The first thing to say is that you are not smarter than a blue line. I certainly am not.
//buy the house break above 16,35, 55/yellow
if (ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]==ExtUpperBuffer_[i+2] && ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]!=EMPTY_VALUE
&& D32[i+1]>-4.5 && D32[i+1]<20
&& High[i+3]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+3] && High[i+2]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+2] && High[i+1]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1] && High[i]>High[i+1]
&& Close[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,32,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)
)
{
//sell the house break lower 16,35, 55/yellow
if (ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]==ExtLowerBuffer_[i+2] && ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]!=EMPTY_VALUE && D32NEG[i+1]<-4.5 && D32NEG[i+1]>-20
&& (D32[i+2]<7 || D32[i+2]==EMPTY_VALUE)
&& Low[i+3]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+3] && Low[i+2]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+2] && Low[i+1]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1] && Low[i]<Low[i+1])
{
The second thing is about denominations.
Wasn’t this what they were teaching you at the Online Trading Academy? Why didn’t you come to me first?
I.e. $2 bottom
1+0.5+05=2
A typical reaction is a minimum of 32 pips from the lower denominations. I have no example of a “counter” move beyond 58 pips.
From left to right:
$1 reaction from above, $1 reaction from below, $3 top (2+0.5+0.5), $3 bottom (2+1), $3 top (2+1)
So, currently we have a $2 top followed by a $1 reaction.
I’m thinking another dollar (or 2x 0.5) to be found before back, up.
Shorts
///wick out on the upside mark up
if (High[i]<High[i+1] && High[i+1]>ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]+30*Point
&& Open[i+1]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]
&& Open[i+1]>Close[i+1]
&& MathAbs(ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]-ExtUpperBuffer_[i])<30*Point
&& High[i+1]>High[i+2]-20*Point
&& High[i+1]>High[i]
)
///wick out on the downside mark up
if (Low[i+1]<ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]-30*Point
&& Open[i+1]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]
&& Open[i+1]<Close[i+1]
&& MathAbs(ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]-ExtLowerBuffer_[i])<30*Point
&& Low[i+1]<Low[i+2]+20*Point
&& Low[i]>Low[i+1]
)
///failed break out on the upside mark up
if (i>0 && High[i-1]<High[i] && High[i+2]>ExtUpperBuffer_[i+2]
&& High[i+1]>ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]+20*Point
&& High[i+1]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]+150*Point
&& High[i]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i]
)
///failed break out on the downside mark up
if (Low[i+2]<ExtLowerBuffer_[i+2]
&& Low[i+1]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]-150*Point
&& Low[i+1]<ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]-20*Point
&& Low[i]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i]
)
///near miss on the upside mark up
if (High[i+1]>ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]-30*Point
&& High[i+1]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]+25*Point
&& Close[i+1]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]
&& High[i+1]-Low[i+1]>150*Point
// && High[i+1]>High[i+2]
&& High[i+1]>High[i]
&& ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]>=ExtUpperBuffer_[i+2]
)
///near miss on the downside mark up
if (Low[i+1]<ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]+30*Point
&& Low[i+1]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]-20*Point
&& Close[i+1]>ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]
&& High[i+1]-Low[i+1]>150*Point
&& Low[i+1]<Low[i+2]
&& Low[i+1]<Low[i]
&& ExtLowerBuffer_[i+1]<=ExtLowerBuffer_[i+2]+20*Point
)
For hype monitoring/control, a 30-minute chart with an RSI2, a 30-sample Bollinger, and an 8-sample EMO is ideal. You are not improving on anything by a lower timeframe.
The hype is on after 6 consecutive closes outside the BB.
The hype should find support at the 8 EMO upon pullback.
If the RSI2 does not cross the 50 line, that’s not a pullback; call it a dip.
A correction has multiple legs and can be skewed. Meaning the second fractal merely approaches (typically within 4 pips) the fractal printed by the Measuring Leg.
The 30-sample BB, when attacked from the inside, can prompt a stall / prompt a correction; it would require new money to close outside.
