The Third Wave

(Second divergent hump that is).

Trading is a never-ending learning curve. I have felt a million times in my life that I had enough edge to make money indefinitely, then the market throws something at you have never seen before. You must evolve.

There are these textbook nonsense ideas about what is a trend. You cannot call anything a trend until you start measuring for volatility compression. That is what my Vax tool is for, but some oscillators like an RSI2 HL2 can be also used for further confirmation. Yup, continuous buying/selling hits close to home.

As Benjamin has pointed out, there’s always a higher timeframe that would be against the narrative you are trying to vindicate. This higher high higher low definition is pure nonsense. By the time you identify a matching pair, the flag could be over with.

Forget the fractal nature, as a trader you would never need to go beyond the 1H metric – or below 30M for that matter.

A EurUsd trending market is without counter-directional moves sustaining for more than an hour (2 candles) beyond 31 pips and having done this for at least 10 hours. The confirmation is when the RSI2 is unable to penetrate the last 10% of the full range.

Here as soon as you could call a trend the trend gets called off.

Understand how black and white this is: once the Expansionary Measuring Leg has printed, there are two options: they get in within the pullback not exceeding 13 pips for a wave 3 up or they let it slide back and close by more than 15. If the latter happens, you have to scale back in your short hedge with the back and fill and slap on some extra to make it worthwhile.

Buying the kickback or selling EM1 failure. The yellow diagonal shows the EM1 failure’s kickback – scale in there, pip by pip (10-13 pips again – how interesting!).

As you can see, if an RSI2 90 (or 10) print happens at the beginning of a trending move, it cancels it whilst appearing after prolonged trending, and it triggers the last, capitulation move.

The last leg is normally 35-53 pips long.

On the upside the 3 legs had a rather similar look – in the opposite color.

When I say, I am a music producer, do not think I am a rapist lacer that is kicking females to shreds.

As for the Wave 2 up, 1.1076 is option #1 and 1.1129 is option #2

2nd Money Flow Reversal zone was hit.