The -100 Program

#3 Skeleton: the score.

The score is calculated from the Bias and the last Capsize.

The bias is the relationship to the daily 20 SMA and the 20 SMA of the 44 EMA.

Closing above the S20 scores +25 whilst below is -25.

Closing 3 consecutive times above the E44 is +25, 3x below is -25. The score is zero if the prevailing positive/negative sequence gets broken.

      ObjectCreate("Grinder42", OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[0], iMA(symbol,0,20,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_CLOSE,0)+95*Point);  
       if (Close[0]>iMA(symbol,0,20,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_CLOSE,0)) ObjectSetText("Grinder42", "        BIAS", 17, "Arial Black", Green);
      else ObjectSetText("Grinder42", "        BIAS", 17, "Arial Black", Crimson);   
for (i=0; i<100; i++){  
      for (j=i; j<i+20; j++) 
      ExtMovingBuffer[i]=ExtMovingBuffer[i]+E44[j];
       ExtMovingBuffer[i]=ExtMovingBuffer[i]/20;
} 
...
if (Close[i+2]>ExtMovingBuffer[i+2] && Close[i+1]>ExtMovingBuffer[i+1] && Close[i]>ExtMovingBuffer[i]) {E44N[i]=EMPTY_VALUE;  E44P[i]=E44[i];}
   else if (Close[i+2]<ExtMovingBuffer[i+2] && Close[i+1]<ExtMovingBuffer[i+1] && Close[i]<ExtMovingBuffer[i]) {E44N[i]=E44[i]; E44P[i]=EMPTY_VALUE;}
...

 ObjectCreate("Grinder2", OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[0], E44[0]+35*Point);  
       if (E44N[0]==EMPTY_VALUE) ObjectSetText("Grinder2", "              SERVER", 17, "Arial Black", Chartreuse);
      else ObjectSetText("Grinder2", "              SERVER", 17, "Arial Black", Crimson);   

I have given you the CAPsize expression for the downside here a number of times, so with descriptive langue instead: it is a 4-sample lower low that closes back up by at least 27 pips with a settled 18-sample HL2 stochastic K reading greater than 4.4 and less than 9. A CAP print comes with a moratorium of an additional 30 pips. If a green CAP on the downside gets violated beyond the moratorium, the +50 reading would get flipped back down to -50.

With me so far?

So what would a program for the -100 reading look like in this Bare market that started in Aug, 2021?

Let’s fire up the observatory and make some observations.

Price can bounce if it spikes below the Bollinger Band and closes back above it (green Cs), but typically does not get further than the 20 SMA or perhaps would be chocked by the 9EMA (HL2) in red.

So far we have not seen a simple leg that did not end in a CAP condition outlined above.

The C-77 and other numbered c-s merely try to give an idea for the size of the bounce anticipated.

This green C wasn’t even enough to reach either MAs, but the bounce itself was almost 170 pips.

The recurring CB numbers I monitor for are 90, 130 and 170 pips.

It is noteworthy that the professional activities (cyan) seem to be in the direction of the -100, not against it.

THE -100 PROGGY

  • close all longs that are in gains
  • do not open any longs until right before the close when it is obvious that the market is closing back up from the daily low by 27 pips and has a daily stochastic reading between 4.4 and 9 or there was a Bollinger Band piercing and price is about the settle back inside – use trail stop
  • be net short
  • do not set targets or stops for your shorts
  • cover shorts right before the close if the requirements are satisfactory – see the two conditions mentioned under the second bullet point
  • consider re shorting in doses at 90, 130, 170 pips from the last swing low – rinse and repeat until you see the CAP print that immediately neutralizes the market: minus 50 (bias) plus 50 (for the CapSize) equals 0

…in the long term oversold on the Hourly Comfort Levels

Psar hit.

WordPress says this was my 500th blog post with them.