The Tide Is Turning

Tid means Time. Also, a way to shorten, Tide Turning.

The circled numbers are settled ones. They change at the top of the hour with a new settlement. The first number is the maximum distance achieved from the 10-sample low/high, and the second is the 200-sample one.

Volatility measurements that can help you figure out the point when the counter-directional volatility can no longer be compressed and it steps outside the trench.

 ExtATRBuffer[i]= -1*(iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,sample-1,i+1))-Low[i+1])*-10000;
 ExtATRBuffer2[i]=(High[i+1]-iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,sample-1,i+1)))*10000;
 ExtATRBufferf[i]= -1*(iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,200-1,i+1))-Low[i+1])*-10000;
 ExtATRBuffer2f[i]=(High[i+1]-iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,200-1,i+1)))*10000;  

I monitor for a 1:8 ratio on the upside and a 1:10 ratio on the downside. It is the start of a 3-point or even larger turn, so the low/high is by no means untouchable, but likely isn’t gonna get exceeded by much. 10 pips would be a lot already, 1-4 pips is typical. Only when the skew is steep would you not be able to match the low/high.

if (High[i+2]>iMA(symbol,0,32,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2) && ExtATRBuffer[i]<25 && ExtATRBuffer[i+1]<ExtATRBufferf[i+1]/8 && ExtATRBuffer[i]>ExtATRBufferf[i]/8)

if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]<22 && ExtATRBuffer2[i+1]<ExtATRBuffer2f[i+1]/10 && ExtATRBuffer2[i]>ExtATRBuffer2f[i]/10)

There are not a lot of market models that can keep you in the picture and on the right side during a Powell press conference. So, let’s see what happened in the house.

For the show a Leg2 ended in a tide turn.

Inside the house, there were 3 Failures of trying to leave at the front of the house, 2 misses at the back of the house and then you got a the first leg out. After that the market was either going to come back to the E-32 or fail to re-enter the house.

The first leg ultimately made it to the yellow, maximum effort line (professional volume appeared) and a tide turn printed.

What are we looking for? After Wave 1, the E-32 is behaving as a resistance. If this were to go out at the rear end of the house, you would have a 2nd leg that you should not be fading at least until you see a ride change.

No one really has the upper hand while inside the house. A failure or a miss by the front end may still be in the cards first, since a tide print hasn’t been made so far.

Overall, this is going lower, as there has not yet ben a thust on the downside, but this does not mean short at market.


Glossary.

 if (ExtATRBuffer[0]>24 && ExtATRBuffer[0]<32 && ExtATRBuffer[1]<28 && ExtATRBuffer[2]<28) ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrYellow); 
  ObjectSetText("PENELOPED"+6,"Short Comp: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer[0],2),1)+"   "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,10,0)],2),1),19,"Arial Black");
   if (ExtATRBuffer[0]<(ExtATRBufferf[0]/8)) ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrMediumSpringGreen);
 

Mu

The main difference between an open top/bottom and a closed one is the thrust distance from the 6-hour low/high exceeding 84 pips. Those are the green and the red lines.

Open means that one or more higher highs / lower lows are of high likelihood.

If it does not say closed, it is open.

Now, a bit about the house where it all happens.

The house must be upright, meaning the 12-sample low plus 46 pips has to be above the 12-sample high minus 46 pips. In other instances, I dim the line.

ExtUpperBuffer[i]=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,12,i))+460*Point;
       ExtLowerBuffer[i]=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,12,i))-460*Point;

F is a failure at or just outside the front or the back door.

32 is the 32 EMA. This is where they would step up with aggression to try for a slam dunk.

The Trap was a move that was a second time out and fell shy of the 84-pip line.

The goal is to score beyond the yellow line (see the very first image), which I call the max effort zone. It is 84 pips from the 10-sample low/high with a 6-hour delay.

ExtUpperBuffer3[i]=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,10,i+6))+820*Point;
       ExtLowerBuffer3[i]=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,10,i+6))-820*Point;

A score is a non-habet, the move lives. The return to the front/back door is a buy.

The second out is what I was trying to bring to your attention.

I shaded the current house pink.

Whenever the price goes outside the house for the second time, you do not want to fade the move until the next thrust is printed.

Those tender moments.


The sound of MU is out.


My Depeche Mode / Dave Gahan style works (30).

Trading Is Real Time

All these dumb f*cks, with trading, is reactive and react, don’t predict. God forbid having a trading plan. Better yet, never even open a trade. I hate one-size-fits-all all people, even the monochrome meant more colors.

Trading should be event-based, and you should have flow charts about how the next events could /should play out.

Name the event.

Big Blast Thrust.

(The Brown Markers are the first “Established” levels and their back tests. The best entry locations by far.)

