This market is in between configurations (outside from the 200-hour low and from the 200-hour high by more than 80 pips both), currently girating between the upper and the lower guard rails (within 1 fluctuation maximum from the 9-day EMA band).

A swing high is in the making.

This requires the week to close down by 91 pips after a new high was made during the prior week.

Wherever the new week opens, typically you would get a move back up before proceeding lower.

The move can be anywhere from 25 to 54 pips, but 51 seems to be a frequent answer. How do you short that? You go neutral if you are long at 25 pips from the low, and start adding shorts as it moves higher. Every 4, 5, 10 pips. You decide on a maximum size and divide it by 5. Or securing the bulk first.

I could picture a small gap down, mostly because of the spread expansion, but still missing or barely touching the back of the house (Gainsboro). Next move would be another failure at the front of the house (higher Gainsboro), but this time it could scrape/pierce the 80-pip brown line above. Just like on the downside (see cyan candle down) , that would make for an excellent point to fail at.

What do you know, that’s 50 pips up from last week’s pivot.

If there would be another “M”, miss at the back of the house, at the next visit on the way down, that would make for a good point to add to a short.

The move back up came from a deeply oversold condition, after a couple of false starts to the downside (the stochastic wasn’t ready to give much).

The holding up / peg was most likely an opex-optimized robbery.

Lastly, for all the Euro (&GBP) news, the bar is raised (making it easier to miss) and the Dollar news has discounted targets on Monday, nurturing a Dollar rally environment.

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