Spike that is. From the green box, into the trendline… likely back into the green to rotate to the low.

Trendline resistance + E-98 8H resistance.

R1 was at 1.0378, high was at 1.0381.

I am 5 lots short. I have a sell stop at 1.0269 for a quick trade to 1.0249.

The minimum downside target matches the low at 1.0171.

Could this wick printing here be a runway for later? Certainly could, the question was the next move down.

Could they buy the no-break extension at 1.0262 and start a wave 3 up?

This was a high-volume churn up, likely the end of a leg.

It may look bullish, but the up leg has fallen shy of a W3C print or even a Goldilocks (yellow horizontal).

If the high gets taken out next, that would be bullish. Currently, this seems to be a swing high.

Well done, you have just built a narrative for trapping yourself, but you seem to have forgotten one thing.

The money flow.

Somebody decided to pick up the money flow weakness, the rally printed an MF high that would suggest the need for a higher high. The 120 sample stochastic has a lot more room to give on the upside before it starts to get overbought.

The price is outside the 30BB, right after a squeeze-release. That is more of an opening move if you ask me. Would I be surprised if they double down on the upside holdings at the 8 EMO and in the following 7 pips below it?

How about a 3-3-5 sequence for a finale?

They saved the longs from dipping below R3 twice (where the compression could have commenced).

Haven’t run these in a year.

2024 was an extremely volatile year as you know.

2-year backtest of the Municipal trader, long & short. Start at 1K, so the parabolic cap of max 2000 lots (max 10 positions, each capped at the broker’s individual 200 limit) kicked in a bit later.

1318780% gains.

Of course, I could make a 4k lot version to show even higher percentage gains, but if this were to be played in real life after large runs, some withdrawals should be made.

2-year backtest of the Municipal trader, longs only. Start at 1K, so the parabolic cap of max 2000 lots kicked in a bit later.

1309850% increase, virtually the same with 20% less trades. Does fine with longs only.

The municipal trader fades at the 207 EMA (30 min) if the Bollinger Bands are wide enough and also has Crown Royale fades (major reversals with a new high printed on an RSI2<50 or a new low on RSI2>50).

As a reminder, this was an 1100-pip range starting January 1, 2023 (arrow) and had gaps up to 150 pips on occasion. The C leg is still not completely finished.

I added the end of the pendulum fades to the W3FFF+F3 trader (450 points extra)

2-year backtest of the W3FFF+ F3 trader, longs only. Start at 1K, so the parabolic cap of max 2000 lots kicked in a bit later.

1082320% increase

No clear winner here, the two routines have nothing to do with each other, yet they perform similarly. The W3 has less drawdown but opens twice as many positions. 13 million of course is more than 10.8 million.

Sure, you can call me Jerry Williams if you wish.

At the moment the failed move was the squirt out of the green box plotting a yellow one. Since the close would be back inside the green one, a rotation to the other side would make perfect sense.

Without further consolidation, you should be aiming your short holdings for 1.0241 at a minimum.

The yellow slanted was the neckline. It broke and was backtested.

After a new consolidation, the short exit would move lower obviously.

Ci is at 44, 53 is only a couple of hours away if the price does not gap away.

This is an acceleration down, so there should be a lower low (10-16 pips more) after a brief re-visit of the 8 EMO before another 21-46 pips pullback before the final Thrust.

A red liquidity break on the daily always results in a new lower low. The only exception was circled, showing the second following day making a higher low, and so the third, and so the fourth. Nothing like the current one.

---

Not a political album this one, but there’s one track with future Felon Musk mentioned here in the “Quest For Free Speech”

(The names have been changed to protect the innocents)

Elon Musk would be your arch-enemy
A self-proclaimed Goat of gaming
But don't hate the player
Hate while you can't debate
Lance Dagobert shall pour in some knowledge
3 minutes' worth of markets and money
Michelle Macaque will be hosting
And you will find out a lot about gold mining
[chorus] 
Where dreams go crude
You beget unglued
Pick up your pitchfork
And swallow no more
Throw out the power with the bath water
Slaughter, like a neurotic robot
Kill the juice, eliminate the cast system
Free everyone, free everything, even the speech

So let me tell you what I did here with those orange highlights.

I call them trip highs. In conjunction with the squaring plots, you get a pretty full, pretty usable picture.

You put buy stops at those values. One small break, one large break seems to be the rule of thumb.

Either way, you can put on size and target 16 pips even if it is the short’s turn. Plus I run an auto trail to lock in better than break even.

//trip highs
if (High[i]-Open[i]>90*Point && High[i]-Close[i]>160*Point 
&& High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i) 
&& High[i]>High[i+1]
&& iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)>700*Point
&& iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i+3)==false
&& !(High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))
){
         ObjectCreate("KAROLYIII"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0, Time[i+1], High[i] , Time[i], Close[i]);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"KAROLYIII"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGoldenrod);
}

The descent is gonna be over when the market maker squares the shorts. That would mean an hourly candle with a 16+ pips wick on the bottom of it. If that does not happen, you play the bounce from the lower 30BB.

