I don’t aim for multiple instruments or multiple time frames.
I’ve been talking about divergences, but market may turn without one.
Introducing the extremes. MFI is charted on a 0-100 scale.
If a median price extreme starts at 12.5, I would put the extreme of a typical price at 8.
The plot thus is an 8-ball.
On the image below there is a reminder on the right hand side for a black eight ball -> crossing over the 8 EMO (hourly denomination) -> going to the 240 SMA.
The 8 EMO is the 8-sample EMA of Opens. I usually have it in 2 different colors. Here the 240 is as the middle line of the 240-BB.
See, there is no certainty to these steps timely manner. A black 8-ball may be restrained from crossing over the magenta 8 EMO, like in this example:
And if you go back to the first image, the last RESET was not all in one direction: the 8-EMO was below whilst the 240 SMA was above (which is what made the divergence print).
The main problem with these vertical plots is getting the displacement right. For instance, if I take away the 2-point allowance for the Salmon plots (meaning an RSI-print came within 2-points of the 2 STD band), the first plot would be taken away. Yet if I give too much allowance, I may get too many not-so good signals. The MFI average here is the filter for RSI making the low above the money flow average or not.
There is no exact scienece here, there are not even right conclusions. There are pushes towards a decision that you can live with for it works off of a lot of variables and filters.
I have made this suggestion before that a Weekly E-59 HL2 (in Violet) is a good place to look for a market type switch, especially after 3 clean closes on the new side. Yes, things can be this simple…
…but not always are this clean. A major break up and an immediate RSI2 embedding without any gap fill attemt would be hard to miss clues. Remember those 3 horizontal lines.
Time forward. Other times the clues may still work, but the start may turn out to be sluggish and frustrating. The first conclusion that I would like to draw based on the next image is that 3 weeks of closes on the other side is merely a confirmation that the previous market has ended – a gear shift to neutral.
The second thing is the proof of the pudding. Yes, there are basically no closes above the line afterwards, but what is more important is that the first pullback’s high does not get violated. Now, pay attention to the RSI2. The one with the vertical line and circle is the closest approach of the overbought (87.5). I would call that the beginning of the bear market – gear shift. Even then, the next week makes a higher high and fails it with an engulf, but that rebound swing high remains untouched. It took 19 weeks after crossing the line to call the new market in this example.
The next example is an early bird special.
Let’s call the first E-59 violation a question mark. With the higher high the next week this could be deemed neutral. Pay attention to the drop that followed and was unable to go oversold (12.5) no matter how it tried. The confirmation of the new market was therefore an overbought reading with 3 closes above the E-59, and the best entry was below the low of candle 3, as close as you could get a fill to the E-59.
The incubation on the next one was 5-6 weeks with the neutral confirmation being in place first.
What about now? Back at the big debate zone again. Market is neutral after the 3 red count.
There was an embedding attempt on the upside that failed on the 4th week. There was 120 pips tagged on for a fake out before the engulfing. My preferred outcome here would be the mirror image to leave question for the next market type hanging for longer.
Don’t mind me, I need to jot things down to draw some conclusions and overcome anticipation bias somehow.
What truns price?
MFI Divergence, MFI Coninuation Divergence, MFI Taper* *, Big Bow Divergence and Sudden Volatlity Rise Reversal
in the direction away from and outside the E9D ** outside excessive volatility – price hasn’t just recently popped the Ionosphere
MFI Divergences requrie the presence of a White Line: MFI oversold / overbought Or a crossing over the Stratosphere line. There are two kinds, the Real and the Early Divergences.
The Red, Real Divergence may have a span of 36-54 pips between the start and the end of the divergence.
Another form of a Real Divergence would have a bow in excess of 2/3 of the way between the OS and OB lines.
(Less than 4 pips drop from the swing low, but look at the depth – 66+ read on the bow up!)
The Magenta, Early Divergence may a span of 20-36 pips between the start and the end of the divergence. An Early Divergence can be rounded up to a Real divergence upon a re-visit and add on extra leg.
(20 pips between the Magenta legs)
Respect the reversal divergences as they may have a lasting effect.
An MFI Continuation divergence requires the presence of an MFI Divergence prior for the shoulder reference level to beat.
A succesful MFI Taper (purple) is as powerful and overriding as a Real Divergence. It requires price falling short from the E9D.
A Sudden Volatlity Rise Reversal would have a temporary effect unless accompanied by an MFI divergence. Consider the halfway mark faliure between the Stratosphere and Ionosphere to be a rather potent Volatility Rise Reversal Signal.
This Purple taper was doomed after price popped the Ionosphere line (Red w/ Yellow in it) on the downside. Franly, I should not even have a mark up for this one. Volatility reversal arrows plus Magenta divergence below.
There should be a leg up from where the MFI drops below / exceeds the Magenta Divergences shoulder marked up by the interrupted line in the indicator window.
