This front part is my first thoughts about the differences between the parabolic and anabolic markets, how to identify them, and what exits to look for.
The market type is determined by the initial speed burst (intake) and the presence or lack of a follow-up enthusiasm
The parabolic market is all about high volume dumps & double pumps Particularly interesting are the pro-candles outside the BB The primary exit is anywhere beyond a pro volume with a counter directional color The secondary exit is the 120BB This market is prone to cause capitulation(s)
The anabolic market is about divergences & taper A slow divergence to match and a quick taper for an extra 30 pips
You want to see the time gap between the switching off market speed prints, 10 hours at least between 25+ reads. An opening print is qualified with a 25+ read (15+ pips beyond the 30BB HL2).
This is a serious acceleration to the downside, which is at 51 already.
The Four Tops (Outside 3BBs Fractal) and the Loco In Acapulco (professionals dumping longs on that doji).
Now, watch my hand because I’m cheating. A capitulation comes with a major reversal, typically a 100-pip bounce. The driven thrusts can build on each other; see how the second one is outside the 30-BB from the get-go. I would target the lower BB with the shorts since the second thrust brought on a reversal.
But this is starting to look like a big bull flag.
There’s a squeeze. Both sides are within 70 pips of the 200-sample extreme. No upper hand here. One quick stab from either side and the other one gets left behind in the shed for a beating. I decided to stop shorting for now.
The yellow trendline does not even get touched anymore.
Maybe a quick dip lower first, to the green support zone, but can’t see much reward here.
The distance measured from the 200-hour low and the 200-hour high is plotted.
When both lines are outside the 93-pip line (purple) and they are both relatively close, the probability of a switch off becomes a possibility.
The odds favor the Fade, i.e. now that the longs have just escaped from the volaility compression zone, they are more likely to be put back into the woodshed (anywhere below the orange box).
1-3 stochastic bars are toxic. 3+ in a row is building up tolerance agaist poisioning.
Once the market has made a Push and an Echo (Palm, House suggesting a return home) the minimum target would be the weekly S1 – 1.0704, before perhaps continuing with the next leg up.
The RSI2 picture (Nick Rhodes) similarly would suggest a lower low first, although this one is less optimistic and says Buy 1.0719, the back to the 20 SMA part already has happened on Thursday and Friday.
The speed taper received a quick fake out, but I do not like that the move has ended on strength. A divergence seems to be missing, a lower low fractal without a stochastic bar print.
That said, there is some chance that they buy a higher low below the E-44 (cyan) for another higher high first.
Numero uno, I have invented a market speed indicator.
Remember when the market went berserk?
Well, the Wave 3 did not end util the initial stretch achieved was approached closely (plus the drop off of an extra 30 pips).
I use the 30BB HL2 and the numbers are pips. So, the 44 reading needed its pair at 42 to come about to show decreasing enthusiasm.
if (High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-50*Point) ExtATRBuffer[i]=(High[i]-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i))*10000;
if (Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)+50*Point) ExtATRBuffer2[i]=(iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)-Low[i])*10000;
So now I am looking for a 29-30 print to go with the 32 on the left.
This current up move tagged the yellow trendline yet again. It was a bigger up move, because you had 3 of the outside all 3 BB fractals (ovals).
The indicator on the bottom is a hijacked Supertramp, as I am fed up with everyone else’s stupid ideas about a trending market. My filter is the E-44 HL2, the big brother of the E-16 HL2.
if (Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,44,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)) TrendDoA[i] = 1;
if (Close[i]<iMA(symbol,0,44,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)) TrendDoB[i] = 1;
Five hours on one side and something may be up, a reversion may be afoot.
The 3rd thing is that this morning they bought the 3rd hour. See the yellow line on the close of the 3?
I have a ton more examples, and #3 has O, H, L, C readings, but the back tests seem to always immediately declare what the intentions are.
An expanding ABC cotrection with the LL being the typicsl 4 pips lower from the end of the acceleration (orange) right before the Thrust down commencing.
The B-C move is the price going from oversold to overbought
The LL is aldo a trip low, do you pretty much have 16 pips lower guaranteed. Of course there is way more at stake here. The market is staring into an abyss. There is no support line until 1.04. Of course, one could be made on the way.
Same ol’ trendline alll week long.
Professional average block size circled as they are leaning into the selling.
True understanding starts here.
Hourly candles.
