How does Crypt face trade on Tether basis when most exchanges de-listed all USDT pairs?
(Not that I ever cared to trade crypto.)
– How does one not get a margin call at a draw down of 60 million? Where did the initial capital come from that had to be 85 million plus?
– Why have I never met someone in commodoties trading to fill me in on dynamics such as “when the price of oil is high, they can just give away the natural gas?”
– Which broker can afford to dish out 180 million without going bankrupt?
– Why is he distinguishing between futures and forwards?
What if KLF did not stop making music?
What if Terence Trent D’Arby did end up becoming more famous than Michael Jackson, like he said he would?
What if there was a sequel made for Kefren’s Desert Dream for real?
I suspect I ended up in an alternate universe.
This is a journey, what’s going on?
Anyways, the lesson today is about persistence. Persistent weakness / stength has to be compensated for by a reversal divergence.
Persistance has a correlation with staying outside (expanding on) the current volatility curve. 3 hours or more is where persistance may become relevant.
Why would people want to give money to those who do not / cannot trade at all, is beyond me.
There are people like Peter Brandt that know that they cannot make money with trading (but suggests supplementary income sources that are “trading related”) and do not try to wear the wolf’s coat.
I guess, Trading Decoded means just this: you don’t have to trade to be called a trader.
All you have to do is charge a monthly $100 fee and send out some tweets, then point to some candles that “here I went short” via puts, here I covered them, make things sound plausible and never lose any money. You know, 40 people that’s 4k a month.
YouTube makes things worse by a whole lot. By blending truth and pretence, they lend credibility to absolute phoney stuff.
TPT is a legitimate success, selling vanity items.
But then there are the surroundings, like this guy whom may come accross as legit the first time around thanks to the video below.
Yet, once you look at him closely reciting textbook stuff like risk 1%, one trade a day etc. that would never leave to riches, and then showing off his TPT wrapping and watches rubbing into the smell of the dead like a dog way too much for comfort, you know that he does not make any money trading. Stage shows, high life, none of it is a real trader’s M.O.
There is of course Cameron Zeus, who repeatedly blows up his account, but makes up a lot of it by selling courses and YouTube revenue with the low operational cost living on Bali, and of course gets a cut from the Forex broker as welll (rebates) but he talks a lot of shit to cover up all in a thick fog.
Once a bartender, always a bartender – comes to mind every time I come across this crook. I have a bartender license too, but never worked as one. An interesting type of document forgery is when you forge losses to explain how you lost that was imaginary profits to begin with to even out the clash with your current reality.
The most lethal stuff is of course the Tai Lopez / Greg Secker kind where you cannot cancel a subscription that you did not read the footnote to.
This guy comes on YouTube with the unlimited funds that he gets from retailing SmartCharts – the worst thing you can have for trading is a one size fits all solution. Not sure how much he gets to keep aout of that 4k, but there is a montly £150 or so I believe also.
Every time he is selling you a dream, an image, a flavor that supposed to equate in your head to the “trader”.
I am keep on imagining one day making parodies of him saying stuff like “I used to work 9 to five, but what made me a millionaire was working everyday a few minutes at fiver to 9”.
My version would say “but what made me a trillionaire was working 5 seconds to Mars”.
Also, when he claims that you are “joining him” on his everyday routine of swimming 17 laps at a random hostel with a pool, talking quietly, carefully watching that noone pops into the scope of the camera – well I would like to repeat that one day from my own back pool.
Samuel Leech. Sigh. Not even worth my breath.
Umar Ashraf. I told you a million times about people flasing you 1-minute charts. Fake it till you fake it some more. Don’t forget to up the ante.
Journaling, that’s what does it. Retards. These schmucks could not make a winning trade to save their lives.
I am not going to take on Ira Epstein today, although he is yet another guy that does not trade with his own money. Can you guess why? He misses the first thing about trading by thinking it is analogue.
Fundamentals are a circus of ants. People can build castles made out of delirium.
Everything that matters can be extracted from the charts.
Trading is the ability to measure, to compare and to exploit. I made 3 of my best indidcators in 2023, after having made indicators for 13 years. Also, for the first time I can work with time and have a good understanting of corrections; I can plan for a day or so out. It is not true that there is nothing to be found.
I am not going to take on Unfunded trading either, but FTMO according to some video (unverified info) paid 10+ million in taxes last year – which would mean they pocketed 3x that. Not a bad sum for a 3-men operation (one is just signed for stuff and goes to jail if push comes to shove) and since there is no money ever being forwarded to a 3rd party broker, never any funding occurs, so stop calling it funded trading.
