The end game is ultimate, one-sided control of volatility. The end game is a ripe condition, a structured framework for a market turn.

To get to the end-game territory, the market must cross over the SOB level first.

This level is going to let the move happen, even providing some boost to reach the E-level.

The SOB level is 47 pips relative to the 200-hour swing high/swing low.

The structure of a turn is at least 43 hours of counter-directional volatility compression where the S0/R0 serves as a cap not letting the price get down to the SOB level.

The sequence of the structure is a Shot-Over-The-Bow, a fresh Volatility Compression Divergence (new 200-sample high/low is necessary for this and is usually within 70-86 pips from the last SOB encounter), and a Break over the Bow.

A sudden, quick turn (16 hours of volatility compression before an SOB touch) has a non-lasting effect, that can send back the volatility lines for a kiss before continuing with the original direction.

So now there could be an end game lasting 20+ hours to the Break Over The Bow after making the new high first. I am hoping for a volatility boost from a drop to the E level or the S0 as momentum has choked.

The next weekly resistance level is 1.10735.

The next long cover level is 1.1082. RSI2 is enough to make a peak of some sort.

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Achilles Dent: Lars 49 on SoundCloud

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Achilles Dent: VV Contemplating Lyrics

Vicky Vale debating
About the parody of shame
Rebate Man choking
The Joker is joking

Theatre of Rugged Teeth
City and Guilds of Gotham 
Flipping birds
Singing princes, priceless

Turn on the spigot
Ratchet that hatchet
Hose that spot
I bet you can bat that man
Robot Margie

Like a movie 
Blown in the wind
Raking in like a Virgin
Spank for the very first crime

Halluci-nation
Up, uprise, more, more fries
Jurrasic Torah-sync
This one was for the ages

Fluster designation
47 A.K
47
License to the plate
Raising the bet
Putting it off
Onto the pedestal
Which character of yours
Was I hating?

The case for an intermediate swing high printing next.

The volume had increased beyond the 100-week average for the last 2 weeks, the volatility compression lows are into the thick, sub-93 zone (orange ovals).

This would be associated with major swing under development, but I have a recent example of an intermediate swing (orange triangle). If I put another qualifying line at 457 pips (blue) the shortfall is only an extra 50+ pips, so an 1.1060-1.1090 high would be entirely in line. The last intermediate swing print came in at 516 (which would mean 110 pips beyond 1.1010 or 1.1120).

See there’s a problem with calling the current close down a finished swing high.

The close, albeit more than 91 pips, is sitting at the top of the prior swing high (at support) and there is no history of a weekly close down at a reversal closing up higher than the prior candle’s close.

You do not have a swing high.

…has not been closed below.

The gray, 3.8x fluctuation maximum line is currently around 1.1040. If the market was to gap up, or make a run for it, this could be the approximate location of the swing high.

Now, remember that the denominator is 9 days. 4 more days from now the sample’s lowest data point (daily median) would have moved to beyond 1.0915. The stretch line by then would be up to 70-pip higher (happens to be FOMC Thursday). 1.1110 again?

First, how is the swing high doing?

If the market were to finish where it is now, you would have a swing high in place.

The checklist: pink and black sequence, RSI2 having reached 92+, 266 pips from the 18-sample low, 91+ pips close down from the high on the first black weekly candle.

However, I can’t shake the feeling that it is not going to play out like this.

Onto the daily.

A bow back occurs when after a counter-directional move, the holdings start to re-establish their dominance.

The reason to pay attention to the most progression achieved by the bow’s 3rd day (and also the 6th) is that you would have a statistical edge by being able to plot a zone for an optimal exit.

These displacements come into play when the progression high gets tripped by say 5 pips to avoid a fake out, and this can happen on day 4 or 40 days down the road, the table/trap will remain set – come alone or come many.

In this image, you can see how methodically the previous high (1.1008) begets targeted intraday.

With the 5-pip tolerance deducted, you would arrive at a minimum 60-pip run to the closer end of the box, where you should be dumping all longs. If the move coasts on, scale into a short. Make the most of it.

By the way, there was a 4-H money flow flip showing the 1.088x area with the inverted money flow print on the 4-H lower fractal real-time.

Also, it was like a ballet dance between the two volatility lines came together for a kiss.

I’d say someone is still long here.

While the market is accelerating, the move is not over.

An impulse wave ends in a reversal divergence. 3.98x Fluctuation Maximum was the measuring leg.

For the divergent, I placed the gray band at 3.8x.

Could take 2, or even 3 more days to set the divergence.

