It is clear by now that we are gunning for the low @ 1.0640.
Pro volume blocks this week.
The scope according to the Tie Machine has its far end between 1.0627 & 1.0617.
The market had moderated to unqualified due to sample size, and since there is no P/NR or W3Far end hit, your sell zone is from 1.0795 (F2++) to 1.0812 (F3-), see above. This zone coincides perfectly with the Money Flow reversal zone.
A move beyond the E-9 would mark the end of Wave 4. You could have 6-8 trading days before re-connecting with the E-9 afterwards, which happens to be around the February Opex on the 16th.
F2 prints in blue and a final divergence for good measure also in blue.
The money flow peak is finally impersonating an impression.
The reversal zone has printed. Price is being kept from returning to the E-9.
Orange line. The top is near. In auto trading shorting is always more underwhelming. This is where you need to scale and outlast.
On the way down once 1.0691 gets called in, the trip is guaranteed to 1.0655, and who knows, maybe the money flow will invent a new reversal zone by then. The end of Wave 1 down should be spectacuar.
You don’t want any heart ache here… or angina. Be ruthless.
Tonicio Bel Dero is arriving with the Swahili Comet only to find out that Vera Cruz left for Syracuze. Stay auto tuned.
You know from me that the most important aspect of the correction is having to do their time.
There is something more to know, and that is the objective: it is to get a feel for the lid on the counter directional volatility.
An F0 market can correct back to find if it can now upgrade itself to an F1 (crack 4).
An F1 market can correct back to find out if there are stil choking at F1 or an upgrade to an F2 (crack 5) is possible.
As Heppner put it: find you’re here / find you’re gone.
From final divergence to the municipal trench. The market remains in the qualified bear mode. CounterForce62 would be available for $99.
There were 3 Full Discharges (have enough imagination that the quick fake out mattered as much), so the market had a chance to make a move back up to F2 resistance.
F2 was missed by a single pip.
According to Nick Rhodes, the last daily important level was 1.0775 (this move is the back test), and there is nothing till 1.05155. Of course, new levels can be made.
I have yet to make a portable version of Nick Rhodes for a free download. The daily stochastic is in need of a lower low higher stoch divergence.
You can bet your sweet ass that the market is going to dip below the Green Bumper Line before printing a powder box & a swing low.
An F minus 1 market is a parabolic market. It has to be downgraded to an F zero market for a momentum divergence to reverse price. This means hitting the upper 30-sample 30-minute BB.
There has not been a correction since the big drop.
Here’s what I have on my cell for an F minus 1 / F0 markets as a reminder:
F-1: target W3 close end minus 5 or beyond the Money Flow Droop line by 16 pips. There may be 3 waves interrupted by closing back beyond the 8EMO. F-1 does not end in a Flash Gordon.
An F-1 market ends in a reversal that is started by two closes on the other side of the S30, confirmed by a 40+ pip counter volatility print if these two do not coincide.
An F0 market ends in a Flash Gordon momentum divergence.
Here are the 3 correction possibilities:
1. Loneliness – lasts 14-16 hours, only by the end making it back beyond the hourly S-30.
2. Disregard – lasts 21-23 hours, it should hit the upper 30-sample Hourly BB.
I think you are in the 2nd hour of the correction. The 15-Min ATR Targets can be downloaded now from the Pro Tools page.
Goldilocks level was hit for a relief.
In case the Money Flow droop / beat happens first, here are the levels:
Briefly you could see a print between 1.07 and 1.069. This would certainly be at the required 2.8x flucuation maximum stretch from the mean to finish off Wave 1 down.
A Wave 2 up would have to follow at a minumum back beyond the E-414H (30 min).
I like René, although the Balke lends to Hungarian “Kétbalkezes”, which means two left handed, and so it tickles a bit.
He was blaming the slippage for his stop out.
This is what auto trading enthusiasts don’t appreciate well enough. The slippage does not go up to 36 pips. The spread does. The slippage actually pretty consistent at 3 points.
In fact, you yourself allow for 3-points slippage when posting the order, otherwise there would be no fill. In bold.
int ticket=OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUY,1,price,3,stoploss,takeprofit,"My order",16384,0,clrGreen);
slippage [in] Maximum price slippage for buy or sell orders.
What you need to concentrate on is the spr in the picture (made with my Broker Auditor), the spread. When the market becomes thin (liquidity withdrawn), the base spread widens and this gets exaggerated by the person at the broker cranking up the multiplier. The largest print I have seen with my broker was 34 pips, but it often hits 20 pips in pre-market as well as at the server midnight into the early hours, which is already a 200x multiplier cosidering that the raw spread is usually 1 or 2 points, not pips. This is the one element that can kill any auto trading routine, since you would have to have a stop loss, and if you are still in the trade during the expansion, you can get knocked out for a maximum volunteered loss.
My answer is multiple layers of protection and no stop losses, but I will expand on this matter later.
Now, I am not competing and would never consider a scammer “founded account” third party demo crap, my daily gain was 4.45% (versus his auto result of 3.2%) trading manually the same event with the one and only instrument I am interested in.
