Driven Thrusts Reprise

I have tempered with the subject before, i.e. in my e-book that was released in March, 2019, but never before on a 1H chart.

I had made great progress indentifying certain features, see a blog entry somewhere under the title of Driven Thrusts & Lackluster Busts, I managed to distinguish between a screw driver and a drive/ double drive, thus things are starting to fall in place rapidly: the previous passes on 30 min RSI2s are of great help with starting out not from scratch on this time frame.

First some snapshots of Thrusts and Failures (busts).

Now my attempt for laying down the foundations.

Definitions:

What is a Thrust? It is a 14-sample new low/high with no beat on the next hour and was preceded by a drive within the last 16 hours (and there was no thrust 3 or 4 hours ago.)

The Drive is at least 3 hours worth of potent selling/buying.

Failures may be different kinds, i.e. there was a Thrust not long ago, there was no drive within the allotted sample size.

So let’s see a real life example of monitoring for a failure. On the image at the start of this article the F did not have potent selling/drive within the last 14 bars. When the F got printed and price got back above the last T terminal, that was your buy signal to go long for a driven thrust on the upside.

The chain of T-s followed by the “no more selling” signal marked the end of a Wave 1, since this was an impulsive looking structure.

Wave 2 clues – if you have been following my works – include a move back through at least the closer end of Mr. Maroon and 9-sample Stochastic D going back into overbought.

I did what every EUR/USD resident should do upon a realization and tolled the bells.

This is where we currently are at. The pink/magenta circles are the Maroon fake-outs (they come standard with the LEMA30N).

The white circles are highlighting the idea that the overdrive line may actually exist.

The yellow circle highlights the reaction from the 89-eyed Iguana (a squaring move), the next encounter was a let go, so the third one should be a spike.

I decided on ND standing for No Drive and the FCB standing for Failed To Close Below.

The drive signal I have yet to figure.

Wave 3 is showing the first thrust. We have gotten quite close to the daily fuel limit with the low at 1.1753.

The one other thing I wanted to mention is that the top was made with a double driven thrust (so picture a double sized T at the end):

There was an extension fill along the way, but a new projected distance target was also generated by this Wave 3 down.

Go figure, 1.17 coincides with the overbought neckline. I think that’s a target.

And the oversold level of 1.1748 is going to let price go on the second knock, believe you me.

for (i = 330 ; i >= 0; i--) {     
      if (i>0 && Low[i]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0, MODE_LOW,14,i+1)) && Low[i-1]>Low[i]){
         j=i+2;
         while (j<i+14){
            if (RSI2[j]<18 && RSI2[j+1]<18 && RSI2[j+2]<19) break;
            j++;
         }
       if (j<i+14 && Close[i]<Open[i+1] && !tdown[i+3] && !tdown[i+4] ){
          ObjectCreate("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-20*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), "T", 22, "Impact", FireBrick);  
          tdown[i]=true;
       
       }  
              else  if (i>0 && j==i+14 && Low[i]<Low[i+1] && !(RSI2[i]<18 && RSI2[i+1]<18)) {
          ObjectCreate("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-20*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), "ND", 22, "Impact", Yellow);  
       }
       
       
       else if (i>0 && j<i+14 && Low[i]<Low[i+1]){
          ObjectCreate("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]-20*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), "FCB", 22, "Impact", Navy);  
       }
      
 
      
      }
      
      if (i>0 && High[i]>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0, MODE_HIGH,14,i+1)) && High[i-1]<High[i]){
         j=i+2;
         while (j<i+14){
            if (RSI2[j]>82 && RSI2[j+1]>82 && RSI2[j+2]>75) break;
            j++;
         }
       if (j<i+14 && !tup[i+3] && !tup[i+4] ){
          ObjectCreate("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+90*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), "T", 22, "Impact", Navy);  
          tup[i]=true; 
       }  
       
              else if (i>0 && j==i+14 && High[i]>High[i+1] && !(RSI2[i]>82 && RSI2[i+1]>82)) {
          ObjectCreate("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],  High[i]+90*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), "ND", 22, "Impact", Yellow);  
       }
       
        else if (i>0 && j<i+14 && High[i]>High[i+1] && Close[i]<Open[i+1]){
          ObjectCreate("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],  High[i]+90*Point); 
          ObjectSetText("TEE"+DoubleToStr(i), "FCA", 22, "Impact", FireBrick);  
       }
 
      
      }
      
   
}

Homework:

What comes next?

Coming along nicely…

remember, that a Drive is a thrust at the same time, but the Thrust has a time constraint, thus it can show a winding down

As a farewell, a riddle to think about: how can the oversold level be above the overbought?

E96 let go - buy Green River - buy Mr. Maroon - 2x stretch reaction (sell) 
	- buy Mr. Maroon  - 3x stretch reaction (3x) 

	buy fresh out of overbought 4x -> target 100% 
	- 1st miss: buy fresh oversold - target 100%
	- 2nd miss: buy fresh out of overbought - target 100%
	100% beaten 3 times ->
	easing back to just out of overbought -> buy 3x 
	100% beaten 2 times, missed 1 time -> it is over with

sell miss of 100% -> target 0% 
	-> 3 fresh oversold touches with 2 reactions back to overbought 
	-> a final miss of the 0 - it's over with

buy miss of 0%	-> reaction from fresh out of oversold 
	-> buy Green River
	-> add fresh oversold 2x
	-> 100% hit 2x, 1x miss

sell miss of 100%
	-> add on fresh out of oversold
	-> 0% miss gets beaten by 44 pips

buy the beat of 0% miss 
	-> add on Green River -> target 100%
	-> 100% miss: it's over with
	
sell miss of 100% 
	-> 0% hit 
	-> reaction from 28 pips beat of 0% hit
	-> sell fresh out of oversold
	-> 0% beat 2x