Price has been spending too much time above the E-207 Band.
Now, the distance between the 207 Low and 712 Median is about 34 pips. This is bad news for the bears, as a 26+ pips wide river would usually be too big to cross. See the appearing support in the shape of the green fill.
The evolution on my side is better calibration, new auto targeting exits, new thinking & new behavior.
It has no name, but it is based on the Axel S system, I just replaced the lead signal to the 8 Hour EMO and opted for a 15-min chart.
A yellow adjoining a senior uptrend (more than 40 hours of green) is an exension, by no means is a reversal. I’ll figure some implementation.
This was a not-so-obvious 5-wave structure up, buy you could had known when to enter for a Wave 5 if you knew what to look for.
Wave 4 ended when it set an RSI2 continuation divergence relative to the Wave 2.
But where would you expect the Wave 5 to end?
Time to discuss my take on the Risk Range.
I did not care to take on someone else’s existing system as per usual and made up my own from scratch.
The violation typically happens in 2 steps. One 25+ pips stab into the displacement (20 pips from the trigger high / low) for a 45-pip fluctuation maximum proof. Then a pullback / dip back into the Risk Range for a Kiss Goodbye. I circled the adjustors below.
A lot of times you need to wait for a development to occur. If price is now back inside the risk range, what does that trigger in your head?
if (i>0 && (AVG[i]<AVG[i+2] || AVG[i]<AVG[i+1] || AVG[i]>AVG[i-1] || (AVG[i+2]<AVG[i+3] && AVG[i+3]<AVG[i+4]) ) && RSI[i]>RSI[i+2] && RSI[i]>RSI[i+1] && RSI[i]>RSI[i-1] && RSI[i]<upper[i]+2 && RSI[i]>main[i]+2 && Low[i]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i)-70*Point){
ObjectCreate(0,"TLine_1"+i,OBJ_TREND,indicator_window,Time[i],RSI[i],Time[i],105);
ObjectSetInteger(0,"TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
ObjectSet("TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_COLOR,Crimson);
ObjectSet("TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_WIDTH, 7);
ObjectSet("TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_BACK, 1);
////Buy Stop Hedge
ObjectCreate("TLineyy"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI[i]+19);
ObjectSetText("TLineyy"+DoubleToStr(i), "BUY HEDGE @ "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,5,i))+200*Point,4),4), 13, "Impact", Green);
buyhedge = NormalizeDouble(iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,5,i))+200*Point,4);
Roffu[i]=buyhedge;
}
if (i>0 && (((AVG[i]>AVG[i+2] || AVG[i]>AVG[i+1] || (AVG[i+1]<AVG[i-1] && High[i]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i)+30*Point) ) && RSI[i+3]>RSI[i+1] && RSI[i]<RSI[i+2] && RSI[i]<RSI[i+1] && RSI[i]<RSI[i-1] && RSI[i]>lower[i]-2
&& ((RSI[i]<main[i]+2 && High[i]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i)-50*Point) || (RSI[i]<main[i]+1 && High[i]>iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i)-110*Point) || (RSI[i]<main[i] && High[i]<iMA(NULL,0,8,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_OPEN,i)-140*Point))
&& (RSI[i]<30 || RSI[i]<lower[i] ) && Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i))
||
(RSI[i]>lower2[i] && RSI[i+1]<lower2[i+1]))
&& Low[i]<iBands(symbol,0,216,2.5,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_MAIN,i)
&& Low[i]>Low[i+1]+30*Point
&& ((RSI[i+2]<lower2[i+2] && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i)>10) || iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+1)>35)
// && Low[i]>iBands(symbol,0,30,2,0,PRICE_MEDIAN,MODE_LOWER,i)
){
ObjectCreate(0,"TLine_1"+i,OBJ_TREND,indicator_window,Time[i],RSI[i],Time[i],0);
ObjectSetInteger(0,"TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_RAY_RIGHT,false);
ObjectSet("TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_COLOR,Chartreuse);
ObjectSet("TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_WIDTH, 7);
ObjectSet("TLine_1"+i,OBJPROP_BACK, 1);
