An investigation into what makes or breaks a turn that just left a powder box.

An istant rejection would result in a channeling move initially.

The goodies are burriend in the bon-yard.

This however is not the very thing I’m after today. It is the H2-h2 swing with that gray box at the end. If the market was to continue chasing a new box, the h2 end would remain untouched.

The next image will make the point for me.

The H2-h2 span may actually be the shortest, hence the Wave 3 numbering would mess things up badly.

The reason this ended up not being a reversal is that the h3 swing low was made higher than where the h2 was at. Confirmation? How about price hooking back up to the upper guard rail (new box)?

Also there is that piece of information, the 460 pips. You are not likely to retrace all of that. The weekly S3 / R3 displacements are at 415 pips.

3 more images, the first one had a reaction off the h2, but then made the break.

The next one did a back test soon after the break.

The last one is the closest to what is happening right now.

335 pips VS 300. There was a back and forth around the h2.

You already recognize the gray box. I drew in a red one as well, since the h2 would need to receive some pressure before the decision would be made. If price bottoms in the 1.0770-1.0740 zone and then tags the Upper Guard rail, that would be a confirmed reversal.

If it pushes through the 1.0732 h2 low convincingly (25+ pips), the market would have started a new quest for finding a holy powder box.

I needed a breath of fresh air in the clean water.