Elliott, my no-good-for-nothing son! Sit up straight in my class.
For your Corrections exam you received a C. You even failed to name the 3 kinds of the corrections.
The loneliness correction likely occurs when the 30-sample hourly BBs are still expanding. The price only makes it to the other side of the S30 by the 14th, 16th hour. Example:
The disregard correction likely occurs when the 30-sample hourly BBs have stopped expanding and the correction reaches its peak at the 21st / 23rd hour, often breaching the upper band. The S30 often gets challenged before the 14th / 16th hour. Example:
The 3rd correction type is the Liquidity Break.
Image below: Loneliness or Disregard?
We use indicators because we don’t have X-ray vision. You cannot just eyeball a candle and determine that the hourly RSI2 was below 6, I start counting the hours of the correction here.
For Wave Structures, you got an F. The volatility whip is not part of the wave structure, thus no labelling required. Recent Vol Whips highlighted.
Wave absorption is an experimental field. Usually it is Wave 4 that gets absorbed throwing off the count. My suggestion is a 6-sample 3SD 4-hour BB to spot the breach during extreme compression of volatility.
Back to Ricky Gervais.
He is dancing with Seona tears in his eyes.
The Seona images are from brochures. My only criteria was that they were taken the same day, so this image did not qualify:
Nor did this:
These did.
These two below look exactly like my wife & kid. What a coincidence!
Viva La Republica
The above call was made when the 1st powder box printed on the downside.
I remembered a setup that was the mirror image of this, on the second run the red line proved to be final. Of course, in this case the continuation divergence got broken and they rounded up the short gains a little more. I would expect the 50% of this new powder box to hold. Call it 1.0687
The great thing about Forex trading is that you can get away with little time by the computer. Crossing borders, flying for days, sailing without internet, buggy riding does not have to stop you from bringing your average holiday or not. Daily $500 is $2500 per week.
$2,9555.60 / 4 days (=$738.9 avg.) meets the criteria.
Don’t worry, won’t hold you for long. My target for the Wave 5 is 1.0705 (red square bottom). After that a vol whip’s V leg back to the continuation high (1.0950)
So what is Dominic doing over here? I left on Monday with a last minute withdrawal.
Teaching turtles algae jumping. I have gotten good at Photoshopping feet.
My new movement is this: make it and then pretend you’re faking it.
The process of turning the direction back up requires 2 triangles.
The 14x 4 hrs count is there to find the “head”.
The uptrend requires the print of the 2nd triangle, the right shoulder / higher low.
Of course, there can be surprises beyond the 14 print, but the red zone of the powder box should set a limit to this.
Since the higher low would be a correction, it would have to poke below the Lower Guard rail, which is the 4 hour E-52 minus a fluctuation maxiumum (38.4 pips – in orange). The first dotted line represents “deep correction” which is an additional 60 pips out.
This is my explanation as to why I am currently fully hedged despite the blue trendline has been broken to the upside.
There should be a higher low print – or a push back on the head.
There is one more thing. The 3 resistance prints (red laser beams) in close proximity would suggest a deeper pullback / continuation down.
Yes, this is going to be a CNT. Much too technical.
I guess I have not really shown you examples of the 100-pip stepping blocks at swing turns.
This was meant to be the lead up to the first answer about why use a 100-pip (1000 points) displacement for the bumper lines.
if (High[i+20]>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,200,i+21))) upperbumper[i]=High[i+20]+1000*Point;
if (Low[i+20]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,200,i+21))) lowerbumper[i]=Low[i+20]-1000*Point;
We are talking the protruding green and orange lines. Some help with the limitations.
By the way, the market has already gone into escrow, doing its 14×4 hrs count.
The powder boxes could print without touching these lines, but overall, price will not go without noticing it by at least a touch & divergence or a near miss.
Example below for the touch & cca 100 pips miss-divergnece.
Now a quick supplementary info on the E-50 band on the daily. It is actually a 20-sample E44 smoothing and the other two bands are 10-sample 1 std displacements.
Pretty sure I’ve posted the code before.
#property copyright "Bands by Macdulio, (c) 2021"
#property link "http://www.forexfore.blog"
#property description "Bands by Macdulio"
#property description "You don't defy the first day"
#property description "Passing through God."
