only a quick image

The daily stochastic is starting to embed.

The configuration above the 80 line is bullish.

What is missing? At least one more driven thrust to the upside.

The structure of a driven thrust is (1) acceleration, HH (Higher High 4-20 pips extra), (2) thrust.

The above picture has a thin purple line, because the price hasn’t made it outside 2 dev from the S240 line. The grand finale with a thick purple is missing.

The question is this: is it gonna continue up?

Based on the driven thrust idea, a higher high and a thrust in sequence should exist.

I have noticed something. The 1-hour spikes get a re-test within 4 pips before the over is over.

The red circle was back-tested by the following candle (yellow circle).

The green was back-tested and was even undercut slightly around news.

Spike filters

//downside   
if (i>1 && (Low[i+1]==iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,14,i)) || Low[i]==iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,14,i-1))) &&
      Low[i+1]<Low[i+2]-90*Point 
      && Low[i]>Low[i+1]-10*Point && Low[i-1]>Low[i+1]
      && High[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+2)
      ) 
//upside
 if (
      i>=0 && High[i+1]>=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,14,i))-20*Point &&
      High[i+1]>High[i+2]+130*Point && High[i]<High[i+1]+20*Point && Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1) 
      )

It could be this simple.

If this fizzles here, printing the second T (thrust distance) and doing three passes over this right shoulder as a lower high… Watch out below.

…

This is totally a buy setup, but no one seems to care, they are refusing to buy.

The BB width is at its lowest, from here on the volatility should start expanding, and the direction… does not look like it would be upwards.

The best clue is on the 200-sample Vax.

Can you see how the red line has been below the purple horizontal line (meaning price above S3), but the green is starting to penetrate the zone itself (time out) promoting the possibility of a switch-off and the start of the compression of the upside volatility.

It would take a 20-pip move to find itself below the daily E-9 band (E-207 hourly, the two spring green lines above) and from then on… you could have a 9-12 days disconnect and keeping away.

If anything you seem to be finding acceptance near the oversold field.

I am not certain that the professional volume print (cyan) wasn’t a big sell.

A spike low, but no rally commencing.

---

#55 is dub step, house, trap, Eurodisco and R&B.

The white rectangles are likely reversal attempts. Once the far end gets taken by 10+ pips, the zone is considered a bust.

A reversal is a process, where the 16 EMA is the first challenge (fork for a relapse), then the 30 sample BB on the other side, where the whole thing could fail again, and the reversal was only a success if it starts to ride the 30 sample BB.

The filters for the long side:

I’m still working on the terminology, but I went with “discharge” first for the 16+ pips step (1/2 fluctuation size) that I am looking for.

if (High[i]>High[i+1]+160*Point && Close[i+1]>Open[i+1] && Low[i+2] && Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,16,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1)
   && High[i+2]-Low[i+2]>100*Point
   && High[i]<High[i+1]+500*Point 
   && High[i]<ExtUpperBuffer3[i]-20*Point

As for what happens next, I believe that the revesal zone up is going to be called a bust: there has not been a proper lower BB test yet, meaning the upper reversal is still running its course. 1.0440 should be in the cards, as that is currently where the oversold level starts, and a full no break extension / thrust would put the price at 1.0416.

The German elections could certainly cause a bit of a gap this weekend. Either way, I went in with 4 lots short.

GLD stands for Goldilocks. The market gained the right to continue higher after a pullback & a correction or a correction.

The Goldilocks level can mean a Wave 1 or a Wave 3.

During the last leg up a GLD was followed by a pullback to the E16 (only 26 pips down), a marginally higher high, then a 68-pips correction with the MM rolling out of shorts.

The second GLD example was a correction of 64 pips.

Currently the price has been outside the BB for 4 hours straight, so upon re-entry the MM may want to square their shorts, like so:

All the way to the 10 EMA.

I hope this gives you some idea of what to do.

Scale in, but try to get a good location. Lay the bulk between 1.0480 and 1.0470.

This was a Shape up to a No Break Extension (T). There was a volume shelf attraction, and a triple volume flip that made this possible.

Blue horizontal is still a resistance.

Buy the 9th hour for a higher high.

It should cap out between 80 and 90. You want to see a spike high, not a Momentum one.

The head level started at 1.0486

Refer to my Head Chokes entry to figure out how to work with a pending head.

I have a 2-pip tolerance for keeping the spike high in place.

   
      if (
      i>=0 && High[i+1]>=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,14,i))-20*Point &&
      High[i+1]>High[i+2]+130*Point && High[i]<High[i+1]+20*Point && Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1) 
      ) {
        ObjectCreate("Countessz"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], High[i+1]+90*Point);
             ObjectSetText("Countessz"+i, "SPK", 15, "Arial Black", clrCrimson);
             if (Open[i]<Close[i]) ObjectSetText("Countessz"+i, "SPK", 15, "Arial Black", clrYellow);
             
              }

Imagine the following:

if there is a 10+ pip increment hour on the hour and the next candle makes additional gain beyond, we take it as proof for existing momentum, if it falls short we dub it a spike.