As it turns out, the “you can only buy at the ask, but can only sell at the bid” concept is too difficult for him. Well, I tried.
Dottir of course means daugther in icelandic. We used to have one regular customer whos name ended in “Dottir” and she used to order her breakfast bacon “cremated”. Some word of choice.
There were those 2 embarassed / embarrassada black, dotted stomachs that would each come with 55+10% chance that the low was made. On the second print 130%. Rather good odds.
I know, I know, papiamento, but that’s portugese based Creole, and is not the subject of this article.
One question that nobody ever asks is what is a daily Wave 1 doing.
I like to quantify things, so I’m a spare time quant. The lack of the ability to quantify things by the way is what deems Elliott Wave a pseudo science.
A Wave 1, as it turns out is meant to achieve a bend on the E-9 by achieving a greater than 2.8x fluctuation maximum from it (it sets an angle to work with). It is likely going to get outside the 30-sample HL2 Bollinger in the process, it is likely going to end up over or close to the other end of the E-207 band, it is likely going to accomplish this with an Echo wave and it is surely going to make an RSI2 HL2 print within the last 8%.
A 2.8x stretch is 108-pips (a fluctuation maximum is 38.4 pips for measuring purposes) measured from the edge of the E-414 30-minute band.
What was price doing before starting a Wave 1 down after calling a Wave 5 up? It was consolidating strength for the next move. In terms of structure – there wasn’t any. I know, your EW having to label up everything mind just got blown to shreds. No, no Santa either.
During the rest & re–calibration there would likely be a push somewhere that would be used as a reference to compare the Echo wave to.
A motive wave has an ABCDE labeling instead of the impulse 1-2-3-4-5. Notice how the second wave does not get anywhere near the minimum target of the red E-9.
Two more tips
#1: spotting the head divergence and the right shoulder with the help of an RSI2 on the hourly
#2: 356iL Test A Rose – the brown line with the arrows is the S-356 on the hourly
The chart does not have a parabolic look because the broker I’m with has a 100-lot max size limitation. The test would have ended up with an over 10 million print with another broker that allows size to 2000 lots, like Squared Financial (the max leverage there is 300).
I am going to make this available at $499 per .ex4
Trading size is calculated relative to the account size.
Currently there’s only one parameter (chosing longs only / shorts only / both is a given), a divider (“/4”) that is a bit of size muter to make the first mile with less of a stress. Put it at /10 and the size would be less. Put it at one and you are going with all that a 1:500 leverage would manage.
All positions have stop losses (and targets) and there are two different trail stops in place for the long (5/6th of distance travelled) and the short side (4/5th of distance travelled) starting at being in 25 pips in gains.
There are a maxiumum of 2 longs and 2 shorts that could be open at any given time.
The opening signals are some of my best signals (in 14 years) and they are further back tested. An eclectic mix of 5 different prompts and there are daily filters to hold back some of the at market opens.
The stop losses are 40 pips out for the 2 longs and 25 and 35 pips out for the two shorts. These are not changeable currently and I do not intend to make the two sides even.
Also, I am not interested in runnig it on any other instrument that I do not have good statistical knowledge of.
Try it on 1k and let it go to 300k. Don’t ever touch it. Isn’t that the idea behind fully automated trading?
Add it to your personal trading account, choose a manageable size divider (i.e. /6), and let the rutine grab opportunities that you would have missed (hybrid trading).
I carried over the at market open, the size boost, but now I’m down to maximum 1 open position per side, ditched all the daily filters and have only a 3 day ATR for a hold back, the short / long opening triggers are for once symmetrical, consolidation/fractal energy based and thus almost everything is different from the Municipal Trader.
I had a feeling that it may work alright, but this actually blew my mind. The Mick Jagger motive is most certainly a new thing.
My thinking after seeing overwhelming success with the longs is that I may let both of these roam longs only (one with stop losses, one without) while I’d be manually trading the downside.
2 yrs backtest (took 4 hours to complete), longs only, max drawdown: 7.79%>
My only ever routine that I made as is, in one go and felt no need to improving on any of the filters. Getting a Z2 G9 next week.
I’m thinking about making a shop page with some professional tools for sale. Besides CounterForce62, the Tie Machine would have to be made available – the spinner plot is incorporated in it, which is a money flow extreme plot.
The way it works: once price closed below the deep pink low, it should not have made it back beyond the middle of the spinner(s) the 1.0831-1.0835 (blue) zone; when it was re-visited, they grabbed the opportunity and bought in.
You know me by now, the most important stuff is in blue or yellow.
Coming back to F2 is not a big deal, a new leg may start from here, and as you can see the W3 limit zone is currently 1.0779-1.0761.
That’s where I think Wave 1 would print its end, at 2.8x stretch from the E-9 (gray inverse numbers top left) before coming back right here or a bit higher to start Wave 3 down.
I share most of my tools for free, only a handful would cost money. I want to provide the choice for your voting money to either give to line drawing cowboys whom would point in both directions, and even give you the wrong bias, i.e.:
…or obtain true understanding of what is happening, where and how.
Planning to do some back testing over the weekend for some auto trading ideas I have.
ForexFore - Internals, indicators, algorithmic trading 