There are two kinds of markets based on volatility. Tracking and mapping.
The tracking market fails to make a break at the yellow line, the mapping market manages to sustain it. You can see on the image a agents Map! print, which was a Tide (“t-“), but the draft would overwhelm the tide crash and keep on going 25+ pips later.
See the yellow line? The thrust did not make it beyond (thus I colored it purple – the downside version is trickier). The direction’s color changed, but there is an incubation period where a couple more higher highs could be printed.
Historical example:
There were 3 more legs up, two higher highs made, and the total distance put beyond the initial high was 18 pips. The total duration was 14 hours.
This market is in between configurations (outside from the 200-hour low and from the 200-hour high by more than 80 pips both), currently girating between the upper and the lower guard rails (within 1 fluctuation maximum from the 9-day EMA band).
A swing high is in the making.
This requires the week to close down by 91 pips after a new high was made during the prior week.
Wherever the new week opens, typically you would get a move back up before proceeding lower.
The move can be anywhere from 25 to 54 pips, but 51 seems to be a frequent answer. How do you short that? You go neutral if you are long at 25 pips from the low, and start adding shorts as it moves higher. Every 4, 5, 10 pips. You decide on a maximum size and divide it by 5. Or securing the bulk first.
I could picture a small gap down, mostly because of the spread expansion, but still missing or barely touching the back of the house (Gainsboro). Next move would be another failure at the front of the house (higher Gainsboro), but this time it could scrape/pierce the 80-pip brown line above. Just like on the downside (see cyan candle down) , that would make for an excellent point to fail at.
What do you know, that’s 50 pips up from last week’s pivot.
If there would be another “M”, miss at the back of the house, at the next visit on the way down, that would make for a good point to add to a short.
The move back up came from a deeply oversold condition, after a couple of false starts to the downside (the stochastic wasn’t ready to give much).
The holding up / peg was most likely an opex-optimized robbery.
Lastly, for all the Euro (&GBP) news, the bar is raised (making it easier to miss) and the Dollar news has discounted targets on Monday, nurturing a Dollar rally environment.
Tid means Time. Also, a way to shorten, Tide Turning.
The circled numbers are settled ones. They change at the top of the hour with a new settlement. The first number is the maximum distance achieved from the 10-sample low/high, and the second is the 200-sample one.
Volatility measurements that can help you figure out the point when the counter-directional volatility can no longer be compressed and it steps outside the trench.
I monitor for a 1:8 ratio on the upside and a 1:10 ratio on the downside. It is the start of a 3-point or even larger turn, so the low/high is by no means untouchable, but likely isn’t gonna get exceeded by much. 10 pips would be a lot already, 1-4 pips is typical. Only when the skew is steep would you not be able to match the low/high.
if (High[i+2]>iMA(symbol,0,32,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2) && ExtATRBuffer[i]<25 && ExtATRBuffer[i+1]<ExtATRBufferf[i+1]/8 && ExtATRBuffer[i]>ExtATRBufferf[i]/8)
if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]<22 && ExtATRBuffer2[i+1]<ExtATRBuffer2f[i+1]/10 && ExtATRBuffer2[i]>ExtATRBuffer2f[i]/10)
There are not a lot of market models that can keep you in the picture and on the right side during a Powell press conference. So, let’s see what happened in the house.
For the show a Leg2 ended in a tide turn.
Inside the house, there were 3 Failures of trying to leave at the front of the house, 2 misses at the back of the house and then you got a the first leg out. After that the market was either going to come back to the E-32 or fail to re-enter the house.
The first leg ultimately made it to the yellow, maximum effort line (professional volume appeared) and a tide turn printed.
What are we looking for? After Wave 1, the E-32 is behaving as a resistance. If this were to go out at the rear end of the house, you would have a 2nd leg that you should not be fading at least until you see a ride change.
No one really has the upper hand while inside the house. A failure or a miss by the front end may still be in the cards first, since a tide print hasn’t been made so far.
