Bare Naked Notes

In a Bare market below Envelope 1 only Impulsive bottoms can trigger a counter directional rally that would last multiple days and would achieve in excess of a 100 pips from the recent low.

I use 3.5 and 5.55 for the other two displacements.

The first, red bottom example managed to start a rally that had multiple legs (3), of which the first one performed 320+ pips in order to carry out a kiss goodbye move to the dashed line.

Red bottom = 216 sample hourly lower low trigger leg.

On a close up, this is what went down.

The initial Max Vol move off of the divergent leg of the impulse bottom the RSI2 made only 1 dip below 12.5 for a continuation divergence.

The next counter move came off of a yellow impulse bottom.

The yellow bottom is an “inside bottom” the trigger leg was not a 216-sample hourly lower low itself.

It had a clear, 5-wave looks with RSI2 only dipping below 12.5 at the end of Wave 2 and Wave 4.

Interestingly, the top itself was a correction / continuation high. The rally length was 176 pips.

The current complex bottom had a red impulse low that was itself an inside leg, but the trigger leg had 216 empty hours before it.

There was a re-embedding of the 18-sample stochastic for another move down that made another inside impulse low. Blowing past the cover low would mean a capitulation. 171 pips.

This 153-pip move up was a serious labor. RSI2 goes too deep on this timeframe. By S20 I meant S30.

On the 4-Hour the RSI2 picture looks clean, but the pattern seems to be a broadening formation where the #2 low is lower than the trigger low and the #4 is lower still.

Based on this, leg 5 is proposed to be disappointing in length, yet it could also trigger a break-out at the white-out. Or it could be the place to pull on the toilet-chain.

Bare Market Ladies

If you had to ask, this was another inside, yellow impulse bottom. My routines did not pick it up because the close below exceeded 2 pips (7) and I’m looking for a range of 14 not 15 by standard.

(with those two temporary changes the plot would appear)

The likelihood is that the 1.0470 low is gonna get undercut as well if the lower trendline gets violated. Not sure by how much, could be anything from 1.0444 (projeced distance on the left in green) to almost 1.04.

The easiest market can be for you the hardest when you don’t know what the rules are.