Erase Me…

…to the Finish Line.

An expanding ABC cotrection with the LL being the typicsl 4 pips lower from the end of the acceleration (orange) right before the Thrust down commencing.

The B-C move is the price going from oversold to overbought

The LL is aldo a trip low, do you pretty much have 16 pips lower guaranteed. Of course there is way more at stake here. The market is staring into an abyss. There is no support line until 1.04. Of course, one could be made on the way.

Same ol’ trendline alll week long.

Professional average block size circled as they are leaning into the selling.

True understanding starts here.

Hourly candles.

A stand-out, 8H higher High/Lower Low with a wick on the wrong side of the E-16 is a Starter candle ( StarTrek is okay too).

The second working cadle has to make a new 8-sample Low/High by at least 2 pips. Otherwise the run isn’t a Racer; it is an Eraser.

///starter candle up
 if (High[i+1]-Open[i+1]>45*Point && High[i+1]-Close[i+1]>45*Point && High[i+2]<High[i+1] && High[i]<High[i+1] &&
 High[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,16,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1)
 && iHigh(symbol,0,i+1)>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,7,i+2))
 ){
    ObjectCreate("Dalton"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], High[i+1]+20*Point); 
        ObjectSetText("Dalton"+DoubleToStr(i), "ST", 22, "Impact", DimGray);
   starterup[i+1]=true;
 }
 
 ///runner down
 if (starterup[i+2]
 && iLow(symbol,0,i)<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,7,i+1))-20*Point
 ){
    ObjectCreate("Dalton"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+2], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,14,i+1))+50*Point); 
        ObjectSetText("Dalton"+DoubleToStr(i), "RUNNER", 22, "Impact", Crimson );
 }
 
 ///eraser down
 if (starterup[i+2]
 && iLow(symbol,0,i)>=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,7,i+1))-20*Point
 ){
    ObjectCreate("Dalton"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+2], iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,14,i+1))+50*Point); 
        ObjectSetText("Dalton"+DoubleToStr(i), "ERASER", 22, "Impact", Green);
 }

A racer sequence will make a move outside the 30BB, as all exits can be found there. 20 pips out or Shy & Shy with a money flow divergence.

We may be printing a new STarter candle now with that long-cover wick.

The eraser move will tackle the swing low/high, sweep, and reverse.

Believe it or not, the decision to sustain the move is made in the first 3 hours.


Race Me To The Finish Line

Set the sails high, feeling alive
Riding winds of fate, where the ocean dives
Boathandling skill, working in unison
Feel the thrill rise, as the race is begun
[Pre-Chorus]
Preparation's key, laying strategy
Eyes on the horizon, where the sea meets the sky
[Chorus]
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
Chase the victory, under clouds divine
Race me to the finish line!
[Verse 1]
Riding on the waves, through the open sea
Chasing down the current, feel the breeze set me free
Oh, I'm steering fast, steering fast, steering fast, steering fast
Sailing on, sailing on, sailing on, racing on
[Chorus]
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
[Verse 2]
Spinnakers flying, catching all the wind
Every tack and jibe, perfect maneuvers begin
Oh, I’m setting pace, setting pace, setting pace, setting pace
Cutting through, cutting through, cutting through, racing true
[Chorus]
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!
[Bridge]
Sail trim tight, feel the speed
Racing on, with skills I need
Wind in my sails, driving me
To the thrill of first victory
[Chorus]
Race me to the finish line!
Race me to the finish line!

Sting is Racing Sailboats.

[Verse 1]
Sail on the horizon bluff and shifting tide
Feeling the wind's pull as our strategies collide
Preparation is the puzzle, fitting the pieces right
From tacks to buoy turns, all through the restless night
But isn't this the rush, the thrill we crave inside?
Each wave a whisper, every moment is our guide

[Chorus]
Racing sailboats, a chess in mind and sea
Where courage meets the elements, where we long to be
It's the speed and grace, in every twist and turn
Racing sailboats, endless lessons to learn

[Verse 2]
Boathandling finesse, in the dance of sail and sky
Adjusting sails with heartbeats, as the seconds fly by
It's about more than victory, more than just the prize
It's the pace and wheel, the look in your partner's eyes
Rig tuning sings a song, as the canvas billows high
In this silent symphony, we learn to soar and glide

