1234-TRENDING

Those people drawing trend lines and Fibonacci retracements, would never figure out what the market is about.


Do they have a clue why they were stopped out? Do they know what trending / emedding means? I doubt it.

I already mentioned about embedding in my previous article, so let’s talk about:

Trending is not measured by oscillators. Trending is embedding, and so it is measured by time.

What you see on my _RSI2_Spin indicator below, in the middle block, the small squares are the positive / negative readings, and their color is immaterial if it comes to trending, its their presence that counts.

if (Open[i+3]>plus[i+3] && Open[i+2]>plus[i+2] && Open[i+1]>plus[i+1] && buy[i+1]!=EMPTY_VALUE) positive[i]=50;
if (Open[i+3]>plus[i+3] && Open[i+2]>plus[i+2] && Open[i+1]>plus[i+1] && sell[i+1]!=EMPTY_VALUE) negative[i]=50;
if (High[i+1]>plus[i+1] && High[i]<plus[i]) {positive[i]=EMPTY_VALUE; negative[i]=EMPTY_VALUE;}
       
if (Open[i+3]<minus[i+3] && Open[i+2]<minus[i+2] && Open[i+1]<minus[i+1] && sell[i+1]!=EMPTY_VALUE) negative[i]=50;
if (Open[i+3]<minus[i+3] && Open[i+2]<minus[i+2] && Open[i+1]<minus[i+1] && buy[i+1]!=EMPTY_VALUE) positive[i]=50;
if (Low[i+1]<minus[i+1] && Low[i]>minus[i]) {negative[i]=EMPTY_VALUE; positive[i]=EMPTY_VALUE;}   

Plus and minus are the local overbought/oversold levels based on the last fractal +/- displacement, and the Buy/Sell filters are the stochastic current’s two polarities.

This is your answer to what trending is. Trending is not something you hook an oscillator on, and has degrees, it merely is on or off. After 4 of those squares printed we talk about embedding/trending.

The answer to why was this buying successful in the face of the Long Term embedded oversold condition, is the persistent buying that has brought on its local counter trend.

The one tooth missing is normally called “saving” that results in re-embedding. This does not apply for the current example, the one blank was merely signaling an open below and a close above the oversold neckline.

The answer to when it is going to fizzle off, is that the market has two speeds, 2H 45 minutes for slow, and 1H 45 minutes for fast. What is still missing from that chart is a 3-4 candle long burn off of the excess.

You have the upper guard rail straight ahead (green) as well as a market maker level @ 1.1425. The top of the lower reversal zone (15% – gray vertical shading) can also make things difficult for a bit at 1.1416.

In slow motion:

The orange S1 and S2 were not followed by any more Synchronized lows. The number “9” print made by my 88 luftballons routine was giving a warning sign for a possible counter trend starting.

The embedding kicked in, and subsequently the white S1 & S2 prints adjusted the overbought level.

The rest would come in the shape of a book.