Here Unculured Currency takes a swing at these prop firms with his example of clearing the entry month, after which he is put on another 3-month trial, where he initially makes money on paper (with the sim account), then loses it all with failing the second trial >
10 Hours of intensive selling (14 hours of correction) doubling down on support. Interesting that Goldie (buying the right for a no break extension) is not getting violated even with the increased spread. In an uptrend you want to buy weakness. The purple bars (2+) are a sign of weakness.
I’m thinking the ABC is over, during the news things got sped up and B printed less than 1 hour. The red beam highligts the high where the break out occured – and now being backtested.
Yea, I know that RSI2 is on the floor, but corrective waves can and will end on strength versus the 5 wave down that had to have a divergence.
Between the two guard rails the market is completely neutral, but overall it is the bulls’ turn.
Image shows where the daily RSI2 would be safe to sell. A good 3 steps up from here.
If you look at the momentum boxes, this kind of looks like an inverse head & shoulders.
It is entirely possible that a Wave 3 up would start next week.
A return to the S20 would mean 1.08 first.
The only counter evidence I have is the Rabbits that show a cap at 1.0798.
The weekly candle overall made a jab on the blue trendline (as wekk as on the S3).
Scooter is the 4H 216 sample HL2 BB with 2.5 std deviations.
Did price catch up with it?
At 1.0637 it did.
Do I like the divergece of the wave 5 of Wave 5 of WAVE 5?
I like it fine.
Is a 3x stretch from the mean a good starting point for a reversion?
Perfetto.
The new beams? Along the lines of the volatility breach reversal, it is a similar filter trying to tackle a reversal condition. Still about the brief action outside, the close back in and a clean RSI2 peak printed.
Since the Magic Box was busted, I don’t quite know what this means. There would be a move to the upper guard rail (approx 175 pips from the low), like I have been saying. It is unclear at the moment if this move would continue afterwards.
There was a Push scare on the 14-sample weekly Window Envelope.
The resistance levels are on the image (R1-R3). We may have seen the running flat correction. Price is closing back above the S3.
I did not miss the turn-around box, which is holding still despite the millionth charge. Price managed to catch up with the shadow of an earlier 200-sample displaced by 100 pips.
The beavior is a bit unfamiliar, especially that the last two boxes, which were both printed on the upside were like heavily coated with repellant and price was running away from them like there was no tomorrow.
This one on the other hand is like a tourist attraction, it is getting explored extensiely.
This is like a neverending Wave 5.
Of course, the end is near, but I don’t like the hourly RSI2 pusing the floor. There is no divergence yet.
Scooter is at 1.0641.
Wave 5 of Wave 5 of Wave 5 still missing.
You know I mean?
Who’s that gigolo on the street With his hands in his pockets and his crocodile feet Hanging off the curb, looking all disturbed At the boys from home, they all came running They were making noise, manhandling toys That’s the girls on the block with the nasty girls Wearing padded bras sucking beers through straws Dropping down their drawers, where did you get yours?
Gigolo, huh, sukka? Gigolo, gigolo, huh, sukka?
Who’s looking good today? Who’s looking good in every way? No style rookie You better watch don’t mess with me
No money man could win my love It’s sweetness that I’m thinking of We always hang in a Buffalo Stance We do the dive every time we dance I’ll give you love baby not romance I’ll make a move nothing left to chance So don’t you get fresh with me
Get funky Yeah Timmy Tell it like it is Check out this DJ
So you say you wanted money but you know it’s never funny When your shows worn through and there’s a rumble in your tummy But you had to have style get a gold tooth smile Put a girl on the corner so you can make a pile Committed a crime and went inside It was coming your way but you had to survive When you lost your babe, you lost the race Now you’re looking at me to take her place
Who’s looking good today? Who’s looking good in every way? No style rookie You better watch don’t mess with me
Smokin’. Not cokin’. Get funky sax. Looking good, hanging with the wild bunch. Looking good in a Buffalo Stance. Looking good when it comes to the crunch Looking good’s a state of mind State of mind don’t look behind you State of mind or you’ll be dead State of mind may I remind you Bomb the Bass… rock this place! What is he like? What’s he like anyway? Yo’ man what do you expect the guy’s a gigolo man You know I mean?