A stand-out, 8H higher High/Lower Low with a wick on the wrong side of the E-16 is a Starter candle ( StarTrek is okay too).
The second working cadle has to make a new 8-sample Low/High by at least 2 pips. Otherwise the run isn’t a Racer; it is an Eraser.
A racer sequence will make a move outside the 30BB, as all exits can be found there. 20 pips out or Shy & Shy with a money flow divergence.
We may be printing a new STarter candle now with that long-cover wick.
The eraser move will tackle the swing low/high, sweep, and reverse.
Believe it or not, the decision to sustain the move is made in the first 3 hours.
Race Me To The Finish Line
Set the sails high, feeling alive Riding winds of fate, where the ocean dives Boathandling skill, working in unison Feel the thrill rise, as the race is begun [Pre-Chorus] Preparation's key, laying strategy Eyes on the horizon, where the sea meets the sky [Chorus] Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! Chase the victory, under clouds divine Race me to the finish line! [Verse 1] Riding on the waves, through the open sea Chasing down the current, feel the breeze set me free Oh, I'm steering fast, steering fast, steering fast, steering fast Sailing on, sailing on, sailing on, racing on [Chorus] Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! [Verse 2] Spinnakers flying, catching all the wind Every tack and jibe, perfect maneuvers begin Oh, I’m setting pace, setting pace, setting pace, setting pace Cutting through, cutting through, cutting through, racing true [Chorus] Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line! [Bridge] Sail trim tight, feel the speed Racing on, with skills I need Wind in my sails, driving me To the thrill of first victory [Chorus] Race me to the finish line! Race me to the finish line!
Sting is Racing Sailboats.
[Verse 1]
Sail on the horizon bluff and shifting tide
Feeling the wind's pull as our strategies collide
Preparation is the puzzle, fitting the pieces right
From tacks to buoy turns, all through the restless night
But isn't this the rush, the thrill we crave inside?
Each wave a whisper, every moment is our guide
[Chorus]
Racing sailboats, a chess in mind and sea
Where courage meets the elements, where we long to be
It's the speed and grace, in every twist and turn
Racing sailboats, endless lessons to learn
[Verse 2]
Boathandling finesse, in the dance of sail and sky
Adjusting sails with heartbeats, as the seconds fly by
It's about more than victory, more than just the prize
It's the pace and wheel, the look in your partner's eyes
Rig tuning sings a song, as the canvas billows high
In this silent symphony, we learn to soar and glide
[Chorus]
Racing sailboats, a chess in mind and sea
Where courage meets the elements, where we long to be
It's the speed and grace, in every twist and turn
Racing sailboats, endless lessons to learn
[Bridge]
Feel the spray upon the face, freedom in the air
In these salt-kissed moments, you find just who you are
It's the dance of challenge, the beauty of the dare
In the game of sailing, our compass is the star
[Chorus]
Racing sailboats, a chess in mind and sea
Where courage meets the elements, where we long to be
It's the speed and grace, in every twist and turn
Racing sailboats, endless lessons to learn
The suggested mean reversion to the S-356 (Hourly) S-712 (30-minute) has happened.
The down move looks to have an ABC, finished structure.
The A leg produced two blue support levels, the B leg two hourly fractals, and the C leg two blue support levels.
So all systems go to the upside?
Not so fast.
A high volume weekly churn has enough momentum to carry the price further for about 2 weeks. Then, a 2-week pullback before another run for up to 6 more weeks.
A swing high is made with a weekly close lower by 91+ pips. I circled this event. There is always a lift come next week, usually around 51 pips, but occasionally, it can be as low as 24 pips. I circled the qualifier weekly closes.
24 pips higher means 1.0836, 51 pips is 1.0863, and it is not impossible that the first move would be down.
All Euro news is with raised bars. Disappointment made easy.
Check how cleanly that hourly support low was made (dark blue) and was back tested along with pro volume coming in. Interestingly enough they may have already gone back in short.
Things could accelerate once the daily pro volume candle gets exceeded to the downside by 15 pips.
There is a long way down for the daily stochastic.
After a GLD print, a HEAD print would be logical, but I don’t know exactly until the market consolidates overnight taking the weight lower. Should that be here, you are looking at 1.0788-1.0770
There should be a catastrophic cover at the end of this decline, and the stochastic bars have not even started printing yet, let alone started diverging.
For now, the continuation entry should be a failure at the E-16: count 8 more candles after the down fractal, if no closes / not sustaining above the EMA, you should go in for the next leg.
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