First, a mental exercise to put things in their place in your head.

The first question that you would have to answer is whether trading is a technical thing.

Look at these 3 rallies marked up with thick green verticals.

The commonalities? A kick-off up day in a new/previous pro volume block with a 70+ pips range from a new 3-day low made on the current or the previous day, the daily stochastic (18-sample below 4.5 or between 9.5 and 21.5).

iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,5,i-1))<=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,6,i-1)) 
   && iLow(symbol,0,i)==iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i-1)) 
   && (st18[i]<4.5 || (st18[i]>9.5 && st18[i]<21.5) || (st18[i+1]>9.5 && st18[i+1]<18.5))  
   && Low[i]-Low[i+1]<430*Point 
   && (Low[i]-Low[i+2]<430*Point ||  Low[i]-Low[i+2]>1000*Point)
   && (High[i]>High[i+1]-80*Point || (Open[i]<iBands(symbol,0,20,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_LOWER,i)+50*Point && Close[i]>iBands(symbol,0,20,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_LOWER,i) )  )
   && Open[i]<Close[i] 
   && High[i]<iMA(symbol,0,44,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)
   && High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,20,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_MAIN,i)-290*Point 
   && (MathAbs(iBands(symbol,0,20,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_MAIN,i)-iMA(symbol,0,44,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i))>380*Point  ||  High[i]>High[i+1] )
   && Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,20,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_LOWER,i+1)-700*Point  
   && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,20,2,0,PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_LOWER,i+2)-700*Point

Being oversold can be constructive or destructive for a counter move, depending on the selling depth. An extreme low, say below 4.5, has a maximum of 4% chance of making a lower low on the following day.

The second thing you need to get right has to do with statistical relevance.

After the signal, when was the peak made?

Answers: Day5, Day5, Day 6

What distance was achieved from the prompt low?

Answers: 175, 170, and 500 pips.

Which moving average could you have used as a skew to determine the potential of the next rally?

Answer: E44. I change the color based on 3 consecutive closes on one side. A freshly flipped color (3rd day has 2-3 more days of selling pressure left before total reversal. A senior red 10+ is ripe for a relief rally, but may find resistance at the statistical 170 pips, particularly in combination with hitting a virgin pro volume block. The ideal entry is the prolonged E-44 green section, followed by a recent flip to red (& making little headway).

The rest is my latest project, identifying the origin of a move. It is pseudo-science, like everything else around trading, so take it with a pinch of a grain.

Entries and exits are one and the same thing: the exchange of holdings.

It’s not “liquidity” you should be writing on your charts, but “fountain” as in La Fountaine of the move.

Of course, you need to clarify in your head what qualifies first.

A Cadet tail is a Bow-Bow Back (W. Smith) with a revisit of the extreme with a miss of 4-8 pips.

///2-candle 20 close back up (Cadet tail)
if (i>0 && (Close[i+2]-Low[i+2])<130*Point
&& Low[i+2]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,48,i+3))
&& !(Low[i+2]<Low[i+3] && Low[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)-50*Point && Close[i+1]>Low[i+2]+165*Point) 
&& !(Low[i+3]<Low[i+4] && Low[i+3]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+3)-50*Point && Close[i+2]>Low[i+3]+165*Point) 
&& Low[i+1]>Low[i+2] && Low[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+1)-20*Point 
&& Close[i]>Low[i+2]+200*Point ){ 
ObjectCreate("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TREND,0, Time[i+2], Low[i+2], Time[i], High[i]);
      ObjectSet("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrCadetBlue); 
      ObjectSet("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,13);
      ObjectSet("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
      if (stoch[i+1]<20){
   ObjectCreate("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i]-90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),"Bow Back Continuation", 26, "Impact", clrSlateBlue);  
         }
         else {
          ObjectCreate("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i]-90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),"Deep Pull Back First", 26, "Impact", clrSlateBlue);  }
         memento[i]=1;
}
   




