Funny how this Murphy works. I did that top-down analysis and stopped before the 15-minute chart.

OIt was there in White and Red: sell continuation at 1.0894 (if no white rabbit down – there wasn’t).

I need to go back to start looking at energy readings again.

There was a reason to having the CI be cut at 64: it represents an extra high charge.

The D-32 was clearly showing that this was still the same wave with the drip above (the red line was even glowing in that section – have to adjust the hue). There was the hotel-bell icon for the impending major break. The MFR fresh line only means that having reached the Gray Box, the market isn’t going to stop until it prints a new Money Flow Reversal zone and would have to walk into one of the lines at the minimum before it would reverse, which does not mean all that much at this point, as the new zone is going to print on the open.

The old lines start at 1.07867, but we want to see the new ones here.

I should start referring to the Break Down and Break Up levels as temper levels to remind myself that they are targets.

So, what is it like to trade on a Pro-Ecn? It is good. Half the cost. The spread caps out at around 15 pips versus 20 earlier, so about 20% better. The swap is the same.

How is the competition going?

I first heard about the Robbins Cup along with the ICT clown’s deeds.

I use it as a reference for myself. I made $3116.87 last week on closed-out trades bringing the yearly percentage to 135.7% which keeps me in the game for sure. A bit bitter about the missed opportunity, others may have utilized it – the update is always delayed.

I was hoping for the Japanese to win – and upon beating him, posting on the blog: if anyone knows this guy, give him my address to forward the trophy to. Don’t send any sushi, I can’t stand seafood. Also, a sepuku isn’t necessary, it is enough to admit defeat.

I don’t have any jokes at hand for the American.

Every timeframe says the same thing.

The Monthly Vwap oscillator goes negative at major swing highs. The current sideways block is a transiting phase, not a top.

For a weekly reversal you need a week with a higher high and at least a close-back by 45 pips.

The daily chart just made a CoverLow 2 days back, which is a dip and comeback from the other side of the E-9.

The stochastic is becoming embedded (Chartreuse).

As I mentioned before, a top does not occur during a Squeeze, which actually has become stronger.

The 2.8x stretch line (white) is now reaching the top of the resistance zone.

The closer half of the Energy Bands is 1.0968-1.0987. That’s where the next exhaustion could occur within 1 day.

For a shaded powder box to print, the price would have to best the Bumper Line at 1.0994.

The hourly chart flipped back to positive due to a 72-hour unability to tag the lower Safety line (0.28).

The white squares are the Early Bird Special entry zone. The scissors are widening with the E-103 above the S-356.

The volatility compression divergence was a gray one, which normally triggers an 88+ pips correction, which would mean 1.0828 – this quick dip could still happen, but the weekly close would probably still be within 40 pips from the weekly high. The Green line would have to go beyond 166 (105 currently – that’s at least 60 pips more) before a top could set a yellow divergence by closing back below the 8-EMO in the following hour of the peak’s capitulation-thrust.

The 30-min says that if 1.0941 gets hit, there will be no stopping before 1.0977.

A peak could plausibly reach to 1.1028-1.1038.

A heads up for a turn that may be imminent.

These are the two sides of the volatility coin.

 ExtATRBuffer[i]= -1*(iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,sample-1,i+1))-Low[i])*-10000;
 ExtATRBuffer2[i]=(High[i]-iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,sample-1,i+1)))*10000;

ExtAtrBuffer is the Red Plot, figuring the maximum distance achieved from the 200-sample hourly Highest High.

ExtAtrBuffer2 is the Green Plot, figuring the maximum distance achieved from the 200-sample hourly Lowest Low.

The volatility compression anchor is a plausible place from where the volatility compression divergence may arrive from resulting in a full turn. The presence of this compression anchor is a requirement for a 3-point turn to take place.

The vertical lines are the visual highlights for these plausible places in real time.

///Volatility Compression Anchor For A Turn Down
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]<10 && (ExtATRBuffer2[i]>150 || Low[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i))) {
      ObjectCreate("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,indicator_window, Time[i], 0);
      ObjectSet("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrMistyRose);
      ObjectSet("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);
      ObjectSet("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
}

///Volatility Compression Anchor For A Turn Up
if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]<3 && (ExtATRBuffer[i]>166 || High[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)) && Close[i]>Low[i]+10*Point && i>0 
&& High[i-1]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i-1)
) {
      ObjectCreate("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJ_VLINE,indicator_window, Time[i], 0);
      ObjectSet("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPaleGreen);
      ObjectSet("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,3);
      ObjectSet("LOTUS"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
}

An anchor may have just printed. Caution, a sharp turn is a possibility.

