So let me tell you what I did here with those orange highlights.

I call them trip highs. In conjunction with the squaring plots, you get a pretty full, pretty usable picture.

You put buy stops at those values. One small break, one large break seems to be the rule of thumb.

Either way, you can put on size and target 16 pips even if it is the short’s turn. Plus I run an auto trail to lock in better than break even.

//trip highs
if (High[i]-Open[i]>90*Point && High[i]-Close[i]>160*Point 
&& High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i) 
&& High[i]>High[i+1]
&& iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)>700*Point
&& iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i+3)==false
&& !(High[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))
){
         ObjectCreate("KAROLYIII"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0, Time[i+1], High[i] , Time[i], Close[i]);
         ObjectSetInteger(0,"KAROLYIII"+DoubleToStr(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGoldenrod);
}

The descent is gonna be over when the market maker squares the shorts. That would mean an hourly candle with a 16+ pips wick on the bottom of it. If that does not happen, you play the bounce from the lower 30BB.

They are squaring now. T is a terminal distance, Thrust or No Break Extension relative to the consolidation mean. Since the price has been avoiding the S30, I would think that the lower 30BB would be touched at a minimum. Scale in nearby.

Once the purple line (FFF++) gets trampled on, the move is over. If it falls shy, like an FFF (10 pips shy this was), there is a free spin.

The idea of fluctuation maximum is a statistical figure. Here it is calculated as 46 pips from the consolidation mean (Thistle Arrow). I calculate this mean for better accuracy using 15-minute data and 48-sample CI. In 15 minutes the price usually does not move much, and I halve the last one where the CI went above 53.

In short, 1.0336 should be around the extent of the down move. Place orders 5, 4, 3 pips apart depending on the total size and what size chunks you’d prefer. Once you see a long squaring (14 pips+ wick on the bottom), you can add the missing size at market.

…

They tagged the Wpivot for good measure.

The T got rounded up to Head depth.

A high volume churn (see red bar) not reaching the yellow line (13,300) is counterproductive. It was not the market maker that dumped it.

The red volume shelf was left behind by the U-turn that kicked off the gap-down run.

…

They are now net short, so it is in their interest to take the price lower.

The lower Bollinger is still the area of interest. That’s a fixed point, even if the slow motion makes the price fully consolidated and the mean moves closer. Things have been programmed already. One change does not make everything change.

There is still some left of the immunity trade, with the mean reversion to beyond the E9 daily / E207 hourly band. Yellow box.

//squaring shorts - going  up - S30
if (Close[i]-Low[i]>160*Point && Open[i]-Low[i]>160*Point
   && (Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+1) && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+2))&& Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i)
)

//squaring shorts - going  up - S30
if (Close[i]-Low[i]>160*Point && Open[i]-Low[i]>160*Point
   && (Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+1) && Low[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i+2))&& Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i)
)

1.0160 keeps on showing up. Check where the 30BB is at now. A 3rd fractal print outside it (or a shortfall) could do it.

The market has consolidated, and the origo has moved (see arrow above).

When things go off the rails, you need a traction surface for the next push to start from.

The next one up is the inside of the 120BB, the 240 BB above. The way you keep the price outside is you reverse it when it tries to make a re-entry. 12-21 pips to do that.

If you want some help from the market maker, keep an eye out for a “lift and square” move. The last low was squared like this:

The visible wick should be more than 8 pips.

So, they flipped the boat. Too many people sat up to the Trump 1 analog, thikning Dollar shrinking from mid Jan precipitously. Market maker scored big.

The pendulum was swung out to maximum distance, and this would mean that price is on the way back to the E9 Daily.

My reminders are immunity to the S120, E207 hourly lines (The S120 is too far, so I would put on a hedge at the lower 120BB (up to +12 pips inside)). Yes, that would imply not much success for trying to short before these lines are hit.

Why am I only long 2.28 lots? I am waiting for the consolidation to occur (CI>53) before becoming more aggressive. That would re-position the centre and make a no-break extension move possible (47 pips from the new consolidation mean). I have at least 6 lots of shorts I could close out deeply in the money right now.

This current F print will turn into an F3 if today’s RSI2 print would be above 8.5 on the settle and tomorrow won’t violate today’s low.

