You decide. Depending on the available volatility, a weekly swing would be 266+ pips in the direction of progression or 611+ (18-sample bracket), so it is a very good idea not to fight what is going on to prevent some serious pain.
There is a checklist for a swing high (not identical for a swing low).
It involves the 18-sample volatility, a 2 or 3-candle sequence with one pink and one black candle, the close-down by 91+ pips at the first black progression candle, and there is one more thing: the close-down candle has to be below the 75% marker.
Of course, the high could have been made by the prior candle, so the next example managed to do this, even if barely.
The current close is so much on the fence, that it is ridiculous. Both by the 93 pips down close and the 75% marker.
What is even more off here is the back-to-back second pro volume week. I am biased, as you know, but I think this is all a Wave 4 accumulation before the move up beyond 1.1029, towards which they would be handing out Euro longs.
The current close is also at the previous swing high’s 50 % marker.
What are the people in command of large volume blocks up to?
I’d say the first 3 cyan highlighted bars were buys, the 4th was a sell. Not a sell everything, maybe a sell of 1/2 of the holdings, and price had eased back to their last buy zone. I’d say they are positioned for Dollar creaming, and they do not have to put up a lot more to start cooking with gas again.
You need to find ways to identify the currently running program. Once the ID is made, you can align your trades/holdings until the corresponding exit condition.
I showed you the Money Flow flip. Implementing reminders.
I could not say how far the market would go at the time (had a vague clue, Gray divergence ->88 to 135 pips), but in retrospect, it should have been obvious: until the next fresh money flow reversal zone.
I did have bad feelings when I saw the 2nd false start down and there was no rally. Now I can tell that these were there to achieve a full consolidation to be able to reach further.
Candle charts fail to show what a struggle it can be to get to a certain distance.
Now that we have utilized the money flow reversal zone, another control function can guide you in for holding longs to just shy of the 3rd hourly Fractal back. Only one reversal zone was printed and 1.0835 and 1.0829 were the projected buy levels.
As you can see, the money flow reversal zone did not print till Wednesday (the money flow flip happened last Thursday), so the program was to sell until the new Money Flow Reversal Zone prints & gets tested for 5 days.
This kind of reflection is writing the code for the future, not some egocentric whining.
The control function should always have a provisory exit condition.
Take back 2 fractals means scoring 2 (the second and the third on the left count as one as they are equal) and the 4th (Fractal 3) is going to remain untouched. 1.0889 cap or so. There is still a hesitation around the S3 level, so there may be a right shoulder first.
///////Volatility Divergence On The Downside
if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i) && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,160,i))==iLow(symbol,0,i)
&& ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)]<10
// && ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,14,i+10)]<41
&& ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)]<ExtATRBuffer2[i]
&& ExtATRBuffer2[i]<41
// && Close[i-1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)
&& ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,70,i+10)]<ExtATRBuffer[i]
)
{
ObjectCreate("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TREND,indicator_window, Time[i], ExtATRBuffer2[i], Time[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)], ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMinimum(ExtATRBuffer2,160,i+1)]);
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPowderBlue);
if (ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,14,i+10)]>41) { ObjectCreate("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+8],Low[i]-40*Point);
ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"TAKE BCK 2 FRACT.(5H)", 26, "Impact", clrCadetBlue);
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]<105) ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"TAKE BCK 3 FRACT.(5H)", 26, "Impact", clrCadetBlue);
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]>166) ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"TAKE BCK 1 FRACT.(5H)", 26, "Impact", clrCadetBlue);
if (i>5 && (Low[i-5]<Low[i] || Low[i-4]<Low[i] || Low[i-3]<Low[i] || Low[i-2]<Low[i] || Low[i-1]<Low[i])) ObjectDelete("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i));
}
if (ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,14,i+10)]<41) {
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrYellow);
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]>41 && Close[i-1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)) {
ObjectCreate("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+8],Low[i]-40*Point);
ObjectSetText("Frogg"+IntegerToString(i),"FLIP OVER", 26, "Impact", clrYellow);}
if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]>41) ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPink);
if (Close[i-1]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)){
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrGray); }}
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,6);
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
ObjectSet("Frog"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,true);
}
The trade-off is that when the market flips, the brakes won’t work either.
