Developments

Can’t get a better zoom, but here’s the deal.

If today closes down from whichever high would be final, this day would have a CAP print on it, as in CAPSIZE attempt.

Let’s talk NBEs first.

A No Break Extension is relative to the consolidation weight. It means that the price aka investment vehicle can move about on a station (middle is the purple arrow / line) about 46 pips in case of the EUR/USD without printing a valid break out (leeway).

The weight is calculated with a Choppiness Print going above 53 on the 15-min timeframe with 48 samples.

This finds the first such 15-min candle. The weight would be the half point.

 i=0;
   while (i<200){
      if (ChoppinessIndex(12*4,i)>53 && ChoppinessIndex(12*4,i+1)<53) break;
   i++;

Second, let’s mention about the Railroad Tracks.

The railroad tracks are brought on by the lack of remaining energy and the need for the quickest possible consolidation on the fly to eek out a final push. I’m pretty sure there is a blog entry about this somewhere by the title of Railroad T-Rex or something. Knowing myself I always must put a twist on everything.

The coming correction would take price at the most bullish of scenarios to beyond the 40, but shy of 50% retracement area.

To anticipate the end of the pullback, you would be looking for an impulse bottom with an RSI2 divergence, but pay also attention to the 60-sample hourly stochastics. The correction would likely take the price oversold twice.

The image shows 2 hook backs of the main line.

Now, let’s not forget about the embedding part.

Unfortunately, at the moment the 60-sample stoch is embedded to the upside. This means 10+ hours of overbought condition of the signal line.

if (i<20 && (iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+9)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+8)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+7)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+6)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+5)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+4)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+3)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+2)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+1)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i)<180 && iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i)<20) 
|| (iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+9)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+8)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+7)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+6)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+5)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+4)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+3)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+2)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+1)+iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i)>880 && iStochastic(symbol,60,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i)>80)){

The daily stochastic is also embedded to the upside.

if ((iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)>76 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,0)>76 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,1)>76 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,1)>76 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,2)>76 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,2)>76 )
|| (iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,0)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,0)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,1)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,1)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,2)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,1440,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,2)<24 )){

& at the same time the Weekly Stochastic is embedded to the downside, close to losing this with the coming weekly print.

if (iStochastic(symbol,10080,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+2)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,10080,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i+1)<24 && iStochastic(symbol,10080,18,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_SIGNAL,i)<24 ){

…and further complication is that the long term oversold level is at 1.0732 – the blue bob with the 20% label before it.

& price is a stone throw away from printing a God Day one. If this falls back, but not too far away (similar to the drop that was about 110 pips earlier) and comes back, this would mean a major break out having tested the oversold neckline twice. The biggest moves occur from leaving the long term oversold / overbought condition, i.e. the first target would be the 50% line, the second is the other side of the range (opposing 20% neckline).

One last piece of evidence is for the Bears, and this is the head and shoulders being drawn from the 9-day EMA. See the sequence below of 3.9x, 4.5x and 3x for LHR.

Bye now.