A market that is hitting the upper white band (2.8x stretch from the E-9) on the upside but not touching the lower one is an uptrending market.
A fresh-out condition (F) may be the start of a full turn or a correction. An F gets voided (not white) if in the following 3 days the volatility extreme gets exceeded.
A reversal requires the re-visit of an F 3 times in a row, then a break and a close outside of the box drawn.
A major top/bottom stats with the proof of a counter-directional volatility. This is a clearly visible ABC move (off #1 – on images 1 and 3). The A would miss the opposite band by 56 pips, the B would miss the band on the side of the F by a little less (say 42, 36 in these examples) and the C would miss the opposite band by even less than A did. The second F is #2 the 3rd F print requires another ABC move, but way smaller in amplitude. Nevertheless, the size is such that it should take a minimum of 3 days to print with the B falling shy of the F, and the C2 falling shy of the “A2” (a contracting pattern), then #3 would be the undercut of both 1 and 2.
There are measurements that are relevant. You should remember them.
For instance, it is possible to anticipate ahead of time the location of the first HH or LL after a section of acceleration. Fade heavily 10-13 pips out. If you want to make sure to get some fills, put out something at 4, 8 pips.
Similarly, with the knowledge that a thrust is bound to follow the HH/LL print you can be in the move by at least taking on a full hedge (if you have holdings in the other direction) 25 pips out and keep on adding (overhedge) all the way to 49 pips.
LL 21min. calls for a minimum of 21 pips retracement.
An LL GTF is good for 50-80 pips.
What is the practical use of an expression like “nothing goes up in a straight line”?
Once there was a downside Thrust (pruple), the first le up sould be at least 50pips, most likely would fall short of the 80-pip line, and in an absolute extreme there should be a 45-pip pullback after a 100-pip leg up – meaning that you would at a mimnimum get back the money for anything that was opened 65 pips off the bottom, and the trade is not likely going to go against you more than 15 pips.
See, this is an environment that you can plan in ahead by having some statistical understanding.
Once the price has diverted from the 8 EMO a great deal, after crossing it, you start to count the following hours. By the 10th hour you should have the lowest low that the first deeper correction will make. One shallow correction would be followed by one deep. Actually, the example I brought has the lower BB for a substitute of the 8 EMO, because of the peak volatility at the end of the last leg down.
The stretch multipliers are in fluctuation maximum from the E-9 band. A 4.5x stretch used to be normal volatility years ago. Now these are rare reading.
See, even time can be useful for knowing when to cut holdings. Particularly right before a 60-pip gap up.
I’d say, scaling out of shorts during the 10th hour is a sesible move.
They tried some pilot buy at the Goosing level, but ultimately price has made it to the support level relative to the consolidation mean.
This does not look bearish. An uncomfortably deep bow back.
It won’t be bearish until a new acceleration gets printed. And for that the MFI would have to go below 14. Sure, it could coast lower in the next hour. When that happens, you can always hedge yourself back at the 8 EMO.
17 was the low reading. Funnily, the money flow did not get oversold enough to qualify.
There could be a bow back bending the price back from the daily E-9 or a bit beyond (red line), these triangles (yellow) take 3 or 4 days to print, meaning a higher low near here on Tuesday, but a visit of 1.0460+ is very likely first.
…cry wolf, time to worry…
After the post there was a 14 print, and now the acceleration has been confirmed. It is most likely a trap, because the entire push is happening outside the 240BB.
Plotting BB rejections starting now. First pass at the filters. (Green and Red rectangles). The idea is to define risk and have something to hinge the size on. I plot the rectangles one candle back to see the actual candle better. Real-time/repaint is what I went with, as 1 hour later, the price may have gone too far already.
If the next hour does not make a lower low, the Thrust is in, and it is the thick kind outside the 30 BB and the 120 BB.
The acceleration takes the 7-sample MFI below 14. The LL makes an MFI reversal divergence, but it is still in the oversold zone. The Thrust does not get into the oversold zone (24).
