volatility measured from the 6-sample high to the current close.
The V bottom is also a liquidity break if it occurs against the wind (it is above the median of the 200-hour range, see arrows for air blowing direction from the dashed line).
ST can stand for Stallworth, Stepney Green, Stupendous, or Stink, Stank, Stunk.
A V bottom is a ticket for the next 3 stations. In the image above, you can see a pullback between “2” and “3” at 53+ pips; as a rule of thumb, the last pullback can be either shallow (capping out at 36 pips) or deep (53+ pips). 3 images up are the 50-sample displacements of 36 pips in corn silk and 43 pips in yellow.
An ST is a stick out high with the previous hour showing at least a 4-pip range and a follow-through candle.
We had a no-volatility bottom that did not make a scrape level, but we have progressed 3 stations. After the 3rd station, a move of greater than 43 pips is possible against the wind direction.
A gap down could result in the 3rd ST print resuming the down trend. Don’t forget the need for the follow-through hour.
There has been a double taper with a beat already.
My base case would be a V bottom next. This would start yet another 3-station count – and if the money flow bottoms, a new scrape level.
F this guy and his Imbalances. By posing as authority and promoting a placebo indicator that’s good for every instrument & every time frame, he cementifies collective stupidity. People just accept his pseudo answers and stop looking for actual answers. Don’t you want a tablet that cures everything from diarrhea to cancer?!
You can buy from him confidence for your stupidity with a money-back guarantee.
After the 3rd Stall, the market wasn’t going to continue up until a V bottom was made against the wind.
A V bottom did get made, but not against the wind, which resulted in a 53-pip lift not getting anywhere near his stupid rectangle.
Monitor Blizzard was meant to be a reference to the Monitor Program that is running. This schmuck has no clue.
A bit of Beyonce, Prince, and a Lady Gaga remake are for desserts today.
People truly fancy this Prince parody of mine.
[Verse 1]
In the land where beasts roam free (Roam free, roam free)
Komodos reign supreme (Reign supreme, reign supreme)
Rotting meat's their delicacy (Delicacy, delicacy)
Acid spit- like a xenomorph (Xenomorph, xenomorph)
Creating fear and confusion (Confusion)
Tourists flock in amused delusion (Delusion, delusion)
[Chorus]
Monitor Blizzard, icy breath from the predators
Feel the chill, it's a thrill, let the frenzy begin
Get your Monitor Blizzard, taste the fear, taste the fun
Join in the frozen fright, beneath the tropical sun
[Verse 2]
Setting up my vendor tent (Vendor tent, vendor tent)
Geiger's sculptures for the decor (Decor, decor)
Ice cream van where you can vent (Can vent, can vent)
Komodo tongues, a treat to adore (Adore, adore)
The beasts inspire with their daring stare (Daring stare, daring stare)
Selling fear wrapped in frozen air (Frozen air, frozen air)
[Chorus]
Monitor Blizzard, icy breath from the predators
Feel the chill, it's a thrill, let the frenzy begin
Get your Monitor Blizzard, taste the fear, taste the fun
Join in the frozen fright, beneath the tropical sun
[Bridge]
Acid dreams and reptile seams (Seams, seams)
We're the scream in your Komodo dream (Dream, dream)
Stick your tongue out, taste the scare (Scare, scare)
Frozen terrors, everywhere
[Chorus]
Monitor Blizzard, icy breath from the predators
Feel the chill, it's a thrill, let the frenzy begin
Get your Monitor Blizzard, taste the fear, taste the fun
Join in the frozen fright, beneath the tropical sun
Here me out, indicator deniers. If you can see typical prices with your eyes, you can measure between any candle’s low/high and another candle’s close in pips just by a glance, can calculate stochastic and RSI2 values in your head; you have absolutely no hope of ever figuring out what is happening.
13 years and 20 minutes. It has come to this. A single innocent day, and I happen to figure out the 3 most important things for trading Eur/USD.
The structure
I hated this from the start. At the beginning of this week, I managed to find the only measurable thing that truly matters. The structure is not whatever you say it is; money flow extremes are responsible for printing the Scarpe boxes. In effect, every Scrape Level is actually 2 values. The one further out cannot be violated (Most important, #1). A violation means that the trend will continue in that direction.
if (iStochastic(symbol,0,120,3,3,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+12)<85 || iStochastic(symbol,0,120,3,3,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+12)>96.8) {}
It was a great idea to “digitalize” the pip measurements (using only integers); they make for beautiful divergence visuals. I only plot the distances if they come with a close on the relevant side of the E-16.
The two green boxes are coming off an RSI2 reading below 6.4and have achieved 20 or more pips for an open (measuring leg, Most important #2) az a second option, I included a Bollinger Squeeze below 30 pips. The direction of the wind is to be factored in, of course.
There are two different exits. One is after 2 divergences (the taper) or, if a second divergence comes with an extra strong reading, a squirting scale gets called in for pretty precise exit levels. I plot the “still too strong” second divergence with pink instead of white, and plot the 3 displacements, 27, 26, and 25 pips more in a sequence.
How do you know when to use which? Simple enough. On the market type indicator, after the measuring leg, if you do not see a taper (white vertical marker), then your V top would land on either Level 2 or Level 3 (Most important #3).
/////green to green taper
if (volup[i]<volup[i+1] && volup[i+2]<=volup[i+1] && volup[i+3]<volup[i+1]
The first principle of trading is yield to the wind.
When the market stalls, the likelihood of which direction it will start rolling again depends on how close it is to the 200-hour low versus the 200-hour high (8.3 days).
This is the cornerstone of sequential trading, and, surprise, trading is sequential.
Your 3 main lines are the 400-sample high & low (30-minute chart) and their average.
The market is drawing up scrape boxes (money flow extremes) around the 50% line until it finally breaks one of these boxes.
Since that broken scrape level, there were two more of those boxes made (violated & broke the first).
If I had to guess, this second one would remain intact for a while, but of course, I cannot know for sure.
The way I typically monitor for the double pump entry is the price returning inside the glowing green E-32 on the hourly.
What I can do to figure out a stall against the wind is monitor momentum, thanks to my Market Type indicator.
Without getting lost in the measuring leg and divergent leg explanations, look at my lovely lady humps.
The two black arrows down show the first and the second momentum tapers against the wind, bringing the momentum close to zero. Your accumulation zone was 6 pips wide below the second arrow-candle’s low.
There was also the 8! print in big blue, which was meant to draw further attention to the lack of momentum, ideal-length selling terminal tail to the downside.
Whilst the tapers in a trending move get broken in the direction of the wind, with the current move down, we have not yet seen a single taper (there was no measuring leg yet). I would only make a bet with the wind after the suggested double taper.
As a bonus, I show you another possible outcome, a V bottom. After the second green taper (and an overrun tip (1-2 pips extra), we have that), the bears have to show up with a 30+ print (we don’t have that yet), there would be quite a moment when the bull spasm reaches an extreme, and then a V bottom print would mean a 35+ print on the Market Type. That would be the second possible way to reinstate the trend.
The least likely outcome would be that the bears never manage a measuring leg, and this thing ends up breaking to the upside after like 48 hours.
An example of a bull buying taper-up would be on the RSI2, a low print below 15 followed by another reaching below 30, but above 20.
ForexFore - Internals, indicators, algorithmic trading 