This is the main reason it is wise to keep track of the counter ditectional moves.

A wave 5 of Wave 5 slam dunk is to be expected 30-31 pips from the last low made.

The first arrow shows the last time this size of a counter move was allowed for.

I list the level as E.

The last leg dow should be 35-53 pips long from the E entry.

The levels are settled.

1.0936 -> 1.0891

There’s the magenta-red RSI2 divergence is suggesting a bounce & the daily stochastic (4.5) is too low to be the last low, the same time it needs to breathe a bit.

The 1.0950 break hasn’t been backtested.

The gray divergence can be good for an 85-135 pip bounce.

The extra high energy reserves would be able to accomodate. The volatility cannot be compressed much beyond where it’s at. 3.6 – diverging from the 2.9 anchor point.

An impulse move does not end on strength.

The Measuring set a stretch value of 3.45x.

The Divergent leg would come in at 10-15% less, say a 3.1-3.2x. I set the gray band at 3.15 at which point Nick Rhodes should register a non-magenta divergence.

The multiple days of sideways has made the daily stochastic embedded, and the RSI2 reading was reset as well.

Do not mind the 2x sell and the CVR values currently, as today’s Day 3 of thr bow back and the daily close is going to settle these values.

So here I’m thinking, there is a problem with the upside picture.

For one, this is a trading market, and the price has not back tested the 240 BB since it re-entered. The Echo print’s moratorioum line can be tagged, but a close above is a different matter entirely.

Above I’m thinking, good. That 2SD line is keep on moving lower.

I’m thinking next upon seeing the pending BB Echo print: dont’t count those ducks yet.

If the next hour takes out the low, the Echo print would get scrapped.

We’ve been in a trading market ever since the week started.

A trading market is a fading market. S240 to outside the BB and back (blue arrows).

  if (dir[i]==0 && Low[i]<iMA(symbol,0,240,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-20*Point && Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,240,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-10*Point 
   && (RSI2[i+2]>22 || ExtATRBuffer[i]>68) && High[i+2]<iBands(symbol,0,240,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+2)
   && High[i]-Low[i]>120*Point
   ){
      ObjectCreate("Frogger"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],Low[i]-40*Point);
         ObjectSetText("Frogger"+IntegerToString(i),CharToStr(241), 36, "Wingdings", clrBlue);  
      
   }
   
      if (dir[i]==0 && High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,240,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)+20*Point && Close[i]<iBands(symbol,0,240,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-10*Point ){
      ObjectCreate("Froggeri"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],High[i]+90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("Froggeri"+IntegerToString(i),CharToStr(242), 36, "Wingdings", clrBlue);  
   }
   
   
   if (dir[i]==0 && High[i]>iMA(symbol,0,240,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)+20*Point && Close[i]<iMA(symbol,0,240,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)+10*Point 
   && RSI2[i+2]>22 && (RSI2[i+2]<78 || ExtATRBuffer2[i]>68) && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,240,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+2)
   ){
      ObjectCreate("Froggeri"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],High[i]+90*Point);
         ObjectSetText("Froggeri"+IntegerToString(i),CharToStr(242), 36, "Wingdings", clrBlue);  
   }
   
   
      if (dir[i]==-1 && RSI2[i+10]>92){
      ObjectCreate("Froggeri"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],High[i]+170*Point);
         ObjectSetText("Froggeri"+IntegerToString(i),CharToStr(242), 36, "Wingdings", clrRed);  
   }
   

---

I have a feeling that this track is going to make a new record on Udio, partly due to the subject partly because of the extra-fast rap. O-Position is still in the lead (all-time), but unfairly, as it gets slapped after every random listen.

Achilles Dent: Chat Turban

…can count now. The downside is getting a time-out.

The manner of the return into the compression box is the difference between a trending and a trading market.

You need a big hump – 62+ directional pips within 10 hours.

Upon returning into the sub-31-zone, the new, trending direction would have to stay above the oppressed direction for a bit. I use the RSI2 reading for a bit of disqualification – and the oppressed side has to be oppressed all along (10 hours).

 if (
   ExtATRBuffer2[i+1]<31 && RSI2[i]<90 &&
   ExtATRBuffer[i+2]>31 && ExtATRBuffer[i+1]<31 && ExtATRBuffer[i]<28 && ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,10,i)]>62){
          ObjectCreate("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,1, Time[i], 0);
            ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrBrown);
            ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,6);
            ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_STYLE,STYLE_DOT);
             ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
             
             ObjectCreate("LINUSZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i],55);
             ObjectSetText("LINUSZ"+IntegerToString(i),"Cut/OH: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(High[i],4),4)+"+", 26, "Impact", clrCrimson);
             
             }
             
   if (
   ExtATRBuffer[i+1]<31 && RSI2[i]>8 &&
   ExtATRBuffer2[i+2]>31 && ExtATRBuffer2[i+1]<31 && ExtATRBuffer2[i]<28 && ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,10,i)]>62){
          ObjectCreate("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,1, Time[i], 0);
            ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrLimeGreen);
            ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,6);
            ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_STYLE,STYLE_DOT);
             ObjectSet("LINUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
             
             ObjectCreate("LINUSZ"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i],55);
            ObjectSetText("LINUSZ"+IntegerToString(i),"Cut/OH: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i],4),4)+"-", 26, "Impact", clrGreen);
            
             
             }   

---

This was my project for the day:

There goes the capitulation. 10 hours+ without RSI2 greater than 92.

