If You Were an Institution…

…what would you be buying?

I don’t know about you, but I would be buying at 90% discount.

90% discount is the deeply oversold level = 10% on the comfort levels.

Why not at 95%? Because 5% from the low almost all players are under water and the easier play is the lower low (path of least resistance) to squeeze them beyond their tolerance.

To maximize your odds, one final touch is to lag in into the keel back to the desired level. Remember, you need to accumulate gradually, and your price would be an average of all the buys.


1. Not to immediately move the markets.

2. To be able to accumulate the most possible volume.

Institutions do not need much fine tuning beyond the commitment to the percentage levels, but for you a tell tale of their presence is

  1. Trending, peak trending-exhaustion
  2. Short term wave counting becomes useless

Your best tools for spotting them therefore are

  1. Consolidation indicator (CI) sample size 7
  2. Monitoring for peak trending

I talk of peak peak trending after the 4th open above overbought / below oversold.

During peak trending the trend can turn on itself (i.e. wedge), there may not be a thrust / beat occurring.

As far as institutions go, they don’t care about wave counts, they care about the numbers and they would be holding until the trade would be feasible to let go of.

What does this mean on the gauge? They would roll in and out on a 15% span at the very minimum to have an average of a 10% move. Again, the measurement is the long term range.

They would need to get buyers interested, so they would utilize the “out of oversold” level for the roll out. That is, if they do not have longer term goals with the currency – if they do, then we are talking 30%, 50% and 70% travel holdings. They might let the price drop to their desired level multiple times if they need to purchase more.

Rinse and repeat.

Wave 1: Smart Money Buys

Wave 3: Institutions Buy

Wave 5: the Retail Buys

PKTE= peak trending exhaustion