The Dirt Pocket

Pockets, how deep do they get?

Communism. Rodolfo, the Hungarian illusionist is smuggling things through the custom by slipping them into the agent’s pockets for the tap down and stealing back them afterwards.

A primary Wave 2 takes the RSI2 from a Red to a Blue (or at least tries for 3 times) – in red.

Adolfo after putting things into the primary Wave 2 pocket and then with a primary Wave 4 returning to look at the scene of the crime from a close proximity. After walking off briefly if Dolfie changes his mind and decides to reach into the pocket, with the power of surprise, he can run off with a secondary wave count.

Interestingly, the secondary wave counts may come with the secondary Wave 3 becoming the furthest point and Wave 5 falling short of it, as the image ballustrates.

The brown bags are the dirt pockets. The secondary wave count ends in the Utmost condition. There is no tertiary wave count.

The dirt pockets can be 15-50 pips deep, but normally would cap out at 36. Of course you knew all this without my hilfe.

Gonna Get Drifted

Let’s switch to the Marketing Research department.

Would you like some marketing?

Some driftwood maybe? It’s a Tokyo drift!

First thing’s thirst: the wave structure.

After a prolonged Wave4 down, a Wave5 corrective up, swimming against momentum with a driven thrust.

The momentum has been down since the CAP print. Counter momentum moves cap out in the low two hundred-X’s.

Conclusion: an End Game can get receive a temporary stop with a reversal divergence, but only the utmost condition seals the deal air tight.

U, U and U Peter are the utmost ones.

You can bet on a higher high out of this Wave5, but I won’t be joining you on that one.

How can a corrective wave be made out of 5 sub waves?

There are two larger, increasing breaks in the counter movement volatility.

Gonna get drafted

Red, red line. Stay close to me.

This, 45 pips displacement of the E32 is the separation in the sky. The stratosphere beyond and the atmosphere within. Image shows returning into the atmosphere & having no escaping speed on the way up. Wave 1 & Wave 3 are the stage 1 & stage 2 making sure that Wave 5 would be light enough to reach escaping velocity.

Below the first yellow arrow shows where at the beginning of wave5 of Wave5 the price gets lifted into the stratosphere, then the ride along the Grollier band comes to an end at the second yellow arrow after two 30-min closes back inside.

1st leg landed on the E32 precisely.

Novum / stretch marker changes:

The bottom left 10-sample max distance from the EMO8 and the bracketed perceived resistance & support levels based on this data. “Volatility/couter volatility”


   if (High[i]-iMA(NULL,0,17,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)>rou) rou=High[i]-iMA(NULL,0,17,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i);
   if (iMA(NULL,0,17,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-Low[i]>rod) rod=iMA(NULL,0,17,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-Low[i];

  ObjectCreate("Libec"+4,OBJ_LABEL,indicator_window, 0,0);
   ObjectSetText("Libec"+4, DoubleToStr(rou*10000,2)+" ("+DoubleToStr(iMA(NULL,0,17,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)+rou,4)+")", 11, "Arial Black", DarkViolet);  
  if (rou>rod) ObjectSet("Libec"+4,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrDarkGreen);
  else if (rou<.0010) ObjectSet("Libec"+4,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray);
   else ObjectSet("Libec"+4,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrBlack);

  ObjectCreate("Libec"+5,OBJ_LABEL,indicator_window, 0,0);
   ObjectSetText("Libec"+5,DoubleToStr(rod*10000,2)+" ("+DoubleToStr(iMA(NULL,0,17,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-rod,4)+")", 11, "Arial Black", DarkViolet);  
  if (rod>rou) ObjectSet("Libec"+5,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrCrimson); 
  else if (rod<.0010) ObjectSet("Libec"+5,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray);
   else ObjectSet("Libec"+5,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrBlack);


The two digit distance in pips from the E-32 – bottom right.


int twodigits = NormalizeDouble(MathAbs(iMA(NULL,30,32*2,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-Close[0])*10000,0);