///2-candle 12 close back down (cadet)
if ((High[i+1]-Close[i+1])<130*Point
&& stoch[i+1]>80
&& Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i) &&
High[i+1]>High[i+2] && High[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)+130*Point 
&& Close[i]<High[i+1]-110*Point){ 
ObjectCreate("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TREND,0, Time[i+1], High[i+1], Time[i], Low[i]);
      ObjectSet("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrCadetBlue); 
      ObjectSet("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,13);
      ObjectSet("Doxx"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
        ObjectCreate("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i]-90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),"Bow Back Continuation", 26, "Impact", clrSlateBlue); 
      if (stoch[i+1]>80) memento[i]=-1;
      else {ObjectCreate("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i]-90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGR"+IntegerToString(i),"Deep Pulback First", 26, "Impact", clrSlateBlue); 
         memento[i]=-1;
         
      
      }
}    

A cadet tail is a definite, outside source of a move.

A blue tail by itself does not change the holding direction; it is only proof of the presence of counter-directional volatility.

If this were to coincide with a volatility U-turn (the last 30-minute candle made a 14+ pip advancement before the close back down with 20+ pips or a money flow extreme/swipe, you can annotate Spring/Fountain of Ruth.

The 4A is the condition that would occur before getting to the 30BB, and that is also an originator of the next wave/wave structure.

I plot a close line next to the A prints; these are the inside (secondary) sources.

Not sure if you have noticed, but the tails take up 2-3 candles, while the 4, the A, and the 4A are individual reversal candles (30 min still).

The one thing I am uncertain of at this point is whether an A print has the same importance as a 4A. The difference is the volatility involved; a 4A would be at least 13 pips. You see, I have to work with absolute values for the filters, but sometimes the available volatility can skew things.

//4-hour high vol surge & reversal
if (High[i+1]==iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,8,i+1)) && Close[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)
&& High[i]<High[i+1] && High[i+1]-Low[i+1]>80*Point 
&& Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+1)
&& (Close[i+1]<Open[i+1] || (Close[i+1]<High[i+1]-(High[i+1]-Low[i+1])/3*2)  )){
 ObjectCreate("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TREND,0, Time[i+1], High[i+1], Time[i+1], Low[i+1]);
      if (High[i+1]-Low[i+1]>130*Point) {ObjectSet("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrOrangeRed); 
         if (High[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)) {ObjectCreate("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i+1]+90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),"A", 36, "Impact", clrRed);
         }
         if (iHigh(symbol,0,i+1)>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,8,i+2))) {ObjectCreate("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i+1]+190*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),"4 Tripper", 36, "Impact", clrRed);
         if (i>0 && Close[i-1]<Close[i]) {
            ObjectCreate("DOGB"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+9],High[i+1]+90*Point);
            ObjectSetText("DOGB"+IntegerToString(i),"Strong", 36, "Impact", clrCrimson);
            }
           if (i>0 && Close[i-1]>Close[i]) {
            ObjectCreate("DOGB"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+9],High[i+1]+90*Point);
            ObjectSetText("DOGB"+IntegerToString(i),"Weak", 36, "Impact", clrCrimson);
            }  
         }
          if (iHigh(symbol,0,i+1)>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,8,i+2)) 
          && High[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)) {ObjectCreate("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i+1]+90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),"4A", 36, "Impact", clrRed);
            FourAU[i]=High[i+1];
            
         }
      }
      else {ObjectSet("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGold); 
       if (stoch[i+1]>80 && High[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)
       
       && (iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+1))>460*Point
       ){
               ObjectSet("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrOrange); 
               ObjectCreate("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],High[i+1]+90*Point);
                ObjectSetText("DOGZ"+IntegerToString(i),"A(2)", 36, "Impact", clrRed);
                FourAU[i]=High[i+1];
            memento[i]=-1;
         }
      }
      ObjectSet("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,13);
      ObjectSet("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
       ObjectSet("Fox"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
}      

Anyway, for now, I am including the pure A print in the adjustment of the close line.

The trend momentarily is still up, and pressure is being applied to the last inside fountain. At the same time, every try has been a miss. A volatile reversal candle falling short of the 30BB is missing for a close line to be brought lower. A tail is missing for a new external fountain, a Cadet tail, or a Blue / Gray with a change in power dynamics. Conclusion? A fake out on the upside.