if (i>0 && High[i]==iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,14,i)) &&
      High[i+1]>High[i+2]+130*Point && High[i]<High[i+1]+130*Point && High[i]>High[i+1] && Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1) 
      ) {counter=1;
        ObjectCreate("Countessz"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+70*Point);
             ObjectSetText("Countessz"+i, "MOM", 15, "Arial Black", clrGreen); }
     
     
      if (
      i>0 && High[i+1]==iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,14,i)) &&
      High[i+1]>High[i+2]+130*Point && High[i]<High[i+1]+10*Point && High[i]<High[i+1] && Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1) 
      ) {
        ObjectCreate("Countessz"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], High[i+1]+90*Point);
             ObjectSetText("Countessz"+i, "SPK", 15, "Arial Black", clrCrimson);
             if (Open[i]<Close[i]) ObjectSetText("Countessz"+i, "SPK", 15, "Arial Black", clrYellow);
             
              }
     
        
        if (counter>0 && counter<10){
               ObjectCreate("Countess"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-30*Point);
               if (counter==9) {ObjectSetText("Countess"+i, IntegerToString(counter,1,0), 15, "Arial Black", clrGreen);
                  if (Low[i]>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,9,i))) ObjectSetText("Countess"+i, IntegerToString(counter,1,0), 15, "Arial Black", clrPaleGreen);}
               
                  else ObjectSetText("Countess"+i, IntegerToString(counter,1,0), 11, "Arial Black", clrBlack); 
               if (counter==9 && (Low[i]<ExtLowerBuffer[i] || Low[i+3]<ExtLowerBuffer[i+3]) && (Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+3) || Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+3))) ObjectSetText("Countess"+i, IntegerToString(counter,1,0), 15, "Arial Black", clrRed);   
                  
              if (counter==9 && Close[i]>High[i+9]) {ObjectDelete("Countess"+i);  ObjectCreate("Countess"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+70*Point); ObjectSetText("Countess"+i, IntegerToString(counter,1,0), 15, "Arial Black", clrCrimson);    }
               } 
               
      if (counter>0) counter++;

---

Album #54, various parodies

“President Evil”

The story of the swamp
With the white house
And the orange-color ogre-hombre
Who drained the house, not the swamp
Ran the University of Bottom Deals
For Bottom Feeders
Any low life could qualify
With a long enough tongue
Rated: perpetraded
And all excuses receive a pardon
Fire-exit smiles for miles
While the frost lady frost bites
President evil, 
Snap some necks
Tear out some hearts
Everything is going to hell
In a handbasket
Snap some necks (tear out some hearts)
Immunity against sanity (hand basket)
All going to hell
Lip stick (on the pig) take a ride (on the wild side)
Show bizarre, Cirque du Hooligan
Insecure orders, major disorder

Steal a family crest
Take a ride with Space Force 1
Next up
Tariffs & guitar riffs
Die without shoes
You have always sucked in socks
Don't worry, just be a grateful dead
The pearly white hate 
Wide-awaits
Your first cry was a
Bing-bing-bing jackpot sound
The last sound you would hear
Is going to be made by a total wipe-out

---

S2=1.0438

Oversold starts at 1.04336

False start: 120 sample stoch too oversold, money flow too high for a breakdown

Multiple false starts would be a bearish sign, meaning they will not reconsider their desire to take it lower.

Interestingly the bears seem to be gaining momentum.

continuation sell in 7 more hours

Back to the pendulum.

The ruler on the right measures the distance achieved within the pendulum (from the consolidation mean).

A no-break extension is a terminal move. It is a lower low or a higher high made with the extra rope gained by the price consolidating, but overall, it is not progress. It is a bus pulling forward to the end of a terminal without ever leaving it (hence, it is not a breakout).

The THRST is about 46 pips from the mean.

Now, the HEAD depth is 58 pips, which is still shy for having absolutely gained the right to a continuation. For that you need a minimal W1 depth which is 68 pips. Yet, the price in this case has gotten outside the fluctuation maximum. So what the HEAD is is a big question mark. There should be a debate taking place.

The two circled things were two such debates. The way this gets decided is if the price gets to consolidate before hitting the 16 EMA (HL2) and manages to stay above it, then the head was acknowledged, it is OK to continue, a HEAD CHOKE has taken place.

Now, if you go back to the first image, there were two red 3X BB out markers (fractal outside the 30, 120 and 240 BBs).

The last time this happened, after the second the price returned to the E44, then proceeded to make a third, final one.

The 3rd print was a higher high (11 more pips), but if you are running my Stochastic Bars Hybrid, you would be able to spot the death of the momentum.

Introducing the new technical term, “things are hopping” right now.

---

I engaged in structural plays with album #53.

_0_W3FFF_Trader_2000Lot.ex4, 2 years backtest, longs & shorts

For some reason, the driven thrust sequences tend to go in pairs on the upside.

Green line: Acceleration, followed by the Higher High, purple line: Thrust.

Finally, the RSI2 and the Counterforce are getting usable values. After the re-balance, the daily RSI2 should light a higher box too.

We are in the 18-sell. Not a bad location to go short.

The swing low looks to be stong enough now.

The third time this has happened.

The head depth is 130% (58 pips) of a fluctuation maximum (45 pips) from the consolidation mean.

The next move based on history should be to counter this top with an hourly candle print outside the 30BB, like so:

A head distance is shy of the area that comes with a new dice roll flag, not by much. Nevertheless, merely 10 pips more would have registered as a W1, and continuation would have been an option.

The one curveball in my opinion would be if they would buy the oversold level (1.0348).