//string tds = IntegerToString(twodigits);

int tens = round(twodigits/10);

int ones = twodigits-tens*10; 

string stens, sones;


case  1:   stens=CharToStr(140);
case  2:   stens=CharToStr(141);
case  3:   stens=CharToStr(142);
case  4:   stens=CharToStr(143);
case  5:   stens=CharToStr(144);
case  6:   stens=CharToStr(145);
case  7:   stens=CharToStr(146);
case  8:   stens=CharToStr(147);
case  9:   stens=CharToStr(148);
  default: stens=CharToStr(139);

case  1:   sones=CharToStr(140);
case  2:   sones=CharToStr(141);
case  3:   sones=CharToStr(142);
case  4:   sones=CharToStr(143);
case  5:   sones=CharToStr(144);
case  6:   sones=CharToStr(145);
case  7:   sones=CharToStr(146);
case  8:   sones=CharToStr(147);
case  9:   sones=CharToStr(148);
  default: sones=CharToStr(139);

string jointstring=stens+sones;

//if (Close[0]>plus[0] && buy[1]) jointstring=jointstring+CharToStr(66);
//else if (Close[0]>plus[0] && sell[1]) jointstring=jointstring+CharToStr(73);

//if (Close[0]<minus[0] && sell[1]) jointstring=jointstring+CharToStr(66);
//else if (Close[0]<minus[0] && buy[1]) jointstring=jointstring+CharToStr(73);

  //    ObjectCreate("AverD", OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[16], 1); 

ObjectCreate("AverD",OBJ_LABEL,indicator_window, 0,0);

if (MathAbs(iMA(NULL,30,32*2,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-Close[0])*10000<45) ObjectSetText("AverD",jointstring,40,"Wingdings",Orange);
else if (Close[0]>iMA(NULL,30,32*2,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0))  ObjectSetText("AverD",jointstring,40,"Wingdings",Green);  
else ObjectSetText("AverD",jointstring,40,"Wingdings",Crimson);

End Game Theorem 3 simple steps.

Step:1 mark up the End Games

Step 2: understand how they end

Step 3: patent your franchise

The end game is a Wave5 continuum arising from the undercut of the last 2 4H pullbacks, like a phoenix.
Re-hedge upon 2 closes on the outside of the 8EMO after 3 inside closes.
The end game can peak at an utmost condition or a reversal divergence (98-94)  (2-10)
The end game can end for instance in a 98-94-X hourly divergence
Bet on this sequence happening and make the bet by adding on at every opposing 3rd leg, at every support (S1)

Back testing the other side of the E-67 band (Mr. Maroon) for a Wave 2. Next stop: mean reversion.

Bicycle Face

Give blood on Christmas Day.

I want to ride my popsicle, I want to ride it where I like.

Holiday spirit, options expiration.

Freeport MacMoron has a max pain at 94 – 200 pips drop from here.

What’s the holdup? Who knows. Perhaps there is more money to be had with an indices peg. Let’s take some lessons!

A new light for looking at Bollinger Bands as current volatility trend check points.

For instance, if price goes briefly outside the BB on a hourly fractal / tags it / falls just shy that means continuing volatility contraction.

In fact, many of these brief encounters never actually happened, only the reversal candle closed back deep enough to pull the BB closer for the settle.

This is why I don’t always target the Bollinger Bands, but when I do, I target 5 pips closer.

/////Short Target - Code 630 1H BB +5

if( OrderType()==OP_SELL && OrderStopLoss()==6.3 && OrderTakeProfit()!=iBands(symbol,60,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,0)+50*Point && OrderOpenPrice()>NormalizeDouble(iBands(symbol,60,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,0),4)+50*Point
     {  OrderModify(OrderTicket(), OrderOpenPrice(), OrderStopLoss(), iBands(symbol,60,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,0)+50*Point , OrderExpiration());
           Print("SHORT Target Set to 1H BB @ "+DoubleToStr(iBands(symbol,60,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,0)+50*Point,4));  }    

Next up: candles. I don’t talk much of these.

Look at this sequence. Colors, bodies shape. Could you have guessed what would happen next?