[Chorus]
Racing sailboats, a chess in mind and sea
Where courage meets the elements, where we long to be
It's the speed and grace, in every twist and turn
Racing sailboats, endless lessons to learn

[Bridge]
Feel the spray upon the face, freedom in the air
In these salt-kissed moments, you find just who you are
It's the dance of challenge, the beauty of the dare
In the game of sailing, our compass is the star

[Chorus]
Racing sailboats, a chess in mind and sea
Where courage meets the elements, where we long to be
It's the speed and grace, in every twist and turn
Racing sailboats, endless lessons to learn

The Sandwich…

…is done.

The suggested mean reversion to the S-356 (Hourly) S-712 (30-minute) has happened.

The down move looks to have an ABC, finished structure.

The A leg produced two blue support levels, the B leg two hourly fractals, and the C leg two blue support levels.

So all systems go to the upside?

Not so fast.

A high volume weekly churn has enough momentum to carry the price further for about 2 weeks. Then, a 2-week pullback before another run for up to 6 more weeks.

A swing high is made with a weekly close lower by 91+ pips. I circled this event. There is always a lift come next week, usually around 51 pips, but occasionally, it can be as low as 24 pips. I circled the qualifier weekly closes.

24 pips higher means 1.0836, 51 pips is 1.0863, and it is not impossible that the first move would be down.

All Euro news is with raised bars. Disappointment made easy.


Achilles Dent: Troll (Album #58)


Like Duran Duran?

Achilles Dent: Smooth Blend

The Back Test

…of the yellow trendline.

Check how cleanly that hourly support low was made (dark blue) and was back tested along with pro volume coming in. Interestingly enough they may have already gone back in short.

Things could accelerate once the daily pro volume candle gets exceeded to the downside by 15 pips.

There is a long way down for the daily stochastic.

After a GLD print, a HEAD print would be logical, but I don’t know exactly until the market consolidates overnight taking the weight lower. Should that be here, you are looking at 1.0788-1.0770

There should be a catastrophic cover at the end of this decline, and the stochastic bars have not even started printing yet, let alone started diverging.

For now, the continuation entry should be a failure at the E-16: count 8 more candles after the down fractal, if no closes / not sustaining above the EMA, you should go in for the next leg.

The Open

That yellow trendline has been very popular lately.

One leg down has ended, a Thrust is always a Wave 5.

The current bounce made it to the Goosing zone.

That red volume block may still be attractive enough for a spike-up.

The bottom of that green field is the S-356. An important average. One more False Start print would be too many.

The price has grazed the 9-day EMA, poke below the Upper Guard Rail.

Weekly pivot, 3 spike lows. A bounce, a Wave 2 up.

The 3 catastrophic exits are a way more powerful setup.

The Quick Way

…to end a correction is a letter h.

To make a support / resistance level, you need enough volatility (12 pips), a color switch and an immediate 55% retake of the hourly candle’s body.

What a letter h is is two support levels made in a quick sequence (bow back) not letting the price consolidate.

In this case the low of the support making canfle was taken out in 3 hours.

The correction was brought on by professionals taking profits in a large cluster, but the trend has resumed since and it is in need of a proper top.

I would like to see a catastrophic exit next.

This would require an hourly fractal with a stochastic bar print followed by another fractal that would be a higher high without the bar print.

Catastrophe Averted

The Market has three speeds: ebb and flow, Parabolic, and Catastrophic. All three speeds have different exits and somewhat different entries.

The catastrophic market kicks in with V outside the 8 EMO.
It ends in a cluster of profit taking (multiple hourly prints back to back).
You must go with the direction after every second counter fractal and with a print of a new V during a wave 3 of Wave 3.
A catastrophic market can get outside the pendulum without consolidation by 30 pips.

The next image shows the shift up from 2 to 3.

The image below shows the exit for the catastrophic market: the cluster of hourly professional block-size prints where they offloaded their longs.

This is Wave 4 that should make it to the E-9 daily and the lower Guard Rail (extra 50-60 pips from the E-9 band) before resuming with a Wave 5.