Achilles Dent: To Love Sometimes

Some stuff that I’m finding in the interim.

First of all, there is a use to have a marker at certain “stretches” on the ramping side of the volatility, not only the compressed side.

Figure 1:

The EurUsd is a likely sell upon the 200-sample long-side stretch exceeding 166 pips.

I spotted this earlier, and the plot is now adjusted to 165.5.

///Exit Conditon Up #3

if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]>165.5
)
   {
      ObjectCreate("Firstpulls"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TREND, 0,  Time[i+2], High[i]+200*Point, Time[i], High [i]);
                     ObjectSetInteger(0,"Firstpulls"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrRed);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpulls"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpulls"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpulls"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,6);   
   }

At the same time, the downside can experience a much larger ramp (based on recent history).

The Teal tripper is at 266.

The concept of taking back 2 fractals comes next. This means 2 hourly fractals but a failure before the 3rd.

The third one of such calls (after having gone beyond the 166-line) only managed to take back 1 fractal before proceeding lower. There is a filter eliminating a Take Back 2 Fractals call if the low gets taken out in the next 5 hours, so there were some additional calls that the paint did not manage to dry on.

This brings us to the bear case at the current standing.

It took back 2 fractals, but failed before the 3rd.

There is one problem though. There is no proper top in place. The last Yellow Flip Over was at that 266 stretch on the downside. The direction remains up.

There is no top that is made with a BB squeeze (blue dots) or when the market is lulling at rest right next to the Daily E-9. The final leg, #7 (from the low) should experience a stretch condition of 2.8x from the Mean, which is the white line above.

I would be looking for a possible sell in the 1.0930-1.0965 zone.

Album #8

& blow away.

Legendary investors? What does stockcircle say?

I highlighted 1-year performance with Green and 10-year performance with Yellow.

Rated: incarcerated

What should be obvious is that there are a lot of urban legends out there. Just because an Australian YouTuber keeps on repeating that Stanley Druckenmiller has been making 34% per year for the last 30 years, that does not make it true. Nor do unverified populist articles that sing into existence a 2.6 Billion Dollar gain on a single trade by Bill Ackman – just look at the portfolio percentage gains below. What is an extra billion between newscasters?!

Where is the 2.6 billion jump at?

Compounding is another thing people like to throw in for good measure, and it may or may not be true, but certainly sounds awesome. Did I mention Einstein?

I do appreciate that Millions or even Billions are awfully hard to make high percentages with. For one, you cannot use an Offshore Forex Broker for trading, that is for sure. Yet, I had to get you to start rethinking whom you idolize, and what are you trying to learn/copy.

You can actually piss me off with the word, portfolio. Somebody once asked about my portfolio changes during the pandemic. I do not have a portfolio! – I responded. Nor is opening put spreads for 40 days and closing them in 20 should be considered one, Felix – an ex investment banker should know that.

The Druck has one, you can see his net worth dropping 1.5 billion in 2021.

Investing has a lot less prospect than trading, particularly currency trading. You will need good data, tremendous insight, insider info, and to play in rigged ways (i.e. move the market yourself or swim with the black pools) to shine at all. The bottom line is that a trader does not have to commit unethical, borderline criminal acts for results that would put investors to shame. It is no secret that I’m going for the 10-year percentage of Druck, and ultimately a 10-100x that is possible to achieve, but you are still an idiot for experimenting with crypto.

Having great investment results and playing nice don’t go hand in hand. The Marewick Of Wall Street always adds the pronoun “snake” before Bill Ackman, and I remember how passionately Duch hated Warren Buffett.

As a trader, there are ways to act dirty, i.e. spoofing, but you may not need anything that the FBI would incarcerate you for.

After talking down investing, here is some fuel for folk tales to dance to…

As for trading, I could never figure out what people are doing trading bitcoin futures on USDT basis, which is a token issued by a company that has filed for bankruptcy.

Bonus Shapiro.

Endo the Mayo.

