aka Knee Jerk at your leisure or Russell & the carousel or Ruth becoming ruthless.
Growing a bit impatient here with having all.answers at my disposal yet still forgetting to raking it in. The last piece of the hustle is putting together the puzzle.
I pointed out the Triple F.
I have called the dip inside the Municipal channel a condition. Yet I set my mind to look for a relief condition.
I just want you to know that noone leaves through the door they enter.
So, no incentive to gap it just yet.
After the 3 F prints = Condition the market went for the Level, or 1.0865 (F2++).
The buying got embedded, the money flow got some boost right at the trendline (purple line, yellow oval) and the break up was on (in a bit volatile manner). The magenta field got exceeded on 3 different occassions (G1, G2, G3?) and a correction to a Relief condition is due (120 sample stoch back to 50 read or 14-sample 30-minute stoch getting more oversold than the recent low reading = continuation divergence), but I would not consider this to be a high probability trade, since we are in the reversal / sell zone yet again, between the Point of No Return yellow lines, the thick of it. No spinner / new money flow reversal zone has been printed due to lack of distance from the low and the lack of 200-sample high.
Talking about conditions, the Money Flow should always precede the Stoch 120 in getting overbought / oversold, otherwise a False Start call has to be made, and a short term reversal divergence should take care of the rest.
The S-356 band is a net not unlike what you would see at a tennis court.
That said, if you go back to the first image, you would realize that the pressure is being applied from ever closer, thus a rip through the fabric is becoming ever more likely. Thanks to the movement of the E-32, the attack is coming from the “same place” (magenta field) , but in absolute term from a lower price. We now should see a move culminating in a Green Fx1 print.
S1 has been getting pushed back little by little.
If the net just does not want to give, there’s always after hours for the market maker to interfere if that is where the profit lies. An open below the new S1 = problem solved.
Read if you are into context, candles and oscillators.
Let’s train your eyes to spot reliefs (re-calibrations).
A relief is your 120-sample stochastic returning to the 50 level or your 14-sample MFI hitting an extreme opposite of the trading direction.
The combination of an MFI strength (/weakness) and a Stochastic strength (/weakness) provides with a level.
The puncture of this level is the action.
The most important thing on this chart is the yellow diagonal: after the relief the move back up was sold at will resulting in a lower high and a change of direction.
From here on the levels are provided by the conditon combos + punctures and the reliefs would occur on the upside until an MFI reversal zone would be printed and tested.
The interrupted green line is the E-16 displaced by 35 pips. The volatility expansion was too sudden, and this relief move back up is the punishment for it.
Imagine being in the position of commanding good lot sizes. I smell serious gains here.
As for the shaded blocks, I wanted to have a visual reminder for the market having to prove itself: it is not enough to print a x3 and expect that the opposite safety line would get taken out next and everything is full throttle to the other direction. In fact, the back to back triple F blocks may display a failure to reach the safety line and relapse for the additional x3 F-s.
A dip in the Municipal Trench highlighted with Snow Patrol Vehicles.
Levels
Now find the level if P/NR is not present and W3F is too far in one go (1.0881). F2++ was just missed at 1.0862 (black arrow).
What’s next?
This was a consolidation + a liquidity break.
I think that P/NR (Point of No hepbuRn) would prove to be the lower low to kick off the move down.
If the current sell condition was a freshly overbought Money Flow, then the level should be in the W3 box (1.0764-1.0748). A trip on the safety line would mean 1.0806 -34 to -46 pips or 1.0772 to 1.0760 for a cover zone. The overlap is 1.0764-1.0760. S2 is at 1.0752
This is where a Wave 2 is expected to start from, at the top of the MA ribbon (MA Sell).
The Der Wish market model (Axel S V1.4) is becoming a precision tool as well.
The Red and Green F-s received a counter logic that includes time out resets. The difficulty was the spread out bunch to synchronize whilst finding a fresh start I used a 100-sample stagnation.
