The bigger picture is dipping into the imbalance left by the pro buying. That’s below 1.0708.
With that said, the 25% line is at 1.0729 and a small fake-out could be all you would see from the Wave3.
A Wave 4 would likely pull back to the upper guard rail; picture a mirror image of the following.
Now, on the way down the base case is still a 25-50 pips beat. Which in theory could mean a near miss of the 1.0708 level this time around. There may be a shallow dip below or a halfway mark, but then you would see a 125-175 pips correction back up.
The second magenta strip is missing.
The upper guard rail is around 1.0890 currently. An ABC pullback beyond that would keep the wave structure going, and the Wave5 would finish what the Wave3 could not muster.
The guard rails are 1 fluctuation maximum away from the E-9 band. On the 4H this is the 52-EMA high to low plus minus 38.4 pips.
So I wasn’t allowing for a shape plot when the crossback is happening whilst the price is still below the band. I have to include these from now on, since this one took out yesterday’s high, but with a different color. Magenta would stand for a lower low / 2nd attempt is still coming.
On this image, there were 2 more lows, the last one 25 pips out.
The following was also in a pair, but the second low was 51 pips lower.
So yeah, a shot over the bow, but think lower still.
This one would require a lot of patience. I am going against things like the fractal nature of the market.
A Wave 5 isn’t a big riddle.
A colored shape can call the right shoulder, you get the breaks, the previous swing high and the 80 pips (the two more or less coincided at the top), and you are on your way.
2.6x stretch from the E-9 is achieved on the last leg? Ok.
The white band is at 2.8x Stretch.
int FSize=32;
double FMax = FSize*6/5;
E9P[i]=iMA(symbol,0,9,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)+FMax*2.8*10*Point;
E9M[i]=iMA(symbol,0,9,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-FMax*2.8*10*Point;
The wave isn’t over until the price violates the 14-sample Weekly window envelope? If it is so, that would make for a major advantage: 4 weeks ago you already could have known that the W3 would get below 1.0764. Perfect aiming device for options.
Let’s use the last end of W3 as a template. Vertical flip.
I am most interested about the play with the 8 EMO (Magenta) and the 30-sample BB. The two spike outs on the top, the one backtest leg into the row of dojis.
The first two fractals are made, the second close above the 8 EMO is pending.
EMO = EMA of Opens
iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i)
On the upside, the backtest leg was a BBECHO plot. Hoping to get the same.
The cover function currently is pretty clear, a D print (1.5 hr volatility on the decline).
Now, why was the “?” a sell?
The volatility check zone of 24-32 pips in a senior trend requires the market to show strength. All buy-side volatility expansions (10-sample) are suspect My chosen proxy would be lows above the 8 EMO. Less than 3 consec. is a no-go.
In every example I have there are at least 130 pips to be had from the swing low.
Only one example for the price pulling back to the breakout, so drawdown if any, would be limited.
The thick white line is the level to clear.
If you get a drop first, that’s a head start for a discount initial position. Add the rest on the break.
History:
New release:
The one example of a 40-pip pullback from the breakout line happened on the upside. I would go with 4 pips out not to be picked up for this kind of choking. The line was not hit (on a bid chart) but this does not mean that the broker does not slip you into the sucker trade.
Here are the 3 Shapes that were printed at the lower 240 BB from the last 1600 samples.
What do you notice about the location of the Municipal trench (Orange, daily E-9)?
80 pips from the low put the price over it every time.
Currently, the E-9 is still too far (not within 80 pips for sure). The breakout did happen, but overall an inside day was made not getting to the previous day’s high. If the trendline was to get a backtest, that would mean the price going back to the lower Bollinger to mark time.
Lower low?
I have to say that 1.0797 is attainable now. At the same time, I do not have examples where a black print marked the end of a move.
RSI2[i+1]<5 && RSI2[i]>5 && RSI2[i+6]<5
The RSI sequence seems incomplete. The bow back count started with that yellow 1 upon hitting 2.5x stretch.
This is how the situation was handled on the upside when the 3rd magenta block took the price too far away from the E-9 (green V):
50 pips down then 40 back up. A mini bow back.
There was time burnt. The measuring point was brought closer by a pullback not reaching the swing high.
So both the E-9 got closer and the reference point (to measure from) as well.
If somehow a lower low would end up being made, that would prolong the affair even further.
These are the two possibilities in my mind at the moment. A gap down would be wasting time, which is in need here.
In 16-18 hours the highest point printed would be your entry. You want to do this to avoid a drawdown, to put up size.
Your target would be 125 pips to 145 pips (based on stats) from the low, 1.0935+
The sliding white line with the arrows is to help you understand that resistance can be dynamic, measured from a 10-sample hourly low in pips. The fact that there are two cross downs – I start the count after the first one.
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