The first question to ask is where are they compressing volatility?

The answer currently is about 32 pips up from the last swing low. There are another 3 examples above.

The second question is what is my proof for price having turned around?

The answer is none, as there has not been a White or Black Echo print yet.

//// ECHO on the downside
if (Low[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+1)+20*Point 
&& Low[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+1)-370*Point
&& (Open[i]<Close[i] || (i>0 && Low[i-1]>Low[i+1]))
&& High[i+1]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1)
//&& High[i+2]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+2)
&& Low[i+1]<Low[i] 
&& Low[i+1]<(Low[i+2]+20*Point)
&& Low[i+2]<Low[i+3]
&& High[i+3]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+3)
&& Close[i+1]>(Low[i+1]+((High[i+1]-Low[i+1])/3))
&& ExtATRBuffer[i+1]>50
)
{
    ObjectCreate("HOTE"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],Low[i+1]-80*Point);
    ObjectSetText("HOTE"+i,"ECHO", 26, "Impact", clrWhite);     
    if (ExtATRBuffer2[i+1]<50 && (iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+1))<320*Point) 
    ObjectSetText("HOTE"+i,"ECHO (MFI_R)", 26, "Impact", clrGray);  
  

The Gray Echo was a downgrade due to the BB width not reaching at least 32 pips (squeeze-release).

With that said, there is a 3rd hour of selling currently. If this candle closes back up 1/3, the confirmation could be either the following hour closing green or the second candle staying off the low. That would be a white Echo print, and the moratorium line would be re-plotted 10 pips below the new swing low.

---

Achilles Dent: Never, Never Land with the voice of Chester Bennington.

…

We had a severe reaction, but is this move up up yet?

I personally would give the benefit of the doubt of the move down being wave 4 of Wave 3. This would mean two more waves up coming, a wave 5 of Wave 3 and a Wave 5.

---

Album #22 is out now.

…in the meantime everyone’s selling bonds, mostly US bonds.

We are toying around the Overbought Neckline at 1.1050.

If the swing high was made, come next week the price should make it 53+ pips higher before more selling. Use this leverage to hedge.

Currently, nothing is talking about an immediate downside, in fact, there’s an Echo print.

Principles then.

Step #1 Align holdings with the last settled Echo

Take on excess
– beyond S30
– add 3/4 ways
– add outside BB30 1H

Lighten excess into/past the level reached with 3 whole candles outside the BB

Alles Klar, Kommissar?

---

Achilles Dent: Rock Me Prometheus

exhibit a: stall & pullback in front of an important level that is to be taken out with force

exhibit b: the two volatility lines want to converge and they mean it this time

c: you are inside the block where the weekly echo could come from, but there is more room to retrace (purple square)

After watching this video I am convinced we need to regulate AI 🤦‍♂️🤣pic.twitter.com/RWydjISBvv

— Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) August 28, 2024

The market got overtly excited by its own prospects by staying outside the BB for 6 hours+, and is currently returning to the E-9 not seen in 11 days as a Wave 4.

There’s an untested trendline

The last weekly rung, 86 pips up is totally doable.

There is a triple magenta line, but that is showing some slow down (the first magenta is the measuring leg), but what normally happens is that the 2nd peak would become the flagpole of the last bow back.

We are looking at a peak in the range of 1.1233-1.1249. Could the last move up master the swing high in image 1 (1.1275)?

The launch pad should be the SOB.

I know it does not feel like it, but the market is in a hurry here. The rally could be over in 5 hours. It does have 115 pips of potential based on history relative to the low made today (that’s like 1.1262 currently – 13 pips shy).

---

Album #21 is out now.

A wave does not fail on a push, it fails on the Echo.

The Echo is normally making its way from the 8 EMO to the 30-sample BB from the inside. It is 3 hourly candles long. A 3rd candle close to the upper band closing 1/3 down is the Echo failing. At times it does not reach the BB as you can see on the last image. The wick back of the range candle was the “get me out, I missed the turn”.