Look how the bodies shrink (bullish MA config), black becomes white, higher lows start to print, bodies and length are on the rise…

The pullbacks were: one black closing back up 50%+ and two blacks with body shrinking and dowside progression per hour decreasing.

Now these candles in pairs: what do they represent?

Buying, yes – short covering at the very least.

A black candle followed up with a smaller range & body black is a sell wrapping up.

A white candle followed by a larger body & span white is increasing buying activity.

We are back with the volatility topic, aha.

The End

End Game related thoughts.

The end game is taking place away from the E9 & the S20 daily.

Optimal conditions include more distance = less draw. Think of this break like getting into the stratosphere. No gravity until price re-enters the atmoshphere.

The Game is usually kick started by trapping.

In terms of wave structure, you must already have seen 2 large legs away from the E9, so it would be a Wave 5 by counts, but it is not at all likely to stop at a single leg.

In fact, you would see increasing length swings in the prevailing direction until a 100 pips+ hourly swing shows up. Volatility increasing = less order density – air pockets.

Then price would have to make it back to the hourly 8EMO and close at least twice below it.

Yet, the whole thing can be extended again if the 8EMO gets closed back over twice (see my Hedge Hammer blog entry).

Other tools that may help finding the right spot are the 4H RSI14 HL2 Bollinger Bands and the hourly 18-sample slow stoch: for instance if you get a 98+ print on the upside then you could capitalize on the knowledge that impulse waves don’t end on strength, and a higher high is missing with a lower stochastic reading for a reversal divergence at the new swing.

For a reset after this outre whack move, aim for the daily S30. Add to the fade every time the hourly 8EMO catches up with the price.

I drew the red line in the morning parallel with the white (5x) expecting that the thrust would fall shy of the line – it ended up touching it. The 8EMO is 18 sample on the 30-min. I found it to be more accurate when I was making the targeter.

Fractal evaluation: wave 5 of Wave 3 had 3 fractals, although 2 were not picked up by Billy W. Speed may be asynchronous with a given time frame, use your imagination, or go a frame lower.

Wave 5 printed 3 fractals.

Between w3 and w5 of Wave5 there was a PPI touchdown on the orange 8EMO. Interesting, not?

I would consider the separating line of the statosphere and the atmosphere to be 45 pips away from the Hourly E-32 HL2.

We may see a bow back within the first 14 hours following the thrust before the Wave 1 down.

I’m scaling back in with shorts up to the 8EMO or so.

In a nutshell for now.

Commuter Market?

This person called it.

He / she looked up the right blog entry.

This market has changed significantly.

The funny thing is that I even called the bottom within 14 pips (no, I’m not a frequent bottom caller).

We can all be in denial of the absence of dollar strength, but there is no other evidence than the settled candles.

The E-21 on the weekly was blown right through and would likely serve as support on a retracement at least for a bounce.

The commuter market in essence has 2 tarrgets: 50% of the range and the other end (Overbought in this case).

E-59 is the limit of this bear market, would coincide with the 50% marker in a couple of weeks. 3 closes above the E-59 and the bear market flips to a bull.

One trick that can give you an oscillator’s new print for the next week is to cut back one on the sample size (does not always work).

If I bring the sample size down to 17, the stochastic comes in at 64. Still not overbought.

The 40% level in combination with the E-34 should prove to be a challenge on the first run.

So let’s look at the levels. 50% is at 1.0572

Possible resistance levels on the way up:

The Daily has come into a swing low and is overbought. May see a relief back to the 1.022x region.

Since price is no longer oppressed by stochastic embedding, the 9-day run up sequence cap out does not apply.

Some more level ideas are in the NBE boxa above for a 90-pip, 130 and 170-pip pull back.

A full mean reversion is kind of out of reach in one leg at 1.0030

What could provide support at least for a bounce is the 3x stretch on the way down @ 1.0143 instead before a leg up in combination with the E-21 at 1.01+. With a short I would target the hourly 30-sample BB low (& trail). This may come together with the upper guard rail somewhere above 1.006. I would not have hopes beyond these numbers on the downside currently.

