macdulio3

The Way I See It

Now I have 2 examples of accumulation rallies (back-to-back).

Both of them started with a sideways bounce off the 6-sample 20-pip bracket. (Brown Arrow).

A professional number of buys occurred in both valleys before the run-up.

What made the second one more powerful (a double pump of sorts) was that the market experienced a squeeze, receiving an Extra/High energy charge before the next series of waves up.

 voldn[i]=iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,5,i))+200*Point; 
 volup[i]=iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,5,i))-200*Point;


       if (Low[i+1]<volup[i+1] && Close[i+1]>volup[i+1] && Low[i+4]>volup[i+4] && Low[i+3]>volup[i+3] && Low[i]>volup[i]
       && volup[i]<=volup[i+1] && volup[i+2]<=volup[i+3]
       ){
         ObjectCreate("Svxth"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Low[i+1]-10*Point); 
         ObjectSetText("Svxth"+DoubleToStr(i), "Accm+3 humps->R15->30", 23, "Impact", clrGreen);
          ObjectCreate("Svxthh"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1], Low[i+1]-70*Point); 
         ObjectSetText("Svxthh"+DoubleToStr(i), "Above weekly high->70-ac DBL-DVG+", 23, "Impact", clrGreen);
         
         
       }

What I’m really here to talk about is the exits.

The first exit was a 30-print on the Market Type, but the ultimate exit is what matters here.

There were 3 humps that mattered; the first divergence was auto-plotted, the second I had to draw in myself because I usually don’t look for one over this distance.

#3 was only settled after 3x the 30-minute printing smaller bars were settled. Then it was an “ac” = Above Cut.

So is this a buy now? Not yet. There has not been a sideways bounce off the bracket, and there hasn’t been an R15 prompt.

I have also made a summary of R15 (without an accumulation signal) exit possibilities.

A sustainable rally ends in a parabolic print with a magenta diamond / in a magenta diamond print after 20 hours of no magentas / outside the red bracket, making a new 200H+ print (new high).

Example one: parabolic w/ magenta.

Exit #2: 20 hours of nothing, first magenta print.

The last R-15 sustainable run-up was a bow-back, which made a marginally higher high.

Sure, the conditions are ideal to start an R-15 sustainable run-up, but there hasn’t been a catalyst (a spark, RSI2 spiking below 15), and I personally think that you are going to see a mean reversion next; the mean is around 1.1610 at the moment, but the reversion should take this to 1.157x.

The food for thought part is that at the beginning of a rally you can already know if it’s going to be a sustainable run-up or a spasm, and that different kinds of rallies mean having to be monitoring for different kinds of exits.

This one did surprisingly well for its kind (not popular genre, not upbeat song), and I hope there was more to this than the cover image.