////Sell Stop Hedge
ObjectCreate("TLineyy"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI[i]-9);
ObjectSetText("TLineyy"+DoubleToStr(i), "BUY HEDGE @ "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,5,i))-200*Point,4),4), 13, "Impact", Crimson);
sellhedge = NormalizeDouble(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,5,i))-200*Point,4);
Roffd[i]=sellhedge;
if (i>0 && RSI[i]<30){
ObjectCreate("Bacardix"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], lower2[i]+80*Point);
ObjectSetText("Bacardix"+DoubleToStr(i), "H @"+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,2,i-1)),4),4), 13, "Impact", Blue);
}
if (RSI[i]>lower2[i] && RSI[i+1]<lower2[i+1] && ((RSI[i+2]<lower2[i+2] && iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i)>10) || iStochastic(symbol,0,60,3,3,MODE_SMA,0,MODE_MAIN,i+1)>35)){
ObjectDelete("TLiney"+DoubleToStr(i+2));
ObjectDelete("TLiney"+DoubleToStr(i+1));
ObjectCreate("TLiney"+DoubleToStr(i), OBJ_TEXT, indicator_window, Time[i], RSI[i]+5);
ObjectSetText("TLiney"+DoubleToStr(i), "MUST GO LONG", 13, "Impact", Green);
}
(where AVG is the 5-sample average of a 14-sample MFI HL2)
You are not going to have a whole lot of use gor the next part if you don’t use MT4, but I add some kitchen language interpretation too to give you some sense of creative data filtering. Symmetry is not the default. Whatever works is.
Examples:
Turning conditions
“2SD” RSI reading (plus minus 2) with absoulute value above 69 / below 15
Squeeze (31 wide) and RSI up to 5 over upper RSI BB
DARK GREEN 2HR MAX BRIEF BUYING BELOW 207L
High above 4H 216 BB 2.5, close back below (Scooter)
Positive acceleration during a nrgative episode (any length)
Max. 2Hrs of negative acceleration during a positive episode
The Highlighted part below is the Dark Green vertical condition.
Now you know where I got the idea for the Roff Trading logo.
Things are evolving still. I tried to cram too much into one post, I know & I’m sorry for that.
Somewhere, over the Brembo.
I’m undependable.
But I am convincible.
This was the Daniella can’t bone me show.
When the Media Ocean was moving to a different floor, they pushed the office printer into the shower. I felt bad for not taking a picture of it to send it to my daughter, saying “Printing in the shower.” I still do.
– You should ask Vince Clakre, he wrote the song, but he recently left the band.
All questions are about the Eur/Usd.
What is a correction? A correction prints an 58+ pips dip resulting in a blue A+T (Acceleration + Thrust).
It is a good entry for a new HH / LL, but remember that a LH / HL may be printed after a capsizing has taken place. An LH, like on the image above (printing the H&S) is the last piece of the upward sturcture, so the new wave structure down started from there. There were no corrections on the way down. Remember this bit.
I ended up with 58 pips for the marker of the Acceleration versus the prior 60. On the image below there is a HL print, and funny enough, 45 pips down from the prior high. The LH above had a 43 pips span (happens to be about the fluctuation maximum of this instrument). Neither reached the crucial 58 (no break out was made).
Every Acceleration would coincide with a 58 highlight. The T however may arrive as a secondary, smaller hump with no correction between the two. Fractal nature.
Notice the 5-wave structure up below had two corrections, therefore the two “AT” prints with no correction between them were an actually larger A and T combo.
What is channeling? It is an episode without corrections. A channeling move is a sustainable move.
On the example above, it ended with a Q print, which is a 200 sample lower low (a thrust) that is outside the 216 sample 2sd BB and inside the 30 sample 2sd BB.
A Red Box is brought on by a more prolonged Acceleration in the wrong direction. Below 2 hours of acceleration upwards with a red base tone.
Below is a Red Box and a Green Box.