#property indicator_chart_window
#property indicator_buffers 3
#property indicator_color1 LightSeaGreen
#property indicator_color2 LightSeaGreen
#property indicator_color3 LightSeaGreen
extern int lookback = 1000;
double ExtMovingBuffer[];
double ExtUpperBuffer[];
double ExtLowerBuffer[];
double E44[];
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator initialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int init()
{
IndicatorBuffers(3);
// IndicatorDigits(Digits);
//--- middle line
SetIndexStyle(0,DRAW_LINE,0,3,indicator_color1);
SetIndexBuffer(0,ExtMovingBuffer);
SetIndexLabel(0,"Bands SMA");
//--- upper band
SetIndexStyle(1,DRAW_LINE,0,3,indicator_color2);
SetIndexBuffer(1,ExtUpperBuffer);
SetIndexLabel(1,"Bands Upper");
//--- lower band
SetIndexStyle(2,DRAW_LINE,0,3,indicator_color3);
SetIndexBuffer(2,ExtLowerBuffer);
SetIndexLabel(2,"Bands Lower");
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Bollinger Bands |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start()
{
ArrayResize(E44, Bars);
ArrayInitialize(E44,EMPTY_VALUE);
ArrayResize(ExtMovingBuffer, Bars);
ArrayInitialize(ExtMovingBuffer,0);
ArrayResize(ExtUpperBuffer, Bars);
ArrayInitialize(ExtUpperBuffer,0);
ArrayResize(ExtLowerBuffer, Bars);
ArrayInitialize(ExtLowerBuffer,0);
int i,j;
string symbol = Symbol();
double std;
for (i=lookback; i>=0; i--){ E44[i]=iMA(symbol,0,44,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,i);
}
for (i=0; i<lookback; i++){
for (j=i; j<i+20; j++)
ExtMovingBuffer[i]=ExtMovingBuffer[i]+E44[j];
ExtMovingBuffer[i]=ExtMovingBuffer[i]/20;
}
deletetxt1("God");
for (i=lookback-1; i>=0; i--)
{
std = iStdDevOnArray(ExtMovingBuffer,0,10,0,0,i);
if (High[i]>ExtMovingBuffer[i]+100*Point && Low[i]<ExtMovingBuffer[i]-100*Point && !(High[i+1]>ExtMovingBuffer[i+1] && Low[i+1]<ExtMovingBuffer[i+1]))
ObjectCreate("God"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], ExtMovingBuffer[i]+130*Point);
ObjectSetText("God"+DoubleToStr(i), "GOD DAY 1", 14, "Impact", Maroon);
}
return(0);
}
void deletetxt1(string text){
for(int iObj=ObjectsTotal()-1; iObj >= 0; iObj--){
string on = ObjectName(iObj);
if(StringFind(on, text) == 0) ObjectDelete(on);
} }
Now, down to the subject of the B-s.
B36 9cnt aka B sensitivo
The sensitive B is an RSI2 divergence that occurs within the hourly 30-sample BB HL2.
Two examples below.
The way it behaves is the following: a 9-hour counter starts ticking. If price comes back within that time to retest the low, the divergence is “confirmed in”. The back test should not exceed the divergent low by more than a handful of pips.
The one on the left shows when price is taking longer than 9 hours to return, it gives way and there would be a lower low made about 36 pips out.
Two more earlier examples for this step down function. Wait a couple of pips to get in, you’ll still have 36 or so to cash in.
No, I did not have this plot on Friday yet, but I was certain I wanted to cut all the shorts as close as possible it was to the low made earlier, so I kept closing them by 10 more micro lots every lower / closer print.
I’ll be in the Caribbean till the 6th, so no articles for a while.
The move that is missing here is the backtest of the 50 EMA band.
We have seen 2 cover lows with a capitulatio and a reversal divergence.
The 30-sample daily BB was touched. Wave 4 up can commence from here.
The Hourly is going into a squeeze, there should be 160 pips on the upside from the current close. 1.0950-60 may be the target area without an overshoot.
The first thing to say is that the distance beteen the final left shoulder and head is often 100 pips.
(Will insert more images after work)
The second thing is the daily close that may be tipping you of about what was to happen overnight / the next day.
The lack of re-balancing counter directional move means holding. I am monitoring for 27 pips.
