In one single day up to the 2.2 Gray band (1). 15 pips pullback by the close. 150 pips off the W4 low VS 155 in the prior example.
The next day should make an additional 15-pip dip, but the overnight spread expansion may just strip away half of that.
The extension in the prior example over the 3rd Wave’s swing point was 23 pips more, straight into the 2.8 (white band), followed by the back test of the swing high for the next big leg.
Notice the number of days. 5 to the ultimate high. A Wave 2 may only be 1 to 2 days, but a Wave 5 would take longer.
W1 and W4 have kissed. This looks like an expanding wedge (working up volatility).
The white brackets are 2.8 fluctuation maximum away from the E-9. The 3 lines are 25, 50, and 75%.
The deepest pullback would not make it to the band but would have a very hard time closing below the 3rd line.
The closest example to what is happening is this:
Let’s mirror it.
In the orange oval, there was a reflex bounce of 85 pips – this is consistent with the current Gray divergence calling for an 88+ pips correction. Then price came back once more and faked out the prior swing.
The distance from the W3 peak to the W5 was 120 pips.
I have a lecture about the structure of a swing, but it would take a lot.
In the meantime, here’s the “shot over the bow” condition, a 50+ counter-directional volatility read (from the 20-hour lowest low/highest high) after an extensive choke.
These summer doldrums are low-volume days. You are trading what Hedge Funds commit to, not against CTAs and other players. It truly feels like trading Bitcoin futures.
The only signals to be taken into account are money flow divergences.
The following is a major money flow divergence – relative to the 120 sample stochastics.
The reason why this does not print as a False start is that the stochastic is diverging itself – nevertheless, this is a good divergence play with the money flow not getting even remotely oversold.
There is one more thing that can yield some security and that is the volatility reserve. The lower line is a start from a greater compression, so there is less distance to be had.
The Goldilocks is currently 1.0801
The Money Flow flip on the 4H is the ultimate control routine.
The (Money Flow) False Start is a conditional control routine. You must factor in where the market is trading and yield to the signal that is in line with the swing’s color.
The swing that the price is currently testing is a swing high, so you want to put your faith in the false starts appearing to the upside.
The price is working inside the previous swinghigh and just came down to test the close of it.
By the way, you can have the Fib tool list the price level in MT4, just put “%$” in the level’s description.
The whole story is about these pro-volume dudes.
Take these candles seriously, because whoever has assigned/parked capital in this market, would most likely like to avoid a drawdown. Doubling down is one way of doing this.
Taking back 2 fractals would put the price back to just below 1.09
We were put on this planet to make music. I know this now.
You decide. Depending on the available volatility, a weekly swing would be 266+ pips in the direction of progression or 611+ (18-sample bracket), so it is a very good idea not to fight what is going on to prevent some serious pain.
There is a checklist for a swing high (not identical for a swing low).
It involves the 18-sample volatility, a 2 or 3-candle sequence with one pink and one black candle, the close-down by 91+ pips at the first black progression candle, and there is one more thing: the close-down candle has to be below the 75% marker.
Of course, the high could have been made by the prior candle, so the next example managed to do this, even if barely.
The current close is so much on the fence, that it is ridiculous. Both by the 93 pips down close and the 75% marker.
What is even more off here is the back-to-back second pro volume week. I am biased, as you know, but I think this is all a Wave 4 accumulation before the move up beyond 1.1029, towards which they would be handing out Euro longs.
The current close is also at the previous swing high’s 50 % marker.
What are the people in command of large volume blocks up to?
I’d say the first 3 cyan highlighted bars were buys, the 4th was a sell. Not a sell everything, maybe a sell of 1/2 of the holdings, and price had eased back to their last buy zone. I’d say they are positioned for Dollar creaming, and they do not have to put up a lot more to start cooking with gas again.
You need to find ways to identify the currently running program. Once the ID is made, you can align your trades/holdings until the corresponding exit condition.
I showed you the Money Flow flip. Implementing reminders.
I could not say how far the market would go at the time (had a vague clue, Gray divergence ->88 to 135 pips), but in retrospect, it should have been obvious: until the next fresh money flow reversal zone.
I did have bad feelings when I saw the 2nd false start down and there was no rally. Now I can tell that these were there to achieve a full consolidation to be able to reach further.
Candle charts fail to show what a struggle it can be to get to a certain distance.
Now that we have utilized the money flow reversal zone, another control function can guide you in for holding longs to just shy of the 3rd hourly Fractal back. Only one reversal zone was printed and 1.0835 and 1.0829 were the projected buy levels.
As you can see, the money flow reversal zone did not print till Wednesday (the money flow flip happened last Thursday), so the program was to sell until the new Money Flow Reversal Zone prints & gets tested for 5 days.
This kind of reflection is writing the code for the future, not some egocentric whining.
The control function should always have a provisory exit condition.
Take back 2 fractals means scoring 2 (the second and the third on the left count as one as they are equal) and the 4th (Fractal 3) is going to remain untouched. 1.0889 cap or so. There is still a hesitation around the S3 level, so there may be a right shoulder first.
///////Volatility Divergence On The Downside
if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i) && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,160,i))==iLow(symbol,0,i)
&& ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)]<10
// && ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,14,i+10)]<41
&& ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)]<ExtATRBuffer2[i]
&& ExtATRBuffer2[i]<41
// && Close[i-1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)
&& ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,70,i+10)]<ExtATRBuffer[i]
)
{
ObjectCreate("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TREND,indicator_window, Time[i], ExtATRBuffer2[i], Time[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)], ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)]);
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPowderBlue);
if (ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,14,i+10)]>41) { ObjectCreate("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+8],Low[i]-40*Point);
ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"TAKE BCK 2 FRACT.(5H)", 26, "Impact", clrCadetBlue);
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]<105) ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"TAKE BCK 3 FRACT.(5H)", 26, "Impact", clrCadetBlue);
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]>166) ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"TAKE BCK 1 FRACT.(5H)", 26, "Impact", clrCadetBlue);
if (i>5 && (Low[i-5]<Low[i] || Low[i-4]<Low[i] || Low[i-3]<Low[i] || Low[i-2]<Low[i] || Low[i-1]<Low[i])) ObjectDelete("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i));
}
if (ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,14,i+10)]<41) {
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrYellow);
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]>41 && Close[i-1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)) {
ObjectCreate("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+8],Low[i]-40*Point);
ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"FLIP OVER", 26, "Impact", clrYellow);}
if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]>41) ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPink);
if (Close[i-1]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)){
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray); }}
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,6);
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,true);
}
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