The (last) THRUST is 2-6 hours long continuous buying/selling (typically 2, 3 or 5).
I believe this consolidation below the 80-line, with the new bear configuration (63, 53-pip lines below) is a Complete Regime Change, and the next move could be an acceleration down setting off a driven thrust.
Cut / Overhedge is another way of saying the same thing.
Is it possible to see another driven thrust on the upside first? Yes. Likely? No.
At the top, you had multiple driven thrusts even after the price had consolidated below the 80-pip line.
They were playing out of the net, the price dipped below the 80 line 3 more times, before a Driven Thrust made a lower high – but things were still hopping back then.
If they wanted another go they would have bought starting the 63-pip line, but certainly before the 80.
Going forward I have an 80-80-80 rejection before leg 3 starting from beyond the upper BB30 as my base case.
You hit the first 80, which is the brown horizontal line. There was a pullback to beyond the 8 EMO.
The red arrow is where currently price is at in a mirror.
The cyan 80 should come next. This would mean dipping below the 80 SMA (cyan) and also the BB30. That would make a Lower Low in this case, or the second 80 encounter.
The pullback seems to be to the mean of the area where price spent time before and then the 3rd 80 encounter—80 SMA again before a higher high that would most likely touch the BB120’s top and certainly be outside the BB30. This point would be excellent for a new Driven Thrust to start on the downside.
It’s an interesting one. A wave structure has gone too far by plotting a driven thrust.
I auto-plot the Thrusts in purple.
The bottom color-changing line is called the Master. It is only affected by the Accelerations (green/orange diagonals and Thrusts).
A cascade is rare, but you should spot it within 3 hours of the last thrust – price going stubborn and bowing back to the terminal.
The upper line is the Directional logic. This one is also affected by displacements and Bollinger Band rejections.
When it plots yellow, both sides have the chance (not entirely equal) to grab the lead and print an Acceleration (Drive).
There is actually one other thing that can be useful sometimes. The CounterForce52 is set to 18 samples and it plots purple bars after a 93-pip range. After the first finished purple, you want to scale out / scale in in the following 10-15 pips.
dire[i]=dire[i+1];
master[i]=master[i+1];
if (master[i]>0 && dire[i]==0 && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && Close[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)+100*Point && Open[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)
&& MFI[i]>25)
thrust[i]=1;
if (Drive[i]>0) dire[i]=1;
if (Drive[i]<0) dire[i]=-1;
if (thrust[i]<0) dire[i]=-1;
if (thrust[i]>0) dire[i]=1;
if (disp[i]>0) dire[i]=0;
if (disp[i]<0) dire[i]=0;
if (thrust[i]<0) master[i]=-1;
if (thrust[i]>0) master[i]=1;
if (thrust[i+5]>0 && thrust[i]>0) master[i]=1;
if (thrust[i+5]<0 && thrust[i]<0) master[i]=-1;
if (Drive[i+5]>0) master[i]=1;
if (Drive[i+5]<0) master[i]=-1;
Had enogh of dreading
The police pulling you over
With an expired license
Having no pension
No health care
Never had a paid day off
And been working 7 days
With 2 jobs all along?
[Pre chorus]
On the way on I-95
Your I-94 has expired
[Chorus]
Let's do a self-deportation
Tonight
Let's do a self deportation
To destination unknown
Carolina-O
Of the Sanctuary City
Any misstep now
Shall get you
Detained, your vehicle
Impounded
Your are a criminal
Your sin is wanting to live
Wanting to provide
You know you are not gonna survive
Without a cash paying job the
Implosion will mean total
Destruction and ultimately suicide
[Pre chorus]
Been in the US for a decade or more
Even have a small citizen child
Never mind
[Chorus]
Let's do a self-deportation
Tonight
Let's do a self deportation
To destination unknown
You don't have a home
ForexFore - Internals, indicators, algorithmic trading 