Barking On Thin Mice

I am going to change this, but I wanna show something first.

What I don’t like about this plot is that if the market is at the steepest degree, the Push moves cross over the previous blow off lines, although only the Echo that counts.

So I am getting there. Never met anyone who is trying to make definitions for vague concepts, lingo and ends up thinking up market models with unabated inerest.

A few things to say here. I have been talking about not trying to fade within the blow off by 160 pips at least. At the bottom there was an approach that came within 100, and that was on the generous side. I do not expect this to get back as far.

TY

I changed the TY switch number from 26 to 27 pips. Think of the green shading as liquid water. Once the distance drops below 27 pips, the market can cross over over the thin ice. This is what the title was meant to refer to.

The next thing is the directives. High importance of the E-32 and the S-30. Also the [-> number would project a lower open.

 if (RSI2[i]>84 && !(RSI2[i+2]<12.5 || RSI2[i+3]<12.5) && Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i) && Close[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2)){
      ObjectCreate("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,0, Time[i], 0);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, clrPurple);
      if (High[i]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)+300*Point) ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, Gray);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_WIDTH, 4 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_STYLE, 2 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );
   }

   if (RSI2[i]>84 && (RSI2[i+2]<12.5 || RSI2[i+3]<12.5) && Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i) && Close[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2)){
      ObjectCreate("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,0, Time[i], 0);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, clrLimeGreen );
      if (High[i]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)+300*Point) ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, Gray);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_WIDTH, 4 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_STYLE, 2 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );
      
      ObjectCreate("Pitusi"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)+140*Point);
      ObjectSetText("Pitusi"+DoubleToStr(i), "[->"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)+50*Point,4),4), 22, "Impact", clrGreen); 
   }
   
    if (i>0 && RSI2[i+4]>84 && (RSI2[i+6]<12.5 || RSI2[i+7]<12.5) && Close[i+4]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) && Close[i+6]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+6) && (RSI2[i]<50 || RSI2[i+1]<50) ){
           ObjectCreate("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI2[i]); 
        ObjectSetText("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), "F OR HL "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i+4],4),4)+"-/S30", 18, "Impact", Blue); 
 
            ObjectCreate("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 55, Time[i], 45);
               ObjectSetInteger(0,"Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrRed);
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);    
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);  
    }
   
       if (i>0 && RSI2[i+4]>84 && (RSI2[i+6]<12.5 || RSI2[i+7]<12.5) && Close[i+4]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) && Close[i+6]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+6) && !(RSI2[i]<50 || RSI2[i+1]<50) ){
           ObjectCreate("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI2[i]); 
        ObjectSetText("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), "BUY AT MARKET->BB216/HH", 18, "Impact", DarkGreen); 
        
        
        
            ObjectCreate("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 65, Time[i], 55);
               ObjectSetInteger(0,"Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrLimeGreen);
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);    
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);  
    }

       if (i>0 && RSI2[i+4]>84 && !(RSI2[i+6]<12.5 || RSI2[i+7]<12.5) && Close[i+4]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) && Close[i+6]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+6) && !(RSI2[i]<50 || RSI2[i+1]<50) ){
           ObjectCreate("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI2[i]); 
        ObjectSetText("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), "BUY E32", 18, "Impact", DarkGreen); 

            ObjectCreate("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 65, Time[i], 55);
               ObjectSetInteger(0,"Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrLimeGreen);
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);    
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);  
    }

   
   

 if (RSI2[i]<16 && (RSI2[i+2]>87.5 || RSI2[i+3]>87.5) && Close[i]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i) && Close[i+2]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2)){
      ObjectCreate("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,0, Time[i], 0);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, clrSalmon);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_WIDTH, 4 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_STYLE, 2 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );
      
        ObjectCreate("Pitusi"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)+250*Point);
        ObjectSetText("Pitusi"+DoubleToStr(i), "[->"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)-50*Point,4),4), 22, "Impact", clrRed); 
   }


 if (RSI2[i+4]<16 && RSI2[i+5]>16 && !(RSI2[i+6]>87.5 || RSI2[i+7]>87.5) && Close[i+4]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) && Close[i+5]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+5)){
     
      ObjectCreate("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,0, Time[i+4], 0);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_COLOR, clrPink);
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_WIDTH, 4 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_STYLE, 2 );
      ObjectSet("PitusX"+IntegerToString(i), OBJPROP_BACK, 1 );
      
      if (Low[i]<iMA(symbol,0,216,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i) || Low[i+1]<iMA(symbol,0,216,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+1) || Low[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,216,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+2) || Low[i+3]<iMA(symbol,0,216,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+3)){
 ObjectCreate("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI2[i]); 
        ObjectSetText("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), "SELL S30/E32", 18, "Impact", Crimson); 
     
     
            ObjectCreate("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 55, Time[i], 45);
               ObjectSetInteger(0,"Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrRed);
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);    
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);  }
}      
    


 if (RSI2[i+4]<16 && (RSI2[i+6]>87.5 || RSI2[i+7]>87.5) && Close[i+4]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) && Close[i+6]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+6)  && !(RSI2[i]>50 || RSI2[i+1]>50) ){
              ObjectCreate("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI2[i]+20); 
        ObjectSetText("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), "BtoR "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Open[i+4],4),4)+"+/S30", 18, "Impact", Crimson); 
        
         ObjectCreate("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 55, Time[i], 45);
               ObjectSetInteger(0,"Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrRed);
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);    
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);  
}


 if (RSI2[i+4]<16 && (RSI2[i+6]>87.5 || RSI2[i+7]>87.5) && Close[i+4]<iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+4) && Close[i+6]>iMA(symbol,0,30,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i+6)  && (RSI2[i]>50 || RSI2[i+1]>50) ){
              ObjectCreate("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI2[i]); 
        ObjectSetText("Hoe"+DoubleToStr(i), "DIP: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(Low[i+4],4),4)+"-", 18, "Impact", DarkGreen); 
 
 
  ObjectCreate("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, indicator_window, Time[i+1], 55, Time[i], 45);
               ObjectSetInteger(0,"Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrLimeGreen);
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);    
               ObjectSet("Aterab"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);  


}

Next thing the U-s. Two examples say that you would have to see a total of 3x 4H fractals outside the 30 Bollinger.

Example 1:

Example 2:

Overall there’s a faint possibility to reach back into the dirt pocket at the swing high made by Wave 2 (i.e. via a Spike) which was at 1.0939 (plus a handful of pips slack) before the Wave 5 down.

I did notice the upside volatility choke during Wave 1 down, but for Friday I thought they would push back the FXE above max pain at 100. Instead the opex was at 99.70 and the close at 99.58

It is interesting to see how the IG positioning went to 49% long vs 51% short whilst on the way up the typical long was at 39-40%.

You’ll just have to take my word for it, as their server is not functioning over the weekend. The direction is down and it is down hard. A Wave 4 may walk back into the Wave 1 at 1.0884+, but this is not a given. I have longs I need to get out of on a move up all the way from 1.0852. After that I would just have my 3.3 lots core shorts and play the downside for the mentioned 3 fractal prints with sell stops at every 10 pips down + my auto trail lock in routine. I would allow for a bigger bounce after hiting 1.0730-1.0720 where I intend to take up a full hedge at. That’s my trading plan.