OK. Grab some adult beverage & let’s go. We’ll be looking at counter moves and terminal waves.

If you look at the big picture, the trend is up – despite of the 170-pip sell-off in the last 2 days.

See, the volume & momentum is still green, because the 18-sample stochastic hasn’t been taken to the extreme, because the pro volume did not happen with an RSI2 below 40, and the RSI2 was only temporarily in the “Enough To Turn” field yesterday, but not by the settlement. Kudos for the bears to be able to capitalize in on this window of opportunity in a big way.

With all this said, there are counter moves in every directional move, as you can see by the white highlights below:

These moves in case of this trading instrument cap out around 210-220 pips, but the 90, 130 and 170 numbers I picked due to wanting to get a fill, and the spacing is an intentional 40 pips. With me so far?

Normally after the green laser beam (first image) price would conquer the 20 SMA within 3 days and would challenge the E44 in 6. After 7 the move may be considered long in the tooth. Of course this run up felt like a not normal, lackluster rally.

Now, the following things we are learning together.

The cyan lines are the “Zero to Zero” range around the last consolidation weight.

After the “end of wave” print of 45, there was a back test of this level arriving at a zero print. This we’re going to call “taking a stand”.

What we are trying to figure out here is this flat-top-drop (trademark of Oscar Carbonara) of 3 domes at 1.06 why and how are still calling for a house on the peak.

As we gathered, the move can still be a counter move within the wave for a bit longer. What went wrong on the way down at the potential terminal area of growth (50% extra) is that the price went extra strong and violated the 60% or the 61.8314432% if you have this kind of a fetish.

As you can spot on the first image, the 170 pips discount comes in at 1.0444 and we are yo-yoing around the terminal 50%. I’m thinking the continuation divergence (higher low) is very close, especially if there would be no closes below the 60%.

Can’t afford music today 🙂 well, ok maybe 1

////zero up
   if (High[i]>NBEU[i] && High[i+2]<NBEU[i+2] && High[i+1]<NBEU[i+1] && High[i-1]<NBEU[i-1] && Close[i]<NBEU[i] &&  NBEU[i]!=EMPTY_VALUE){
        ObjectCreate("Obellix"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], High[i]+50*Point); 
     ObjectSetText("Obellix"+IntegerToString(i), CharToStr(77), 38, "Wingdings", clrRed);
      ObjectCreate("Targeted"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],NBED[i]-((NBEU[i]-NBED[i])/10*4.5)+50*Point );  
                ObjectSetText("Targeted"+IntegerToString(i), "TGT: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(NBED[i]-((NBEU[i]-NBED[i])/10*4.5),4),4), 16, "Arial Black",  clrPurple);
   }
   
////zero dn   
      if (Low[i]<NBED[i] && Close[i+1]>NBED[i+1] && Low[i-1]>Low[i]  && Low[i+1]>Low[i] && Close[i]>NBED[i] &&  NBED[i]!=EMPTY_VALUE){
        ObjectCreate("Obellix"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]+80*Point); 
     ObjectSetText("Obellix"+IntegerToString(i), CharToStr(77), 38, "Wingdings", clrDarkGreen);
      ObjectCreate("Targeted"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],NBEU[i]+((NBEU[i]-NBED[i])/10*4.5)+50*Point );  
                ObjectSetText("Targeted"+IntegerToString(i), "TGT: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(NBEU[i]+((NBEU[i]-NBED[i])/10*4.5),4),4), 16, "Arial Black",  clrPurple);
   }
////-45 dn
 if (Low[i]<NBED[i]-340*Point  && Close[i+1]>NBED[i+1]-340*Point && Low[i-1]>Low[i]   && Low[i+1]>Low[i] && Close[i]>NBED[i]-340*Point &&  NBED[i]!=EMPTY_VALUE){
        ObjectCreate("Obellix"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i], Low[i]+80*Point); 
     ObjectSetText("Obellix"+IntegerToString(i), CharToStr(77), 38, "Wingdings", clrGreen);
      ObjectCreate("Targeted"+IntegerToString(i), OBJ_TEXT, 0, Time[i],NBEU[i]+100*Point+50*Point );  
                ObjectSetText("Targeted"+IntegerToString(i), "TGT: "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(NBEU[i]+100*Point,4),4), 16, "Arial Black",  clrPurple);
   }
      

The 14-sample window envelope is at 1.0433

This is an oversold, but not embedded weekly bear market. Oversold by itself does not attract new money. Pros target either the daily Bollinger Band or a Weekly Window Envelope to exit (whichever is more reasonable.)