On the 12th hour NFP.

ObjectCreate("PENELOPED"+6,OBJ_LABEL,2, 0,0);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_CORNER,1);
    ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_XDISTANCE,0);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_YDISTANCE,20);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray); 
  ObjectSetText("PENELOPED"+6, DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,10,0)],2),1),19,"Arial Black");
  if (ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,10,0)]<35 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,10,0)]>8) {ObjectSetText("PENELOPED"+6,"TBUY "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,10,0)],2),1),19,"Arial Black");
   ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGreen); 
  }
  

  ObjectCreate("PENELOPED"+9,OBJ_LABEL,2, 0,0);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+9,OBJPROP_CORNER,3);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+9,OBJPROP_XDISTANCE,0);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+9,OBJPROP_YDISTANCE,20);
  ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+9,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray); 
  ObjectSetText("PENELOPED"+9,DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,10,0)],2),1),19,"Arial Black");
  if (ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,10,0)]<35 && RSI2[ArrayMaximum(RSI2,10,0)]<92) {ObjectSetText("PENELOPED"+9,"TSELL "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,10,0)],2),1),19,"Arial Black");
   ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+9,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrRed); 
  }

Which leaves us with what?

All systems go would be CF1 and CF2 of the same color and Trending Sell / Trending Buy approval from Vax.

CF1 has not changed, until an ECHO or a BBECHO print on the downside, this remains RED. In fact, a fresh ECHO print was made in the hour before the NFP reinforcing the signal.

CF2 has finally changed, it is now red with absolute volatility expansion breaches at over 49.

For the first time since the 1.12 top.

There is a gray volatility compression divergence,

They have utilized the Money Flow reversal zone’s breakout option.

A 3.49x stretch was achieved, which could trigger a mean reversion to the daily E-9. It is going to be at around 1.1060 on Monday, moving about 20 pips a day lower. The bear’s game would be not letting the mean reversion play out by shorting about 40 pips lower than the E9 of Lows.

The Swing High has finally been printed, and a continuation could come 40-56 higher than this week’s low (typically 53/56 pips) which would put the price back at 1.10 at some point.

One last remark is that the daily stochastic reading is too high for today to be the swing low. It was at 13.6 and the optimal range to hit is 8.5 to 4, but of course, this Oscillator is bound to move lower, but typically a lower low is in the cards before a move back up.

1.1008-1.1017 is the optimal zone for a bear to reload.

In the meantime, I made a Synth album to listen to.

(Second divergent hump that is).

Trading is a never-ending learning curve. I have felt a million times in my life that I had enough edge to make money indefinitely, then the market throws something at you have never seen before. You must evolve.

There are these textbook nonsense ideas about what is a trend. You cannot call anything a trend until you start measuring for volatility compression. That is what my Vax tool is for, but some oscillators like an RSI2 HL2 can be also used for further confirmation. Yup, continuous buying/selling hits close to home.

As Benjamin has pointed out, there’s always a higher timeframe that would be against the narrative you are trying to vindicate. This higher high higher low definition is pure nonsense. By the time you identify a matching pair, the flag could be over with.

Forget the fractal nature, as a trader you would never need to go beyond the 1H metric – or below 30M for that matter.

A EurUsd trending market is without counter-directional moves sustaining for more than an hour (2 candles) beyond 31 pips and having done this for at least 10 hours. The confirmation is when the RSI2 is unable to penetrate the last 10% of the full range.

Here as soon as you could call a trend the trend gets called off.

Understand how black and white this is: once the Expansionary Measuring Leg has printed, there are two options: they get in within the pullback not exceeding 13 pips for a wave 3 up or they let it slide back and close by more than 15. If the latter happens, you have to scale back in your short hedge with the back and fill and slap on some extra to make it worthwhile.

Buying the kickback or selling EM1 failure. The yellow diagonal shows the EM1 failure’s kickback – scale in there, pip by pip (10-13 pips again – how interesting!).

As you can see, if an RSI2 90 (or 10) print happens at the beginning of a trending move, it cancels it whilst appearing after prolonged trending, and it triggers the last, capitulation move.