Truth be told, it isn’t true that no one ever saw any potential in me. My last supervisor said to me once: you’re gonna be a billionaire and you are gonna make me a millionaire. My current supervisor? He said he was going to start calling me Quincy Jones.

It’s either that or I would have to retire on a monthly 250 GBP pension that is good enough for 1/5th of my recurring living expenses.

My 7th AI Album.

If I had a business card, now I could have it say: Maintenance Engineer – Professional Trader – AI Music Producer.

I never had one. I was never important enough to have one. What would I have put on it?

When I was 41, having lost everything for the 3rd time, starting from scratch in a 4th country, Ionut told me at the Pullman Hotel: you must be the best English-speaking kitchen porter ever! – I guess that was business card worthy, but then again, who would I give one to?

Belmont (South San Francisco), 2001.

This was my very first job at the tender age of 28 when I had to get up in the morning and perform physical feats without questions, risking my health for money. In short, employment. All I had to do for the privilege was move to America and stop being vegetarian. I worked for a Persian guy who could not say “wörk”, only work just like the marewick of Wall Street can’t.

Ah, competition! I welcome that.

I would be in 3rd place currently with 125%, but the year is young & I have 9 more Aces up my sleeve.

---

Of course, I traded a bit more after this post, so these are the final numbers for May 2024.

I like the 350 longs and 349 shorts combo. 35.3% was the final gain.

What you are anticipating here is one of 3 different outcomes.

Since further volatility compression is not likely, your volatility divergence anchor point is in place.

(The orange box was an at market continuation sell marker.)

If the next hour does not make a new low, a fractal print is halfway made. For a Gellow, final volatility divergence you would need the next hour to close back above the hourly 8 EMO. If it does not, but one of the following candles do, the divergence would be Gray, which would prompt a correction in excess of 88 pips up. This means a 66% chance with all the current unknowns for a minimum move up from the current low by 90 pips.

The money flow low made a money flow reversal zone, which is another way of taking notice of an impending reversal.

Let’s pink about this.

If I want to secure size, I need an auto routine to both open and close positions for me.

Which is more important?

Closing, exiting, going risk-free.

So here’s this condition that means pure doom along with a volatility divergence (yellow connector),

means a continuation high just below the S-356

what does it mean above the S-356, but without the final volatility divergence?

My first guess would be: deep correction to F2++ to F3-. Possibly a wave 2 of a Wave.

if (High[i+1]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_UPPER,i+1) && High[i+1]>High[i+2] && High[i]<High[i+1]
   && Close[i]<iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i) && Close[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,8,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_OPEN,i+1)
)
   {
      ObjectCreate("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0,  Time[i+4], High[i+1], Time[i], Low[i]);
       if (Low[i+1]>iMA(symbol,0,207,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_LOW,i+1)) {ObjectSetInteger(0,"Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrPink);
                     ObjectCreate("POT"+i,OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i+3],(High[i+1]+Low[i])/2+60*Point);
        ObjectSetText("POT"+i, "F2++", 26, "Impact", clrBlack);
                     }

Yes, this would mean that a brutal wave 3 of Wave 3 is coming up next.

That was an excessive, 100% money flow print. They are getting punished for a day whilst the brokers get to charge triple swap on the stuck Euro longs.

F2++ = 1.0816, F3- = 1.0798

After a false start, the market hammered out a low at the S-356 (H).

Blue ovals: support hammers. There is constructive money flow currently.

The daily chart has found Guns in the Chartreuse embedding period and pulled back.

The RSI2 was in the magenta during the day but closed way back up from it. The next move up is to find the Ammo.

I just coded these few lines that I’ve been wanting as a plot.

Do you see the W made around the support level? Everything is pointing higher.

