The Cost of No Opportunity #1

The difficulty of trading is that you don’t know how much knowledge is there to be had about the rules of the game and so you always seem to think that you already know enough, but you never do.

4 months ago I had no clear definitions for market type, I had not come up with a round enough interpretation of how the weekly quarter lines can provide hints, a few months ago I did not have a concept for Cover days, what preceeds a capitulation and until just yesterday I could not have provided good enough information about what makes a daily low/high a terminal one.

When you don’t know what to be looking for you are bound to be lost, bound to lose.

My one line code for trading goes like this: know the rules of the game!

This journey is paved with disproved thesis.

The latest one I’m waiting for the answer to is about momentum divergences between different wave structures. Namely can the intra wave structure divergence idea be used in the same manner for inter waves?

What I mean is this: during this bear market that was invoked by 3 closes below the 59-week EMA, we have seen two kinds of lows. Both had strength transpired to the downside, but one of them conformed with the too much love strength would kill you idea by going way below 4.9 on the Stochastic and therefore it had to get the depth right first wirh a reversal divergence.

The inter-wave dilemma goes like this: do you need another print below 4.9 or a good scare on this number in combination with the prior last leg printing a qualifier run should be enough?

The implications may be profoundly different: is this Wave prints a too strong low (a principle well known by me on the hourly thanks to my Zero-Mastodon RSI2 adventures) then this would only be finishing the Measuring leg to the downside in the coming days versus today may be a low before a return to God or at least his gate keeper, Murena.

Either way, no solid commitments should be made today.

The gazillion dollar question: is a sub 8 print the awaited divergence or a sub 4.5 but not much below is to be scored first? This being a weekend, the risk is a gap down, why, it has to be. The jump scare is in your your short term memory: last week’s 130+ pips gap down. How about a gap up then? Gentlemen, make your bets please!


Sorry for having no better images / source snapshot only, but I am at work & wanted to get this out today.

The 67 momentum is diverging grearly, 18-samp stoch is in the 7-s.

Ladies & Gentlemen, I know what you want…