I have walked into the same thing twice. One example should have been enough.

Do you remember this thing?

This capitulation was the same as today’s since it was an extra-large thrust preceded by multiple accelerations. Although the last swing’s length was 164 pips versus the current 151, there was one measurement that made them almost identical in length. The distance achieved from the consolidation mean was W3FFF++ in both cases.

The gray line at the bottom of the orange W3 is W3F, the next horizontal line is another F, the thus the last one is W3FFF the pluses stand for 5 more pips each.

What is different is the bounce, which was 100 pips in the first case with a rally that continued after a 50-pip retracement versus the current measly 40 pips then volatility crush.

I have a problem with calling a bottom with an MFI this oversold. The bottom isn’t safe in my opinion, as it is within a fluctuation maximum (45 pips).

As soon the 8 EMO catches up, I’ll take back the missing shorts for a bottom re-visit / beat.

The next thrust does not have to make a beat, although it would be likely. We need to see a 2-5 hour selling that prints a fractal and does not have an MFI reading below 24.