As for the level itself, it should be above 1.1045, the bumper line for a Shaded Powder Box to print.

1.1028 is an important long cover number – 1.0997 was used today.

1.1072 is the next weekly level – likely will not get there.

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I’m getting Ashur Daved handed to me. Not entirely out yet though.

Achilles Dent: A White Shark’s Christmas

Confession time.

I get trapped badly by the very same setup over and over again.

1 The shot over the bow – 2 final leg – 3 break the bow sequence

The funny thing is, I’m the only person on the planet who made an indicator to avoid this.

 if (ExtATRBuffer[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer,45,i+1)]<50 && ExtATRBuffer[i]>50){
   ObjectCreate("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TREND, indicator_window,  Time[i], ExtATRBuffer[i], Time[i], 31);
                     ObjectSetInteger(0,"Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrBlue);
                     ObjectSet("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
                     ObjectSet("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
                     ObjectSet("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,14);   
 
 }
  if (ExtATRBuffer2[ArrayMaximum(ExtATRBuffer2,42,i+1)]<50 && ExtATRBuffer2[i]>50){
   ObjectCreate("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TREND, indicator_window,  Time[i], ExtATRBuffer2[i], Time[i], 31);
                     ObjectSetInteger(0,"Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrBlue);
                     ObjectSet("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
                     ObjectSet("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
                     ObjectSet("Pepper"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,14);   
 
 }

Of course, I had to specialize in one single instrument first. Well, at least now I am certain that I should be looking for a Gray divergence, not a yellow one.

Achilles Dent: Love Changes Something

So far it is following the script.

In one single day up to the 2.2 Gray band (1). 15 pips pullback by the close. 150 pips off the W4 low VS 155 in the prior example.

The next day should make an additional 15-pip dip, but the overnight spread expansion may just strip away half of that.

The extension in the prior example over the 3rd Wave’s swing point was 23 pips more, straight into the 2.8 (white band), followed by the back test of the swing high for the next big leg.

Notice the number of days. 5 to the ultimate high. A Wave 2 may only be 1 to 2 days, but a Wave 5 would take longer.

W1 and W4 have kissed. This looks like an expanding wedge (working up volatility).

The white brackets are 2.8 fluctuation maximum away from the E-9. The 3 lines are 25, 50, and 75%.

The deepest pullback would not make it to the band but would have a very hard time closing below the 3rd line.

The closest example to what is happening is this:

Let’s mirror it.

In the orange oval, there was a reflex bounce of 85 pips – this is consistent with the current Gray divergence calling for an 88+ pips correction. Then price came back once more and faked out the prior swing.

The distance from the W3 peak to the W5 was 120 pips.

I have a lecture about the structure of a swing, but it would take a lot.

In the meantime, here’s the “shot over the bow” condition, a 50+ counter-directional volatility read (from the 20-hour lowest low/highest high) after an extensive choke.

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Album #18

“When the doves try”

“Do the locking motion with me!”

“Spank for the very first crime”

“Prison break smoke break”

“I am going to bill this kill under pleasure”

“Mama, I’m subliminal”

A handful.

These summer doldrums are low-volume days. You are trading what Hedge Funds commit to, not against CTAs and other players. It truly feels like trading Bitcoin futures.

The only signals to be taken into account are money flow divergences.

The following is a major money flow divergence – relative to the 120 sample stochastics.

The reason why this does not print as a False start is that the stochastic is diverging itself – nevertheless, this is a good divergence play with the money flow not getting even remotely oversold.

There is one more thing that can yield some security and that is the volatility reserve. The lower line is a start from a greater compression, so there is less distance to be had.

The Goldilocks is currently 1.0801

The Money Flow flip on the 4H is the ultimate control routine.

The (Money Flow) False Start is a conditional control routine. You must factor in where the market is trading and yield to the signal that is in line with the swing’s color.

The swing that the price is currently testing is a swing high, so you want to put your faith in the false starts appearing to the upside.

Now the fake out was made as well.

I’d say none.

The price is working inside the previous swinghigh and just came down to test the close of it.

By the way, you can have the Fib tool list the price level in MT4, just put “%$” in the level’s description.

The whole story is about these pro-volume dudes.

Take these candles seriously, because whoever has assigned/parked capital in this market, would most likely like to avoid a drawdown. Doubling down is one way of doing this.

Taking back 2 fractals would put the price back to just below 1.09

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We were put on this planet to make music. I know this now.

Bezos, sell some shares. Rihanna, hit it!

Achilles Dent: Umbrella Movie Time