I was not conscious that I found everything I would ever need to find the turns in 2021. It took 3 more years and these recent updates.
The idea of a Full Discharge was an innocent idea of mine, rooted in nobody’s works. The idea of the “Safety” goes back to 2017ish rooting in the concept of “Embedding”.
Full Discharge up i>0 && ((Low[i]<AxelU[i] || Low[i+1]<AxelU[i+1]) && Close[i]>AxelU[i] && (Close[i+1]<AxelU[i+1] || Close[i+2]<AxelU[i+2]) && High[i-1]<High[i])
Sell side pictures
With the following one some discression had to be used:
Current picture below
Full Discharge Down i>0 && (High[i]>AxelL[i]&& Close[i]<AxelL[i]+50*Point && (Close[i+1]>AxelL[i+1] || Close[i+2]>AxelL[i+2]) && Low[i-1]>Low[i]) || (Low[i]<AxelL2[i]) && Close[i]>AxelL[i]+100*Point)
Buy side pictures
You could add additional rules such as wait for x2 to print before going aggressive, x3 could receive a small beat (i.e. down below), and do not forget to plot the S-356 (in Sienna).
I spoke about the difference of a triple F batch and the triple F spread in the previous entry.
The UK is the place where you get to vote with your monthly 3 pounds between a limping donkey and a girl that’s about to be raped.
It would be a long one, so grab a stiff tea.
Live & pay attention.
Nick Rhodes did in fact call the bottom. That red print after a triple reversal divergence was in fact Magenta until the day ended. RSI does re-calibrate and using arb levels runs a risk of missclassification. Perhaps it was due to .1 difference in the settled reading or even less.
Beautiful visuals: fake out above the descending channel. 1.0876 was a listed level.
Yesterday’s pro volume was a hint that they were up to no good.
A bit more about conditions and levels.
Plausible buy conditions include (beyond a previously posted example of Money Flow oversold), a dip into the Municipal Trench (E-207) or the 120-sample 30-min Stochastic returning below the 50 mark after having marked time up there.
As for targets, the thick yellow lines are previous P/NR levels.
..and so it’s time to name this market model.
3 wishes granted. Der Wish would do.
The market is going between Triple F prints and may turn back at the net, the S-356 per hourly.
A Triple F Batch has good momentum behind, and the S-356 may be only a temporary obstacle.
A Triple F Stretch may not get further than a scare-exertion on the opposite Safety Line. All bark, but no bite.
Last chapter is about the digestion of how a reversal zone works.
The shy of level is the Tolerance Level. The 2x level is the Must Overhedge level. It has a potential other end 36 pips out, but it could fail at 26 or 16.
During lots of news coming out like today, in the illiquid market they can easily get a break out move started. The 16-pip is sort of a minimum the hedge level would stumble over. Protective trail stop (CODE 2) highely suggested.
I’ve been twerking on the railroad all the live-long day…
All you can do is evolve. Find more statistically relevant data.
Make notes, i.e:
Triple F batch -> F2-... -> F2++ to F3- Triple F can turn into more by consolidating around the S356. Embedded Dynamite (money flow oversold) -> W3c / Safety Breach Target.
First the throw off. Notice how the Impulse Waves all end up stepping outside the Window Envelope (Blue Lines), whilst the corrections fall short of it by 15-25 pips (Black Arrows).
Price turned where a corrective eave would, yet I think this is a Wave 4 up.
Now, here comes statistical knowledge. Once the Safety Line is hot and gets breached, the maximum expectation would be around 34 pips extra.
This is the 1.4 version of the Axel S., no more free updates beyond V1.3.
There is always a condition and a level on any given day. In our case the W3 close end (1.0837) coincided with the Safety Set Back level.
The condition can be a Triple F Batch. Three Green F-s are a Go Long At Market.
The target on the first leg up was F3 minus or 1.0784 at the time, for that was 90 pips away from the 200-sample low.
We are currently missing the third F & the money flow situation has plotted a new reversal zone.
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