Chartistry – Weekly Analysis

Moving averages:

21 EMA – the RESET – white

34 EMA – the TREND – khaki

59 EMA – the outer limit – violet

Window Envelopes set to 2 STD deviations

Stoch 1: 18,3,3 – CLOSE/CLOSE Simple

(Stoch 2: 12,3,5 – CLOSE/CLOSE Smoothed – version of Ira Epstein)

The quarter lines will get adjusted on the Sunday night open, but the numbers are calculated as such:

The weekly range was 72.1 pips.

15% = 10.82 pips

50% = 36.05 pips

Therefore the sell zone would start at 1.77664 and end at 1.17916 (no shorting beyond)

The buy zone would start at 1.16727 and end at 1.16475 (no longing beyond)

Disregard the numbers for the current week, but remember the side advice:

(The Smiley faces are counting 3 weekly closes above / below the E-55 after two closes on the other side first.)
    ////3 closes above E-55
              if (Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_LOW,i) && Close[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_LOW,i+1) && Close[i+2]>iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_LOW,i+2) && Low[i+3]<iMA(symbol,0,59,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+3)  && Close[i+4]<iMA(symbol,0,59,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_HIGH,i+4)  ){
         ObjectCreate("TitusTFxx"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Close[i+1]+270*Point); 
            ObjectSetText("TitusTFxx"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(74), 39, "Wingdings", clrDarkGreen);
            }  
      
      
            ////3 closes below E-55
              if (Close[i]<iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i) && Close[i+1]<iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1) && Close[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2) && High[i+3]>iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+3)   && Close[i+4]>iMA(symbol,0,55,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4)    ){
         ObjectCreate("TitusTFxx"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Close[i+1]+290*Point); 
            ObjectSetText("TitusTFxx"+DoubleToStr(i), CharToStr(74), 39, "Wingdings", clrFireBrick);
            }  

The area between the E-34 and the E-59 is a good trend following entry with the configuartion being stacked right.

Target the Window Envelope.

But two closes on the wrong side of the E-59 may be the start of a total directional change… after embedding and the total re-configuration of the EMAs – that is.

What does sell only ST18D>30 is that you don’t want to be selling an oversold market. 18D is the delayed/smoothed 18-sample base stochastic line. In fact, the only good weekly short entries have been outside the +50% range (not promoted) that got no follow through the next week – they worked only because the 21 EMA along with the Embedded oversold condition was backing them up.

Is this a seller’s market?

The configuration of the EMAs has been bullish until 2 weeks ago when the 21 crossed below the 34.

Within the window envelope and the 21 EMA the risk reward currently is almost neutral, close to 1:1 – bands & EMA will be sliding flat to lower presumably.

Losing the oversold status (20% in blue at Comfort Levels) would open up the possibility for a run to the 50% marker and possibly the other end of the range as well.

The lower reversal zone is the 15%-5% range.

On the way up, difficulties may arise around all 3 EMAs & two weekly trendlines. Fau Wee is providing the RSI lines in this case, the limit line was hand drawn.

Further stumbling blocks would be the relevant 4-hour fractals and the volatility caps that would shape the wave structure.

The inverse head and shoulders that was printed on Friday isn’t visible from this birds eye view,

but the 65 pips addition to the neckline would put price next to the upper overdrive band.

Sauerkr out.

After some thinking I changed the NO SHORTING BEYOND to DOUBLE SELL whilst the Embedding condition is on and the E-21 isn’t violated badly. I also preferred my 18-sample stoch K above Ira Epstein’s 12-sample Close stoch K & D smoothed. I don’t ever seem to go with the factory settings.

 if (iStochastic(symbol,0,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,1,MODE_MAIN,i+1)<27 && iStochastic(symbol,0,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,1,MODE_MAIN,i)>27){
       ObjectCreate("Claim"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i], 44); 
                      ObjectSetText("Claim"+DoubleToStr(i), "!", 48, "Impact", clrGreen);
                      ObjectSet("Claim"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJPROP_BACK,0);
                      ObjectCreate("Claims"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 1, Time[i], 40); 
                      ObjectSetText("Claims"+DoubleToStr(i), "!", 42, "Impact", clrYellow);
                      ObjectSet("Claims"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJPROP_BACK,0);
                       }ObjectCreate("Quarter__", OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[0], AxelHU[0]+.0002); 
if (iStochastic(symbol,0,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,1,MODE_MAIN,2)<30 && iStochastic(symbol,0,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,1,MODE_MAIN,1)<30 && iStochastic(symbol,0,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,1,MODE_MAIN,0)<30 && Close[0]<iMA(symbol,0,21,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,0)+200*Point) 
ObjectSetText("Quarter__", "  DOUBLE SELL         "+DoubleToString(NormalizeDouble(AxelHU[0],4),4), 12, "Impact", clrCrimson);
                     else ObjectSetText("Quarter__", "  NO SHORTING BEYOND         "+DoubleToString(NormalizeDouble(AxelHU[0],4),4), 12, "Impact", clrGreen);

Embedding simply means 3 consecutive weekly closes on the stochastic in the oversold or overbought field.