They are squaring now. T is a terminal distance, Thrust or No Break Extension relative to the consolidation mean. Since the price has been avoiding the S30, I would think that the lower 30BB would be touched at a minimum. Scale in nearby.

Once the purple line (FFF++) gets trampled on, the move is over. If it falls shy, like an FFF (10 pips shy this was), there is a free spin.

The idea of fluctuation maximum is a statistical figure. Here it is calculated as 46 pips from the consolidation mean (Thistle Arrow). I calculate this mean for better accuracy using 15-minute data and 48-sample CI. In 15 minutes the price usually does not move much, and I halve the last one where the CI went above 53.

In short, 1.0336 should be around the extent of the down move. Place orders 5, 4, 3 pips apart depending on the total size and what size chunks you’d prefer. Once you see a long squaring (14 pips+ wick on the bottom), you can add the missing size at market.

…

They tagged the Wpivot for good measure.

The T got rounded up to Head depth.

A high volume churn (see red bar) not reaching the yellow line (13,300) is counterproductive. It was not the market maker that dumped it.

The red volume shelf was left behind by the U-turn that kicked off the gap-down run.

…

They are now net short, so it is in their interest to take the price lower.

The lower Bollinger is still the area of interest. That’s a fixed point, even if the slow motion makes the price fully consolidated and the mean moves closer. Things have been programmed already. One change does not make everything change.

There is still some left of the immunity trade, with the mean reversion to beyond the E9 daily / E207 hourly band. Yellow box.

//squaring shorts - going  up - S30
if (Close[i]-Low[i]>160*Point && Open[i]-Low[i]>160*Point
   && (Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+1) && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+2))&& Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i)
)

//squaring shorts - going  up - S30
if (Close[i]-Low[i]>160*Point && Open[i]-Low[i]>160*Point
   && (Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+1) && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+2))&& Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i)
)

1.0160 keeps on showing up. Check where the 30BB is at now. A 3rd fractal print outside it (or a shortfall) could do it.

The market has consolidated, and the origo has moved (see arrow above).

When things go off the rails, you need a traction surface for the next push to start from.

The next one up is the inside of the 120BB, the 240 BB above. The way you keep the price outside is you reverse it when it tries to make a re-entry. 12-21 pips to do that.

If you want some help from the market maker, keep an eye out for a “lift and square” move. The last low was squared like this:

The visible wick should be more than 8 pips.

So, they flipped the boat. Too many people sat up to the Trump 1 analog, thikning Dollar shrinking from mid Jan precipitously. Market maker scored big.

The pendulum was swung out to maximum distance, and this would mean that price is on the way back to the E9 Daily.

My reminders are immunity to the S120, E207 hourly lines (The S120 is too far, so I would put on a hedge at the lower 120BB (up to +12 pips inside)). Yes, that would imply not much success for trying to short before these lines are hit.

Why am I only long 2.28 lots? I am waiting for the consolidation to occur (CI>53) before becoming more aggressive. That would re-position the centre and make a no-break extension move possible (47 pips from the new consolidation mean). I have at least 6 lots of shorts I could close out deeply in the money right now.

This current F print will turn into an F3 if today’s RSI2 print would be above 8.5 on the settle and tomorrow won’t violate today’s low.

Low[i]<Low[i-1] && iRSI(symbol,0,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)>8.5 && Low[i]<iMA(symbol,0,9,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-FMax*2.4*10*Point

I believe this will be an F3, but after consolidation, the price could push the low further out a bit delaying the reversal by another day. Yes, the previous low is very tempting at 1.0175 for maximum damage.

Believe it or not, overnight there was a 1.0151 print, and the price has memory.

That U-turn was extra important as it turns out.

---

On the bright side, you can listen to The Art Of Raw Deal now, album #51 is out.

Whoever is trapped in the circled bar could be short-squeezed indefinitely. The dip into the candle did not happen until the last FX hour on Friday. Could see a major rejection here.

Do you see the 3x BB out prints at the top? Those 3 fractals were outside the 30, 120, and 240 Bollinger Bands by 5+ pips. Not exactly a sign of weakness.

It took forever to descend back into the 1.0360-1.0350 range. It almost seemed like it may not even happen.

After 3 marginal lower lows, a liquidity break was necessary first to eke out a few more pips on the downside.

This tells you that the holdings are severely short the dollar and long the Euro.

The move down was a thrust down. It may or may not have finished yet. The market maker could make this gap if on the open the order book shows having to go short, but be aware, that any more downside may be a gift.