So, are we in a channeling move down? If not, a correction is due after the combined, larger A+T.
4-hour U to U or Q to U or U to Q stats for closing
Most importanly I latched onto the 8 EMO like a hawk. Things escalated to the point when I even went into a loop thinking about having to find a protege.
So, thunder, outage, having to walk up 12 floors with my heavy backpack (both lifts down, good thing I did not choose the 17th floor), finding no hot water (boiler needs to be reset too) and a number of light bulbs lit up.
Quickly about Goldie, Silvergate and Scooter.
I measure a fully consolidated charge on the 15-min 48 sample CI above 53.
if (ChoppinessIndex(12*4,i)>53 && ChoppinessIndex(12*4,i+1)<53) break;
weight=(iHigh(symbol,15,i)+iLow(symbol,15,i))/2;
I measure distance probabilities based on the 3-day ATR (starting last day).
The Goldie Locks level is 10 pips shy of the 3-day ATR measured from the consolidation weight.
The Silvergate is 10 pips shy of the 130% ATR measured from the consolidation weight.
My theory is if the Silvergate is hit, the next target is set at Scooter.
Scooter is the 4-hour 216 sample 2.5 sd Bollinger Band. As a complication it may not always be hit, but on the upside it has been bullseye.
If you need to know, the ultimate target is brought on relative to the last impulse wave that made it out of the 14-sample window envelope on the weekly, but it is not the case currently.
So, the bottom indicator.
It is an ATR with pips in plus minus for the last 8 hours & there is a capping at 80 pips and there is a highlight beyond 60 pips.
ExtATRBuffer[i]= -1*(iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,7,i+1))-Low[i])*10000;
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]<-80) ExtATRBuffer[i]=-80;
ExtATRBuffer2[i]=(High[i]-iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,7,i+1)))*10000;
if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]>80) ExtATRBuffer2[i]=80;
if (ExtATRBuffer[i]<-60) ExtATRBuffer3[i]=ExtATRBuffer[i];
else if (ExtATRBuffer2[i]>60) ExtATRBuffer3[i]=ExtATRBuffer2[i];
Think of these highlights as overheating which, if the episode is short (1-2 hours), would likely bring on a reversal, but if it was prolonged, there would be an option of cooling off by a consolidation for the continuation.
I expect price proceeding lower, but the CI has to get above 53 (plotted next to the current price on the margin), which it will do by the open to re-align the new Goldie and Silvergate levels. Silvergate in general should not be hit, you would need to scale out towards it. Only when the market is in Hyper Hyper that it would trample over to meet its Scooter fate in a last hurrah.
I don’t aim for multiple instruments or multiple time frames.
I’ve been talking about divergences, but market may turn without one.
Introducing the extremes. MFI is charted on a 0-100 scale.
If a median price extreme starts at 12.5, I would put the extreme of a typical price at 8.
The plot thus is an 8-ball.
On the image below there is a reminder on the right hand side for a black eight ball -> crossing over the 8 EMO (hourly denomination) -> going to the 240 SMA.
The 8 EMO is the 8-sample EMA of Opens. I usually have it in 2 different colors. Here the 240 is as the middle line of the 240-BB.
See, there is no certainty to these steps timely manner. A black 8-ball may be restrained from crossing over the magenta 8 EMO, like in this example:
And if you go back to the first image, the last RESET was not all in one direction: the 8-EMO was below whilst the 240 SMA was above (which is what made the divergence print).
The main problem with these vertical plots is getting the displacement right. For instance, if I take away the 2-point allowance for the Salmon plots (meaning an RSI-print came within 2-points of the 2 STD band), the first plot would be taken away. Yet if I give too much allowance, I may get too many not-so good signals. The MFI average here is the filter for RSI making the low above the money flow average or not.
There is no exact scienece here, there are not even right conclusions. There are pushes towards a decision that you can live with for it works off of a lot of variables and filters.