The flip? If you use my MFI plot that has red shading below the original 50 reading, you would see that the top fractal had a negative (upside down print).
The brakes, S1 and S2 did not hold, S3 was just undercut.
This is the first Full Discharge, and the guidance is a bounce back to the hourly E-44 first.
Since the S-356 band is ascending, this should be a fake-out.
The P/NR print is at 1.0921. F2 minus is 1.0901. There is a possibility of a serial unraveling thanks to the column of Spinners left on the way down.
The first thing to say is that this is a converging, sideways market.
The largest dilation between the 21 EMA and the 59 EMA was 60 pips in the last 40 weeks, so the swing highs and lows made within the year are likely safe.
The second thing to notice is the U-turn with a gap down and a gap up around the slanted line.
Classic trap, like an abandoned baby is. The space between the interrupted brown lines is the mean zone.
The third thing is that a good swing high has 90+pips to the first weekly black close from the high.
Well, the market just violated the last one which may mean a change of direction.
Now, the volume part.
Look at what happens when the weekly volume shows professional activity.
Yes, you get a doji-looking thing as all the available volume gets absorbed/hijacked.
The color of the candle does not matter. What does matter is the previous body. You are going to see a continuation in its direction the next week. Out of the previous 4 arrows, these were either setting a trap (50%) or reinvigorated the trending move (50%). Since we are not coming off of a major swing low, my money would be on the trap. The arrow pointing down managed 28 pips, the one pointing up added another 120 pips.
I’m thinking of seeing 90-110 pips at the peak next week from 1.0949. That’s 1.1039-1.1059.
This, what you just went through was a technical analysis.
I’m saying this because this guy does something else.
“But if I draw the trendline like this” – nobody gives a hoot about how you are drawing lines.
“90% off lifetime membership” – to what exactly?
“If you want my help…” – you cannot help yourself, and export your ill bias to everyone else.
“I was wrong…” – no shit. Please avoid this kind of “streetsmart” crap.
First of all, the cover level of the longs, 1.0947 was plotted 30+ trading days ago.
Secondly, this market has both embedded stochastic to the upside (daily) and to the downside (hourly).
The money flow seems to not get more oversold anymore.
This is a sideways market, where we are working on the extension beyond an A leg up (which plotted the cover level).
After the S0 inferno, we have closed up on the S2. I do not fancy the gray divergence for an end.
A classic mean reversion to the E-9. There should be another yellow divergence later on with the Green volatility line staying below 166. Call this move back down a Wave 4.
I believe that there would be at least one, but very likely 2 more bow-backs up, and an ultimate high beyond 1.10, perhaps 1.1006-1.1030
Flat top/drop. I just reminded myself of Omni Oscar Mahoney and the time when I commented on one of his videos: Coke?
So yeah, I do not like this top for a swing high due to the lack of volatility (here meaning less than 2.5x fluctuation maximum stretch from the E-9 band). The bow back counter requires the tag of at least the gray line. Gladys & Gentlemen, the moment we’ve all been debating for…
…is still not happening – or is it?
The gray, flexi line is at 2.5, whilst the white is going with the 2.8 standard.
It feels like 3 participants are holding maximum longs and no new money coming in.
It reminds me of a Pif gag, where they are trying to get into a pyramid, and the riddle they find is this:
“You hold each other’s chin, and whoever laughs first, gets slapped”.
The CTAs are not about to blink that’s for sure. Either the small or the large speculators have to start selling.
There is a major squeeze going on right now.
Finally, there’s a yellow line. With divergences, the steeper does not mean better. I changed the value cut off to 31, so the first divergence shows up in pink, which is an “early” divergence, not a final one.
A yellow should mean 210+ pips down from the high ( 1.0845->1.0630- )
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