//// ECHO
if (High[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)-20*Point 
&& High[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)+190*Point
&& Open[i]>Close[i]
&& Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1)
&& Low[i+2]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+2)
&& High[i+1]>High[i] && High[i+1]>High[i+2] && High[i+2]>High[i+3]
&& Low[i+3]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+3) && Close[i+1]<(High[i+1]-((High[i+1]-Low[i+1])/3)))
{
    ObjectCreate("HOTE"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],High[i+1]+150*Point);
    ObjectSetText("HOTE"+i,"ECHO", 26, "Impact", clrWhite);     
}


//// BB ECHO
if (High[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)-20*Point 
&& High[i+1]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1)+190*Point
&& Open[i]>Close[i]
&& Low[i]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i)
&& Close[i+2]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+2)
&& High[i+1]>High[i] && High[i+1]>High[i+2] && High[i+2]>High[i+3]
&& Open[i+3]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+3) && Close[i+1]<(High[i+1]-((High[i+1]-Low[i+1])/3)))
{
    ObjectCreate("HOTE"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+1],High[i+1]+90*Point);
    ObjectSetText("HOTE"+i,"ECHO", 26, "Impact", clrBlack);     
}

Achilles Dent: Dodge The Caravan

Achilles Dent: King What May

How would you know that this Wave 3 up is over, and you are in a Wave 4 correction?

The answer is Fractal Evaluation.

You need a Fractal outside the 30-sample BB and then count to 4 and look at the location of that candle relative to the BB and the 8 EMO.

The following 2 pictures show N (meaning Neutral with a Green tinge for being above the 9D EMA). The three quarters is a reminder that even during questionable times there should be a move 3/4 way up to the upper BB as a relatively safe exit.

The last example is how Wave 2 down behaved.

The N¾ had its move to 3/4 ways and even poked out above the upper BB before another leg down which pierced below the municipal trench (E207L). The swing low in front of the N was violated.

Then, there was a Green arrow up – fractal evaluation.

//// fractal + 4 evaluator downside
if (Low[i+4]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i+4) && iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i+4) && (iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i)-iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))>400*Point)
{
    ObjectCreate("HOT"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],Low[i]-90*Point);
    ObjectSetText("HOT"+i,"N-¾", 26, "Impact", clrGreen);
    if (Low[i]<iMA(symbol,0,356,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_MEDIAN,i))       ObjectSetText("HOT"+i,"N-¾", 16, "Impact", clrMagenta);
  
    if (High[i]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i) && Open[i]>Close[i]) ObjectSetText("HOT"+i,CharToStr(234), 26, "Wingdings", clrRed);
     if (Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i)-20*Point && Open[i]<Close[i] && ExtATRBuffer2[i]>25 && (ExtATRBuffer2[i]<41 || ExtATRBuffer2[i]>110)) ObjectSetText("HOT"+i,CharToStr(233), 26, "Wingdings", clrGreen);  
}

The first deeper correction was brought on by a gray volatility divergence / last effort print.

For the gray divergence in general you are looking for an hourly fractal candle (200 sample new high) that closes back down by 1/3. It is important that it would take 2 more candles to close below the 8 EMO.

The last effort decline is a charge on the 30-sample BB that gets almost missed and the next candle makes a low below the 8EMO (red) or the following does (yellow).

The correction itself got down to S3. This ABC move had an 8&8 red dot symmetry.

The yellow volatility compression divergences have been useless. The reason is that the price can get back below the 8EMO within 2 hours. This is not enough separation.

This correction had a 5&5 red dot symmetry.

In both cases, the correction low and the end of wave red counts were in different locations.

With this rally, there has been one gray divergence. The first peak did not become a divergence, as it was not a fractal print.

What was the same in both highs is the re-connect with the 8 EMO before the last push 20, 40 pips higher. What’s missing first then?

The good news is that the first gray divergence should prompt the reunion with the magenta, where you could overhedge for a new high 8-26 pips beyond 1.12

Could see a quick drop / a prolonged sideways move or a combination.

1.1175 – three times out.

They purchased the first E-level dip.

There should be a higher high printing next week and for a Swing High print, the close would have to be 91 pips below the most recent peak.

What should follow after that is a Swing Low that would have to be at least 266 pips below.

This is why the 1.10 support calls are off. A wave 4 down could stop at the S3 cca 1.11 and that’s about where the volatility lines should converge.

The E-9 is coasting above 1.1080 right now, and the dilated 30-min E-414 Band to E-712 (43 pips wide) is going to have to prove impossible to cross if the swing high isn’t for real.

So, 1.1090-1.1060 for a Wave 4 low or below 1.0940 for a new swing low.

Interestingly the weekly Push plots at 1.1225, echo at 1.1310

The purple square is the expectation of the pullback between the push and the echo.

A Jackson hole script.

The price is currently at the SOB.

I don’t expect it to break without a drop first.

I believe that the algos are going to make the price up and down with every second sentence.

If the SOB breaks, there is 70-86 pips from yesterday’s low as a last leg up. The high is in the scope, up to 1.1194 nothing would be out of ordinary.

I have the most aggressive MF at the desk at the broker, he pushed up the spread to 120 points last night as a warmup, so I have no choice but to be fully hedged for this one.