This person called it.
He / she looked up the right blog entry.
This market has changed significantly.
The funny thing is that I even called the bottom within 14 pips (no, I’m not a frequent bottom caller).
We can all be in denial of the absence of dollar strength, but there is no other evidence than the settled candles.
The E-21 on the weekly was blown right through and would likely serve as support on a retracement at least for a bounce.
The commuter market in essence has 2 tarrgets: 50% of the range and the other end (Overbought in this case).
E-59 is the limit of this bear market, would coincide with the 50% marker in a couple of weeks. 3 closes above the E-59 and the bear market flips to a bull.
One trick that can give you an oscillator’s new print for the next week is to cut back one on the sample size (does not always work).
If I bring the sample size down to 17, the stochastic comes in at 64. Still not overbought.
The 40% level in combination with the E-34 should prove to be a challenge on the first run.
So let’s look at the levels. 50% is at 1.0572
Possible resistance levels on the way up:
The Daily has come into a swing low and is overbought. May see a relief back to the 1.022x region.
Since price is no longer oppressed by stochastic embedding, the 9-day run up sequence cap out does not apply.
Some more level ideas are in the NBE boxa above for a 90-pip, 130 and 170-pip pull back.
A full mean reversion is kind of out of reach in one leg at 1.0030
What could provide support at least for a bounce is the 3x stretch on the way down @ 1.0143 instead before a leg up in combination with the E-21 at 1.01+. With a short I would target the hourly 30-sample BB low (& trail). This may come together with the upper guard rail somewhere above 1.006. I would not have hopes beyond these numbers on the downside currently.
I have certainly underestimated what the CTAs can do when they all are buying in an accord. Looks like Europe decided to export back some inflation to the US for Christmas.