The hype ends with a correction, and is followed by a squirt.
One close above the BB, one below (one re-capture attempt) & it’s over.
First stop: S-30 – E-44 reset on the hourly.
Album # 81
Silento parody (next level silly), Mercury opera-sings, new French one, rap, disco, alternative. Oh, and Say Goodbye To The Bad Rhymes.
I find the drum-use rather creative in this one:
I am a signals guy, always have been.
I just need to get around to puttung the relation marks right. The best performer currently:
You would think I’m cherry-picking, but not. Repaint? Sure, the first hour is needed for the paint to dry
Does this look overoptimized to you?
///wick out on the upside mark up
if (High[i]<High[i+1] && High[i+1]>ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]+30*Point
&& Open[i+1]<ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]
&& Open[i+1]>Close[i+1]
&& MathAbs(ExtUpperBuffer_[i+1]-ExtUpperBuffer_[i])<30*Point
&& High[i+1]>High[i+2]-20*Point
)
I looked back some history, and could not find a one day 200+ pips candle coming off of a lower low (not even from beyond 4.5x stretch). The 16-EMA still has not been reached.
However, I think the diagonal red plot is right for using the low as a starting point from 2 days earlier. There could be a higher high in the coming days, but typically not more than 15 pips extra.
Now with the full consolidation the Pendulum’s origo was reset near the previous high leaving room for an extension-move.
I’m showing an open top print (purple diagonal), and the M.O. is 3 more attempts to go higher and two marginal higher highs in total.
In terms of a possible time out: to show any intent, you would need to see a 3-4 pips beat within 37 hours. If no higher was made by hour 53, go short with size.
After that, there would be a move to the 100-pip stop (2nd image) which would be pulled higher by the number of pips they would manage to tag on.
I do not get the sudden rate-cut argument at all in this relative game; first of all it has not happened yer, and if it does, do you think Europe and the rest of the wotld would not be participating in the race to the bottom? BOE is taking charge already.
Check out Freddy Mercury singing my song, A Jolt Of Fire – coming out soon with album #81.
There was an Iceberg order (yellow arrows) where they accumulated Euro in a big way. See the blue line? My only trendline plot on the entire chart, hinting a backtest from below (kiss-goodbye?)
The embedded oversold stochastic unraveled & went to the other extreme.
The price landed in the moat, just behind the E-9.
The mean reversion projections were just about perfect.
…although this mean reversion took 1.5 hours versus a 2-day statistical average. By the way, from the 6x fluctuation maximum peak, it took 41 hours to return.
This looks like an inverse head & shoulders.
Of course, you could have a deeper right shoulder or at least a double. The cyan-shaded two hourly candles are professionals’ profit-taking on the first leg up.
There’s also the end of the pendulum at “300”.
Normally, you would get a swing back from here (to the other end). I certainly don’t think that a gap up is a possibility here, but a gap down would help recharge the energy faster.
This large daily candle was also a recharge move for the daily energy.
The upper reversal zone starts at 1.1581 – how interesting is that?!
The daily stochastic would be out of the oversold, which could attract fresh shorts.
I certainly don’t like the speed of the move up, but I leave you with some claws.
Whatever low we get on Monday, if that holds for the next 3 days, the move could continue (see 2 C) or if the 2.2x fluctuation maximum line (white F + green diagonal example) remains untouched after 3 daily lows (inside days don’t count), you’ll get another leg up.
Liquidity breaks are typically counterproductive.
Check the difference between the starting points below:
The first one was above the EMA band. The second one, after a maximum effort, just managed to put is head above the waterline. Not my idea of a start of a healthy new leg up. From below the weekly S3 (1.1414)
I have another trendline for you on the weekly. Another kiss-goodbye look. Probably a major gap down would be my thinking based on this one. Not looking constructive at the slightest.
This top seems to be the mirror image of the bottom at this point.
They lubed up the selling at the S-30 (cyan).
Now, here comes a conspiracy theory.
