So this was the setup:
The -70 and the -80 are testament to the high volatility at hand.
The OB / 0 range once broken is the play.
I have come to accept that direction can be turned without the daily 18-sample Stoch going to extreme.
Now the momentum flips back down after 8 days of not being able to touch the E-44.
The difference between the bottom example and the current one was the momentum.
///fizzle out if (High[i+8]<E44[i+8] && High[i+7]<E44[i+7] && High[i+6]<E44[i+6] && High[i+5]<E44[i+5] && High[i+4]<E44[i+4] && High[i+3]<E44[i+3] && High[i+2]<E44[i+2] && High[i+1]<E44[i+1] && High[i]<E44[i] && cap[i+8]>0 && cap[i+7]>0 && cap[i+6]>0 && cap[i+5]>0 && cap[i+4]>0 && cap[i+3]>0 && cap[i+2]>0 && cap[i+1]>0) cap[i]=-1;
The outcome in the bottom example was +300.
Since the parenting range is counted from 0 to 100, -200 is the equivalent of +300 for distance.
The initial move – due to its velocity – made projections for itself and already filled the first one.
In terms of what should happen now, the ideas derived from the prior example are as follows:
You should see a strong counter move that would not stop until the 15-minute 48-sample CI is back above 53 – and even then it would likely go to the future opposite “Zero” line which is going to be 36 pips higher than the consolidation mean itself. Time to find some available Choppiness indicator.
From there would come the next leg down and – see the bottom of the first image again, you should see up to 4 different legs down, one or two reaching to 30% on the opposite end, one making a left shoulder by achieving 45-65% and finally the touch of the Zero on the lower end would mean the head / longer term holding buy. The next left shoulder down may take out the low being made today. Just look at the bottom half of the first image and mirror everything.
It was certainly dumb of me thinking that the trendline made by three recent daily lows was anything more than a setup.
Unrelenting hammering at the Guard Rail was not going to let price to return to the mean.