Find more of these. I have 1 recent example.

Because of the overt, excessive size (125+ pips), the next weak point would be a buy.

E=Escrow, A=Adjustment, T=Thrust

The crucial things are the back test / bow back. As the guy with the more than 190 reputation points calls it, the completion of the M pattern.

Realize how clean and unobstructed the move is to the escrow & adjustment low.

The next event is the whip-tail. 4 hours of a lift up before a one hour quick flush (thrust).

By the way, you are not gonna find true knowledge or deep understanding on YouTube. The default is the grifter-scammer. They always have something to sell you. Let it be a lifetime membership at 90% discount ot an indicator for.TradingView for $1500 a pop from Mr “Don’t Call Me A Scammer,” inside curviture-outside curviture guy who is clearly trading demos with max leverage to make you drool.

Remember Spongebob in front of the dryer asking, Do you want another spin? I’m buying!

So, think about this for a second, does the market ever turn around without making a thrust first?

The largest beat after a thrust caps out at about 18 pips. The Gray ones are meaningless by themselves; on the upside, 57 pips seems to be the minimum needed.

True knowledge is knowing what to look for, and the exercise to finding it is called filtering.

  ///Thrust up
   if (i>1 && iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && (iMFI(symbol,0,7,i+1)<92 ||   iMFI(symbol,0,7,i+5)>92)
   && ((((RSI2[i]<90 && RSI2[i]>20) || iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i)>93) && (High[i]-Low[i+1]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+2]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+3]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+4]>460*Point) )
   ||  ((High[i]>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,10,i+6))+820*Point || High[i+1]>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,10,i+7))+820*Point) && (RSI2[i]>97 || High[i]-iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,5,i))>450*Point)) 
   && Close[i]>High[i]-250*Point
   )


Lyrics of Croc Dundee's Dinner Date from the album Rocking Under

Croc Dundee, G' Day mate, you're on this track Outback where stories turn and never look back The moon will guide us, lighting up our way Where the wild meets the mild in this outback ballet Getting closer now, to the flickering flame The dinner date awaits, let's play this game [Pre-Chorus] A touch of excitement, a pinch of fate Underneath the skies, you illuminate So much to see, so much to share In this land of dreams, we'll truly declare Croc Dundee, G' Day mate, you just got scheduled a dinner date Outback Stake house, by the million stars hotel, if all goes well, all is well, if it's a flop, oh, well. What are you in the market in a Kangaroo-style market? What was your favorite stock again? (Microsoft?!) If there will be showing on the date? Would she be a 9 or a 10? React, don't predict. Come over here, come here a minute... I was only kidding, disappear! Snake jacket and crocodile hat, Tarantulla armpit goes just fine with that. Not much taste, but you can always put more pepper on the steak, Harry Cherry-popper. Everyone's ancestors were prison guards in this vast land.

Fractal Eval #2

A few things first for a framework.

You can divide the market in two categories based on daily volatility. Mapping is a high & expanding volatility market, whilst a low volatility market is usually a tracking market, going nowhere fast.

My proxy for the volatility is the width of the daily 30-sample BB (HL2), when below 380 pips, that’s the Tracking zone.

ExtATRBuffer[i]= (iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))*10000;

The tracking market is producing spike highs and lows and when finding nothing better to do, it retests these spikes (a re-test is a hit within 4 pips, and the timer starts 1 hour later). The yellow lines are being carried over asking for a test.

This lead-up is just for a smirk at an imbecile YouTuber, who is calling these missing backtests “imbalances.” What exactly is not in balance here?

The second thing to talk about is gauging strength.

This is my contribution here. 11-sample high and lows on the hourly displaced by 82 pips and delayed by 6 hours.

The Karma of the market is that strength becomes weakness, weakness becomes strength. This clearly explains “The Shape”.

ExtUpperBuffer3[i]=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,10,i+6))+820*Point;
       ExtLowerBuffer3[i]=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,10,i+6))-820*Point;

Now, the main course is that within the Tracking market, the boss thrusts tend to be 90 pips long. Let’s call them a blast, or “turning point” (life investment).

The sequence is Acceleration, Higher High – even if it was 1 pip, then the thrust that went outside the strength contraption.

This blast is virtually the mirror image of this one below.

The Lower Low was 11 pips out. 10-16 is the normal beat.

Make note that they both made a run for the opposite yellow and had virtually no counter moves on the first leg.

By the way, during the Mapping market, the Boss Blast is 169 pips measured from the consolidation mean.

Based on the earlier image, there would be a miss of the opposite yellow line next (perhaps with an Escrow, Adjustment high, and a Thrust sequence to underline the event).

If I had to guess, I would think the low would receive a back test (at least the previous one did, and made a 5-pips beat prior), but the same time, you have made 3 fractals already, so I think it is a matter of how we open that gets to decide over going back down first or not.