(voice of Jon Anderson)

Lyrics

Never going to get supplied The supply chain has gone offline Never going to get the price For sale does not mean You’d get a deal It is not the inflation that’s gone down It is the rate of change With certainty there are only two things You can say: Life & buying power are going away [Chorus] Shorting bread Hoarding fat By the time I start losing weight You would already be dead Quoted what Matthew Broderick Of wall street had said Certainly, you can hope for a better pay Wishing upon a pie If only roast pigeons could fly A lumberjack starts pulling on a thread All out of OJ, in need of Cofee & Beans For the Lean Hog Gotta beef up the production of Soy Beans That’s his crude idea for a portfolio of Comodities It is not the inflation that’s gone down It is the rate of change

Spec…

…ulation.

The first red line/resistance level was hit (swing high’s 25%) at 1.0941.

My main problem is that the high does not seem to be finished.

On the bottom, you had a Gray divergence.

Now, you have a fan, but the last one is Yellow, and I find a problem. You must go long when a yellow divergence like this gets taken out.

My most interesting picture is coming up next.

The 200-sample weekly volatility.

Can you see how the high voltage wires have almost touched? By the way, the last time they kissed was that black doji we had just pierced into the body of.

The V bottom made a support level (bottom of the yellow V), which was pushed lower by today’s turn around low, and then re-approached, but the damage is questionable. We have not been able to get inside that major long cover wick circled, despite of going outside the BB and thus making an S2.

A pro volume daily candle, but the Money flow becomes too oversold on a short term basis.

We are in the echo move, but it does not have to finish this week, and could certainly get closer to 1.10.

Telltale

A catastrophic market has a unique feature.

There are V bottoms printing at or before the 8 EMO. In the two ovals, the down leg (3 or 2 black candles) gets exceeded on a closing basis by the up leg (3 or 2 white candles) preceding an explosive move up. This kind of a burst talks about a Wave 3.

A Wave 5 can muster the V bottom as well, but the follow up would not be quite as enthusiastic.

With that said, I am looking for a 3rd and final pullback to the end of trend, a catastrophic exit with no stochastic bar associated. That eggyolk.

Funny & Games

So, as projected, a new S1 was made by the lower BB, but no close below since.

The arrow shows where they broke the Rat Poison pattern back up.

The big question is what are the pros doing currently. I do not think that they are selling.

Based on squaring wicks, the market maker first covered their longs, then their shorts twice. They must be neutral to net long.

There are those two red volume blocks above that were left at the end of abruptly terminated high volume churns (green volume bars) to the upside (more orders to be had).

All in all, it looks to be a distribution, but since they don’t seem to care for making an S2, I would think that they want to lift price out of this range on the upside first.

Cat Exit

Having printed a catastrophic exit, the market is currently on the quest for making a new S1 level.

You would end up with another purple line, somewhere nearby the 30 sample BB, still on the inside, but within 10 pips of it.

The purple line normally would be placed on the body of the candle, the above picture got adjusted because of the Weak Cat Exit (did not poke above the BB on the first divergence), the body of that white is a bit bogus because of the credit spread expansion, so I went with a line that connects all 3 fractal prints.

What happens after the new S1 prints? If the price manages to close beyond the body, the pullback into the range would be a recoil for a future shot fired.

On the image above you can see that the R1 gets closed above, and then there is a pullback before the bigger run. As soon as R1 gets exceeded again, you see an acceleration to the other BB.

An R2 in red color gets printed with a candle achieving 10 pips+ outside the BB. In this case it pretty much coincided with an earlier R1 print. The rat poison was taken, and all resistances got dealt with for good.

Now let’s see an example of coming back down. This failure on the upside was about a 3x test of a level at 1.0522, and so the price is going back into a prior range.

The price made an S1 in the second hour, it broke it, it never made a new S2 (did not pull away from the BB by 10 pips), made two backtests of the S1 and then broke back inside the prior range targeting the other end of it (cat exit).

Now, let’s look at another one that may be closer to what is about to happen here.

A print & break of S1 followed by an S2 stall out. A reach back for liquidity: can you spot it just above the first fractal up on the way down?

Also, after the 3rd hourly fractal print on the downside you had to go long.

Your blue print.