It looks like I also have an E44 filter.
You would normally have a number of daily BB breaches leading up to the flush.
The latest tool in the box is the 30 min 240 sample BB: the daily close 2 sd away is a useful warning.
Blue is the 2 sd band, blue + yellow is the S240 HL2.
Capitulations can be rather large. One way to measure their strength is relative to the previous low/high they just surpassed, but there is also the spike pullback (last fail to close back beyond the 8 EMO this was at 1.0814) and go with the 60-100 pips stats.
Look at this caution of not getting outside the BB for the 3rd time:
Spike 3 still has not been outside the BB.
This is how the embedding neutralizes the opposing momentum:
I’m thinking to change the greens to gray during embedding.
This current move with today’s beat and the reversal divergence speaks of a Wave 3 ending.
A Wave 4 should conclude with a daily RSI2 above 87 reading whilst price would have to be below of what Wave 2 produced (1.1064).
…I need to improve on my targeting. I have projections…
…that I ignore based on lack of counter volatility. What I need to settle in my brain right, that if I got in at the right prices, there is no rush. Target the projection and lock in gains with the protective stops and let the whole thing develop.
I had 25, 26, 27 filled in for targets for a slight undercut (F for Fawed thinking), but could not wait it out as per usual (F for Fawed execution).
For scaling in and sizing I get a BB+ for Bigger Balls next time.
There is definitely something odd going on right now when everyone is trying to be first to assume a crash position. The market makers aren’t famous for handing out free money.
When the market goes deeply oversold, it is unable to carry out a sharp turn, it has to do it in 3 steps with a relapse in the middle which sets up a reversal divergence.
For a kick start low the stoch18 below 9 is too low. On the bright side, this market is turning back up.
The relative location of 3 to the Green River is also interesting. Weren’t these hijackings? Point of view, I give the benefit of the doubt to the Zero not the Aggressor, as the latter steps in front of the current direction.
There’s one more tip.
Evaluate the printing of a reversal-low.
If there is going to be counter directional volatility within say 5 hours (10x 30 min candles) from the new low, you have a usable low. If the market just go sideways after stepping back inside the 30-sample Bollinger, and does not care to cross to the other side of the 8 EMO, then another low would be coming after some consolidation. White ovals.
My car has no engine, stop acting new, I bet you could win.
Zombie eye colors, I’m in love with another song.
Vicious blames….
My life goal is to get my name registered in the Something-something Almanac between Shapiro and Sharapova.
The second Cover high was the Wave 5 up. One of the weakest echos I’ve seen. My thinking is a volatility whip back up to the right shoulder’s hight (1.1035+, could go a bit higher than the 1.1064 echo high as well but I don’t think it would likely not get to the 1.1149 swing high ) before the Wave 1 down.
So my plan would be matching the short holdings around 1.1030 or even earlier if I see 3 failures before that, then building a short holding the higher price gets.
This unraveling of Euro long holdings would have a long long way to go down.
The “dollar peaked” theme on Bloomberg was shining bright inside my ear today. That’s the honey trap.
You would be right to tag along. For 77-90 pips that is.
The direction gets decided by the large speculators by either taking a loss or by reversing their positioning (cross & stay on the new side of 0).
The hedgers don’t get any decision rights.
Their ability to go into a paper draw down without limits guarantees to not be the one having to stop out. They don’t ever blink first.
Once the loss is taken by the speculators, they get to write off those contract-burdens which increases their account size. On top of this they have a steady stream of income from every transaction.
The loss taken thus shows up as a divergence in the price movement and the holding size – this is the starting point of unraveling that goes on until 0 on balance holdings remain in the hand of the speculators.
Other. I need to ditch habbits like closing out core holdings before the 3rd cancellation and develop the habbit of marking them up along with the anchor highs & lows and adding a reminder of 3/60 every time. New virgin level made at 1.0852
Today closing out 2.2 lots of core (hedge) holdings for a total of $16 let me endure a $750 draw down unnecessarily. This is why obeying the count and sticking with the anchor provided direction is a must.
The one yellow is in place, two plums up on the histogram and the 3/60 anchor low would be made.
Hedge shorts, $350 left on the table just by not touching anything today – and most other days.
I got myself paranoid instead of counting to 3.
…anchor low made. There is no better system out there.
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