If I know so much more about the subject than anyone else, how can I still perform poorly?
Trading is hard. You need to have the right definitions for everything and noone can tell you about what even needs defining.
This is why I am in the market 92% of the time all the time.
No, I did not get a margin call, nor did I have to top up the margin. I let down myself by disregarding the everybody’s long sentiment, falling in love with the idea of a move back to the Keltinger band first for a major crash, thus implanting the wrong fears on top of rolling out and deleting hedge orders amid confused undefined conditions. One better not play like that.
To get things back under control, steps have to be taken.
Definitions are to be put right.
Embedded market: 3 weeks spent over 75 or below 25 by the measurement of 18-sample 3 delay D line. No daily or other metric to interfere with this.
The process of mbedding neutralizes the initial toxic effects of the overbought/oversold condition – the new environment. It is like a diver who has to equalise the inner and outer pressure having arrived at a new depth.
The most important puzzle piece is black and white hedge entry and exit definitions if you have holdings.
Must hedge 10+2 pips beyond the first M-axis attempt drawn fractal.
Must hedge upon a violaing close on the wrong side of the M-axis, 2-pips beyond the hourly low/high printed.
Hedge exits are – 2FS oversold at 2nd green/ red zone / 2-std (14 sample) window envelope encounter with the same color combo.
For further uniformisation, the 3 other stochastic measurements should be more or less identical across time frames: the Comfort levels alway derive the range made out of 4H samples regardless of the plotted time frame, and the Crack Ho is a 60-sample 3 delay lo/hi hourly stochastic D (120 sample on 30-min, 15 sample on 4H), the 9-sample 3 delay hi/lo hourly stochastic D for a long term/ medium term / short term feel. The 60 & 9 as a pair can bring attention to low risk continuation locations where the move far appart whilst the 60 is staying low / high.
The 2x fluctuation size displacement (overbought / oversold neckline for the day) is always calculated from 4H consolidation levels derived from a 7-sample CI reading and this would serve as a better substitute during the embedding phase versus the 15-min ATR projections as the volatility changes become less linear.
The main tool becomes the quarter lines: the 15%, the 50% displacements of last week’s range and a 3-rd zone can start at the window envelope.
Here is where the double clutching / 2x effect becomes visible and by now I have implemented the “push” function (open palm – push away the mountain) to bring attention to a move that has completely crossed over zone 2 (the 15-50% segment). Be like water.
Look at how only every second hit of the buy zone matters. The week after the push week there is a good opportunity to add / re-enter with the second settlement in mind.
Tips & tricks
I gave away a good trick in my Keltinger Moat article.
Love kills & volatility builds.
Even the most notorious move is not likely to be lent more than 12 legs.
The more thinly traded / scatteted the order flow, the longer price can travel in an undisturbed fashion until it finally runs out of rope.
Leg 10-12 are likely going to start from beyond the 121 EMA on the hourly (a clue should had been failing to carry out a proper mean reversion). 7-9 are from beyond E-89 and the first and second trifecta are expected to come from beyond the closer end of the E-16 band and from beyond E-32.
So yes, Luka I think you have seen all 12 legs.
& a known sequence of events…
WEEKLY embedded to the upside, E-21 is a buy for 280+ pips or to the window envelope
WEEKLY embedded to the upside, a violation of the last week’s buy zone before the E-21 is a counter trade buy for at least 70 pips or to the window envelope
WEEKLY embedded to the downside, E-21 is a sell for 280+ pips or to the window envelope
WEEKLY embedded to the downside, a violation of the last week’s sell zone before the E-21 is a counter trade sell for at least 70 pips or to the window envelope
2nd settlements closing back outside the box are a counter trend trade back to one of the continuation zones: E-21 / last week’s catch zone
On a break/push of a smiley target the window envelope