No moneyman can win my love It’s sweetness that I’m thinking of. We always hang in a Buffalo Stance We do the dive every time we dance I’ll give you love baby not romance I’ll make a move nothing left to chance So don’t you get fresh with me
No moneyman can win my love It’s sweetness that I’m thinking of. We always hang in a Buffalo Stance We do the dive every time we dance I’ll give you love baby not romance I’ll make a move nothing left to chance So don’t you get fresh with me
Wind on my face, sound in my ears Water from my eyes, and you on my mind As I sink, diving down deep… deeper into your soul. No moneyman can win my love It’s sweetness that I’m thinking of. We always hang in a Buffalo Stance We do the dive every time we dance I’ll give you love baby not romance I’ll make a move nothing left to chance So don’t you get fresh with me
There was a Loneliness channeling correction (Blue).
After 15 hours of selling there was a price of new spin. I need to include this with the label. If the 1st or the 2nd leg is 15 hours long, another sequence is coming. 5 is highlighted – it made a support.
As you can see, there is still room left in the magic box, but as for continuation after a correction to at least the Upper Guard Rail, it is now guaranteed (1.0680 was the halfway mark).
The 9 hours is referreing to exceeding the 14× 4 hours initial projected birth date. Also this suits the context, since I started talking about incubation time earlier.
Karma Comedian
More childhood darling jokes?
– Why is it good for a pregnant woman?
– Because she won’t be hit in the face by a swinging door.
I had a Math & Physics teacher, we went on a school trip. I kept on telling jokes. At some point he told me to to tell him a short joke, then a long one. He calculated eith the average that I recited about 863 jokes during the previous hours.
…
From support to resistance. Highly unpredictable move was that.
Channeling is the act of preventing the price from returning to the daily 9 EMA.
As you can see, the channel being referred to is the Valley of the the Green River.
The arrows show the utilization of the Lower Guard Rail.
The Guard Rails are about 7/5x fluctuation size away from the Green River Band. (On Eur/USD this means 44.8 pips displacement of say the 207 EMA of LOWS and Highs on the example above – this is why the width changes a bit).
A soft reset is price making a discharge on the daily E-9.
A correction takes price back from having been outside the valley to the other end of a valley (Guard Rail).
A deep correction takes price back from having been outside the valley to the other end of a valley plus about 2 fluctuations (Guard Rail +- 60 odd pips).
An extra deep correction takes price back from having been outside the valley to the other end of a valley plus about 4+ fluctuations (Guard Rail +- 120 odd pips).
A channeling correction is the best entry of the established trend and there are two different kinds.
The Loneliness correction entry does not make it to the other end of the 30-sample hourly BB even at the end of the C leg. The entries are 1/2 size at the 12th hourly close and 1/2 size at the 16th hourly close.
The Disregard correction entry would cross outside the 30-sample hourly BB even at the end of the C leg. It would last at least 23 hours (to maybe 40) and the RSI2 gets taken to an extreme (87.5+ / 12.5-) by all terminals of the ABC legs.
ChannelingTargets are: a lower low, 10 hours of buying / selling beyond the 8-hour EMO, a volatility breach reversal but a minimum a higher high / lower low.
A Magic Box is plotted on the 4H chart. There are two variations of it. One is an RSI2 sequence beyond a 200-sample higher high / lower low and its starting point is the high / low of the last extreme candle, the other is an outside the channel (Valley) Money Flow peak / troff in a desired range printing during an RSI2 extreme and is using the closing price for one end of the box. The box itself is 2x fulctuation size (64 pips).
A magic box, as further discussed in the previous blog entry may hold predictive clues based on price running away / penetrating by 1/3 or 1/2+ which would mean disctinctly different behavior. Also, when price isn’t running away immediately, there is a 56-hour incubation time limit (12x 4 hours).
If price would not manage get through the halfway mark of the box within the next 8 hours (+1 count) the downside would be forfeited for good. If it does, after the Correction there would be a continuation lower.
It is easy to forget that you are on the 4H chart, which does not yield precision signals.
The magic box is the reminder for this uncertainty. This however comes with something extra.
Point.
The penetration into the box yields info on the future progression.
You are looking at the boxes in chronological order.
A 50% plus penetration into the 64-pip box means continuation after correction.
The Upper Guard rail is a regular correction. The Deep Correction is 60 pips out, the extra deep is 120+ pips out.
At the bottom the magic socks only slipped 1/3 way into the box. This meant no more continuation.
Again, these are ALL the boxes that plotted.
There were 2 on the way up.
Pay attention to the upper limit of the box. After the Humvee series (End Of Move down) the backtest NEVER went beyond that level.
I think we’re about to get an important piece of info here on if we have more downside to come. A push below 1.0679 would mean continuation after correction. A failure to go beyond 1/3rd would mean NO MORE DOWNSIDE.
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