Overall, this is going lower, as there has not yet ben a thust on the downside, but this does not mean short at market.
Glossary.
if (ExtATRBuffer[0]>24 && ExtATRBuffer[0]<32 && ExtATRBuffer[1]<28 && ExtATRBuffer[2]<28) ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrYellow);
ObjectSetText("PENELOPED"+6,"Short Comp: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer[0],2),1)+" "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,10,0)],2),1),19,"Arial Black");
if (ExtATRBuffer[0]<(ExtATRBufferf[0]/8)) ObjectSet("PENELOPED"+6,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrMediumSpringGreen);
The main difference between an open top/bottom and a closed one is the thrust distance from the 6-hour low/high exceeding 84 pips. Those are the green and the red lines.
Open means that one or more higher highs / lower lows are of high likelihood.
If it does not say closed, it is open.
Now, a bit about the house where it all happens.
The house must be upright, meaning the 12-sample low plus 46 pips has to be above the 12-sample high minus 46 pips. In other instances, I dim the line.
F is a failure at or just outside the front or the back door.
32 is the 32 EMA. This is where they would step up with aggression to try for a slam dunk.
The Trap was a move that was a second time out and fell shy of the 84-pip line.
The goal is to score beyond the yellow line (see the very first image), which I call the max effort zone. It is 84 pips from the 10-sample low/high with a 6-hour delay.
All these dumb f*cks, with trading, is reactive and react, don’t predict. God forbid having a trading plan. Better yet, never even open a trade. I hate one-size-fits-all all people, even the monochrome meant more colors.
Trading should be event-based, and you should have flow charts about how the next events could /should play out.
Name the event.
Big Blast Thrust.
(The Brown Markers are the first “Established” levels and their back tests. The best entry locations by far.)
Find more of these. I have 1 recent example.
Because of the overt, excessive size (125+ pips), the next weak point would be a buy.
E=Escrow, A=Adjustment, T=Thrust
The crucial things are the back test / bow back. As the guy with the more than 190 reputation points calls it, the completion of the M pattern.
Realize how clean and unobstructed the move is to the escrow & adjustment low.
The next event is the whip-tail. 4 hours of a lift up before a one hour quick flush (thrust).
By the way, you are not gonna find true knowledge or deep understanding on YouTube. The default is the grifter-scammer. They always have something to sell you. Let it be a lifetime membership at 90% discount ot an indicator for.TradingView for $1500 a pop from Mr “Don’t Call Me A Scammer,” inside curviture-outside curviture guy who is clearly trading demos with max leverage to make you drool.
Remember Spongebob in front of the dryer asking, Do you want another spin? I’m buying!
So, think about this for a second, does the market ever turn around without making a thrust first?
The largest beat after a thrust caps out at about 18 pips. The Gray ones are meaningless by themselves; on the upside, 57 pips seems to be the minimum needed.
True knowledge is knowing what to look for, and the exercise to finding it is called filtering.
Lyrics of Croc Dundee's Dinner Date from the album Rocking Under
Croc Dundee, G' Day mate, you're on this track Outback where stories turn and never look back The moon will guide us, lighting up our way Where the wild meets the mild in this outback ballet Getting closer now, to the flickering flame The dinner date awaits, let's play this game [Pre-Chorus] A touch of excitement, a pinch of fate Underneath the skies, you illuminate So much to see, so much to share In this land of dreams, we'll truly declare Croc Dundee, G' Day mate, you just got scheduled a dinner date Outback Stake house, by the million stars hotel, if all goes well, all is well, if it's a flop, oh, well. What are you in the market in a Kangaroo-style market?What was your favorite stock again? (Microsoft?!) If there will be showing on the date? Would she be a 9 or a 10? React, don't predict. Come over here, come here a minute... I was only kidding, disappear! Snake jacket and crocodile hat, Tarantulla armpit goes just fine with that. Not much taste, but you can always put more pepper on the steak, Harry Cherry-popper. Everyone's ancestors were prison guards in this vast land.