The last leg is normally 35-53 pips long.

On the upside the 3 legs had a rather similar look – in the opposite color.

When I say, I am a music producer, do not think I am a rapist lacer that is kicking females to shreds.

As for the Wave 2 up, 1.1076 is option #1 and 1.1129 is option #2

2nd Money Flow Reversal zone was hit.

I can tell you how things work for real, but not sure what you are going to do with it without plots and proper indicators.

First, get used to the letters. M stands for measuring leg, the EM is an Expansionary Measuring Leg (override) and D is the Divergent leg.

The brown diagonal line is the 10-pips kick back of the EM on the downside that started this prolonged move down.

Yes, this wave is complete to the downside.

Now, why did I text to my coworker today at the open that this could come down to 1.1050?

These were the levels to work with based on the last condolidation mean:

These numbers I refer to as W3C(close end) for the first number and W3F(far end) for the second number. M would be the middle.

When you get a follow-through (up to 13 pips kickback bought) of the EM, you are in a Wave 3.

If you are the visual type, the orange square is the likely target area (bell curve).

This of course is carried over statistical knowledge.

As for finding the consolidation mean, I would use 12-sample CI on the hourly, but for better accuracy, I have actually reached after 15-minute data and half that candle to find the value (48-sample of course). A cross-over above 53 is considered a full charge and 65+ would mean an extra high charge.

I know, this has nothing to do with Inner City Mama’s lectures.

Now to provide you with some garden variety trading stuff, here is the latest Shapiro.

& I have a tendency to pull out my remaining hair every time I hear about Umar Ashraf and his Tradezella.

Who are these people, what do they want and why don’t they just roll over and die???!

Trading menu

ML squeeze breakout w/ 0.2/2 trail -> volatility expansion reversal moratorium

EML1 breakout (kick back <15 pips) trail TGT W3M

EML1 failure (kickback >15 pips) scale in – TGT 50 pips (not preferred near the E50)
EML2 kickback 18, 28, 38 pips size based on control functions alignment TGT 50, 60, 70 pips

…

A Wave 4 up would break above the SOB confirming that the volatility compression program was turned off (allowing) for a pullback greater than 31 pips. A Wave 5 down would likely print a lower low, but not necessarily by much.

Full title: The Counter-productive Nature of Sudden Volatility Expansion.

Start by accepting the idea of measuring volatility in 1.5-hour terms. Yes, you must go down to 30 mins to do this.

dvol[i]=NormalizeDouble((iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,2,i+1))-Low[i])*10000,2);
uvol[i]=NormalizeDouble((High[i]-(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i+1))))*10000,2);

The BB filter used is a 60-sample (2SD) over medians.

Off we go.

There are 3 different ways to hit the limit.

An absolute limit is the diagonal going beyond 49 pips outside the bands.

if (uvol[i]>49 || (uvol[i]>32 && High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,60,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i))) ObjectSetText("Citera"+IntegerToString(i), "          "+NormalizeDouble((High[i]-(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i+1))))*10000,2)+" SELL", 18, "Impact", Gold);

if (dvol[i]>49 || (dvol[i]>32 && Low[i]>iBands(symbol,0,60,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))) ObjectSetText("Citera"+IntegerToString(i), "         "+NormalizeDouble((iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,2,i+1))-Low[i])*10000,2)+" BUY", 18, "Impact", Gold);

The second way is staying within the bands, but exceeding 32 pips (fluctuation size).

if (uvol[i]>49 || (uvol[i]>32 && High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,60,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i))) 

if (dvol[i]>49 || (dvol[i]>32 && Low[i]>iBands(symbol,0,60,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))) 

The third way (A & B version) is when the first candle of the diagonal exceeds 22 pips and you get a new 6-sample high or the first low of the diagonal is outside the bands.

if (High[i+3]-Low[i+3]>220*Point && iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,2,i))==iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,6,i)))

 if (High[i+3]-Low[i+3]>220*Point && Low[i+3]<iBands(symbol,0,60,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+3))

Tadaa… new directional logic. Almost entirely based on volatility surges.

What is up?

For one thing, the lack of supply.

It may not sound like much, but a 22+ pips 30-min candle is rare.

Here’s one.

…and above is Friday’s. Like a left and a right shoulder.

Of course, if it plays out. What normally happens after an extended range is an additional 100-pip move, so a 1.1310+ move may be in the cards.

Currently, in terms of bias, I keep track of two different systems.

My Echo system shows a buy (control function 1)

(the red strike out is too eager selling, not enough separation from the 8 EMO, the yellow divergence has the same issue)

Control function #2 also had the last print in yellow for a buy.

Being all out short may not be the best idea here. We could see a bow back to the lower Bollinger for a “h” print.

---

Yup, #27.