Witnessing history here:

The Thrust Finder algo.

Fractal Eval #1

I’m going to try to ease you into this one.

A terminal sequence can look like the picture above.

The green circle is the Escrow high, with the RSI2 printing in the last 3%.

The following, Adjustment high (orange) is expected to stay within 20 pips, and would see a pullback prior at a minimum 17 pips, but often 37, and can be as much as seventy-something.

The coda to the sequence is the Thrust. In the picture above, the move did not qualify to be called a Thrust based on my filters (46 pips within 4 hours), but it was an echo move nonetheless.

///Thrust up
High[i]-Low[i+1]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+2]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+3]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+4]>460*Point

2 more examples to start to get the hang of it

Escrow, adjustment, echo

That black doji I sometimes refer to as clutch, particularly if it is preceded by 3 candles of the opposite color.

The following sequence did come with a Thrust, and after the adjustment low the pullback was 35 pips.

This brings us up to real time. We have seen the Escrow, the Adjustment, and now the 3rd fractal is printing.


Album #71. Hitting 1100 songs soon on the Topic alone.



///V-top
 if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-100*Point && High[i]>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,11,i))+720*Point && RSI2[i]>96)

in English, the high would have to be at most 10 pips below the upper 30 sample BB, the high would have to be 72 pips higher than the 11-sample low, and the RSI2 reading was already discussed

Smoke And 1H Volume

I did not include the RSI2, but the candle before the one doing the back test of the cyan candle’s body was below 3 print.

The second example is a flip over. Note that the 100-delay 120 BB was where the price launched from, and after an RSI2 embedding, the last candle before the backtest (I’m talking the big black from the opposite direction) had an RSI2 above 97. A further lesson would be that an instant adjustment high was made, which is virtually a commitment for a breakout.

Two more backtests on the 3rd image. Note that the rectangle is a bit wider than the 1H candle’s body for a hit to be called.

Is this gonna flip? I think not. The BB displacement has been missed.

There was a drive to the downside. A Money flow acceleration (Orange Diagonal) and an LL print.

There can only be one of two things next. A Thrust that can get as long as 164 pips or another LL failure.


I made these 17 tracks yesterday. Most proud of the LL Cool J one, “I Flow Around”, Track 3.

Too Overbought

60 samp stochastic was at 97+ on that fractal.

A 2-fractal correction (64-97 pips) would make sense here before setting up the stochastic divergence.


Managed to ratchet things up a notch again with Album #69


What Is It About Me?

So, one analyst is pointing down 5-600 pips

another one says Dollar new lows (300 pips up per Euro)

Which is it then?

Do you see that cyan highlighted pro volume candle?

Carried out to the right are 2 numbers, the open and the close of that day.

1.1363 was tested in the last 3 days 5 times. The close on Friday was 1.13633, but the volume fell off a cliff and the inventory was 100% long at the end – I think they would regret it.

Either way, play it like this: watch the first 4 hours. If you get closes above 1.1363, go long. If not, start shorting on the close of the 4th hour, 2 AM GMT.


18 tracks on Album #68.

V-Top, V-Bottom

The confirmation of a V-top / V-bottom is the price making it to the other side of the E-9 within 9-10 hours.

 ///V-top
 if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,10,i))+820*Point  && RSI2[i]>96){
      
      ObjectCreate("Talmz"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+50*Point); 
      ObjectSetText("Talmz"+IntegerToString(i), "V-TOP?", 21, "Impact", Navy); 
 }

 ///V-bottom

 if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)+150*Point && Low[i]<iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,12,i))-820*Point && RSI2[i]<4){
      
      ObjectCreate("Talmz"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-60*Point); 
      ObjectSetText("Talmz"+IntegerToString(i), "V-BOTTOM?", 21, "Impact", Navy); 
 }

V-Top, V-Bottom
TGT1: E16
TGT2: STAIR-STEP BREAKOUT LEVEL
TGT3: THIN YELLOW LINE / 82 pips from the 12-sample high

E-16 HL2 in black

Downgrade

Where do you think they are gapping this to?

1: The trendline. 2: The Server (E-44) 3: The stronghold of the professional shorts. X: All of the above

How do you think the professionals (cyan highlights) would react?

1: Say thank you, I can put on a larger size at a discount. 2: Call Mommy, fold and run for the hills.

Something has changed; the downside would be cut short, but not here.

It is not the first time I had this idea about keeping in/out. The BB in the image is a 120-sample HL2 with a 100-hour delay. I think, this news flipped the game from keeping out to keeping in. 1.1050 I believe is the next point of call still.


Managed to collect enough images for album #66. #68 already has 40 minutes of new material.