The Bid In The Market

Someone seems to be overly convinced about the dollar going to zero, thus keep on buying utilizing the current overbought safety.

The first deep pullback was a mean reversion. It made it to the Green River Killer. The Green River can stop a move, any move.

The market eeked out a higher high, but barely and at 4x stretch from the mean.

The next mean reversion went through the mean and achieved approximately the average of the two mean reversion calls: (1.1664+1.1748)/2 = 1.1706

This time the area of interest was the lower guard rail (and a bit beyond), which is 1x stretch from the mean.

The rally stalled at 2x stretch from the mean making a lower high print. The lower high and the higher low points towards a squeeze happening, i.e. a pennant / triangle.

The most recent buy entry was a no-brainer again in the shape of the Green River. Now, there is a stall at the Upper Guard Rail. Why?

What happens if we already saw the failed break of the triangle at 70% into its length, and if we move the upper line lower to get the inner vector?

Then this is the perfect entry to go short – at least to the overbought neckline -> 1.1687

Just sayin’

Back test of the last consolidation level, the trendline and the last bearish engulfing candle