What the heck was that?
Let’s see what we know.
There was a rising wedge up with E89 providing the lower border.
The Drive (“0”) was ultimately followed by a Thrust. It went 72 pips below the 5-sample high which would mean a deep correction (for exceeding 62 pips) if the market was going up. But it wasn’t. It was putting in the finish for the Wave 4 down.
What about Wave 5 then? Is it over? Can’t say for certain, but there is more time left. If this closes back below the high of Wave 3 (currently below by 10 pips), then in terms of the purpose of making a beat beyond the high was met (10 pips here as well).
I think there should be a hourly doji printed sometime later tonight and there may be a reach for the high again afterwards, but that may be lackluster.
There are a number of problems here.
Today’s outside day is not an outside reversal up, since yesterday was a green candle. The rise in volatility at the same time hints a reversal transpiring.
Today’s sell off did not manage to prevent the Stochastic embedding. In fact, I was looking at them at the lows and never saw a print below 79.50 (K line).
The other problem with the reversal up is that the SuperTramp got reset by the violent up and down moves.
The Volume sequence starts with a strong selling, then professional buying, then an autction getting cut short by no more bets.
The most interesting clue about future prospects here is the God awful closeness of the Green River. The quick dip at the end of the Wave 4 was an actual mean reversion. The way I see this closeness is that another outside day tomorrow would price back below the mean.
I think the increased volatility is Dollar Bullish. I have no longs.