The idea of the First pullback is a streak that is 36+ pips long, the same color, and a continuation is warranted – with the caveat of being above the municipal trench the highlight becomes the 20-sample high instead.

 if (Open[i]>Close[i] && iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,2,i))==iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,20,i)) && (
   (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i+2) && Open[i+1]<Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]<Close[i+2] && High[i+1]-Low[i+1]>360*Point)
   || (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i+3) && Open[i+1]<Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]<Close[i+2] && Open[i+3]<Close[i+3] && High[i+1]-Low[i+3]>360*Point)
   || (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i+4) && Open[i+1]<Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]<Close[i+2] && Open[i+3]<Close[i+3] && Open[i+4]<Close[i+4] && High[i+1]-Low[i+4]>360*Point)
   || (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i+5) && Open[i+1]<Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]<Close[i+2] && Open[i+3]<Close[i+3] && Open[i+4]<Close[i+4] && Open[i+5]<Close[i+5] && High[i+1]-Low[i+5]>360*Point && Low[i+4]<Low[i+3])
    ))
   {
      ObjectCreate("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0,  Time[i+2], High[i], Time[i], Low[i]);
                     ObjectSetInteger(0,"Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrChartreuse);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,5);   
   }


   if (Open[i]<Close[i] && iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i))==iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,20,i)) && (
   (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i+2) && Open[i+1]>Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]>Close[i+2] && High[i+1]-Low[i+1]>360*Point)
   || (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i+3) && Open[i+1]>Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]>Close[i+2] && Open[i+3]>Close[i+3] && High[i+3]-Low[i+1]>360*Point)
   || (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i+4) && Open[i+1]>Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]>Close[i+2] && Open[i+3]>Close[i+3] && Open[i+4]>Close[i+4] && High[i+4]-Low[i+1]>360*Point)
   || (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i+5) && Open[i+1]>Close[i+1] && Open[i+2]>Close[i+2] && Open[i+3]>Close[i+3] && Open[i+4]>Close[i+4] && Open[i+5]>Close[i+5] && High[i+5]-Low[i+1]>360*Point && High[i+4]>High[i+3])
    ))
   {
      if (Close[i]>iMA(symbol,0,207,0,MODE_EMA,PRICE_LOW,i)-100*Point) ObjectCreate("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0,  Time[i+10], iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,20,i)), Time[i], iLow(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,20,i)));
      else ObjectCreate("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_RECTANGLE, 0,  Time[i+2], High[i], Time[i], Low[i]);
      
                     ObjectSetInteger(0,"Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_COLOR,clrTomato);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_BACK,1);
                     ObjectSet("Firstpull"+IntegerToString(i),OBJPROP_WIDTH,5);   
   }

---

I hope you like spaghetti Western.

Confidential Shadows

So, the test of the S-356 is still making us wait.

I had to think for a second about what meant what again. The !10 means the 10th hour (count 10 blues) the oh stands for OverHedge, and the buystop is the high of the 10th hourly candle and is to ensure that you get your required volume. The blue square is a neutral print here.

Also, it would be nice to see Full Discharge (F) in a green color below the S-356.

Not sure how anyone would figure cheats like a “False Start” without using indicators.

I was explaining this in the morning real-time to a coworker: the candles weren’t rushing away from the False Start low (Stochastic precedes the Money Flow – it’s the wrong way around) and so I was expecting a lower low still to grab some extra liquidity.

By the way, the market is still embedded and this move down may just be a fake out.

1.0807 keeps on showing up, and I believe we could see it print.

---

AI is my guitarist.

Time is not in favour of the dollar long here, but S2 would be hit before we proceed higher.

I will scale into a long starting 1.0818

There could be a major bottom forming around the S-356 with 3 Full Discharge prints in quick succession.

The S-356 is at 1.0790 & rising.

Now, about specializing.

I used to work for a guy in California. His net worth was 42 million usd when I left in 2012.

He used to look at screwdrivers with variable tips in a pity. He would always say: that is not a tool.

Rene is still young. He is a better coder than me, but not a better programmer.

He had his best month ever, running different strategies on multiple instruments. I have merely started my hybrid trading on Eur/Usd.

His started with his setup on the 21st of March. He rolls with the industry ideas that a lot of people seem to embrace, and provides plenty for the broker. He believes in a profit factor of 1.2 -1.3 as a key to succes.

He picked an arbitrary 4-week period from the 21st of April to the 19th of May to claim a 12-k gain, which was a come back from a 36% draw down loss, so currently he has 41% gains – very good for 2 months.

In comparison he came really close to my 55% performance for the same period, but fell way behind from the 35% profit factor. His aspiration for ruling in a chaos would ultimately result in weak performance

My points are: forward testing is the real thing. You do not make a break out routine and try it on different instruments, you make one with one particular instrument’s statistics in mind.

---

My 5th AI album is out.

year 2024 below