I have made this suggestion before that a Weekly E-59 HL2 (in Violet) is a good place to look for a market type switch, especially after 3 clean closes on the new side. Yes, things can be this simple…
…but not always are this clean. A major break up and an immediate RSI2 embedding without any gap fill attemt would be hard to miss clues. Remember those 3 horizontal lines.
Time forward. Other times the clues may still work, but the start may turn out to be sluggish and frustrating. The first conclusion that I would like to draw based on the next image is that 3 weeks of closes on the other side is merely a confirmation that the previous market has ended – a gear shift to neutral.
The second thing is the proof of the pudding. Yes, there are basically no closes above the line afterwards, but what is more important is that the first pullback’s high does not get violated. Now, pay attention to the RSI2. The one with the vertical line and circle is the closest approach of the overbought (87.5). I would call that the beginning of the bear market – gear shift. Even then, the next week makes a higher high and fails it with an engulf, but that rebound swing high remains untouched. It took 19 weeks after crossing the line to call the new market in this example.
The next example is an early bird special.
Let’s call the first E-59 violation a question mark. With the higher high the next week this could be deemed neutral. Pay attention to the drop that followed and was unable to go oversold (12.5) no matter how it tried. The confirmation of the new market was therefore an overbought reading with 3 closes above the E-59, and the best entry was below the low of candle 3, as close as you could get a fill to the E-59.
The incubation on the next one was 5-6 weeks with the neutral confirmation being in place first.
What about now? Back at the big debate zone again. Market is neutral after the 3 red count.
There was an embedding attempt on the upside that failed on the 4th week. There was 120 pips tagged on for a fake out before the engulfing. My preferred outcome here would be the mirror image to leave question for the next market type hanging for longer.
Don’t mind me, I need to jot things down to draw some conclusions and overcome anticipation bias somehow.
What truns price?
MFI Divergence, MFI Coninuation Divergence, MFI Taper* *, Big Bow Divergence and Sudden Volatlity Rise Reversal
in the direction away from and outside the E9D ** outside excessive volatility – price hasn’t just recently popped the Ionosphere
MFI Divergences requrie the presence of a White Line: MFI oversold / overbought Or a crossing over the Stratosphere line. There are two kinds, the Real and the Early Divergences.
The Red, Real Divergence may have a span of 36-54 pips between the start and the end of the divergence.
Another form of a Real Divergence would have a bow in excess of 2/3 of the way between the OS and OB lines.
(Less than 4 pips drop from the swing low, but look at the depth – 66+ read on the bow up!)
The Magenta, Early Divergence may a span of 20-36 pips between the start and the end of the divergence. An Early Divergence can be rounded up to a Real divergence upon a re-visit and add on extra leg.
(20 pips between the Magenta legs)
Respect the reversal divergences as they may have a lasting effect.
An MFI Continuation divergence requires the presence of an MFI Divergence prior for the shoulder reference level to beat.
A succesful MFI Taper (purple) is as powerful and overriding as a Real Divergence. It requires price falling short from the E9D.
A Sudden Volatlity Rise Reversal would have a temporary effect unless accompanied by an MFI divergence. Consider the halfway mark faliure between the Stratosphere and Ionosphere to be a rather potent Volatility Rise Reversal Signal.
This Purple taper was doomed after price popped the Ionosphere line (Red w/ Yellow in it) on the downside. Franly, I should not even have a mark up for this one. Volatility reversal arrows plus Magenta divergence below.
There should be a leg up from where the MFI drops below / exceeds the Magenta Divergences shoulder marked up by the interrupted line in the indicator window.
Gap to nearby the lower end – cover your directional holdings) at once – scale back in inside the structure in the same direction for up to the middle axle.
Ira always says that a higher high and a lower low is not a trend. There would be a spectacular showing very soon. Weekend incoming.
Obviously, the favored direction would be the continuation of the last move.
I would look at the 14-sample 2.0 std dev window envelope to exit the next leg (either a stall at 1.0464-54 – cyan leg up) or at the 3.5 std dev window envelope at 1.0314 (yellow leg up)
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