I have certainly underestimated what the CTAs can do when they all are buying in an accord. Looks like Europe decided to export back some inflation to the US for Christmas.

Hedge Hammer

One person’s risk off is another one’s risk on.

It is the fist go at isolating the Hedge condition for an auto hedger.

You know, I may be working, offline or sleeping or mere 5 months away from a bank clerk being able to remove a temporary block that nobody asked for from my credit card.

It is amazing how many things I have already coded, finding treasurus on every shelf.

Old code, so I went with the old lingo. NULL and DoubleToStr(i) instead of IntegeToString(i), just out of nostalgia.

    if (Close[i]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i) && Close[i+1]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+1)+130*Point && Close[i+1]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+1) && Close[i+2]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2) && Close[i+3]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+3) && Close[i+4]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+4) && iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i) >iMA(NULL,0,32,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)+80*Point && stoch60[i]>65 && iMA(NULL,0,89,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) > iMA(NULL,0,207,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) ){
            ObjectCreate("Titee"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Close[i]+120*Point); 
                  ObjectSetText("Titee"+DoubleToStr(i), "H", 42, "Arial Black", Green); 
            if (Close[i]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i) && Close[i+1]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+1)-130*Point && Close[i+1]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+1) && Close[i+2]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+2) && Close[i+3]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+3) && Close[i+4]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+4) && Close[i+5]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i+5) && iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i) <iMA(NULL,0,32,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-50*Point && stoch60[i+1]<30 && stoch60[i]>20 && iMA(NULL,0,89,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) < iMA(NULL,0,207,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4)){
            ObjectCreate("Titee"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Close[i]+50*Point); 
                  ObjectSetText("Titee"+DoubleToStr(i), "H", 42, "Arial Black", Crimson); 

I know you just love this background color. I’ve gotta think hard about a good definition for the end game. Courting the 30-sample 4-hour seems a bit lousy and lewd and the 8EMO closes can be reversed – see this very page.

Sucker DJ

When does a trick become the theme? When does it become old?

3 times in a row?

Spike Force Cobra


Two pullbacks followed by an undercut spike – surprise Cockfags! – Motoring on till the utmost condition.


Two pullbacks followed by an undercut spike – surprise Cockfags! – Motoring on till the utmost condition.

…and now for something not completely different.


Two pullbacks followed by an undercut spike – surprise Cockfags! – Motoring on till the utmost condition?

There’s nothing organic about this rally. Do not root for it, as this volatility would end up cutting in both directions. 6.8x stretch makes me afraid about what this would do on the downside next. 10x, 11x maybe even more.


This was a Wave 5 from hell.


As it turns out, a 200+ pip day which is more than 2x the statistical ATR is on the level. Overrides everything, including momentum at once.

R2 was reached and so was the ATR target.

Coming back after only 2 houtly closes above sounds like a failure, yea that’s another long body, but now the volume that went has come back out. CAPsize would have the last word. There is also a divergence between the initial 300 versus the current 260.

The 6.5x stretch ftom the mean on the upside beats the largest in recent history that was 5.9

There’s a Lema just above. Could this reach it? I’d say at low odds. Once the 5x white line is lost, this would not be able to get back up above again.

The downside stetch with this volatility on the roll could perform a 10x next.

A bottoming process should look like a dog with a bone in its mouth waving it left and right. This was left.

Final score: 6.8x stretch, No Break Extension move printed the same day

Live Fade

– Can you perform under pressure?

– No, but I can try Bohemian Rhapsody.

Let’s talk interaction condition.


When the (stochastic) spread is wide &

RSI is outside (its Bollingers)

Then you can fade at R1 / S1 for a good 64 pips one time. Freddy or not.

Stochastic spread is between a 60-sample Stoch K and an 18-sample.

Hourly chart, always.

I have shared the code for calculating an S1 (see Quadruple Snitching in the Blog).

Questions? Fragen? вопросы? Pregnutas?

(My Math / Programming teacher used to finish like that.)