Base Case

My current base case for the Eur/USD is a move down to the red line (Expanding Wedge).

The blue line originated from the other Expanding Wedge that kicked off the bear market and had that gap outside, trying to push back in capital failure.

That said, we are at support and the market separator E-59 is also right here.

A mean reversion was held back again at the Lower Guard rail (in Coral), but the sell off ensued resulted in a slight beat and only 4 hours of consecutive selling versus the previous theme of 10 hours or 9+9 hours.

The 18-sample stochastic reading got pushed back below 3% twice. These numbers don’t really ever sustain.

The mean reversion would have to take price back beyond the E-9 by an extra 40 pips. We are talking 1.0820-1.0830.

From there the third leg could start, but before that some sideways movement would have to relieve the daily oversold conditions.

I think a 50+ stochastic reading (and an overbought RSI2) would be ideal to kick off the travel for the remainder of the distance.

Things would probably happen rather slowly: the B leg up would take a week and a half perhaps (5-7 days) and the C leg down could take as much as as 4-5 weeks. The B leg ultimately could tag the interrupted line at 1.0910.

By the way, the mentioned ABC stucture down what makes up the larger C leg.

Time without time.