The Hewlett Letter

Below: I don’t know how this looks to you with the 3 attacks on the skid rock support, but to me it looks like an accumulation. EOD may has printed the “root”.

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Last Weekly Pro volume was just above 1.16, and nothing since. If this is an ABC correction up, it would imply A=C, and this would put price 1580 pips higher by the end, which is 1.32, the pivot/median weekly level on the comfort levels.

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The daily is particularly interesting, for it was too early to print another fractal on Friday. One of my next topics would be the letter “h”, when I get around to it. Basically you cannot successfully take out the fresh, terminal high/low within 5 samples.

The daily shows the need for more consolidation. 5 waves were spent. If you look at the triple low in line with the blue skid mark, it is a very similar low to what we just printed on the 30 min with the check marks. So, you are not going to get an immediate new high, but a lift off and a don’t look back. Check the cyan shaded pro volume locations: it looks like the root of the 3rd set of the triple waves.

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1H comes back with an interesting result: there is a pro volume doji, that they may be protecting on every fall back, which may result in a gap up on Sunday.

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If not, they still have 2 more entries lower, one at the overbought comfort level (black), and one just below it, as shown on the 30 min. Check the guidance numbers on the next one as well:

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The momentum is heavily negative as well, which means a buy in an uptrend. Above 1.2250 you will have the 4h pivot taken out, and do not fight this. It would want up.

Since the pullback was larger than 25% and smaller than 40%, you would have to have 2 more days pass buy below the high of 1.2323 before you can decisively take it out. A try before that would fail back down. (With a deep pullback, you can rush things, and clear the obstacle on the 4th sample.)

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I use the Fib as a percentage tool. I am looking for 25, 40 percent, just as I said. I do not believe in the notion of the “big boys have Fibonacci built in their tools”, for the big boys have 1 tool: a dial button on the phone.

One suicid way of taking out the high in 2 days would be to undercut the low of 1.2163, reverse the same day, and rally through the high on the next.  I am not suggesting that this would happen, and currently am positioned against it. Can you, with the knowledge just gained, tell me why the break of 1.2163 would be doomed to a failure?

 

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Three reds pushing on the previous week’s high.

Everyone can see this:

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Who can see this?

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