Low[i]<Low[i-1] && iRSI(symbol,0,2,PRICE_MEDIAN,i)>8.5 && Low[i]<iMA(symbol,0,9,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i)-FMax*2.4*10*Point

I believe this will be an F3, but after consolidation, the price could push the low further out a bit delaying the reversal by another day. Yes, the previous low is very tempting at 1.0175 for maximum damage.

Believe it or not, overnight there was a 1.0151 print, and the price has memory.

That U-turn was extra important as it turns out.

---

On the bright side, you can listen to The Art Of Raw Deal now, album #51 is out.

Whoever is trapped in the circled bar could be short-squeezed indefinitely. The dip into the candle did not happen until the last FX hour on Friday. Could see a major rejection here.

Do you see the 3x BB out prints at the top? Those 3 fractals were outside the 30, 120, and 240 Bollinger Bands by 5+ pips. Not exactly a sign of weakness.

It took forever to descend back into the 1.0360-1.0350 range. It almost seemed like it may not even happen.

After 3 marginal lower lows, a liquidity break was necessary first to eke out a few more pips on the downside.

This tells you that the holdings are severely short the dollar and long the Euro.

The move down was a thrust down. It may or may not have finished yet. The market maker could make this gap if on the open the order book shows having to go short, but be aware, that any more downside may be a gift.

Neutral zone. Neither side of the volatility was pushed below/above the R3/S3 level (purple line).

The champions of compression are the CTAs. Don’t seem to care right now.

The market has been finding support and resistance at the E-44, the S240 combined with outside the BB30, and outside both the BB240 and BB30 a little earlier before falling into the washing machine’s drum.

Here’s an opportunity to realize that the red and green volume bars are usually counterproductive churns, meaning, they make their own resistance zone, that usually triggers a larger reaction.

Where to from here? I would think an undercut of the lows could be bought at 1.0360-1.0350.

The bottom band (white line, 2.2x fluctuation maximum from the E9) would not be touched for several months in my opinion.

---

From The Art Of Raw Deal (Album #51)

Ay, amigo, the future of AI!
A shift in the direction of the air
A rapture of a buttered fly's
Left wing
The oral office remains wide open
You have some nerve with
That kind of a distribution curve

Current exchange level of the currency
A peg would surely keep it from falling
Your mouth from talking
And the portfolio from tanking
(I'm the great Cornholio!) 
Make a change
Liberate your chains
Talk to the hand
I am not your friend
(I need TP for my bunghole)
The art of the raw deal
Is to shred what is confidential
Or at least take them home with you
And only sell nuclear secrets
To the highest bidder

It does not look good for Dollar Bulls before FOMC.

High volume churn down followed by high volume churn up. They are back to back usually.

The F on top was an engagement of the upside.

A Wave 3 up was gonna come from the middle line (just below the E-9) or a deeper dip to the lower guard rail which is about 40 pips lower.

They bought last week’s pivot so far. I have 1.0374 and 1.0353 on the downside as optional buys if it would come to that. I am not saying that you would see a lower low, that is not the base case.

At the moment the bulls hold the volatility edge after a brief convergence.

The down move ended at the Fluctuation Maximum limit (another No Break Extension).

…and now a pro volume print. If that’s a profit take, well, this whole thing has gone rather neutral.

Lots of professional activity today. (Cyan volume bars). Highly doubt that this was an accumulation.

Today they bought the S1 for a new high. I got out after the gap-fill reaction, leaving 3K on the table.

The move up was a thrust, albeit a slow one, 6 hours vs the typical 2.5-3 hours.

By understanding the concept of consolidation and measuring fluctuation maximum distance, you can see how far the market can fluctuate. Within this range, no breakout occurs; hence, I sometimes call this move a No-Break Extension (NBR).

The price is reacting to the 14-week SMA. The weekly S1 is at 1.0283.

The Weekly Pivot is at 1.0393

The bear market ended when there were 3 hourly closes above R3.

The start of the bull market was 3 hourly closes below S3.

A Yellow volatility divergence normally prompts a pullback to the other end of the 30-sample BB.

F3 is approximately the same as S3.

The buy zone should be around 1.0426. The 7-sample MFI should also get down below 15.

A yellow divergence does not make for a safe top. The break out must be bought once the price has consolidated (CI>53, not far now).

The yellow divergence would have been gray if it took one more hour for the price to get back below the 8 EMO. Not enough separation is the difference.

Since they have purchased every undercut of the S2 and accumulated at S3, there is no reason to think that this behavior has changed.

---

Album #50