Gap to nearby the lower end – cover your directional holdings) at once – scale back in inside the structure in the same direction for up to the middle axle.
Ira always says that a higher high and a lower low is not a trend. There would be a spectacular showing very soon. Weekend incoming.
Obviously, the favored direction would be the continuation of the last move.
I would look at the 14-sample 2.0 std dev window envelope to exit the next leg (either a stall at 1.0464-54 – cyan leg up) or at the 3.5 std dev window envelope at 1.0314 (yellow leg up)
First question: has there been an end of wave weekly swing low lately (in 20 weeks) that did not come off of the 14-sample Window Envelope?
(see arrows)
Second question: is a 38.9 stochacstic reading close enough to 40 to be calling a continuation divergence?
If so, then the C leg merely started a few days back. The Energy curve is printing the first hump, that preceeds the Push and the Echo. I have no name for it yet, but measuring leg was used before, so maybe measuring hump. Both the Push and the Echo would have to arrive with incrementally higher energy hunches, the Push – as mentioned prior – would print a Stab (a quick, linear move appearing as an energy plummet – red verticals) and the Echo would arrive even later with the Desperato / desperate reach (usually a lower low / higher high – green vertical) before this whole ABC structure would come to an end.
Now, Money Flow affairs.
After the Euro peak was mode, the first money flow rebound I marked up in white. I did not quite know what to do with it at the time. I did notice that when money flow had exceeded this reading, that was a perfect continuation entry (red block).
Here we are again with the white bag above my door, money flow rapidly approaching the continuation level. Stochastic is embedded oversold. Notice that the swing high and the money flow high did not coincide, and a lower high could easily show a more overbought level.
37% of the people are net short. I am one of them.
Now that my turout has dropped to 5 views per post, I am determined to finish the destruction, and get it down to one single view.
Oh, I have the master plan for this one.
If options have Greeks, trading has Germans.
A quick word about Walls, Berlin or not.
3 walls in one direction, 2 in the other, which is the way of progression?
The white line in the Stratosphere. The 45-pip (fluctuation maximum) displacement of the E-32 as per Hourly.
The first reach outside for a big grab of nothing is the Luft.
The second, as the old German wisdom holds it, is the Luftwaffe, as where there is Luft, the Luftwaffe wouldn’t be far.
The third one is Concorde as to commemorate the British and the French.
You see, I always thought that if there would be only 2 men left on the planet, one would be German and the other one would be Japanese. You would need to truly believe in your superiority to give you the extra edge. No, being “God’s chosen people” would lot qualify, this is not upto voting.
So I started my own Eurasian Race. She goes by Zulfen Tralfen Zulfie as her German name and Zuflasyei Shusmichiro by the Japanese. With this sneaky twist she can infiltrate these people by their flank, and it is going to be a whole lot easier for her to assimilate. What’s more she would get to pick between the two guys standing. 50% chance of succeeding every time.
(The World’s Laziest Sex Tourist)
Ok, let’s proceed from where I left off last time.
We have a valid opening move to the downside, yet every move comes to an end.
A Push contains the Stab (or Stahl) and the Echo episode contains the Desperato (Deperate effort to live up to the once great nation).
Once this sequence has sailed (on a U-Boat), the Daily chart would print either a continuation divergence or a counter P-E sequence resulting in a sideways / corrective pattern.
If you look back on the history prior, you will find that for a continuation you would either need the the 18-sample stochastic to print an 88+ reading or the E-50 ribbon would be above the 2.5 std Deviation BB top, whic would cap the move. The latter does not happen often at all, certainly not likely at the beginning of a move, see the Teal ovals below.
The point is that I think you should be looking for an 80+ stochastic print, since the upper BB would not dip below the E-50 ribbon for at least a few weeks.
Whoever controls the heartland controls the world. The US blew up the gas pipe to sabotage the birth of a counterweight.
I started out my trading journey in the field of Fractal Energies.
I guess you can say now that I am back to my fruits.
Too many Ys in this one.
Every route ended up leading to the same path.
Measuring leg & divergent leg / zero & mastodon / push & echo were of the same coin all along.
The conclusion had to be the same too. The market has to get in a higher state of charge before holding enough energy to make a change (for once in my life), step on the man in the mirror and be able to feel real good about it.
This divergence can only be measured between two well chosen reference points.
Echo thus is set at a point in space time where the inability can finally be overcome by ability.
Price/Earnings = LED Ceppelin
CiP < CiE
Why 12 sample? Because it is 7 + 5 and also 48 /4.
Don’t be oblivious to the fact that you are oblivious to facts.
Goldman Sachs, and has always Sached.
Completely out of content here, just hissing and pissing.
Yeah, I’ve said it all in the 4×3 entry. It is going to crash back down after the 360-370 pips rally, right where price is at on the 3rd week of March before proceeding lower.
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