There are breakouts and fakeouts. In the following image, the two blue ovals are breakouts at the edge (/prior edge) of the house. The red rectangle is a breakout failure.
I put a white rectangle around what I think is the matching counterpoints for 3 different breakouts.
The left oval had a 16-pip breakout. When the price came back, it went past the Back Of House, since it went for the Cyan, pro volume candle.
The right oval was a 35-pip breakout. It came back to the BOH for a near miss.
My theory is this: on the way up, the volatility was getting downgraded. 55+ pips, 35+ pips, 16+ pips & a fakeout. On the way down, the volatility should grow. If the A leg managed 35+ pips, the C should do at least 55 beyond the current or a prior edge of the house. 1.1714-(55+ pips) = 1.1658 or so.
Also, once 50+ pips were reached, the market could get another instant drop after a bow-back graze of the E-24, like so:
What comes after 50+ in the sequence? 16 again.
Note how the house also moved down quite a bit. Also, you want the house to be upright.
ExtUpperBuffer[i]=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,12,i))+460*Point;
ExtLowerBuffer[i]=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,12,i))-460*Point;
if (ExtUpperBuffer[i]>ExtLowerBuffer[i]) {ExtUpperBuffer_[i]=ExtUpperBuffer[i]; ExtLowerBuffer_[i]=ExtLowerBuffer[i];
The house is the 13-hour low plus 46 pips and the 13-hour high minus 46 pips.
There is one level at 1.1664 and one at 1.1630.
Guest voices on Album #80
Brendan Perry (Dead Can Dance)>
David Bowie>
Mylene Farmer>
Neneh Cherry>
Paul Chernoff died in 2017. He used to talk about how he inherited his brain from his mother, who seemed to understand when he was telling her about quantum mechanics. Paul usually arrived late for the daily specials.
Sherwood Parker died in 2018. He would be in most nights calling in ahead of time, either a Chicken Broschette or a Nicoise. He used to ride up on the Oakland hills on a bike. He would disappear every once in a while to Switzerland, the CERN particle accelerator.
Ed Monroe used to have a brunch date at 7 AM sharp with a realtor lady. He used to live in the Biotime warehouse where they keep the cryogenically preserved people upside down in drums. He liked my poems. Black coffee, 2 eggs, toast, and anything else at a great discount. He has an Instagram with his artwork.
The story is a time-out. A momentum slip (see stochastic bars). An end of an M leg (Measuring).
A stall at a Pro volume block (cyan).
This weakness may escalate, so my current plan is to short (/cover longs) 7-10 pips shy of the 60-sample HL2 BB on the 30 min. See below the fractals constantly missing the upper line.
Despite the fact that when the large structure is over you would see a volatility whip (in white) that would usually tag the Bollinger band one more time (1.1848+ currently).
High volume hourly prints are a great clue. Can you see the projection lines and the result of the interaction here?
Note also how there was no momentum (Stochastic Bar print) on the last pending fractal print (higher high).
The levels you map beforehand.
I was asked yesterday early morning about what the EU would do next.
I responded with 3 lines.
Top’s not in.
Low 1.17 first.
1.1784 could be EOF W2.
A thrust on the upside would take anywhere from 2.5 hours to 5.5 typically. I don’t acknowledge the move below 46 pips, and I have a 57-pip minimum for a top to be considered as a colored plot and 84 pips to be instantly called a closed top.
The movement has not been overwhelmingly strong. The fact that after the new fractal print, the following candle managed to get below the 8 EMO hints that this is going to be a yellow divergence, meaning not optimal length of separation.
There are 30 more minutes before the new fractal will be advanced on the hourly. In 1 hour and 30 minutes, it can still be voided and the 2-hour timer restarted.
…
The breaches are still missing. The breach of the market speed trendline, and a high that manages to go outside the 30-sample BB.
I can’t yet call a top.
By the way, here’s the gray volatility divergence that was plotted at the bottom.
If you are curious how the system responds to a blank shot like today’s, it calls it another HH. 21 minimum is the pips of pullback before proceeding.
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