You can divide the market in two categories based on daily volatility. Mapping is a high & expanding volatility market, whilst a low volatility market is usually a tracking market, going nowhere fast.
My proxy for the volatility is the width of the daily 30-sample BB (HL2), when below 380 pips, that’s the Tracking zone.
The tracking market is producing spike highs and lows and when finding nothing better to do, it retests these spikes (a re-test is a hit within 4 pips, and the timer starts 1 hour later). The yellow lines are being carried over asking for a test.
This lead-up is just for a smirk at an imbecile YouTuber, who is calling these missing backtests “imbalances.” What exactly is not in balance here?
The second thing to talk about is gauging strength.
This is my contribution here. 11-sample high and lows on the hourly displaced by 82 pips and delayed by 6 hours.
The Karma of the market is that strength becomes weakness, weakness becomes strength. This clearly explains “The Shape”.
Now, the main course is that within the Tracking market, the boss thrusts tend to be 90 pips long. Let’s call them a blast, or “turning point” (life investment).
The sequence is Acceleration, Higher High – even if it was 1 pip, then the thrust that went outside the strength contraption.
This blast is virtually the mirror image of this one below.
The Lower Low was 11 pips out. 10-16 is the normal beat.
Make note that they both made a run for the opposite yellow and had virtually no counter moves on the first leg.
By the way, during the Mapping market, the Boss Blast is 169 pips measured from the consolidation mean.
Based on the earlier image, there would be a miss of the opposite yellow line next (perhaps with an Escrow, Adjustment high, and a Thrust sequence to underline the event).
If I had to guess, I would think the low would receive a back test (at least the previous one did, and made a 5-pips beat prior), but the same time, you have made 3 fractals already, so I think it is a matter of how we open that gets to decide over going back down first or not.
A terminal sequence can look like the picture above.
The green circle is the Escrow high, with the RSI2 printing in the last 3%.
The following, Adjustment high (orange) is expected to stay within 20 pips, and would see a pullback prior at a minimum 17 pips, but often 37, and can be as much as seventy-something.
The coda to the sequence is the Thrust. In the picture above, the move did not qualify to be called a Thrust based on my filters (46 pips within 4 hours), but it was an echo move nonetheless.
///Thrust up
High[i]-Low[i+1]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+2]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+3]>460*Point || High[i]-Low[i+4]>460*Point
2 more examples to start to get the hang of it
Escrow, adjustment, echo
That black doji I sometimes refer to as clutch, particularly if it is preceded by 3 candles of the opposite color.
The following sequence did come with a Thrust, and after the adjustment low the pullback was 35 pips.
This brings us up to real time. We have seen the Escrow, the Adjustment, and now the 3rd fractal is printing.
Album #71. Hitting 1100 songs soon on the Topic alone.
///V-top
if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-100*Point && High[i]>iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,11,i))+720*Point && RSI2[i]>96)
in English, the high would have to be at most 10 pips below the upper 30 sample BB, the high would have to be 72 pips higher than the 11-sample low, and the RSI2 reading was already discussed
I did not include the RSI2, but the candle before the one doing the back test of the cyan candle’s body was below 3 print.
The second example is a flip over. Note that the 100-delay 120 BB was where the price launched from, and after an RSI2 embedding, the last candle before the backtest (I’m talking the big black from the opposite direction) had an RSI2 above 97. A further lesson would be that an instant adjustment high was made, which is virtually a commitment for a breakout.
Two more backtests on the 3rd image. Note that the rectangle is a bit wider than the 1H candle’s body for a hit to be called.
Is this gonna flip? I think not. The BB displacement has been missed.
There was a drive to the downside. A Money flow acceleration (Orange Diagonal) and an LL print.
There can only be one of two things next. A Thrust that can get as long as 164 pips or another LL failure.
I made these 17 tracks yesterday. Most proud of the LL Cool J one, “I Flow Around”, Track 3.
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