I was had by this slow motion capitulation. I have some crystal clear lessons to share.

The right thinking should had been:

You can have 5 days separated from the E9 (red), a touch down isn’t expected until the 6th day. It is not about the Bollinger Bands, it is about frequent returns to the E-9. The return on the 6th to 8th day is the norm.

The fact, that the number of days can go up to 13, does not change the rule of thumb. This market below was making new 1590-sample lows.

A 5.11x stretch (more than 4x) from the mean is Bear Market volatility. The “300” move was a measuring leg. The divergence would be set by the divergent leg that falls shy of the original stretch measured, but not by a lot, say 20%-25%. This divergence shows enough shift in the core holdings for a reversal.

Image above: 5.11x stretch

Image below: 3.78x stretch.

When price moves slowly, the human is more prone to fade.

After the “CAP” was broken, price was in a Capitulation, no matter the speed.

The final divergences got broken (awfully close to the top, in blue), but the MFI beat (there was only one) held neatly. There were no 15 diffetent calls only this one. I’m sure there were a few dozen FVGs on the way without even going below 30 minutes (some of them got overrun, some of them reacted – did any of them help to figure out where price was to reverse?).

It tooketh the Money Flow Beat Reversal Siegfriedity and left withouth touching any interruptors err I mean breakers. If I confess to you right here and now that I have never written liquidity on any chart, you think you could still love me?

Respect the spinner. When price goes outside and then comes back, the middle value serves as an accelerator.

This was one of the most straighforward corrections ever, it merely had the potential to become the hardest trap you imposed on yourself due to the high volatility and the very slow commute at times.

As you can see, this is not so much a guessing game as much as it is a pacing game.

Go long, sell near money flow extreme beat. 2 lines of code. People don’t follow instructions – 1 line of truth.

Slow & steady Windischgrätz.

The downside spike out was much more pronounced than the upside one.